2015-16 International Free Agency Thread

[Guest]

Kiley McDaniel[/url]"]I already mentioned the Cubs as one of multiple teams expected to spend well past their bonus pool starting on July 2nd, 2015.  I had heard rumors of other clubs planning to get in the act when I wrote that, but the group keeps growing with each call I make, so I decided to survey the industry and see where we stand.  After surveying about a dozen international sources, here are the 11 clubs that scouts either are sure, pretty sure or at least very suspicious will be spending past their bonus pool, ranked in order of likelihood:

 

 

Almost Definitely (3): Cubs, Blue Jays, Phillies

Expected/Likely (4): Rangers, Padres, Dodgers, Diamondbacks

Possible/Rumored (4): Braves, Nationals, Royals, Twins

 

...

 

While last year’s group was reasonably clear at this time, the multitude of teams circling the strategy this year makes it harder to predict.  Expecting a club to go over their pool usually means they are coordinating multiple signings, lining up secondary options, getting multiple high-level scouts not normally in the international realm involved, etc. It’s not that hard for rival clubs to notice these things, and pick up gossip from various agents, trainers, friends and family.

 

The problem is that with this many teams in this mix, it makes for quite a margin of error.  One or two players agreeing to a verbal deal can end another club’s pursuit of the overall strategy, once their top option is off the board.  So, look at this more of a snapshot during a horse race than a done deal.  Of course, the whole thing could be upended by Moncada doing something other than what is expected: signing with the Red Sox or Yankees in the next few months (more on Moncada here).

[Guest]

@JesseSanchezMLB: Sources: Cuban INF prospect Yoan Moncada still waiting on OFAC clearance & most expect him to start private workouts within next two weeks.

[Guest]

This is kinda nuts

 

https://sports.vice.com/article/the-weirdest-cuban-baseball-defector-story-youll-ever-read

[jersey cubs fan]

FYI

More on Moncada's strange defection: https://sports.vice.com/article/the-weirdest-cuban-baseball-defector-story-youll-ever-read

 

Apparently Bobby Brownlie works for Scott Boras.

[CubsWin]

Some nice video of Moncada.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/new-video-analysis-yoan-moncada/

[Guest]

i want him so bad

 

would be sweet to get one more awesome blue chip prospect before we rule the world forever

[Guest]

@kileymcd: As I hinted in Oct http://t.co/HMJwL0kOBG intl sources expect 16 y/o Vlad Guerrero Jr to sign July 2 w/TOR for $3.2M https://t.co/nZqKJUBjGC

[Guest]

i want him so bad

 

would be sweet to get one more awesome blue chip prospect before we rule the world forever

Yankees are going to give him YES proceeds for 2015

[Guest]

Take your time, OFAC.

 

@JesseSanchezMLB: Multiple sources tell me Yoan Moncada is still waiting on OFAC clearance. Private workouts expected this month. #Cuba

[davell]

Yeah, we're going to need some help here. For those that didn't see, Kiley called the Yankees and Red Sox heavy favorites for him yesterday on twitter.

[Clem Fandango]

Not speaking from a lot of knowledge here, I'm a little rusty on the subject, but I read somewhere where it was talking about Vlad Jr. that many teams will come to verbal agreements long before they're declared eligible which MLB frowns upon but it's commonplace and there's nothing they can do to stop it. If the Cubs approached Moncada's representation and convinced them enough that if they waited until they were able to spend on him that they'd blow the competition out of the water, do you think they'd do so considering the Red Sox and Yankees would be out of that competition (if I interpreted some of the articles correctly)? Obviously the Red Sox and Yankees are huge teams that any young player would want to play for, but the Cubs are too and having Soler has to have some sort of positive advantage for the Cubs to sell him on.

 

Any chance they could wait it out, even if he's declared before the Cubs could spend on him? OR do they not miss on the chance to get the Red Sox and Yankees into a bidding war, even if the Cubs convince them that they'd spend more than they would?

[davell]

Sure, that's probably the most feasible "hope" for the Cubs. If he gets cleared remotely soon, the Cubs would have to offer him incentive to hold off on signing. How much would that be on top of what the leading bid for signing now actually be?

 

I'd think it'd be a fairly sizable sum personally, as by waiting on us, he'd be punting a large portion of 2015. Couple that with the fact we've got lots of young talent that plays the IF, he's going to find better fits from that standpoint too. Plus, I have very serious doubt that PTR has an extra 80-100 mill he can spend all at once. Because that's the case here, there's no 40 man spots with 6 to 8 year deals here. It's all a signing bonus and the subsequent penalty. I'd love to get the guy, but I have never thought we had much of a shot.

[Clem Fandango]

Read a blurb on Rotoworld about how he was expected to sign a $30-$40 mil deal and I thought that seemed wildly off because of the recent signings of Tomas and Abreu and the like. Are they projecting that low of a figure thought because he's young and is subject to the spending guidelines and rules? Like if he signed a contract that big would it have to be a signing bonus that gives him all that money? Not clear on the international spending regulations all that much. Isn't there a rule that says if an IFA is past a certain age they are unrestricted free agents, but if they are not they are subject to the spending rules?

[Guest]

Read a blurb on Rotoworld about how he was expected to sign a $30-$40 mil deal and I thought that seemed wildly off because of the recent signings of Tomas and Abreu and the like. Are they projecting that low of a figure thought because he's young and is subject to the spending guidelines and rules? Like if he signed a contract that big would it have to be a signing bonus that gives him all that money? Not clear on the international spending regulations all that much. Isn't there a rule that says if an IFA is past a certain age they are unrestricted free agents, but if they are not they are subject to the spending rules?

 

It's a lower amount because a) he has greater risk as a teenage prospect and b) the market might be lower because teams will have to pay double his contract amount when you include the penalty.

[Clem Fandango]

Read a blurb on Rotoworld about how he was expected to sign a $30-$40 mil deal and I thought that seemed wildly off because of the recent signings of Tomas and Abreu and the like. Are they projecting that low of a figure thought because he's young and is subject to the spending guidelines and rules? Like if he signed a contract that big would it have to be a signing bonus that gives him all that money? Not clear on the international spending regulations all that much. Isn't there a rule that says if an IFA is past a certain age they are unrestricted free agents, but if they are not they are subject to the spending rules?

 

It's a lower amount because a) he has greater risk as a teenage prospect and b) the market might be lower because teams will have to pay double his contract amount when you include the penalty.

 

Gotcha. Thanks!

[Guest]

@JesseSanchezMLB: Source: Yoan Moncada still not cleared by US govt to sign. His schedule includes seven private workouts with undisclosed teams this month.

 

@kileymcd: Yoan Lopez submitted paperwork to OFAC in Oct/Nov, was unblocked Jan 9 & signed W/ARZ today. Yoan Moncada submitted in Sept, still blocked.

 

@kileymcd: One agent called OFAC "worse to deal with than the DMV." Moncada is only Cuban player to legally leave Cuba making delay even more confusing

 

@JesseSanchezMLB: Source: #Dodgers aggressively pursued Yoan Lopez but came up short. Will now shift attention to OF Yoan Moncada. Expect a private workout.

[Guest]

It would be much cheaper to bribe a gov't official to hold up the paperwork than to outbid the Sox & Yanks right now...

[Guest]

@kileymcd: One agent called OFAC "worse to deal with than the DMV." Moncada is only Cuban player to legally leave Cuba making delay even more confusing

 

Might make it less confusing.

[Guest]

Badler tweeted that the Giants had a private workout for Moncada.

 

@TheCCO: McLeod: Would not go into specifics on Yoan Moncada. Wants to keep those discussions/interest internal #Cubs

[Guest]

Jesse Sanchez[/url]"]According to industry sources, Moncada, 19, has held private workouts for the Brewers, Rangers, Giants, Yankees, Red Sox, and Padres in Florida. The Dodgers, Rays, Cubs, and Phillies are also showing strong interest.

[Guest]

Ben Badler[/url]"]But because of the payment structure required to sign Moncada, the teams that sources consider the leaders to sign him are mostly big-market, high-revenue clubs. The Yankees are the favorites. They have already gone over their 2014-15 international bonus pool, which means they’re already prohibited from signing pool-eligible players for more than $300,000 for the next two signing periods beginning July 2, so they won’t face any further penalties to sign Moncada, other than the 100 percent overage tax on his signing. With their financial resources and lack of young infield talent, Moncada, who has already had a private workout with the Yankees, is a perfect fit for them.

 

The Red Sox too are over their bonus pool and have the cash to strike a deal, although they have a better stash of young infielders. The Dodgers have publicly claimed that they will pursue him. Some believe the Cubs are pushing hard for Moncada, though they won’t be able to sign him until July 2, since they went over their 2013-14 bonus pool and can’t sign any pool-eligible players for more than $250,000 until then. Moncada has not received the specific license from the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) that Major League Baseball requires Cuban players to have before signing. The longer the government drags its feet, the better off things are for the Cubs. Even if he does get cleared soon, there’s nothing preventing Moncada from agreeing to sign with the Cubs, then waiting until July 2 to sign the official contract.

[Guest]

@sahadevsharma: Cuban stud Yoan Moncada is in the midst of a string of private workouts. Hearing Cubs will have theirs this weekend. They're very interested

 

@sahadevsharma: Cuban stud Yoan Moncada is in the midst of a string of private workouts. Hearing Cubs will have theirs this weekend. They're very interested

[davell]

Being able to spread his bonus payment out over 3 seasons is very beneficial to us.

[Cubswin11]

I'm gonna need Derwood's analysis if spreading out his payments is good or bad for us, first.

 

But it's good to hear we can talk/negotiate terms of a contract with him for after July 2nd, I thought that wasn't allowed and we could only talk terms under this period in which we have restrictions.

[davell]

I think we need his OFAC clearance to be held up til mid April or so to start seriously thinking we've got a chance with him. Because we're not going to blow the Yanks or Red Sox out of the water bidding. Not to mention the Dodgers, who we'd still have to contend with if it miraculously drug on for a while.