BA & MLB.com's Cubs Top 10 Prospects

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All submitted. 6 minutes.

[davell]

Craig, I'll be extremely surprised if Bryant doesn't start in Tennessee at this point. Not that it'd be a HUGE difference-maker, but it'd allow Candelario 3B in Daytona as well.

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I'll post answers to non-stupid questions as they come.

[scarey]

Anyone that doesn't have a sub that wants to ask questions for the chat can put them here and I'll send them in. Chat starts at 2:30 EST.

 

Which A ball pitchers have the ability to make a jump into the top ten next year.

 

EDIT: Nevermind, looks like I was a bit late.

Edited November 11, 2013 by scarey

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Ben (Leland Grove): Hi John, what can you tell us about international prospects Eloy Jimenez and Gleybar Torres, and who came closer to making your list?

 

 

John Manuel: Both came close to the Top 10, especially Jimenez. There was a version of the Top 10 that included him. I was very unsure about what to do at No. 10; I don't think there is a consensus No. 10, not even within the organization, not to mention outside of it. Jimenez has a lot of things going for him. Being 16 is one though that also works against him in some ways. He's shown some oppo power early on and should be a profile right fielder. Torres has physical development to do but shows a good swing and good actions at shortstop. They'll both be written about in more detail & length in the Handbook.

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Frank (Chicago, IL): John, I gotta ask: how many of the top 10 are worthy of making BA's top 100?

 

 

John Manuel: Frank, I could see 7-8 of these guys in the Top 100. For me the cutoff is 7. I don't see Candelario or Vogelbach as consensus top 100 guys, but I can see Alcantara on toward the back because of the power-speed combination

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Ben (Leland Grove): I know the Cubs' system is stacked, but Kyle Hendricks was arguably the best pitcher this past season. What led to his omission from the list?

 

 

John Manuel: He lacks a separating pitch. I don't have a scouting report with a plus grade on it. He has very good control and decent command of a 4-pitch mix, but it's not premium command. He's a strike-thrower without a plus pitch. He had about as good a year as any minor league pitcher had this year; the Cubs had two of those guys with him and Edwards. It's just hard to see Hendricks being more than a fifth starter. He'll be in the 11-20 range of the book but frankly I haven't settled on exactly where yet.

[Guest]

Hendricks sure was hard to hit(and hit homers off of) for a guy who was simply pummeling the zone without elite command.

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Grant (NYC): What can you tell us about Christian Villanueva's tools, and was he in the next third of the top 30?

 

 

John Manuel: Scouts that I talked to like Villanueva fine, though there are questions about his swing. I got a Matt Dominguez comparison on Villanueva because it's not a fluid swing, but he's a very good defender at 3b. If it clicks offensively he has a chance to be a first-division regular; he's more of a second-division type to me now.

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Mike (Tampa FL): Between 2013 draftees RHP Trey Masek and LHP Rob Zastryzny, who impresses scouts more and why?

 

 

John Manuel: I have heard more positives about Zastryzny as a LHP who gets swings & misses with his fastball. He can be erratic, but when he's locked in he's pitching with average velocity, good deception, aggressiveness and a pair of secondary pitches he can throw for strikes. Masek has more pure arm strength but Zastryzny, at this time, is the better overall package.

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@Jaypers413 (IL): Thanks for the chat, John. How far off the top 10 did Mike Olt land, and are you reasonably confident he'll rebound this year? What is his future position likely to be once he gets the call?

 

 

John Manuel: The Cubs have 3 tough holdovers, for me, to rank. I lump Olt in with Brett Jackson and Josh Vitters. I know Olt is new to the organization, but his season was just as disastrous as Jackson's, if not moreso. He had a concussion that complicates matters as we've seen in recent years. I always liked Olt but one scout I was talking to who had Cubs pro coverage just wasn't optimistic about his return. I think he's going to give 3B a try again but it won't matter if he doesn't hit. He's putting in a lot of work this offseason with Cubs hitting coordinator Anthony Iapoce to try to rework his swing, but I think it shows where I stand that I ranked a guy who's missed two seasons ahead of him.

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Mike (Tampa FL): Were Paul Blackburn and Dillon Maples close to your top 10? Who was closer, and how did their pitches look this past year?

 

 

John Manuel: I wouldn't say they were close. I would say they were in the 15-30 discussion. Blackburn is closer but both those guys have a lot of work to do. Both of them were covered for subscribers in the Northwest League top 20; I'll go into more detail in the Handbook but they are unfortunately for the Cubs toward the top of a thin pitching depth system: http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2013-northwest-league-top-20-prospects-with-scouting-reports/

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@Jaypers413 (IL): Would you consider the Cubs' system to be #1 overall in terms of depth and ceiling? Why or why not?

 

 

John Manuel: No. A No. 1 overall system would have better balance. It is toward the top in ceiling of hitters thanks to Baez & Bryant, and I like Almora and remain intrigued by Jorge Soler and Arisemndy Alcantara. I think the Cubs are a top five system for sure, thanks to those 7 Top 100 types I mentioned earlier. But it just feels like the No. 1 system would have a few more sure things and more pitching depth. It's impossible to ignore 3 RH hitters with 80 raw power; that stands out at any time but especially right now when power seems to be in short supply.

 

Stop answering questions from like 3 people, wtf.

[davell]

Grant (NYC): What can you tell us about Christian Villanueva's tools, and was he in the next third of the top 30?

 

 

John Manuel: Scouts that I talked to like Villanueva fine, though there are questions about his swing. I got a Matt Dominguez comparison on Villanueva because it's not a fluid swing, but he's a very good defender at 3b. If it clicks offensively he has a chance to be a first-division regular; he's more of a second-division type to me now.

 

That is some serious depth right there. First division upside types that are in the upper levels of your system, that aren't in the top 10.

 

As for the answer on Maples and Blackburn, I don't consider us "pitching thin" at this point. I think that term is used somewhat for us having unreal hitting, which makes an averagish pitching crop look worse than it is.

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Johnny (GA): What's the skinny on pitcher Erick Leal, John? Is he a top 30 guy to you? Future SP or RP?

 

 

John Manuel: In the mix toward the back, sounds like more of a starting pitcher mix but wondering about just how much upside is there. Our reports out of the AZL are solid though, throws a lot of strikes and competes well.

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Eric (Cincinnati, OH): Is Matt Szczur still on your radar, and what does he project as right now?

 

 

John Manuel: On the radar but more of an extra outfielder. He's athletic for sure but the game does not come easy to him. It really comes down to the swing for him. His makeup and athleticism should allow him to become a solid reserve, but I'm not finding anyone who projects him as a regular.

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Brendan (Denver, CO): Thanks for the chat, these are a highlight of every off-season. I was eager to see whether Baez or Bryant would take #1, ow that the question is answered, how close was it? Also, how likely do you think it is that Bryant ends up in the OF? Thanks again!

 

 

John Manuel: It's extremely close. I definitely went back and forth with it, much to the chagrin of our photo editor Jim Shonerd, who organizes what pictures go on the cover of the magazine ... I believe there are organizations that have Bryant No. 1 on their internal Cubs lists, and I can see it. Ultimately, I was swayed by some scouts' questions about Bryant's ultimate ability to stay in the dirt, while Baez is definitely an infielder. It's impossible to really grade out Bryant's power above that of Baez, and Bryant's only real advantage is arm strength, which is a nice advantage but not terribly important. Baez gives you a little more ceiling if he can stay at SS, which is unlikely but not impossible. Honestly, I don't know if there's a "right" answer there. But I went with Baez.

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Jeff C (Matteson, IL): I was mildly surprised to see CJ Edwards ranked so highly. Does his # 3 ranking suggest that BA sees him as capable of sticking as a starter despite his weight issues?

 

 

John Manuel: Yes. Durability concerns continue with Edwards and will continue at his current size, but his stuff was firm deep into September; the 93-95 mph reports I got in his last Florida State League start were from outside the organization, not within it. Superstars are unique. Edwards has a chance to be a superstar. He certainly is unique. I understand the trepidation about him; the comps to him start with Oil Can Boyd and I had another scout talk about Satchel Paige. That's instructive only in that players that skinny don't come around that often. My man-crush on Edwards is out there, even though I've backed up a bit, and I don't think the Cubs officials would rank him ahead of, say, Almora or even maybe Soler because Almora is safe bet and Solar has such upside. Durability is the concern but frankly that makes him not too different from every other pitcher on the planet, right?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The depth here is insane. We're going to make the No. 4 overall pick and then have to legitimately debate if he makes our top 5.

I'll be very surprised if Javy has not used up his rookie eligibility by then. KB is 50/50 for me as well.

 

We'll see in a year. I would call your Javy timeline crazybuckets if not for the fact that it would leave me out of descriptions for your Bryant expectation.

 

I mean, is it theoretically possible? Sure. But to expect it?

 

Edit: Wait, I see the confusion. I meant *at the time of the pick*, not on the next official list.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Jesus H, someone actually asked this:

 

Mike (Kennesaw, Ga): How do The Cubs like 2011 10th round pick (signed for $395,000) Dan Lockhart? Like his dad/Braves star Keith, he has hit for avg, but only 1 HR since signing? Thanks for the chat

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What does the future look like for the pitcher acquired from the Yankees last season, Corey Black?

 

 

John Manuel: I always liked Corey Black in the Yankees system and at Faulkner (Ala.). There's some thought he can start down the line, as he's strong-bodied even if he's a big short. But most scouts I have talked to see him as a future middle reliever due to the amount of effort in his delivery.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The "reworked swing" is about to become the new kiss of death in this organization. That they are doing it with Olt doesn't say great things about their opinions on his ability to just heal and be back to normal.

[BeerHere]

The "reworked swing" is about to become the new kiss of death in this organization. That they are doing it with Olt doesn't say great things about their opinions on his ability to just heal and be back to normal.

Muscat had an article saying that his issues were actually related to allergies. Olt was quoted as saying that his vision was back to normal with his new (long-term) medication. It is Muscat so take that with a significant grain of salt.

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Bob (Mundelein, IL): Among the prospects the Cubs got near the trade deadline, do you take the starting repertoire of Ivan Pineyro or the reliever repertoire of Corey Black? Can Black be a starter?

 

 

John Manuel: I think you have characterized this fairly. Pineyro's stuff isn't as good as Black's, and according to some of the FSL people I talked to, Pineyro's breaking ball is a question. So even though he's more of a starter & has more pitchability than Black, Black's stuff is better and he has, to me, a higher floor and more upside, so I'd go with Black.

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Simon (Scotland): What do you think of Juan Carlos Paniagua?

 

 

John Manuel: I think we can't judge Latin American signees by their signing bonuses. I know it's special arm strength but the ability to make a pitch is different than the ability to throw hard. Long way to go for a 24-year-old.