2014 Roster Discussion

[Johnny Sleeper]

Carlos Gonzalez has a career .774 OPS outside of Coors. This is on the second season in his career that his OPS has been over.800 outside of Coors. At Coors he is a .328/.388/.604 hitter for his career while on the road he is a .269/.324/.450 hitter. If the Cubs were to acquire him at the prospect cost the Rockies would want it would be a bigger disaster, on the field, then the Milton Bradley signing. The Cubs will be patient on offense waiting for the prospects to develop. Baez and Alcantara probably come up next year around mid-season. Bryant and Soler should be up in mid-2015. The second half of 2015 we will see what holes are really there and then pursue the FAs to fill those holes. This off-season if they are going to make a splash it will likely be Mashiro Tanaka.

[Guest]

Carlos Gonzalez has a career .774 OPS outside of Coors. This is on the second season in his career that his OPS has been over.800 outside of Coors. At Coors he is a .328/.388/.604 hitter for his career while on the road he is a .269/.324/.450 hitter. If the Cubs were to acquire him at the prospect cost the Rockies would want it would be a bigger disaster, on the field, then the Milton Bradley signing. The Cubs will be patient on offense waiting for the prospects to develop. Baez and Alcantara probably come up next year around mid-season. Bryant and Soler should be up in mid-2015. The second half of 2015 we will see what holes are really there and then pursue the FAs to fill those holes. This off-season if they are going to make a splash it will likely be Mashiro Tanaka.

 

Welcome!

 

Matt Holliday's non-Coors OPS was about the same before he became a Cardinal. Remember, just like Rockies home numbers are biased by Coors, so are their road numbers by playing 1/3 of their road games in LA, SF, and SD.

[Johnny Sleeper]

Holliday's road numbers were much better then CarGo's. Holliday's last three seasons with the Rockies his road splits were .280/.333/.486 in 2006, .301/.374/.485 in 2007 and .308/.405/.486 in 2008. Three years of .800+ road OPS. While CarGo has been great on the road this year the only season he posted an .800+ OPS on the road was 2009. Those were Holliday's age 26, 27 and 28 seasons while this is CarGo's age 27 season. Cargo is a very good player, but when you factor in the prospect cost and how far away the Cubs are from being a contender it just isn't worth it. Unless you think trading for CarGo along with signing Cano and Choo and trading for David Price is realistic this off-season. As that group of moves would make the Cubs playoff contenders. However, wouldn't it be better to let the cost controlled prospects develop and then add the missing piece(s) through FA instead of maxing out your payroll for a chance at the playoffs? There is no reason to return to the Hendry way of doing things and give up the farm and take on huge contracts for a window that would be narrower then having a team built around 22-25 year olds.

[Boris]

Wait. How is acquiring Carlos Gonzalez in anyway Jim Hendry-esque?

[Johnny Sleeper]

Wait. How is acquiring Carlos Gonzalez in anyway Jim Hendry-esque?

 

The same way trading the farm for Rammy and Derek Lee were. However, the bigger picture is that acquiring Carlos Gonzalez would require more follow up moves if the intent is to speed up the time frame of contention to 2014. Which would require signing players like Cano and Choo. If it would just be trading for Gonzalez while keeping the timeline where it is, which appears to be 2016 for a contending team, then why would you not keep Almora who just a very similar season in A ball to what Gonzalez did at the same age in the same league? Trading for Gonzalez as a single big move would be $17M to the 2016 payroll to fill a whole you expect to be filled for $600K. The Cubs are not lacking offensive prospects between Alcantara, Baez, Bryant, Vitters, Soler, Almora, Szczur, Ha, Vogelbach, Lake, Rizzo, Castro, Castillo, etc. the Cubs have more positions players then positions for them in the near future.

 

Why give up the prospects to fill a hole that can be filled internally by the time you are ready to contend? Now if the debate was to add a legitimate ace to the staff that would be a different discussion as there isn't a pitcher in the organization that you can say projects to being an ace. However, you are talking about trading for a guy in Gonzalez that will be making $17M in 2016 then $20M in 2017 then hitting FA again so you have him for two seasons that you expect to be contending in without having to get in a bidding war to keep him in what will be his declining years. It is a short-sighted move that makes casual fans happy because the Cubs make a big off-season splash, but it does nothing improve the team's ability to make the playoffs much less win if they get there and it hurts their ability to contend long-term by giving up long-term assets in the form of prospects and future cash.

[davell]

Welcome! As a long term fan of the rebuild(even if it has been forced) I disagree with 2016 being the target year. I think adding CarGo and Tanaka would give us a relatively decent shot in 2014, with bounce back seasons from Castro and Rizzo. Javy could come up and contribute by the middle of the year. At worst, I think 2015 is the true target year, even if I see them improving for years upon years after that. Having a veteran bat with pop in the middle of your lineup is a good thing, helps out the younger guys as well. Not to mention you'd get him for his 29-32 seasons at a fair price. As much as we want them to, not all of our system is going to pan out and the idea is to use some as currency. We've got plenty of depth, use some of it to add a star.

[Guest]

the cubs didn't trade the farm for aramis or lee, they stole both of them.

[SouthSideRyan]

Jesus, 2016.

[seanimal]

Jesus, 2016.

 

yeah, [expletive] that

[Johnny Sleeper]

Jesus, 2016.

 

To be legitimate contenders, yes. Do you honestly see a way to make them faster contenders for a World Series? Not just a playoff birth which they have a shot at in 2015. The only way to get them into World Series contenders this year would be to trade Baez, Vogelbach and Pierce Johnson for David Price. Then trade Soler, Alcantara and Szczur to the Rockies for CarGo. Then go out and sign Cano, Choo and some bullpen help. Then you end up with a rotation of Price, Samardzija, Wood, EJax and Arrieta/Raley/Hendricks/etc. A line-up of Rizzo, Cano, Castro, Valbuena, Choo, CarGo, Shierholtz and Castillo with Barney and Lake as your primary guys off the bench. However, there is no way they will send the payroll that high, $150M range. So they will continue to let the prospects develop and do very little in the off-season with the possible one big move being Masahiro Tanaka.

[SouthSideRyan]

If you're a playoff contender, you're a world series contender. Punting 4 [expletive] seasons would be a disgrace.

[davell]

The farm system is as strong as anyone's. with lots of guys in the lower levels that can break out as well. With another very high draft pick on the way. There are zero long term, unwanted contracts on the books. After 2014 and Soriano, no contracts whatsoever by the prior regime. There is plenty of depth and competition on the roster right now that you could see 70 wins, maybe a tad more, if they did nothing this offseason. Literally, the ONLY reason not to start adding legit, impact full type talent right now is if Ricketts can't or won't allow it. If we're a 70ish win team heading into the offseason with 30 mill or so to play with, so not to go over last years budget-We can add 10 wins to that by making one impact trade and one upper class FA signing. And the farm system would still easily be top 10, with plenty of breakthrough types to carry it much higher.

[Guest]

Jesus, 2016.

 

To be legitimate contenders, yes. Do you honestly see a way to make them faster contenders for a World Series? Not just a playoff birth which they have a shot at in 2015. The only way to get them into World Series contenders this year would be to trade Baez, Vogelbach and Pierce Johnson for David Price. Then trade Soler, Alcantara and Szczur to the Rockies for CarGo. Then go out and sign Cano, Choo and some bullpen help. Then you end up with a rotation of Price, Samardzija, Wood, EJax and Arrieta/Raley/Hendricks/etc. A line-up of Rizzo, Cano, Castro, Valbuena, Choo, CarGo, Shierholtz and Castillo with Barney and Lake as your primary guys off the bench. However, there is no way they will send the payroll that high, $150M range. So they will continue to let the prospects develop and do very little in the off-season with the possible one big move being Masahiro Tanaka.

They do not need to add Price, CarGo, Cano, Choo and bullpen help to be a contender.

 

BTW - there's no way Baez is moved for an overrated Price.

[Sammy Sofa]

Wait, is Hendry trading for Aramis and Lee now considered a bad thing by some people for some reason? That doesn't make any sense.

[davell]

Yeah, no [expletive]. Heading into 2004, we had as good of a team as anyone and it wasn't like it was old as dirt or anything.

[Johnny Sleeper]

Wait, is Hendry trading for Aramis and Lee now considered a bad thing by some people for some reason? That doesn't make any sense.

 

No. However, they were part of Hendry's philosophy of never cultivating the farm. The player development under Hendry was terrible and the prospects that were traded didn't pan out and overall were of a much lower quality then the top end of the Cubs' system now. While Hendry was GM the Cubs were the lowest spending team on amateur talent in all of baseball year after year which is why there was so little come up from the farm. How much of that was on Hendry and how much was due to ownership is up for debate. However, the fact remains that under Hendry's watch the farm system was horrible.

[Sammy Sofa]

Wait, is Hendry trading for Aramis and Lee now considered a bad thing by some people for some reason? That doesn't make any sense.

 

No. However, they were part of Hendry's philosophy of never cultivating the farm. The player development under Hendry was terrible and the prospects that were traded didn't pan out and overall were of a much lower quality then the top end of the Cubs' system now. While Hendry was GM the Cubs were the lowest spending team on amateur talent in all of baseball year after year which is why there was so little come up from the farm. How much of that was on Hendry and how much was due to ownership is up for debate. However, the fact remains that under Hendry's watch the farm system was horrible.

 

Trading for good players isn't something one avoids; if anything you strive to have a better farm system in part to be able to do that more often. Trading for guys like Aramis and Lee aren't a knock against Hendry and didn't hinder the Cubs' ability to develop internally; they were just not good at selecting and developing talent. But those actual trades themselves were excellent moves.

[Guest]

Wait, is Hendry trading for Aramis and Lee now considered a bad thing by some people for some reason? That doesn't make any sense.

 

No. However, they were part of Hendry's philosophy of never cultivating the farm. The player development under Hendry was terrible and the prospects that were traded didn't pan out and overall were of a much lower quality then the top end of the Cubs' system now. While Hendry was GM the Cubs were the lowest spending team on amateur talent in all of baseball year after year which is why there was so little come up from the farm. How much of that was on Hendry and how much was due to ownership is up for debate. However, the fact remains that under Hendry's watch the farm system was horrible.

Your facts in this post are not, in fact, facts.

[davell]

Look, I get that. But the farm produced Aramis, DLee, Nomar, and Harden during his time. Just didn't produce the long term internal answers on top of those moves. We've got enough currently stocked to where it'll be a major disappointment not to be able to do both. If we wind up with 2 long term positional players, a few bench/platoon guys, a SP or 2, and the majority of a pen-the system has done its job as long as its given us enough trade bait to get some impact talent to surround that with. To where it doesn't mean we're trying to add 4 long term position players and 3/5 of a rotation via FA. And we won't be in that position. Because the FO is intelligent. As long as Ricketts allows for it, it's perfectly fine adding long term pieces this offseason. Even if it doesn't result in a playoff berth in 2014.

[Guest]

Wait, is Hendry trading for Aramis and Lee now considered a bad thing by some people for some reason? That doesn't make any sense.

 

No. However, they were part of Hendry's philosophy of never cultivating the farm. The player development under Hendry was terrible and the prospects that were traded didn't pan out and overall were of a much lower quality then the top end of the Cubs' system now. While Hendry was GM the Cubs were the lowest spending team on amateur talent in all of baseball year after year which is why there was so little come up from the farm. How much of that was on Hendry and how much was due to ownership is up for debate. However, the fact remains that under Hendry's watch the farm system was horrible.

Your facts in this post are not, in fact, facts.

Just to further this point...here is actual data from BA:

 

From 2007 - 2011, the Cubs spent an average of $6,481,420 in draft bonuses, good for 15th in MLB. During that time, they were often drafting at the end of the first round, limiting their spending compared to the top of the drafts.

 

Obviously, this excludes international spending, but the Cubs were active in Latin America during that time, as well.

 

The problem wasn't that they didn't try or didn't emphasize the minors. Hendry started as the farm director, after all. He had a philosophy of building the farm. The problem was that they did a piss poor job picking and developing players.

[Fro]

It's worth kicking the tires on Gonzalez for sure but I wouldn't give up Bryant or Baez for him. Of course if I'm the Rockies I'd probably insist on it.

 

I guess that would be an offseason trade, so Almora and Soler will have a chance to perform well in the Fall League & show they're over their injuries.

[Boris]

I guess the folks advocating no trades giving up all of our positional player talent are content with penciling in Rizzo and Castro as our "veterans"? This team is gonna need at least one veteran on the offensive side that isn't home grown. Youth is not something to rely on.

 

Even though the season isn't over, and I am sure I will receive flak for this, look at the Rays. If there is one thing I could point to as being their downfall this season it is a lack of veteran leadership and a reliance on unseasoned youth. It is sprinkled in their lineup and glaringly obvious in their rotation. I'm sure many will disagree, but I am fully confident claiming it will be their undoing this season.

[NOLA]

I guess the folks advocating no trades giving up all of our positional player talent are content with penciling in Rizzo and Castro as our "veterans"? This team is gonna need at least one veteran on the offensive side that isn't home grown. Youth is not something to rely on.

 

Even though the season isn't over, and I am sure I will receive flak for this, look at the Rays. If there is one thing I could point to as being their downfall this season it is a lack of veteran leadership and a reliance on unseasoned youth. It is sprinkled in their lineup and glaringly obvious in their rotation. I'm sure many will disagree, but I am fully confident claiming it will be their undoing this season.

 

David Price has pitched over 5 MLB seasons, played in 4 playoff series, is a 3 time All Star and he won the Cy Young.

Evan Longoria has played 6 MLB seasons, appeared in 5 playoff series, was ROY in 2008, is a 3 time All Star and he has 2 gold gloves.

 

They are also in the playoffs right now. I wouldn't want to play them if I were Boston.

[Johnny Sleeper]

I guess the folks advocating no trades giving up all of our positional player talent are content with penciling in Rizzo and Castro as our "veterans"? This team is gonna need at least one veteran on the offensive side that isn't home grown. Youth is not something to rely on.

 

Even though the season isn't over, and I am sure I will receive flak for this, look at the Rays. If there is one thing I could point to as being their downfall this season it is a lack of veteran leadership and a reliance on unseasoned youth. It is sprinkled in their lineup and glaringly obvious in their rotation. I'm sure many will disagree, but I am fully confident claiming it will be their undoing this season.

 

 

Is there something wrong with being a big market version of the Rays? Imagine if the Rays had the same ability to keep their players as the Cubs will? If you give the Rays a modest $110M payroll they still have James Shields, Carl Crawford and could have added someone like Prince Fielder to be their DH and they are running away with their division instead of just being a wild card team with a $60M payroll. The ability to not keep the players they develop has been the undoing of the Rays for the last several years. Just like it is the reason teams like the Royals, Pirates, A's, etc have such small windows when they do get a nice homegrown core together because they can only keep them for 4-5 years before they have to be traded for prospects due to finances.

 

When the Cubs get their revenue up to a big market team in the next few years from the advertising and new TV deals they will have no issues keeping players and adding what they need. Theo has said he expects to get the payroll back up to where it was before he got there, $135M, in the next few years then grow it from there as they add new revenue. Wrigley needs a lot of upgrades and the organization has to pay for it themselves which limits their ability to spend. Improving the facilities with things like indoor batting cages, film rooms, a clubhouse that is on par with other major league teams, etc will not only help the players develop but also help attract FAs who do not want to play in a stadium that has facilities that were average, at best, in the 1960s.

[Guest]

@CSNMooney: Theo looking ahead to offseason: “I don’t think we’re going to have the ability to add like multiple impact pieces in free agency.”

 

So at least one is on the table, I hope.