2015 lineup or no?

[Guest]

There's also the fact that Lester is demonstrably a better pitcher than Hamels. At least you have the chance of getting a 5 win season out of Lester, and he doesn't have the recent injury history.

I don't get how that's "demonstrably" lol true.

 

Hamels' best season(3 years ago now) would be the 5th best of Lester's career.

[Rob]

I did not realize this board had such a weird obsession with Hamels until today.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Assuming Lester's last two years would be at a replacement level, then that's basically saying you want to sell Castro for approximately $40-50 million, since that is the excess amount of salary it would cost for those two years of replacement level. If we are just selling away 3-win 25-year-old players for salary relief, then that is a problem.

[Sammy Sofa]

I guess the moral is stop being willfully ignorant of all variables because of your unreasonable love for Castro who isn't that good anyway.

 

I'm sorta thinking this is because people said I was out-crazy-ing you the other day so you stepped it up.

[Guest]

Assuming Lester's last two years would be at a replacement level, then that's basically saying you want to sell Castro for approximately $40-50 million, since that is the excess amount of salary it would cost for those two years of replacement level. If we are just selling away 3-win 25-year-old players for salary relief, then that is a problem.

 

I guess the moral is stop being willfully ignorant of all variables because of your unreasonable love for Castro who isn't that good anyway.

[Guest]

There's also the fact that Lester is demonstrably a better pitcher than Hamels. At least you have the chance of getting a 5 win season out of Lester, and he doesn't have the recent injury history.

I don't get how that's "demonstrably" lol true.

 

Hamels' best season(3 years ago now) would be the 5th best of Lester's career.

 

how is it over the last 3 years? fwar gives Hamels the slight edge since 2011, bwar gives him an overwhelming or demonstrable edge.

Edited August 9, 2014 by Stannis

[muntjack]

Castro is the 2nd youngest SS in MLB (Bogaerts), and is the best offensive SS under 29. He hasn't even entered his prime years. His value is ridiculous.

[Guest]

Castro is the 2nd youngest SS in MLB (Bogaerts), and is the best offensive SS under 29. He hasn't even entered his prime years. His value is ridiculous.

 

what about on full moons?

[Guest]

Again, i don't hate Castro, I like him, and his .750 perrennial OPS is fine, too. i don't see him as close to the best option at third and i don't see him as the best option as SS, which makes him surplus value. i'm just saying turn that value into a guy that can pitch really really good, is only signed for 4 years above age 30 and continues to put forward rock solid 4.5+ WAR campaigns and whose best pitch isn't an elbow-killing slider. Edited August 9, 2014 by Stannis

[jumbo]

Assuming Lester's last two years would be at a replacement level, then that's basically saying you want to sell Castro for approximately $40-50 million, since that is the excess amount of salary it would cost for those two years of replacement level. If we are just selling away 3-win 25-year-old players for salary relief, then that is a problem.

 

I guess the moral is stop being willfully ignorant of all variables because of your unreasonable love for Castro who isn't that good anyway.

 

I think this will make the fourth on my ignore list

[Guest]

Assuming Lester's last two years would be at a replacement level, then that's basically saying you want to sell Castro for approximately $40-50 million, since that is the excess amount of salary it would cost for those two years of replacement level. If we are just selling away 3-win 25-year-old players for salary relief, then that is a problem.

 

I guess the moral is stop being willfully ignorant of all variables because of your unreasonable love for Castro who isn't that good anyway.

 

I think this will make the fourth on my ignore list

 

that's like going to Paris and not checking out Paris.

[Sammy Sofa]

Again, i don't hate Castro, I like him, and his .750 perrennial OPS is fine, too. i don't see him as close to the best option at third and i don't see him as the best option as SS, which makes him surplus value. i'm just saying turn that value into a guy that can pitch really really good, is only signed for 4 years above age 30 and continues to put forward rock solid 4.5+ WAR campaigns and whose best pitch isn't an elbow-killing slider.

 

So move him to 2B and Baez to 3B.

[Guest]

Again, i don't hate Castro, I like him, and his .750 perrennial OPS is fine, too. i don't see him as close to the best option at third and i don't see him as the best option as SS, which makes him surplus value. i'm just saying turn that value into a guy that can pitch really really good, is only signed for 4 years above age 30 and continues to put forward rock solid 4.5+ WAR campaigns and whose best pitch isn't an elbow-killing slider.

 

So move him to 2B and Baez to 3B.

 

i like this:

 

CF - Alcantara

SS - Russell

1b - Rizzo

3b - Bryant

RF - Soler

2b - Baez

LF - R. Castillo

C - W. Castillo

 

After swapping Castro for an established Ace like Hamels, perhaps that makes Chicago more attractive to Lester or Scherzer, and the Cubs nab one of them to round out the rotation. So you have two aces, Arrieta, Hendricks, and Turner and a bullpen full of fell creatures to add to the lineup of heroes.

 

In summation, my four arguments for Hamels are:

 

1. He'd be easier to acquire

2. He's signed for only 4 more guaranteed years which takes him to 34 by the end of the deal

3. If there is a dropoff in production from Castro to Russell (which there almost certainly won't be), the upgrade of Hamels to Jackson or Wood or whomever would more than make up for it.

4. The changeup he throws as his out pitch is much easier on the arm than the breaking stuff others throw

[Guest]

i think sulley is going too far with this and i absolutely would not have traded castro for hamels, but a lot of people are underrating the value in knowing that you'll get a guy rather than just having a chance to bid on him. it's all well and good to say oh just go sign lester, but a bunch of teams are saying that. we'll have the money to make whatever offer we like for lester, but that's far from a guarantee that we'll get him. even offering the most money (which is something that would honestly surprise me) is no guarantee. lots of teams have lots of money and every team wants great starting pitchers.

 

 

Well yeah if we're going to talk practically, there's the difference on both sides. We aren't signing Lester or Scherzer for 4 years, but it's also been abundantly clear that Hamels wasn't/isn't going to be coming for less than what Sulley thinks Castro is worth(far less than actual value, but still a lot/too much). I guess we can hope whoever they replace Amaro with is a bit more sane, but there's still the same bidder problem in trading for Hamels in the offseason that there is in signing a FA pitcher. This is another reason to do something like trade Alcantara for a pre-FA(hopefully pre-arb) pitcher. young cost controlled bats have never been more valuable, and we could quite easily be the only team in baseball in a position to trade one to add pitching.

 

but it's certain that they haven't offered Castro to Amaro yet.

[TruffleShuffle]

i don't really understand why lester has a consistently better fWAR than hamels when his FIP has been a little worse. maybe the higher run environment from pitching in the AL east?

[Guest]

i don't really understand why lester has a consistently better fWAR than hamels when his FIP has been a little worse. maybe the higher run environment from pitching in the AL east?

 

he hasn't had a consistently higher fWAR than Hamels. if TT wants to start being intellectually honest he can admit that Hamels has more fWAR than Lester since 2011 and considerably more bWAR.

[TruffleShuffle]

i don't really understand why lester has a consistently better fWAR than hamels when his FIP has been a little worse. maybe the higher run environment from pitching in the AL east?

 

he hasn't had a consistently higher fWAR than Hamels. if TT wants to start being intellectually honest he can admit that Hamels has more fWAR than Lester since 2011 and considerably more bWAR.

 

i guess i'm looking more at 2008-2010 and then the last year and a half.

[Sammy Sofa]

Again, i don't hate Castro, I like him, and his .750 perrennial OPS is fine, too. i don't see him as close to the best option at third and i don't see him as the best option as SS, which makes him surplus value. i'm just saying turn that value into a guy that can pitch really really good, is only signed for 4 years above age 30 and continues to put forward rock solid 4.5+ WAR campaigns and whose best pitch isn't an elbow-killing slider.

 

So move him to 2B and Baez to 3B.

 

i like this:

 

CF - Alcantara

SS - Russell

1b - Rizzo

3b - Bryant

RF - Soler

2b - Baez

LF - R. Castillo

C - W. Castillo

 

After swapping Castro for an established Ace like Hamels, perhaps that makes Chicago more attractive to Lester or Scherzer, and the Cubs nab one of them to round out the rotation. So you have two aces, Arrieta, Hendricks, and Turner and a bullpen full of fell creatures to add to the lineup of heroes.

 

In summation, my four arguments for Hamels are:

 

1. He'd be easier to acquire

2. He's signed for only 4 more guaranteed years which takes him to 34 by the end of the deal

3. If there is a dropoff in production from Castro to Russell (which there almost certainly won't be), the upgrade of Hamels to Jackson or Wood or whomever would more than make up for it.

4. The changeup he throws as his out pitch is much easier on the arm than the breaking stuff others throw

 

But you're essentially assuming that the largely established Castro is all but a lock to be outperformed by a bunch of prospects. I'd rather keep him, and if you're so concerned with making room for all of these guys then simply leave out Castillo or trade Alcantara.

[davell]

As much as I love our prospects, the odds that all of Javy, Russell, KB, and Alcantara(guys that could affect Castro's usefulness to us) is extremely slim.

 

If I HAD to deal one of that group or Castro, I'd deal Alcantara. And sign Rusney to play CF.

[treebird]

another thing that is important to take into account is castro's reputation around the league. if russell crushes and forces his way into ss, i absolutely want to explore trading castro, but a real part of me thinks that we might struggle to get fair value for him. all the more reason to wait to pursue that trade until we have everyone else in place.

[JennieGarthAlgar]

What exactly is his reputation around the league? Because I'd be willing to bet nearly every team would take a good hard look at their roster with an eye to making Castro fit into it, we're he available to them in a trade that made sense to them. His reputation? Good lord.. he's not Milton Bradley or anything, here.

 

The way I look at our prospects, if a couple reach production on a Rizzo level and a couple reach Castro level, I'd be super pleased. I know it looks weird and I hope my point is getting across, but tell me if you think a lineup with this kind ofproduction would be an NL favorite or not:

 

LF Castillo :beg:

SS Castro

1B Rizzo

3B Rizzo

RF Rizzo

2B Castro

CF Castro

C Castillo

[Guest]

another thing that is important to take into account is castro's reputation around the league. if russell crushes and forces his way into ss, i absolutely want to explore trading castro, but a real part of me thinks that we might struggle to get fair value for him. all the more reason to wait to pursue that trade until we have everyone else in place.

You are breaking my heart dude

[Guest]

i don't really understand why lester has a consistently better fWAR than hamels when his FIP has been a little worse. maybe the higher run environment from pitching in the AL east?

 

he hasn't had a consistently higher fWAR than Hamels. if TT wants to start being intellectually honest he can admit that Hamels has more fWAR than Lester since 2011 and considerably more bWAR.

 

More fWAR since:

 

2014: Lester

2013: Lester

2012: Lester

2011: Hamels (by 0.1 fWAR)

2010: Lester

2009: Lester

2008: Lester

2007: Lester

2006: Lester

 

Best fWAR seasons of their careers:

 

2009 Lester

2010 Lester

2014 Lester

2008 Lester

----5 win threshold----

2011 Hamels

2012 Hamels

2013 Lester/2008 Hamels (tie)

[Rob]

i don't really understand why lester has a consistently better fWAR than hamels when his FIP has been a little worse. maybe the higher run environment from pitching in the AL east?

 

Yeah, park and league adjustments. Lester looks about 2% better after you take them into consideration.

 

Lester has a career 3.59 FIP. That's good for a FIP- of 83.

Hamels has a career 3.48 FIP. That's good for a FIP- of 85.

[Guest]

i don't really understand why lester has a consistently better fWAR than hamels when his FIP has been a little worse. maybe the higher run environment from pitching in the AL east?

 

he hasn't had a consistently higher fWAR than Hamels. if TT wants to start being intellectually honest he can admit that Hamels has more fWAR than Lester since 2011 and considerably more bWAR.

 

More fWAR since:

 

2014: Lester

2013: Lester

2012: Lester

2011: Hamels (by 0.1 fWAR)

2010: Lester

2009: Lester

2008: Lester

2007: Lester

2006: Lester

 

Best fWAR seasons of their careers:

 

2009 Lester

2010 Lester

2014 Lester

2008 Lester

----5 win threshold----

2011 Hamels

2012 Hamels

2013 Lester/2008 Hamels (tie)

 

thanks for admitting it. now admit that there is no "demonstrable" difference between Lester and Hamels.

 

holy [expletive] they're both good, but Lester is probably going back to Boston and Hamels has 4 years on his deal, which will take a guy like him through his productive years with a club option if he's good. i'm positive that Jed and Theo value that. And like I said, with Hamels on board, Lester or Scherzer are more likely to look at Chicago as a destination. If the Cubs can come out of the offseason with Hamels and Lester/Scherzer, they are Central favorites and can rival the Dodgers and Nationals immediately. If they can put that together, they will, even if it means trading Castro to do it.