Random Cubs Musings

[Cubswin11]

Less than 2 months since Bryant's season ended and it's like you all forgot he's an engine of death.

 

who struck out in AA/AAA about as much as adam dunn did in his MLB career

 

And still managed to hit .300 with a truckload of home runs and walks.

 

The tunnel vision with K's/whiffs with Bryant, I get it but it's getting taken beyond what it is. You can't make a single number pass/fail like that, with Bryant there's plenty of reason not to freak out about it.

While I agree mostly that despite the K's he's able to make up for it by hitting for a lot of power and take walks. But he also did have like a .370 BABIP this year, I think just about everything we have on him as of now points to him being a pretty low average guy on a whole with a few mediocre BA seasons sprinkled in with inflated BABIP's.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Less than 2 months since Bryant's season ended and it's like you all forgot he's an engine of death.

 

who struck out in AA/AAA about as much as adam dunn did in his MLB career

 

And still managed to hit .300 with a truckload of home runs and walks.

 

The tunnel vision with K's/whiffs with Bryant, I get it but it's getting taken beyond what it is. You can't make a single number pass/fail like that, with Bryant there's plenty of reason not to freak out about it.

 

That batting average was also heavily Babip inflated.

 

 

Soler, Alcantara and Baez combined to hit .299 at Iowa this year and like .220 in the majors. It is a steep jump, especially when you have big holes in your swing.

 

I expect Bryant to be extremely valuable because power and defense, but I don't expect a high OBP guy.

Edited October 1, 2014 by Hairyducked Idiot

[TruffleShuffle]

say bryant hits .220 in 500 at bats. if we assume a massive K-rate like 35%, then he's striking out 167 times. but he also hits like 35 home runs. so his BABIP would be (110 - 35)/(500 - 167 - 35), or .252. now give him 80 walks (which would be a walk rate of 13.7%, which is slightly lower than his walk rate in the minor leagues this year. that gives him an OBP of .327. and that's with a rob deer-esque hit tool and a horrible BABIP. if you want to compare him to a guy who has a lot of swing-and-miss in his game, but a lot of walks and home runs, ryan howard had a .376 OBP in what would be considered his peak years.

 

bottom line, it's really hard for a guy mashing 40 home runs a year and walking a lot to have an OBP near the league average.

[Guest]

Less than 2 months since Bryant's season ended and it's like you all forgot he's an engine of death.

 

who struck out in AA/AAA about as much as adam dunn did in his MLB career

 

And still managed to hit .300 with a truckload of home runs and walks.

 

The tunnel vision with K's/whiffs with Bryant, I get it but it's getting taken beyond what it is. You can't make a single number pass/fail like that, with Bryant there's plenty of reason not to freak out about it.

While I agree mostly that despite the K's he's able to make up for it by hitting for a lot of power and take walks. But he also did have like a .370 BABIP this year, I think just about everything we have on him as of now points to him being a pretty low average guy on a whole with a few mediocre BA seasons sprinkled in with inflated BABIP's.

 

This especially is a point of contention for me. Bryant's a .327 hitter as a professional that hit .355 at AA and .295 at AAA(fun aside, Bryant had 297 PA at both levels). I don't think he's going to be Ryan Braun and hit .320 at the MLB level, but I think too many people are just blindly assuming he'll be a low BA guy because he strikes out more than average. He makes a ton of hard contact, avoids weak contact with his great eye(and his K's for that matter), and hits bunches of home runs. Combine that with the averages he's put up to date and there's a lot pointing that he's capable of a relatively high BABIP or simply a pretty good AVG consistently(or both).

[Guest]

i really hope you're right, because our lineup would be stupid scary with rizzo/soler/bryant as a 3/4/5 (whatever order you like) if he's that good

[Hairyducked Idiot]

say bryant hits .220 in 500 at bats. if we assume a massive K-rate like 35%, then he's striking out 167 times. but he also hits like 35 home runs. so his BABIP would be (110 - 35)/(500 - 167 - 35), or .252. now give him 80 walks (which would be a walk rate of 13.7%, which is slightly lower than his walk rate in the minor leagues this year. that gives him an OBP of .327. and that's with a rob deer-esque hit tool and a horrible BABIP. if you want to compare him to a guy who has a lot of swing-and-miss in his game, but a lot of walks and home runs, ryan howard had a .376 OBP in what would be considered his peak years.

 

bottom line, it's really hard for a guy mashing 40 home runs a year and walking a lot to have an OBP near the league average.

 

Bryant's not going to be hitting 35 HRs per 500 ABs.

 

Giancarlo Stanton himself only averages 33.6 per 500 ABs. And while I like Bryant and he *can* become Stanton, I don't think that should be the median projection.

[Sammy Sofa]

his great eye

 

HE HAS TWO, DAMMIT.

 

http://blogimages.thescore.com/mlb/files/2013/12/USPW_983550-copy.jpg

[Hairyducked Idiot]

but I think too many people are just blindly assuming he'll be a low BA guy because he strikes out more than average.

 

I think too many people are looking at the slash line and trying to come up with ways to handwave away the peripherals that don't support it.

[Guest]

but I think too many people are just blindly assuming he'll be a low BA guy because he strikes out more than average.

 

I think too many people are looking at the slash line and trying to come up with ways to handwave away the peripherals that don't support it.

I think you are being a Kyle.

[Guest]

but I think too many people are just blindly assuming he'll be a low BA guy because he strikes out more than average.

 

I think too many people are looking at the slash line and trying to come up with ways to handwave away the peripherals that don't support it.

I think you are being a Kyle.

 

I think he is being right.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I think you are being a Kyle.

 

I think he is being right.

 

 

Tomato, tomato.

[Guest]

while we argue over this, addison russell is hanging out somewhere being possibly a better prospect, so that's pretty awesome

[Hairyducked Idiot]

while we argue over this, addison russell is hanging out somewhere being possibly a better prospect, so that's pretty awesome

 

Plus a 325 OBP and 525 SLG with decent defensive value is like a 6-win player.

[sneakypower]

if he's under .325 then this rebuild most assuredly becomes a failure

 

MLB average is .315 or something. The rebuild can't be a success with Bryant as an average or very slightly better OBP guy with defensive value and insane power?

'insane power' amounts to .250 ISO in today's game

 

.325 OBP limits assumes BA cap of like .240...so yeah, if he's hitting .240/.320/.490 he's barely a league average LF - you're in the 2014 Dustin Ackley / Martin Prado neighborhood in value

 

and this is a guy who seems to be considered franchise cornerstone #2

[Guest]

if he's under .325 then this rebuild most assuredly becomes a failure

 

MLB average is .315 or something. The rebuild can't be a success with Bryant as an average or very slightly better OBP guy with defensive value and insane power?

'insane power' amounts to .250 ISO in today's game

 

.325 OBP limits assumes BA cap of like .240...so yeah, if he's hitting .240/.320/.490 he's barely a league average LF - you're in the 2014 Dustin Ackley / Martin Prado neighborhood in value

 

and this is a guy who seems to be considered franchise cornerstone #2

 

but you're saying if bryant is that guy, this rebuild is almost assuredly a failure? there are a bunch of extremely talented dudes. some will do better than expected, some will do worse. i don't think the fate of the franchise hinges on any one guy.

[sneakypower]

but you're saying if bryant is that guy, this rebuild is almost assuredly a failure? there are a bunch of extremely talented dudes. some will do better than expected, some will do worse. i don't think the fate of the franchise hinges on any one guy.

at the very least i think it pushes the timeline back

 

i don't personally scout Bryant as a league-average OBP guy, mind you

[TruffleShuffle]

say bryant hits .220 in 500 at bats. if we assume a massive K-rate like 35%, then he's striking out 167 times. but he also hits like 35 home runs. so his BABIP would be (110 - 35)/(500 - 167 - 35), or .252. now give him 80 walks (which would be a walk rate of 13.7%, which is slightly lower than his walk rate in the minor leagues this year. that gives him an OBP of .327. and that's with a rob deer-esque hit tool and a horrible BABIP. if you want to compare him to a guy who has a lot of swing-and-miss in his game, but a lot of walks and home runs, ryan howard had a .376 OBP in what would be considered his peak years.

 

bottom line, it's really hard for a guy mashing 40 home runs a year and walking a lot to have an OBP near the league average.

 

Bryant's not going to be hitting 35 HRs per 500 ABs.

 

Giancarlo Stanton himself only averages 33.6 per 500 ABs. And while I like Bryant and he *can* become Stanton, I don't think that should be the median projection.

 

he's also not going to have a .250 babip and probably won't strike out like mark reynolds.

[Cubswin11]

say bryant hits .220 in 500 at bats. if we assume a massive K-rate like 35%, then he's striking out 167 times. but he also hits like 35 home runs. so his BABIP would be (110 - 35)/(500 - 167 - 35), or .252. now give him 80 walks (which would be a walk rate of 13.7%, which is slightly lower than his walk rate in the minor leagues this year. that gives him an OBP of .327. and that's with a rob deer-esque hit tool and a horrible BABIP. if you want to compare him to a guy who has a lot of swing-and-miss in his game, but a lot of walks and home runs, ryan howard had a .376 OBP in what would be considered his peak years.

 

bottom line, it's really hard for a guy mashing 40 home runs a year and walking a lot to have an OBP near the league average.

 

Bryant's not going to be hitting 35 HRs per 500 ABs.

 

Giancarlo Stanton himself only averages 33.6 per 500 ABs. And while I like Bryant and he *can* become Stanton, I don't think that should be the median projection.

 

he's also not going to have a .250 babip and probably won't strike out like mark reynolds.

Reynolds MLB k% this year was .4% lower than Bryant's at AAA and his career k% is only 3.3% higher than Bryant's % in AAA this year.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Why won't he strike out as much as Mark Reynolds?

 

Reynolds skipped AAA, but at AA he had a 24.5% K-rate in 282 PAs, age 22 and 23 seasons.

 

Bryant was at 25.9% in AA in 297 PAs in his age 22 season.

[TruffleShuffle]

i just don't understand the assumption that he's not going to hit for average. if you looked purely at ryan howard's K rates in the minors you'd assume he wouldn't hit for average, but lo and behold when he was in his prime he was hitting in the .270 to .300 range with truckloads of walks and almost 50 home runs a season. and bryant could quite conceivably have a better hit tool than howard.

 

i really don't see much way that bryant settles into a rob deer career path. maybe he'll be under .325 obp, but i think that would happen if he just whiffs abysmally like baez did this year, and never makes enough contact to take advantage of his power.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

.325 OBP limits assumes BA cap of like .240...so yeah, if he's hitting .240/.320/.490 he's barely a league average LF - you're in the 2014 Dustin Ackley / Martin Prado neighborhood in value

 

and this is a guy who seems to be considered franchise cornerstone #2

 

Dustin Ackley? He hit 241/293/398 this year. Odd comp.

 

Prado hit 282/321/412 and had 2.6 wins in 143 games. Add another 80 points of SLG and a few more games and I'd totally take that as a career average from any prospect.

[Guest]

i just don't understand the assumption that he's not going to hit for average. if you looked purely at ryan howard's K rates in the minors you'd assume he wouldn't hit for average, but lo and behold when he was in his prime he was hitting in the .270 to .300 range with truckloads of walks and almost 50 home runs a season. and bryant could quite conceivably have a better hit tool than howard.

 

i really don't see much way that bryant settles into a rob deer career path. maybe he'll be under .325 obp, but i think that would happen if he just whiffs abysmally like baez did this year, and never makes enough contact to take advantage of his power.

 

ok, if he might be that guy, that still doesn't make it his median projection

[TruffleShuffle]

say bryant hits .220 in 500 at bats. if we assume a massive K-rate like 35%, then he's striking out 167 times. but he also hits like 35 home runs. so his BABIP would be (110 - 35)/(500 - 167 - 35), or .252. now give him 80 walks (which would be a walk rate of 13.7%, which is slightly lower than his walk rate in the minor leagues this year. that gives him an OBP of .327. and that's with a rob deer-esque hit tool and a horrible BABIP. if you want to compare him to a guy who has a lot of swing-and-miss in his game, but a lot of walks and home runs, ryan howard had a .376 OBP in what would be considered his peak years.

 

bottom line, it's really hard for a guy mashing 40 home runs a year and walking a lot to have an OBP near the league average.

 

Bryant's not going to be hitting 35 HRs per 500 ABs.

 

Giancarlo Stanton himself only averages 33.6 per 500 ABs. And while I like Bryant and he *can* become Stanton, I don't think that should be the median projection.

 

he's also not going to have a .250 babip and probably won't strike out like mark reynolds.

Reynolds MLB k% this year was .4% lower than Bryant's at AAA and his career k% is only 3.3% higher than Bryant's % in AAA this year.

 

shall we set the over/under on bryant strikeouts per year at 200? i'll parlay that under bet with an over on the .325 obp and start planning my retirement at 55.

Edited October 1, 2014 by TruffleShuffle

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Ryan Howard is probably the high-end comp offensively. All Bryant has to do is average 50 HRs/year in his prime. Easy peasy.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

shall we discuss his k% in every other season of his major league career?

 

Not until we have Kris Bryant's career to make it a useful comparison for this discussion.