2014 Draft Discussion

[Guest]

Zimmer seems to have cemented himself as the best college hitter in the draft and I don't think it's as much of a lock that he'll move from CF as you think, but I'd hate to pass on a decidedly better prospect just because of the volatility of arms.

[NDCubs]

Do you think that if this climb continues and his power develops he is not worthy. One of the biggest question marks going in was his lack of power production. That seems to really be developing now. If he grades out as prospect they think can hit .300 with 25 while playing plus defenses, plus baserunning and a plus plus arm I think he's worthy. Obviously every scout will see things a little different but he seems to be gaining traction. You guys are probably right and I know we need too flight P's but I see a high floor, high WAR player that should move quickly and hit the majors when the rest of our guys do. I know how crazy I sound right now I just can't talk myself into a pitcher. I won't be upset with Beede/Aiken/Hoffman and surely not with Rodon/Kolek but I think we have a legit option outside of Pitchers.

[davell]

Just because you take a HS arm in the 1st doesn't mean you can't turn it into something else a year or two later. Giolito, after TJS and extremely few minor league innings(under 40) has the ability to bring back a major trade piece.

 

If we take Kolek or Aiken at 4, the idea may just be that they'll have higher trade value quicker than the not quite as talented bats.

[imb]

yes, a pitcher may get injured or flame out. But when the talent appears to be PITCHER, PITCHER, PITCHER, PITCHER, PITCHER, PITCHER (huuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuge gaaaaaaaaaaaaap) hitter, hitter, hitter, I think you roll the dice. The odds an elite pitching prospect flames out or gets injured arent likely higher than the odds an overdrafted hitter is actually better than his average projections.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

yes, a pitcher may get injured or flame out. But when the talent appears to be PITCHER, PITCHER, PITCHER, PITCHER, PITCHER, PITCHER (huuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuge gaaaaaaaaaaaaap) hitter, hitter, hitter, I think you roll the dice. The odds an elite pitching prospect flames out or gets injured arent likely higher than the odds an overdrafted hitter is actually better than his average projections.

 

If that's what it comes down to, I guess (or maybe look at the whole not signing thing).

 

But I hold out hope that the Cubs like one of the hitters more than the media does, and that they're right.

[Guest]

Do you think that if this climb continues and his power develops he is not worthy. One of the biggest question marks going in was his lack of power production. That seems to really be developing now. If he grades out as prospect they think can hit .300 with 25 while playing plus defenses, plus baserunning and a plus plus arm I think he's worthy. Obviously every scout will see things a little different but he seems to be gaining traction. You guys are probably right and I know we need too flight P's but I see a high floor, high WAR player that should move quickly and hit the majors when the rest of our guys do. I know how crazy I sound right now I just can't talk myself into a pitcher. I won't be upset with Beede/Aiken/Hoffman and surely not with Rodon/Kolek but I think we have a legit option outside of Pitchers.

 

If Zimmer grades out as a guy who can hit .300 with 25 hours and plus defense, he'll be gone before the Cubs pick. The biggest questions will be his contact rate and power (and he might have to shift from CF to RF but there's no question he'd be an elite defender in RF).

[Guest]

@kileymcd: About 50 scouts crammed in behind home to see Conway HS (SC) RHP Grant Holmes sit 92-95 in the 1st, hitting 96 w/three pitch mix. UF commit.

 

@Clint_BA: Conway (SC) RHP Grant Holmes 91-94, touching 95 in first two innings

 

@FPilierePG: Grant Holmes works 92-95, 96 in the first - flashed his 81 hammer

 

@FPilierePG: Holmes sat 92-94 and was extra sharp in the 2nd. And doesn't over rely on his breaking ball when he could

 

@FPilierePG: The fact that Grant Holmes can put his plus breaking ball wherever he wants and pinpoint it to get out of jams is what makes him different

 

@FPilierePG: Some questions on this - Holmes calls his breaking ball a slider but it has more of an AJ Burnett curveball bite and shape

 

@FPilierePG: What a sequence from Holmes to end 5th. Fell behind w/ 93 mph fastballs to go 2-0 then followed w/ 3 changeups & knockout hook on 3-2 for K

 

@FPilierePG: Remember that awful Major League 3: Back to the Minors? The scene where Hog Ellis threw that cgi CB is what Holmes' looked like tonight

 

@DanMKirby: #MLBDraft @loubezjakfmn: Conway 7, South Florence 0 Final Grant Holmes 16 Ks, complete game 2-hitter.

 

Sounds like a top 10 pick.

[Guest]

Very interesting read from McDaniel on why Hoffman, Rodon and Turner are struggling: http://sbb.scout.com/2/1389607.html

 

Hoffman's spring has been up and down, but the velocity is still there, working 93-96 and hitting 97 mph this past Friday with a changeup that was consistently above average. The problems were with everything else, as Hoffman's rushed his delivery, flying open at times, which affected the life on his fastball, the sharpness of his curveball and his command. He flashed a couple 60 curveballs, but threw mostly 50s and 55s while his fastball had just average life and he left a lot of pitches up, with a weak UMBC team squaring up mid-90's velocity way more than they should.

 

I'm not worried long-term as Hoffman actually was snapping off that 65 curveball consistently on flat ground while he warmed up before the bullpen, but then I saw his delivery wasn't as clean as it was on the Cape, which affected what came out of his hand on a mound. ECU's defense has been bad this season and Hoffman has already thrown to four different catchers, with scouts specualting that the poor receiving is affecting his pitch selection. The guy from the Cape is still in there and could come out at any point, but it's hard to say what I saw this Friday is a slam dunk top 5 pick at this point. I would still look at him in that range and I have him in my top 5 right now, but it sounds like clubs have him anywhere from 2 to 10 depending on how often/when they've seen him and their preferences on pitching prospects.

 

Rodon's stuff was down from last summer's peak, but it's basically the same as it was at this point last year, so it's possible that peak Rodon comes back. What has me worried is that he isn't a great athlete, has had real back problems for years and his delivery is not easy, which is in turn making his command fringy when he has to effort to keep his stuff above average. He may throw mid-90's again, but scouts know he won't be throwing that hard in his late 20's; the question is when he settles in as the low-90's pitcher that he was last week. That future Rodon has a solid average fastball and changeup and a plus to plus-plus slider, hopefully with average command after some adjustments to his delivery.

 

That guy is a solid #3 starter and is definitely in demand in the top 10 picks, but isn't even really a candidate for the #1 pick anymore. It will be much easier in a few more weeks to stack up how the top prospects (which happen to all be pitchers right now) fall in order. As I say in a soon-to-be-released podcast, this class doesn't have anyone right now that would crack the top 3 picks last year. So, if I told you that players 4-10 in last year's class could be put in almost any order, people wouldn't blink. This year, that part you can shuffle starts at the very top.

 

For Turner, Kiley said he's getting too spread out and loading his hands too far from contact. He's too small to get away with that. Also, Kiley says he hasn't seen Turner's 80 speed return after his foot injury his sophomore year.

[Guest]

Per Jim Callis, the Cubs will have a draft bonus pool of $8,352,200 (sixth most in baseball) based on their 10 picks in the first 10 rounds: http://jimcallis.mlblogs.com/2014/04/02/draft-international-values-increase-by-1-7-percent/#more-201

[Guest]

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24511578/scouts-watch-what-a-rods-record-setting-nephew-does-for-encore

 

Is this guy a legit draft prospect or is he just getting hyped because of his uncle

[Guest]

@kileymcd: Still impossible to rank the top of the draft board right now but Brady Aiken threw a 10 K no hitter last night so he's doing his job.

[Guest]

Dan Kirby with his top 20 options for the Cubs at 1.4: http://throughthefencebaseball.com/2014-mlb-draft-exhausting-chicago-cubs-choices-at-no-4/42297

[A New Era]

I can't wait to see how things shake out over the next couple of months. Last year I don't remember how close to the draft it was but we kinda just had 3 names to focus on. The year before that we heard a lot of Cubs love Almora rumors and that one report that Theo was really impressed with Correa at the plate. Right now though, it could be half a dozen + right now we should be looking at (as possible Cubs picks). We just have that McLeod really liked Jackson thing to go by right now.

[Guest]

Dan Kirby with his top 20 options for the Cubs at 1.4: http://throughthefencebaseball.com/2014-mlb-draft-exhausting-chicago-cubs-choices-at-no-4/42297

 

Tyler Kolek, RHP, Shepherd HS (Texas)

As dominant as Aiken has been, Kolek has been even more so. The 6′-5″, 240 pound right-hander is just abusing his peers, and I think he would be just as effective from 80 feet out. In 27.1 shutout innings, he has 62 K/1 BB and has allowed just three hits. In his last start, his last pitch — pitch 65 — registered 98 mph on the radar gun of Kendall Rogers of Perfect Game. He has touched 102 mph this season and adds a slider that has devastating potential. Aside from refining his change-up, there isn’t much left to work on and he should be a quick riser to the majors. I often am worried about high school arms that can hit triple-digits so early, but with his size, it isn’t much of a concern. Committed to TCU.

 

ok i'm sold

[Guest]

Erix (NYU)

What's the absolute farthest you can see Rodon falling to in June?

Klaw

Seems like the Cubs at 4 would be a stopping point for him - a large-market team with no historical aversion to taking, shall we say, players with his likely bonus demands. After that, it gets dicey.

[bukie]

Eeeeeexcellent.

[davell]

The White Sox supposedly are looking for a college pitcher. Law guesses they'd take Hoffman over Beede or Rodon. And said it in a way that he'd do the same. So, if you try and connect a few dots here, Rodon seems almost likely to be sitting there at 4. Astros supposedly looking at Aiken, Marlins connected to Kolek.

 

If we're choosing between Rodon and Beede at 4, I'll be pretty [expletive] happy.

 

At this EXACT moment though, I think my order of preference is....

 

Kolek, Rodon, Aiken, Beede, and Hoffman.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Kolek or bust.

[Guest]

Nick (Chicago)

Rick Hahn has stated the White Sox are targeting a college pitcher with their #3 pick in the draft. Who offers more upside Hoffman or Beede?

Klaw

Hoffman. More velocity, great athlete, underdeveloped as a pitcher right now. Beede's the safer pick of the two, but I would bet that if they have both guys staring them in the face (and Rodon too) they'd take Hoffman.

 

sam (houston)

I know a prep righty has never been selected first overall, but should the Astros seriously consider taking Kolek with their first pick? It seems like his stock is rising.

Klaw

History of prep RHP that high in the draft isn't favorable and his secondary stuff isn't that advanced. I prefer Aiken, considering all factors.

 

Tim (Chicago)

Will the cubs be able to draft a ace and would they consider drafting a position player. Thanks

Klaw

I don't think there's any bat worthy of the 4th overall pick this year. It's all arms up top.

 

Daniel (SF)

Bradley Zimmer: middle-of-the-order potential?

Klaw

Seems like it. Has the size and athleticism, pretty good approach, not sure he stays in CF with that kind of body though.

 

Grant (Chattanooga)

Do your recent viewings of Rodon change his ceiling, or just lower the floor?

Klaw

That's a damn good question. I'm not really sure if it's both or not. I feel less confident about him becoming an ace, certainly.

 

Ian (OK)

If you're the Twins, do you want the 5th best pitcher in this draft of the best position player when you pick at #5?

Klaw

What if the 5th best pitcher is still better than the best position player? However, I had one exec point out that if we look back on this draft in ten years, the odds that the five best players will all turn out to have been pitchers are incredibly slim. So maybe the bat is there and we just haven't identified him yet?

 

Ian (OK)

Who is the better HS prep arm - Kohl Stewart or Kolek?

Klaw

Kolek has size and velocity. Stewart had athleticism and a better slider. I'd lean Kolek but it's not a huge gap.

[Guest]

@CrawfordChrisV: Third straight outing that Beede's command has been poor. Not a great sign for a guy that walked 68 guys in 100 innings last year.

[Guest]

Rodon is pulling a Dan Marino and he's going to fall to the Cubs and become the next Steve Carlton. Same home town and all.

[Guest]

Hoffman is having a great outing. He's matching up against Rice's Zech Lemond (who has a ton of helium and might sneak into the first round). 0-0 after 5.

[davell]

Hoffman is having a great outing. He's matching up against Rice's Zech Lemond (who has a ton of helium and might sneak into the first round). 0-0 after 5.

 

Hoffman evidently motioned Rice to leave the field after the 6th.

[A New Era]

I like Kolek, Aiken, and Rodon. I think whichever of them slip to us we should take without hesitation. I'm glad Kolek is getting lots of love. I'm not bragging here but ever since I saw that little preview clip of him on mlb.com I thought he looked damn good. I know it's just a couple snippets but I love that super tight movement of his pitches. He just looks like he's gonna be awesome already.

[Guest]

Kiley McDaniel and Frank Pilierie did a two part podcast on the draft.

 

Part 1 revolved around Rodon, Turner and Hoffman: http://sbb.scout.com/2/1389571.html

 

Didn't realize Rodon had admitted he was hurt last year. Can't help but walk away from that podcast thinking Rodon is damaged goods.

 

Part 2 was about a whole lot of other prospects, including Jackson, Gordon, Gatewood, Holmes, Touissant, Zimmer, etc: http://sbb.scout.com/2/1390020.html

 

Most striking comment, going into February, Rodon, Hoffman, Kolek and Turner all were in a clearly defined top 4 and possibly better than last year's big 3. Now, none of them would be drafted ahead of the big three (and the top of the class now has dropped Turner and added Aiken and Beede).