The minor league season in review

[toonsterwu]

The more I look at the Garza trade, the more amazing it is. For a half season of Garza, during which he 4.46 ERA and 1.230 WHIP in 66.2 innings they got Edwards who now seems to be on his way to being a consensus top 10 pitcher in the minors, Olt (who I still like as a bounce back candidate after a probably much needed offseason), a solid back-end rotation/middle relief guy in Grimm, and a really solid relief prospect in Ramirez. That's just insane.

 

It's ... odd ... I guess. I really love Edwards, but I feel like he's getting slightly over-hyped. Heck, I'm still not sure I buy the argument that, in terms of rankings, Edwards should be ahead of Pierce Johnson, and I don't think Pierce is in anyone's consensus top 10 pitching prospect.

[mul21]

The more I look at the Garza trade, the more amazing it is. For a half season of Garza, during which he 4.46 ERA and 1.230 WHIP in 66.2 innings they got Edwards who now seems to be on his way to being a consensus top 10 pitcher in the minors, Olt (who I still like as a bounce back candidate after a probably much needed offseason), a solid back-end rotation/middle relief guy in Grimm, and a really solid relief prospect in Ramirez. That's just insane.

 

It's ... odd ... I guess. I really love Edwards, but I feel like he's getting slightly over-hyped. Heck, I'm still not sure I buy the argument that, in terms of rankings, Edwards should be ahead of Pierce Johnson, and I don't think Pierce is in anyone's consensus top 10 pitching prospect.

 

Would you feel the same way if Edwards was 6'4" and 200 lbs?

[toonsterwu]

If everything else stayed the same and he was 6'4" 200 pounds? I'd probably be a touch more comfortable talking about him as a top 10 pitching prospect, but I don't know if it would really change my mind that he feels a tad over-hyped. Don't get me wrong-

 

a) I really love CJ Edwards, and I indicated that pre-trade

b) I really hope he becomes an elite prospect.

 

To be quite honest, I haven't really pondered a top 10 pitching prospect list. I can come up with about 6-7 guys I would place as solid top 10 pitching prospects, but haven't had time to flesh it out (and probably won't flesh one out). I know, reading through these threads, that a couple guys I respect have been really effusive on him, so I hope he really is that good. That said, it goes beyond just durability for me. I'm not completely sold that his change and curve are consistently plus pitches, so as of now, I'm not sure his ceiling is as high as some suggest. I think it's better than ... uh (who was the "negative" national guy on him ... Parks?) says, as I think he's got solid mid-rotation ceiling, maybe, if we wanted to go "numbers", a possible 2/3. He had a ridiculously dominant season and deserves a ton of credit for that ... I'm not taking away from his awesome season. But if I'm ranking, my questions on his ceiling would combine with his durability questions to give me enough pause on him.

 

If his ch and cb take a step forward next year and he remains dominant in a A+/AA campaign? Then sure, I'd put him high. Durability questions aren't going to preclude me from ranking a guy high, on a personal level, if he's that good. It's just ... the combination of stuff has me pausing a bit on the hype ... and I really love Edwards potential/ability.

[sneakypower]

PLAYER DEVELOPMENT IN REVIEW: pre-Theo / post-Theo

 

i'd been passively curious about the development for players in the two years since the Theo takeover, so i went through and split up players' stats into two groups...and for the sake of perspective and balance, charted how they fared in relation to the two years prior; differences in BB rates were of chief interest at the outset of this exercise

 

obvious rousing successes

 

Alcantara

2010-2011: 158 G, 625 PA,  5 HR,  74 R,  61 RBI, 15 SB, 4.2% BB, 20.7% K, .275/.308/.371 (A-, A)
2012-2013: 218 G, 930 PA, 22 HR, 116 R, 120 RBI, 56 SB, 8.7% BB, 20.0% K, .284/.347/.450 (A+, AA)

:shock:

 

Lake

2010-2011: 264 G, 1050 PA, 26 HR, 155 R, 118 RBI, 69 SB, 5.9% BB, 22.8% K, .275/.328/.433 (R, A+, AA)
2012-2013: 195 G,  836 PA, 20 HR, 108 R,  84 RBI, 39 SB, 6.6% BB, 22.6% K, .289/.343/.447 (AA, AAA, MLB)

doesn't seem like an enormous jump in performance, but as we'll see in a minute, holding your own as you go up the ladder is far from a given

 

 

horrific failures

 

Brett Jackson

2010-2011: 247 G, 1106 PA, 32 HR, 190 R, 129 RBI, 51 SB, 13.3% BB, 24.3% K, .287/.386/.489 (A+, AA, AAA)
2012-2013: 245 G,  976 PA, 25 HR, 115 R,  83 RBI, 36 SB, 10.7% BB, 34.6% K, .227/.317/.404 (AAA, MLB)

oh, that...nice work Junior Lake!

 

Matt Szczur, power division

2010-2011: 134 G,  596 PA, 10 HR,  99 R, 56 RBI, 26 SB,  6.0% BB, 10.7% K, .304/.350/.432 (A-, A, A+)
2012-2013: 265 G, 1191 PA,  8 HR, 183 R, 97 RBI, 73 SB, 10.5% BB, 13.8% K, .274/.356/.376 (A+, AA)

nice BB rate & all, but all things considered i'd prefer to have those HRs back

 

Starlin Castro, hittin' em where they ain't? department

2010-2011: 283 G, 1221 PA, 13 HR, 144 R, 107 RBI, 32 SB, 5.2% BB, 13.6% K, .304/.343/.423, .345 BABIP (MLB)
2012-2013: 310 G, 1341 PA, 23 HR, 134 R, 118 RBI, 33 SB, 4.8% BB, 16.4% K, .262/.302/.386, .300 BABIP (MLB)

 

other

 

Castillo

2010-2011: 128 G, 515 PA, 24 HR, 71 R, 70 RBI, 0 SB, 11.1% BB, 21.3% K, .275/.367/.485 (A+, AAA)
2012-2013: 211 G, 800 PA, 20 HR, 80 R, 80 RBI, 2 SB,  9.9% BB, 23.3% K, .269/.357/.412 (AAA, MLB)

 

Vitters

2010-2011: 264 G, 1034 PA, 30 HR, 128 R, 150 RBI, 19 SB, 5.2% BB, 13.5% K, .277/.324/.439 (R, A+, AA)
2012-2013: 179 G,  678 PA, 24 HR,  76 R,  85 RBI,  9 SB, 7.6% BB, 19.7% K, .267/.332/.454 (AAA, MLB)

draw conclusions as you wish, i hope i don't need to add a disclaimer that i personally think player development was mainly responsible/to blame for any drastic changes; i just was interested to see these changes expressed

[biittner77]

Jackson always struck out a lot. That was always the big question about him: as he climbed up the ladder would he be able to get that to an acceptable level. I don't see how you can blame his collapse on anything the Cubs did player development wise.

 

I would have liked to see what Vitters could have done if he had stayed healthy.

[Guest]

Sahadev Sharma: Season review: Cubs prospects

 

If true, it's great to hear that Blackburn only had dead arm.

[davell]

Awesome recap by Sharma. Not hard to imagine that actually being his top 10 honestly. The Alex Cobb comp put on Nlackburn is cool. The dead arm thing explains his middle of the season struggles too.

[Little Slide Rooter]

biggest surprise/ most improved: Kyle Hendricks

 

biggest disappointment: 1. Soler and Almora not being able to play a full season. 2. Brett Jackson not being able to stop his free fall. Dishonorable mention: remember that time when we chose Trey McNutt over Chris Archer? As sweet as the Garza return looks, it would be like Pixie Sticks rolled in Fun Dip had we given up McMutt instead.

 

favorite long shot: Daury Torrez

 

any other categories can grow organically out of the wider discussion:

Something for nothing:

1. Ivan Pinyero

2. Eric Leal

[mul21]

biggest surprise/ most improved: Kyle Hendricks

 

biggest disappointment: 1. Soler and Almora not being able to play a full season. 2. Brett Jackson not being able to stop his free fall. Dishonorable mention: remember that time when we chose Trey McNutt over Chris Archer? As sweet as the Garza return looks, it would be like Pixie Sticks rolled in Fun Dip had we given up McMutt instead.

 

favorite long shot: Daury Torrez

 

any other categories can grow organically out of the wider discussion:

Something for nothing:

1. Ivan Pinyero

2. Eric Leal

 

No, and neither will anybody else because that's not what happened.

[sneakypower]

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=58644&p=2558449#p2558449

# The Cubs consider Trey McNutt a superior prospect to Chris Archer.