2015-16 International Free Agency Thread

[Guest]

How the hell is he only getting 4.25M?

 

Price tags in Venezuela have gone down due to the turmoil in the country. Also, some of the big teams are out next year. The Red Sox were able to sign a few top 30 prospects out of Venezuela despite being capped this year because of that.

[Guest]

Chicago Cubs: Technically, the Cubs are not over their pool yet, since they haven’t signed their big-ticket international players to official contracts. However, with so many deals in place, they’re going well over their bonus pool. Once Aramis Ademan, Yonathan Perlaza, Miguel Amaya, Jonathan Sierra and Christopher Martinez along with others all officially sign, the Cubs are likely going to end up spending more money on 16-year-old July 2 prospects than any team in baseball, including the Dodgers. The Cubs did make one small trade, picking up a $149,700 slot value from the Angels along with lefthander Manuel Rondon in exchange for catcher Rafael Lopez, so we might see them acquire more slot values this month to lighten their overage tax.

[sontensei]

If they are going all in I hope Julio signs!!!

[davell]

Anderson Amarista, a projected Cubs signee, went to the Rockies for 600k.

 

To my knowledge, there's still not been any press release of any Cubs IFA signings.

[CubsWin]

Anderson Amarista, a projected Cubs signee, went to the Rockies for 600k.

 

To my knowledge, there's still not been any press release of any Cubs IFA signings.

I can't remember an IFA signing period where nothing has been announced this late in the process. I have to believe there's some sort of Epstein/Hoyer strategy behind it.

 

I know many of us, myself included, have suggested the Cubs forgo going over the limit this period so that they have less competition next year as well as a lesser pool amount making it more advantageous to exceed the limit at that time rather than when you actually have a decent pool amount to spend. The main arguments against this were that the Cubs would be burning a lot of bridges by backing out of the deals they've made, that there might be an IFA draft by next season, and that the big prize, Kevin Maitan, was rumored to already have an agreement with the Braves.

 

1. I think the league would have announced by now if an IFA draft was coming as soon as 2016.

 

2. Other prospects have come to light, Cubans mostly, that are highly touted (many thought to be clearly better than what the Cubs would be getting this season) but because of some rule can't be signed until next year.

 

3. I don't really buy the burning bridges thing. If the Cubs do back out of a lot of their deals and keep their powder dry this year, they'll go all out next year. Top prospects, even the ones trained by the same guys who may have gotten burned this year, would be stupid to turn down the biggest offer if it's by the Cubs. Plus, the draft will be instituted soon, and dealing with these "representatives" will become less important.

 

4. Lastly, we've seen assumed "deals" fall apart last minute this year already. The Giants signed Lucious Fox "away" from the Dodgers who were also rumored to be the leader to get Eddy Julio Martinez yet he's still unsigned. Maitan is still on the market until he signs on the line which is dotted and that hasn't happened yet.

 

Interesting...

[davell]

There's definitely strategy involved. But it's got a zero chance of backing out of the commitments. It's likely due to us buying at the deadline and post dating these guys until later to give us more money currently for trading. I think they usually just have a couple of IFA announcements anyway. Cash flow is my honest guess here, staggering these guys and hopefully more out a bit.

 

Fox wasn't an IFA until extremely late in the process, he didn't back out of anything, by the way. Had a disagreement of "he said, she said" type of confusion, it pissed off his camp and he went in a different direction.

 

The handlers are way too important to piss off and change directions on, in all honesty. They're getting you private looks at these guys based on trust and you'd lose too many of them by trying something like that and you need all the looks you can get on kids of this age. It's not just Maitan that's gone next year either already. 3 of the top 5, tons more behind them, are already spoken for. As for the Cubans, there's some pop up guys that have defected that are supposedly very intriguing, but it doesn't seem to be any better than the guys that haven't been cleared yet for this period.

 

As for EJM, my guess is he's waiting until after the trade deadline to sign, as some teams likely will be able to make him a firm offer then that they can't right now because of budgets depending on their deadline moves.

[Guest]

3. I don't really buy the burning bridges thing. If the Cubs do back out of a lot of their deals and keep their powder dry this year, they'll go all out next year. Top prospects, even the ones trained by the same guys who may have gotten burned this year, would be stupid to turn down the biggest offer if it's by the Cubs. Plus, the draft will be instituted soon, and dealing with these "representatives" will become less important.

 

No, you can't burn bridges and ruin relationships with the guys who handle all players. The Yankees got a lot of crap for backing out of a deal last year and Ben Badler has mentioned before it's actually something. With the draft, this might be less important but your strategy involves one more IFA signing period.

 

4. Lastly, we've seen assumed "deals" fall apart last minute this year already. The Giants signed Lucious Fox "away" from the Dodgers who were also rumored to be the leader to get Eddy Julio Martinez yet he's still unsigned. Maitan is still on the market until he signs on the line which is dotted and that hasn't happened yet.

 

Interesting...

 

Kiley McDaniel readily admitted he when he predicted Fox to the Dodgers that it was just a guess. As davell said, Fox was granted free agency late in the game so guys like Badler, McDaniel and Sanchez who are nearly 100% in their signing predictions didn't have as good a chance to work their sources.

[Guest]

3. I don't really buy the burning bridges thing. If the Cubs do back out of a lot of their deals and keep their powder dry this year, they'll go all out next year. Top prospects, even the ones trained by the same guys who may have gotten burned this year, would be stupid to turn down the biggest offer if it's by the Cubs. Plus, the draft will be instituted soon, and dealing with these "representatives" will become less important.

 

No, you can't burn bridges and ruin relationships with the guys who handle all players. The Yankees got a lot of crap for backing out of a deal last year and Ben Badler has mentioned before it's actually something. With the draft, this might be less important but your strategy involves one more IFA signing period.

 

To play devil's advocate, if they still are over the penalty regardless(are they?) and they believe an International Draft is coming by 2017, does it matter all that much?

[davell]

I don't think that the draft would eliminate handlers. These are dirt poor families that give their trust to the trainers for 10-20% of the eventual signing bonus. The handler takes over these kids at 12-13 years old and develops them from there, usually securing the deal far in advance obviously.

 

It'd be like the MLB draft in lots of ways-The kids would still receive many more looks by teams that are on great terms with the handlers. Plus, it'd work the same way where trainers would be setting prices or just flat out telling teams not to draft their kids.

 

It's going to be extremely complicated to implement a draft down there. They may try to, but if its not an utter disaster/joke I'll be shocked. And that's even if you've got smart guys in charge doing the best they possibly can.

[sontensei]

I can't wait till they include all international prospects in the draft process. I think it would level the playing field and teams like the Dodgers wouldn't be able to go out an buy a team from Cuba!

[CubsWin]

There's definitely strategy involved. But it's got a zero chance of backing out of the commitments. It's likely due to us buying at the deadline and post dating these guys until later to give us more money currently for trading. I think they usually just have a couple of IFA announcements anyway. Cash flow is my honest guess here, staggering these guys and hopefully more out a bit.

Yeah, that was the other possibility that clearly I don't want it to be.

 

They already didn't sign a guy that they were reported to have an agreement with in Amarista. That got me thinking...and hoping. Don't know the story behind that though. Well, there goes that theory.

 

The Cubs scouts have been doing a very good job lately. Sometimes the big name guys are high ceiling but low floor. It seems like the guys the Cubs are rumored to be signing all have a solid floor. Perhaps that's where their emphasis is. With players this young, present baseball ability shows an aptitude for the game that other, more raw prospects might not every acquire.

 

Though probably more talented than many of the guys the Cubs will get this signing period (he was ranked 2nd overall), Gleyber Torres' quick rise likely had a lot to do with his present baseball ability and "polish". Maybe that's the direction the Cubs are going with this class. Or maybe they just plain lost out on all the top end talent.

[davell]

My honest fear with this class(again, I do think there'll be more than the 7 we've seen as signed) is that we added guys who were thought of more highly then they are now.....

 

Meaning again, this group(at least some of them) have been signed for well over a year(committed anyway) and their stock has dropped since that time.

 

That said though, a bunch of these kids quit going to showcases or show up and go at half speed to keep from risking injury and their already agreed upon payday.(kind of like getting early commits in college basketball at times-it seems those guys drop in rankings very quickly often)

 

I've always thought of this as a numbers game at this age moreso than grabbing a few high ranked guys. Especially at this age.

 

I just want the rest of the guys we're rumored with to sign and to get one of Gutierrez, Ruiz, or Sierra(preferred in that order). EJM would be icing on the cake, but I'd prefer Gutierrez or Ruiz to him based on what our needs are and the differing scouting reports on him as it is.

[CubsWin]

My honest fear with this class(again, I do think there'll be more than the 7 we've seen as signed) is that we added guys who were thought of more highly then they are now.....

 

Meaning again, this group(at least some of them) have been signed for well over a year(committed anyway) and their stock has dropped since that time.

 

That said though, a bunch of these kids quit going to showcases or show up and go at half speed to keep from risking injury and their already agreed upon payday.(kind of like getting early commits in college basketball at times-it seems those guys drop in rankings very quickly often)

 

I've always thought of this as a numbers game at this age moreso than grabbing a few high ranked guys. Especially at this age.

 

I just want the rest of the guys we're rumored with to sign and to get one of Gutierrez, Ruiz, or Sierra(preferred in that order). EJM would be icing on the cake, but I'd prefer Gutierrez or Ruiz to him based on what our needs are and the differing scouting reports on him as it is.

Thanks for your insights, davell.

 

As of now, the Cubs have reportedly come to agreements with 4 IFAs.

 

SS Aramis Ademan

SS Yonthan Perlaza

C Miguel Amaya

3B Christopher Martinez

 

Adding Cubans Vladimir Gutierrez, 19, RHP and Norge Ruiz, 21, RHP would round out that list nicely. I guess there's hope for this class yet... :wink:

[Guest]

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[Guest]

20-year old Cuban defector Randy Arozarena should be a free agent in the next few months. He has first round talent.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/randy-arozarena-highlight-video/

[davell]

I know this is total speculation on my end, but it seems like if EJM was as good as it appeared at the outset, that 1) he'd have signed by now or 2) there'd be a ton more attention being put on him in the media than there has been.

 

My guess is Badler's report was closer to the truth on him. Solid prospect, nothing special though, and teams have adjusted their thinking on him rather drastically since he's been seen recently.

 

I was kind of thinking maybe there was a team or two waiting closer to the deadline to determine if they were buying or selling, that were stringing him along in case they possibly had more cash. But the fact he's getting so little coverage in comparison to the other high profile Cubans, makes me think his value has been shown to be less than expected.

 

Really looking forward to the reports on Sierra though. It seems like Gutierrez and him have more upside than Ruiz. But I wouldn't turn my nose up on any of them obviously.

[davell]

@JesseSanchezMLB: Cuban OF Eddy Julio Martinez held an open showcase for teams in DR. LAD, ATL, SF, CWS, CIN, SEA, Cubs among teams. http://t.co/vdNjIcQkdy

 

@JesseSanchezMLB: Cuban market is booming. Some players have become eligible to sign & others are in different points in the process since EJM became eligible

 

@JesseSanchezMLB: Eddy Martinez is still considered a top prospect. He now has competition & clubs are evaluating as many players as possible before deciding.

[davell]

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/143088744/eddy-julio-martinez-leads-unsigned-cuban-stars

[davell]

By the way, really getting optimistic about coming out of this Cuban market with a solid(not Dodgeresque) showing. We'll be able to put some or most of the money on to the following calendar years payroll easily now.

[davell]

http://www.cubaheadlines.com/2015/02/25/p6/rookies-of-cuban-baseball.html

 

This is definitely worth reading if for nothing else- some of the translations are funny. At any rate, there's writeups on a few of these guys we've not heard anything at all about that have evidently defected(are on Sanchez' list) and it gives at least some semblance of what they've got(or not, depending on the translations)

[jersey cubs fan]

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[Guest]

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http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2015/08/17/0200000000AEN20150817006200315.html?input=www.tweeter.com

[Little Slide Rooter]

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http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2015/08/17/0200000000AEN20150817006200315.html?input=www.tweeter.com

 

Choo Shin-soo is my biggest role model," Kwon said. "I think we're also a similar type of hitter. I want to be like him."

 

How come he doesn't want to be like Nick Markakis? Or Jason Heyward? Or Carlos Gomez? Or Nori Aoki? Racist.

[BrockLanders]

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[davell]

Just put it into the Cuban market now.