Russell Martin

[Hairyducked Idiot]

somebody get me excited about russell martin without talking about pitch framing

 

He's not nothing.

[Guest]

somebody get me excited about russell martin without talking about pitch framing

 

several really smart teams care a lot about pitch framing

[Guest]

somebody get me excited about russell martin without talking about pitch framing

 

several really smart teams care a lot about pitch framing

 

i know, but what else

[Guest]

somebody get me excited about russell martin without talking about pitch framing

 

several really smart teams care a lot about pitch framing

 

i know, but what else

 

Defense. Patience at the plate. Even with his BABIP regressed he should be an above average offensive C.

[Guest]

somebody get me excited about russell martin without talking about pitch framing

 

several really smart teams care a lot about pitch framing

 

i know, but what else

 

Defense. Patience at the plate. Even with his BABIP regressed he should be an above average offensive C.

 

i know, but for 5/75 or whatever? i feel like we have a million potentially good position players, and i'm not convinced that we aren't still poor. i still believe we'll get an elite pitcher, but i'm also terrified that maddon and martin are going to be our 2 big offseason acquisitions.

[Deeg]

somebody get me excited about russell martin without talking about pitch framing

 

several really smart teams care a lot about pitch framing

 

i know, but what else

 

Defense. Patience at the plate. Even with his BABIP regressed he should be an above average offensive C.

 

i know, but for 5/75 or whatever? i feel like we have a million potentially good position players, and i'm not convinced that we aren't still poor. i still believe we'll get an elite pitcher, but i'm also terrified that maddon and martin are going to be our 2 big offseason acquisitions.

 

The Cubs aren't giving him that. If he signs for 4, they're going to get him. If the Dodgers go 5, they're out.

[Guest]

somebody get me excited about russell martin without talking about pitch framing

 

several really smart teams care a lot about pitch framing

 

i know, but what else

 

Defense. Patience at the plate. Even with his BABIP regressed he should be an above average offensive C.

 

i know, but for 5/75 or whatever? i feel like we have a million potentially good position players, and i'm not convinced that we aren't still poor. i still believe we'll get an elite pitcher, but i'm also terrified that maddon and martin are going to be our 2 big offseason acquisitions.

 

$15M AAV really isn't that much to live up to. Not these days. It sounds like more than it is.

 

I'd much rather go 4 years but I might give in on the 5th if necessary.

[Tyrant]

somebody get me excited about russell martin without talking about pitch framing

 

the catcher aging curve isn't as bad as people think:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/catcher-aging-is-a-curve-not-a-cliff/

[Guest]

somebody get me excited about russell martin without talking about pitch framing

 

the catcher aging curve isn't as bad as people think:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/catcher-aging-is-a-curve-not-a-cliff/

So you also have a bad understanding of survivor bias.

[sneakypower]

- fangraphs doesn't care about pitch framing and they considered Russell Martin 5+ WAR player this year; Rizzo was the only Cubs hitter above 3

 

- Martin was 2nd in the NL in OBP

 

- his BB rate would have led the Cubs this year

 

and then you start to look into pitch framing, where he's assuredly a multitude of runs/wins better than what we had behind the plate

[Guest]

- fangraphs doesn't care about pitch framing and they considered Russell Martin 5+ WAR player this year; Rizzo was the only Cubs hitter above 3

 

- Martin was 2nd in the NL in OBP

 

- his BB rate would have led the Cubs this year

 

and then you start to look into pitch framing, where he's assuredly a multitude of runs/wins better than what we had behind the plate

And the years before this one?

 

I'm ok with signing Martin, but I'm not ok with going crazy to do it.

[sneakypower]

- fangraphs doesn't care about pitch framing and they considered Russell Martin 5+ WAR player this year; Rizzo was the only Cubs hitter above 3

 

- Martin was 2nd in the NL in OBP

 

- his BB rate would have led the Cubs this year

 

and then you start to look into pitch framing, where he's assuredly a multitude of runs/wins better than what we had behind the plate

And the years before this one?

 

I'm ok with signing Martin, but I'm not ok with going crazy to do it.

in 2013, he was a 4+ win player, even ignoring framing

 

- we didn't have a 4-win player that year

 

- his BB rate would have been 2nd on the Cubs that year

 

bonus: our backup C had less than -1 WAR this season; 40 games of Castillo would project as a multiple-win upgrade over that, to say nothing of the monumental upgrade at the starter role

[Guest]

His WAR through his prime years (26 - 31): 1.4, 1.9, 2.7, 2.0, 4.1, 5.3

 

The vast majority of value in 2013 was defensive (0.3 vs 22.7).

 

His wOBA since 2009 (one of these is not like the others!): .309, .306, .324, .316, .315, .370

 

In 2013, it is true we didn't have a 4 win player. We did have a 3.3 win player in Castillo. For a lot less than $15M/yr.

 

----------

 

Again, I'm for signing Martin and much prefer that option to giving up assets for Montero. But I'm not about to give a five year deal to a catcher who will begin the year at age 32.

[Guest]

Sneaky - what contract are you comfortable with for Martin?

[Sammy Sofa]

Something like 4 years/$15 million a year is like the max I'd want to do.

[chopsx9]

His WAR through his prime years (26 - 31): 1.4, 1.9, 2.7, 2.0, 4.1, 5.3

 

The vast majority of value in 2013 was defensive (0.3 vs 22.7).

 

His wOBA since 2009 (one of these is not like the others!): .309, .306, .324, .316, .315, .370

 

In 2013, it is true we didn't have a 4 win player. We did have a 3.3 win player in Castillo. For a lot less than $15M/yr.

 

----------

 

Again, I'm for signing Martin and much prefer that option to giving up assets for Montero. But I'm not about to give a five year deal to a catcher who will begin the year at age 32.

 

This is basically how I feel - I'll preface it by saying I think Castillo is going to be better this year and I think there is an even better chance Martin regresses. I just don't see any incremental improvement being worth 15M a year if that is what he's going to get. I'd be in at $12-13M for 3 years - anymore and all the best to him. 32 year old catchers are too risky IMO. I'm going to peg his 2015 WAR at 2.5.

[Sammy Sofa]

I think Castillo is going to be better this year

 

Why?

[sneakypower]

Sneaky - what contract are you comfortable with for Martin?

i wouldn't be too devastated by McCann money, minus a year, but i don't have intimate knowledge of our finances

[Guest]

- fangraphs doesn't care about pitch framing and they considered Russell Martin 5+ WAR player this year; Rizzo was the only Cubs hitter above 3

 

- Martin was 2nd in the NL in OBP

 

- his BB rate would have led the Cubs this year

 

and then you start to look into pitch framing, where he's assuredly a multitude of runs/wins better than what we had behind the plate

 

what evidence is there to suggest that he's more likely to match last season's performance and not the steady .700 ops he had the previous 5 years?

 

i just don't like the upside with the kind of money you're talking about.

[Guest]

Sneaky - what contract are you comfortable with for Martin?

i wouldn't be too devastated by McCann money, minus a year, but i don't have intimate knowledge of our finances

So, I'm saying 4/60 and you're suggesting something around 4/68?

 

ok, fine.

[CubsWin]

somebody get me excited about russell martin without talking about pitch framing

Well, there's the fWAR he's put up over his career.

Fox Sports, Gabe Kapler[/url]"]Yadier Molina is rightly held up as one of the best catchers in the game. Since 2006, he has accumulated nearly 30 fWAR. We measure his five tools (hit, hit for power, run, defense, and throw) and his performance, and then assign a value. Russell Martin, since his rookie year in 2006, has actually accumulated more fWAR than Molina, at just over 30.

But the Cubs front office has emphasized acquiring players with excellent make-up. Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber and Albert Almora all possess the make-up necessary to get the most out of their ability. Apparently, Russell Martin does, too.

 

He never stops working to improve the weaknesses in his game.

ESPN's Jerry Crasnick[/url]"]He's shown the willingness and ability to adapt and address the flaws in his game. After a so-so 2013 season, he resolved to take a better two-strike approach, and the effort paid dividends. Martin is hitting .219 with two strikes this year, compared to .129 a year ago, in large part because he's doing a better job of trusting his hands and hitting the ball where it's pitched.

There's leadership.

Fox Sports, Gabe Kapler[/url]"]Their teammates refer to men like this as “an extra coach on the field.” In some ways, a man like Martin can be superior to members of the coaching staff. As a hitter, I knew my swing well by the time I reached the majors. I certainly had my mechanical flaws, but what I truly desired in my hitting coach and manager was an intellectually and emotionally developed teammate. I depended upon these men to raise my performance through encouragement and confident pushback. While I didn’t find these often in field-staff members, I discovered them in Jason Varitek. Martin, like Molina and ‘Tek, possesses this ability to lead.

 

These men have all built impressive offensive résumés. The lack of a quick acronym should not lead people to overlook the impact they have on their teammates. Is it perhaps reasonable to think that Martin raises the performance of a pitcher by one-fifth of a win over the course of a season? If he works with 15 pitchers, he’s added three wins to his club. Whoa, that’s a badass bump.

 

You can insert your own values into this equation. If you want to be extremely conservative and halve that number, 1.5 wins on top of his offensive and defensive contributions is still a significant addition.

 

ESPN's Jerry Crasnick[/url]"]

"He's impacted this club as much as any player we have," Hurdle said. "Andrew McCutchen deserves all the recognition he gets, but Russell Martin is just as important a part of this ballclub as Andrew McCutchen is, in a different role.

 

"He has the ability to make every pitcher feel like he has an opportunity to be the best he's ever been that day on the mound," he continued. "He brings an edge in the clubhouse and an edge when guys are in there lifting [weights]. Three hours before the game, he's dragging out guys who've never kicked a soccer ball in their life. Now they're out there kicking a ball. He's like the Pied Piper."

There's his physical conditioning and discipline.

ESPN's Jerry Crasnick[/url]"]Martin is going to great lengths to ensure his next employer -- Pittsburgh or whoever -- gets maximum value for its investment. He has embraced a holistic diet and significantly curtailed his gluten intake. He eats fruits, vegetables and lean meats in abundance and strays from the routine only once a week with a "cheat meal" every Friday night.

 

"When you combine yoga and pilates and you eat well, you're stacking all the chips on your side," Martin said. "I'm a little wiser and more experienced at understanding my body, and I've been really disciplined this season. I'm proud of myself, and I want to keep being proud of myself, so I feel I'm going to keep doing this. Hopefully, it will add some quality years to my career."

 

"While many of his fellow Pirates were in the trainer's room receiving treatment or in the clubhouse checking their tablets, Martin dragged a makeshift soccer net behind second base and worked up a sweat dribbling and kicking balls with teammate Charlie Morton. That's standard operating procedure for Martin, a born super-jock who enjoys ice hockey and yoga and likes to entertain his fellow Pirates with his ability to walk on his hands."

It [age] would scare me with an awful lot of guys. With Russell Martin, I’m not sure it would scare me, because I know what kind of shape he is in. I know how he takes care of his body. Now, that doesn’t necessarily guarantee anything, for the future. Age is age. You can’t stop that. But, if there’s anybody that has a younger body than what the number says on the back of the baseball card, I would say it’s Russell Martin.

There's his impact on a pitching staff.

ESPN's Jerry Crasnick[/url]"]But no player on the roster has a bigger stealth impact than Martin.

 

Martin's impact as a staff handler, pitch framer, ball blocker and scouting report-implementer is evident beyond the raves from Pittsburgh's pitchers and coaches. The Pirates have a 3.49 team ERA with Martin behind the plate, compared to a 3.81 mark with their other catchers. Martin also has thrown out 25 of 77 base stealers this season for a success rate of 35 percent. He's snagged Reds center fielder Billy Hamilton three times.

 

Martin's commitment to Pittburgh's staff is evident in his pre-game work and attention to scouting reports. From Francisco Liriano and Morton to Edinson Volquez and Worley, the Pirates love their turnaround specials. A dedicated and instinctive catcher plays a major role in the organization's approach to pitching.

 

"The game is constantly flowing with him," Worley said of Martin. "He'll set up early. He'll set up late. He'll deke one thing to get the batter thinking, and then he'll jump around and he's in another spot. His ability to read hitters and know situations makes everything easier for the pitching staff. We don't have to think. It's grab the ball and go."

And finally, there's his post-season experience, something this young team almost completely lacks. Martin has already played in ten post-season series. He played in the 2006 NL Division Series and twice played for Dodgers teams that advanced to the NL Championship Series in 2008 and 2009. He played in the 2012 AL Championship Series with the Yankees, and the 2011 AL Division Series with New York. And he's led the Pirates to their first post-season action since 1992 the past two years in a row.

 

Excited yet?

[Tyrant]

somebody get me excited about russell martin without talking about pitch framing

 

the catcher aging curve isn't as bad as people think:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/catcher-aging-is-a-curve-not-a-cliff/

So you also have a bad understanding of survivor bias.

 

This is addressed in the comments by the author.

[Guest]

somebody get me excited about russell martin without talking about pitch framing

 

the catcher aging curve isn't as bad as people think:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/catcher-aging-is-a-curve-not-a-cliff/

So you also have a bad understanding of survivor bias.

 

This is addressed in the comments by the author.

Just not very effectively.

 

---- eta

 

To explain things a bit better, these graphs are fairly useless without also accounting for the rate at which players fail entirely. Whereas the 30 year olds may be a group of 100 players, the 38 year olds may only be 3-4 guys. That means that if you're handing out an eight year contract to a 30 year old guy, you are not only at risk of the average decline in performance of 0.5 WAR/yr, but also the 97% total failure rate of the player not even being on the field any longer.

 

When considering a 4-5 year deal to Martin, you have to account for the likely decline in performance. But you also have to deal with the risk based on how many guys stop catching full time between the ages of 32 and 37. The analysis is severely flawed without consideration of that risk.

[sneakypower]

he does yoga? make that 5/80

[Guest]

i like Martin, but his value isn't likely to be much more than Castillo's going forward, at least enough to justify his paycheck.

 

Castillo had a bad year and was still a 2.2 WAR player.