2013-14 International Free Agency Thread

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Yep, never mind, you just forfeit the next-highest pick.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/pa/pdf/cba_english.pdf

[Guest]

Yeah, there's no way the player's union would have been cool with that.

[davell]

Tseng is being courted by the Twins, according to Sanchez. Saw yesterday the Pads were closing in on Perez. If we actually are after some of the big names left, its flying under the radar.

[Guest]

it's just hard for me to ignore 22 walks and 15 strikeouts as a 20 year old in aa

[Guest]

it's just hard for me to ignore 22 walks and 15 strikeouts as a 20 year old in aa

 

He has one tool, and that tool has been below average for well over 800 PA now. This is what happened to Theriot. Put up a great K/BB and a BABIP driven OPS that's decent for your position(Theriot actually had a much better BB rate, 11% in 2008). Then pitchers realize that that you can't punish mistakes, so you start getting nothing but strikes, the BABIP dips, and the offensive value plummets. In Torreyes' case it's more like "pitchers at higher levels are good enough to pump strikes" rather than just figuring out that you have great contact ability but no power, but the end result is the same.

[ctcf]

it's just hard for me to ignore 22 walks and 15 strikeouts as a 20 year old in aa

 

He has one tool, and that tool has been below average for well over 800 PA now. This is what happened to Theriot. Put up a great K/BB and a BABIP driven OPS that's decent for your position(Theriot actually had a much better BB rate, 11% in 2008). Then pitchers realize that that you can't punish mistakes, so you start getting nothing but strikes, the BABIP dips, and the offensive value plummets. In Torreyes' case it's more like "pitchers at higher levels are good enough to pump strikes" rather than just figuring out that you have great contact ability but no power, but the end result is the same.

 

This. That K/BB ratio isn't worth crap if there isn't anything else worthwhile going on.

[Guest]

Tseng is being courted by the Twins, according to Sanchez. Saw yesterday the Pads were closing in on Perez. If we actually are after some of the big names left, its flying under the radar.

 

Mayky Perez signed with the Padres this morning for $635,000.

[Guest]

@BenBadler: The Cubs held a big press conference in Venezuela for signing No. 2 prospect Gleyber Torres http://twitter.com/BenBadler/status/353161984285483008/photo/1

 

Cachorros de Chicago!

[Sammy Sofa]

it's just hard for me to ignore 22 walks and 15 strikeouts as a 20 year old in aa

 

He has one tool, and that tool has been below average for well over 800 PA now. This is what happened to Theriot. Put up a great K/BB and a BABIP driven OPS that's decent for your position(Theriot actually had a much better BB rate, 11% in 2008). Then pitchers realize that that you can't punish mistakes, so you start getting nothing but strikes, the BABIP dips, and the offensive value plummets. In Torreyes' case it's more like "pitchers at higher levels are good enough to pump strikes" rather than just figuring out that you have great contact ability but no power, but the end result is the same.

 

Nice post.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Theriot was a useful player right up to the age of 30 and showed a perfectly normal aging curve. I'm not seeing much evidence that pitchers just "figured him out."

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Theriot was a useful player right up to the age of 30 and showed a perfectly normal aging curve. I'm not seeing much evidence that pitchers just "figured him out."

 

If he turns out to be a "useful player" like Theriot, nobody is going to care. We can sign that type of player almost every year in free agency for a million bucks. Well, unless it's Ryan Sweeney. He's that exception to the rule thing.

[Guest]

yeah, nobody is saying torreyes has a high ceiling, but he has a very good chance to be useful. anyways, theriot was like 4 years older than torreyes for each level so i don't really see the point in the comparison. much of the intrigue with torreyes is tied directly to his age and level.

 

also, are we sure that "hit tool" explicitly means batting average? when i think hit tool i think about the raw ability to make contact with the ball on a consistent basis. in that regard, his hit tool has been spectacular. i think a good batting average is what you hope the hit tool results in.

[Guest]

The comparison was more for illustration than providing a statistical comp, and I was referring to Theriot at the MLB level.

 

I think we actually had that question about the hit tool's definition a little while back. When I think of it I think of the ability to hit for average, but that's fine if there's a semantical difference. The point is that Torreyes isn't going to hit for power, provide speed value, defensive value, or positional value, so he needs to hit for average. We're now to the point where more than half of Torreyes' professional PAs, the most recent half+, the half+ at the highest levels, are just not cutting it in that department, even when adjusting for age. When your one MLB-caliber skill is not showing in game action above Low A, or since 2011, it's hard for me to think of him as much of a prospect. He needs a pretty significant change of course to ever wear an MLB uniform for more than a couple weeks.

[BeerHere]

The comparison was more for illustration than providing a statistical comp, and I was referring to Theriot at the MLB level.

 

I think we actually had that question about the hit tool's definition a little while back. When I think of it I think of the ability to hit for average, but that's fine if there's a semantical difference. The point is that Torreyes isn't going to hit for power, provide speed value, defensive value, or positional value, so he needs to hit for average. We're now to the point where more than half of Torreyes' professional PAs, the most recent half+, the half+ at the highest levels, are just not cutting it in that department, even when adjusting for age. When your one MLB-caliber skill is not showing in game action above Low A, or since 2011, it's hard for me to think of him as much of a prospect. He needs a pretty significant change of course to ever wear an MLB uniform for more than a couple weeks.

100% agree. I don't question the trade for more space at all. Losing Torreyes isn't that big of a deal.

[scarey]

There's also the fact that we're getting into a roster crunch in terms of middle infielders right now. It is awesome to have so many middle infield prospects, but they have to play somewhere. Right now, Lake, Watkins, Alcantara, Baez, and Bruno are all guys that could take reps at the same level and position as Torreyes potentially could. I'm not saying that Torreyes is not more as valuable as all of those guys. Recent signings and draftees are forcing guys up into the higher levels and if you can get good value for a guy like Torreyes (which they did), you have a little bit more incentive to pull the trigger on such a trade.

[Guest]

It's odd, but I feel better about the deal if we're going to go nuts and we basically sold him for $800K than I do if we just got $800K of cap space to get a couple extra 16 year olds.

 

Which is probably irrational. If the Cubs could buy $800K more cap space for that amount of money, they'd do it in a heartbeat.

[imb]

it's just hard for me to ignore 22 walks and 15 strikeouts as a 20 year old in aa

 

It will be easier to ignore in 10 years when he's got a similar k/bb rate as a 30-year-old in aaa

[ctcf]

it's just hard for me to ignore 22 walks and 15 strikeouts as a 20 year old in aa

 

It will be easier to ignore in 10 years when he's got a similar k/bb rate as a 30-year-old in aaa

 

At which point SCS will be the only person thinking he has value.

[Guest]

Last night I got in my car and WGN radio was still on from listening to the game earlier (posting that disclaimer so that nobody thinks I would listen to Kaplan's show on purpose) and Phil Rogers was on and elaborated a bit on what he had reported.

 

He said the Cubs look to blow past restrictions this year because they love the depth of this crop positionally and don't like it that much for pitching. Said that they consider next year's crop to be weak on the positional side but fairly deep pitching-wise, and they'll take the volume approach to pitching next year with the 250k slots (much like their philosophy on drafting).

[Guest]

Kiley McDaniel[/url]"]Two clubs worth keeping an eye on in terms of bonus pools are the Chicago Cubs and Texas Rangers. The Cubs are rumored to be near a $2.8 million deal with Dominican RF Eloy Jimenez and only have $2.17 million in remaining bonus money. They could still add a little over $1 million in bonus money via trades, but may not have another club willing to give up their pool money and the Cubs can't obtain more pool money once they go over the limit. The Cubs have hinted that they aren't afraid of the tax on the overage or possible limitations on bonuses they can hand out next year if they go far over the limit. That said, the holdup on Jimenez's deal sure seems to be the Cubs trying to buy time to find more pool money to only have a tax to pay for the overage rather than incurring international bonus limitations next season.

 

Ideally, the Cubs should be looking to get to beat the bonus pool by less than 5% to only have to pay the tax. Anything 0% to 5% over the bonus pool results in a 75% tax on the overage, 5% to 10% results in the same tax and a $500,000 cap on the top bonus to give out next year with two more notches at 10% to 15% (100% tax, $500,000 max bonus) and over 15% (100% tax, $250,000 bonus). These penalties would be slightly tweaked if we have an international draft next year, with the same tax system and no pick penalty at 5% or under, but the next three notches, respectively would cost a club their first round pick, first and second round pick, and next two first round picks.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

It just keeps looking to me like the Cubs misread the market for acquiring IFA money.

[TruffleShuffle]

well hey, if they can't get under the cap, then just go crazy and sign everybody and take next year off.

[Halfrican88]

Not sure if this has been addressed, does anyone know where Torres or Jimenez would have gone in the draft this year?

[Guest]

well hey, if they can't get under the cap, then just go crazy and sign everybody and take next year off.

 

They can still go the quantity approach next year anyway. Best of both worlds.

[CubsWin]

It just keeps looking to me like the Cubs misread the market for acquiring IFA money.

Most definitely that's what happened. They got over-committed and are now looking at the options. The blowing through the limits story is either a smoke screen to gain leverage in trade talks to land more cap space or a legit story about what options they are considering after having misjudged the market. Theo & Co. are smart and have a plan, but they are far from infallible. All these after-the-fact, trying to explain the Cubs moves posts suggesting some sort of Machiavellian maneuvers that are well above the heads of other GMs around the league are way off.