2015 Draft Discussion

[toonsterwu]

I have wondered aloud whether or not, provided medicals were fine, if we could get one of the injured pitchers to take a below slot deal, better than what they could get later (outside of a couple teams, namely, the Astros come to mind). Aiken will probably want slot, but I do wonder about Matuella or Kirby. I doubt the Cubs do that, though. Too risky of a move to justify it at this juncture, considering the risk that already comes with pitchers.

 

For all the intrigue about Jay, I can't help but be a bit lukewarm on him. I doubt he gets to 9 now ... but man, taking college closers and making them into starters can be hit or miss. For every Andrew Cashner, there's a Nick Howard (and I admit, I probably got caught up in the Nick Howard intrigue last year as a UVA fan ... but he was pedestrian starter his sophomore campaign before excelling as a closer). I'd be fine if they felt good enough, but I can't help but be a tad worried. I mean ... the Red Sox really believed that Jonathan Papelbon would be a starter, and you can believe in it, but it still might not work (IIRC, they attempted to move him back to the rotation his 2nd pro season, but he or the team felt like it wasn't a fit).

[Guest]

Gammons doing his vague tweets saying there's alot of movement at the top including Benintendi to Astros at 5. Unclear if he's breaking something or just thinking out loud.

 

Think it was McDaniel who said Benintendi could go as high as 1.2 over the weekend. Callis mocked him at 1.5 this morning. The thinking is that Daz will fall to them in the 30s due to high bonus demands.

[sontensei]

Also, with the rule change making 1st round picks tradeable after 5 months instead of 12, and with Aiken and Matuella out of commission for about another 5 months before they'd start throwing for real, the timeline seems set up nicely to trade for one of those guys. I have no idea what it would take or given the asking price if it'd be worth it, but the Cubs have a deep system and the timeline is uniquely fortuitous.

 

If the price is fair, it'd be quite the coup to get a guy at #9 who they like and will underslot allowing them to land one or two of the tough-to-sign arms in the middle rounds plus get Aiken or Matuella in a deal.

 

Seeing as there doesn't seem to be anything overly exciting likely to be there at #9, I was kind of sort of thinking in terms of taking Aiken there and hoping he'll sign for slot and then go overslot happy in the other rounds. It's not like it would be our biggest waste of a top 10 pick this decade.

 

still hoping Jay is there although everyone thinks he wont be

[sontensei]

I have wondered aloud whether or not, provided medicals were fine, if we could get one of the injured pitchers to take a below slot deal, better than what they could get later (outside of a couple teams, namely, the Astros come to mind). Aiken will probably want slot, but I do wonder about Matuella or Kirby. I doubt the Cubs do that, though. Too risky of a move to justify it at this juncture, considering the risk that already comes with pitchers.

 

For all the intrigue about Jay, I can't help but be a bit lukewarm on him. I doubt he gets to 9 now ... but man, taking college closers and making them into starters can be hit or miss. For every Andrew Cashner, there's a Nick Howard (and I admit, I probably got caught up in the Nick Howard intrigue last year as a UVA fan ... but he was pedestrian starter his sophomore campaign before excelling as a closer). I'd be fine if they felt good enough, but I can't help but be a tad worried. I mean ... the Red Sox really believed that Jonathan Papelbon would be a starter, and you can believe in it, but it still might not work (IIRC, they attempted to move him back to the rotation his 2nd pro season, but he or the team felt like it wasn't a fit).

 

I saw a few Illinois games as my little brother goes to school there and man that guy on the mound is pretty impressive. Have to remember Chris Sale started off in the pen too.

[Guest]

I have wondered aloud whether or not, provided medicals were fine, if we could get one of the injured pitchers to take a below slot deal, better than what they could get later (outside of a couple teams, namely, the Astros come to mind). Aiken will probably want slot, but I do wonder about Matuella or Kirby. I doubt the Cubs do that, though. Too risky of a move to justify it at this juncture, considering the risk that already comes with pitchers.

 

For all the intrigue about Jay, I can't help but be a bit lukewarm on him. I doubt he gets to 9 now ... but man, taking college closers and making them into starters can be hit or miss. For every Andrew Cashner, there's a Nick Howard (and I admit, I probably got caught up in the Nick Howard intrigue last year as a UVA fan ... but he was pedestrian starter his sophomore campaign before excelling as a closer). I'd be fine if they felt good enough, but I can't help but be a tad worried. I mean ... the Red Sox really believed that Jonathan Papelbon would be a starter, and you can believe in it, but it still might not work (IIRC, they attempted to move him back to the rotation his 2nd pro season, but he or the team felt like it wasn't a fit).

 

I saw a few Illinois games as my little brother goes to school there and man that guy on the mound is pretty impressive. Have to remember Chris Sale started off in the pen too.

 

Sale was a full time starter in college. We're not talking about how these players made their big league debut, seeing as we don't have that information on players who will be drafted tonight.

[Guest]

BA's final mock also has Benintendi going 5 and Happ going 9:

 

9. Cubs

 

Every year, we write about the Cubs needing pitching. Every year, we should figure out that teams run by Theo Epstein take a hitter with their first pick. The Cubs have taken a hitter with their first pick of Epstein’s three drafts and 10 out of 12 first picks between his time with the Red Sox and Cubs. Benintendi would be the bonanza here, but he’s not going to last this long. Chicago has thrived with college position picks with strong performance track records, so Happ is the best bet on the board.

 

Selection: Ian Happ, of/2b, Cincinnati

[toonsterwu]

A part of me is thoroughly fascinated with Benintendi, as he does seem intriguing. Another part of me is so very lukewarm on the idea of the "next" Ellsbury. Leaving aside the Cubs guys that have been briefly tabbed as that (Szczur, Hannemann), there's so many guys that have gotten that type of label before, and ... most of them don't pan out.

 

To be quite honest, I can't think of a guy I will really get excited about, and a guy I won't (I guess this mean I'll be alright with almost any pick). Heck, I'm still not enthused about the top shortstops in this draft, the guys that could go 1-3. The top three arms are intriguing, but ... geesh, leaving aside the pitcher factor, all three of Jay/Fulmer/Tate come with bigger concerns than top arms of recent past. The idea of Happ is growing on me in that, since we likely will make some trades this year, Happ could potentially fill in any "voids" in the system sooner than later (although you never know if a guy will just not mesh) and is a bit less risky than a HS bat.

 

Just not an exciting draft. Too bad we weren't drafting late first this year ... I'm almost more intrigued being in that range, due to injuries. Will be glad next year when we're picking lower and don't need to care as much, as we have to wait and see how the pieces fall.

[RammyFanny]

Is it lazy for me to think of a Benintendi comp as the "good Coghlan" offensively but with plus defense (if he moved to a corner)? Maybe a few more homers hopefully.

[sneakypower]

BA's final mock also has Benintendi going 5 and Happ going 9:

 

9. Cubs

 

Every year, we write about the Cubs needing pitching. Every year, we should figure out that teams run by Theo Epstein take a hitter with their first pick. The Cubs have taken a hitter with their first pick of Epstein’s three drafts and 10 out of 12 first picks between his time with the Red Sox and Cubs. Benintendi would be the bonanza here, but he’s not going to last this long. Chicago has thrived with college position picks with strong performance track records, so Happ is the best bet on the board.

 

Selection: Ian Happ, of/2b, Cincinnati

i know nothing about nothing, but this guy & Daz are 2 picks i'd be most immediately pleased with

[Guest]

BA's final mock also has Benintendi going 5 and Happ going 9:

 

9. Cubs

 

Every year, we write about the Cubs needing pitching. Every year, we should figure out that teams run by Theo Epstein take a hitter with their first pick. The Cubs have taken a hitter with their first pick of Epstein’s three drafts and 10 out of 12 first picks between his time with the Red Sox and Cubs. Benintendi would be the bonanza here, but he’s not going to last this long. Chicago has thrived with college position picks with strong performance track records, so Happ is the best bet on the board.

 

Selection: Ian Happ, of/2b, Cincinnati

i know nothing about nothing, but this guy & Daz are 2 picks i'd be most immediately pleased with

Yeah, I think I'd be most happy with those two and Kyle Tucker amongst those who have a reasonable chance of being there at 9.

 

And I think we all feel the same way as you, toonster. Such a boring, mediocre draft. As you said, picking later does allow you a chance at high ceiling talent you wouldn't risk picking in the top 10 (Aiken, Matuela and Kirby).

[ctcf]

I would like the Cubs to reach on Kyle Funkhouser just because. #analysis

[Cubswin11]

Law has us taking Jay in his final mock, he's also chatting at 3 CT today

[ctcf]

Would Jay be drafted with the intention of making him a starter?

[davell]

We're going to spend a ton in IFA and we may not even HAVE a 1st rounder next year, so if they think Aiken's meds are remotely solid, I'd take him and run.

[KrisBryantisaBeast]

If Jay ends up to be an elite closer instead of a good starting pitcher would he still be worth taking at 9? I would personally be okay with drafting someone like a Papelbon at #9 especially in what seems to be a relatively weak draft.

[Guest]

Would Jay be drafted with the intention of making him a starter?

 

Yes.

[Guest]

Canadian high school first baseman Josh Naylor has a lot of helium right now. He might have the best power in the Draft, and there are plenty of rumors he could vault into the top 12 picks, most likely to the Red Sox at No. 7, the Cubs at 9 or the Marlins at 12 (Jonathan Mayo noted Miami below). It looks more and more certain that he goes in the first round, and multi-pick teams that want him might have to use their first choice rather than their second.-- Jim Callis

 

• Aside from the injured pitchers, the biggest wild card at this point might be Daz Cameron. If the Rangers don't take him at No. 4, he could slide out of the first round because of a perceived price tag. The Astros pick at No. 37 and buzz persists that they could save some money at No. 2 and 5, then have the resources to take Cameron then.

 

 

 

 

[sontensei]

I read where McLeod said that he thinks Jay can start.

If they get Jay, I hope they do a Chris Sale with him, put him in the pen this year and then stretch him out to start next year / an beyond.

 

Jay is starting today in the elimination game of the college world series vs. vanderbilt ---- 3pm if he was dominant here i bet his stock goes through the roof.

[RammyFanny]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-final-mock-draft/

 

Fangraphs has Clark at 4 and says he won't get past the Cubs at 9.

[HendryWallet]

I read where McLeod said that he thinks Jay can start.

If they get Jay, I hope they do a Chris Sale with him, put him in the pen this year and then stretch him out to start next year / an beyond.

 

Jay is starting today in the elimination game of the college world series vs. vanderbilt ---- 3pm if he was dominant here i bet his stock goes through the roof.

 

On ESPN2

 

I assume he could be in the pen by July. Especially since he doesn't have many college innings this year

[sontensei]

I read where McLeod said that he thinks Jay can start.

If they get Jay, I hope they do a Chris Sale with him, put him in the pen this year and then stretch him out to start next year / an beyond.

 

Jay is starting today in the elimination game of the college world series vs. vanderbilt ---- 3pm if he was dominant here i bet his stock goes through the roof.

 

On ESPN2

 

I assume he could be in the pen by July. Especially since he doesn't have many college innings this year

 

I cant say how excited I would be if we get Jay especially since he is from lemont.. that would be sweet --- however he prolly grew up a sox fan lol

Edited June 8, 2015 by sontensei

[Guest]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-final-mock-draft/

 

Fangraphs has Clark at 4 and says he won't get past the Cubs at 9.

 

Kiley also gave the Cubs Jay:

 

9. Cubs – Tyler Jay, LHP, Illinois

 

Ian Happ has late momentum here after a private workout for the Cubs, but the pitcher they want falls into their laps here; Theo Epstein saw Jay pitch well recently after seeing another handful of pitchers with mediocre outings, like Kaprielian and Harris. People are tying the Cubs to a bat here and they’d take Clark, probably take Benintendi and are taking a long look at Happ, but the high level eyeballs have been on pitchers down the stretch.

[sliceofpie]

How does Jay's stuff compare to Rodon?

[sontensei]

Not sure but Fangraphs says he hit 97 mph on the clock and gave him a decent curveball score

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?type=1&pos=sp

[HendryWallet]

Jay looking good. 93-94. Nasty slider