Yes Ladies and Gentlemen

[Little Slide Rooter]

No. 1 picks never bust in the NFL?

.

 

JaMarcus Russell likes you.

[davell]

No. 1 picks never bust in the NFL?

 

No. 1 picks in MLB are really, really good bets.

 

 

The reason I want the top pick, or a very high one, at the very least, is so we have extra money to throw at the draft. Instead of getting ONE bigtime player, you could get 3, if you do what Houston did this year. Adding a top 5 guy and 2 more 1st round talents to your system increases your chances dramatically of getting something right in a business where your job is to be less wrong than the next guy.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

No. 1 picks never bust in the NFL?

 

No. 1 picks in MLB are really, really good bets.

 

 

The reason I want the top pick, or a very high one, at the very least, is so we have extra money to throw at the draft. Instead of getting ONE bigtime player, you could get 3, if you do what Houston did this year. Adding a top 5 guy and 2 more 1st round talents to your system increases your chances dramatically of getting something right in a business where your job is to be less wrong than the next guy.

 

The reason I want the top pick is because in the next year, there's a good chance someone establishes himself as the best amateur prospect available and we get to take him. About half of No. 1 overall picks turn into super-awesome studs, and almost all become MLB contributors if they aren't sore-armed pitchers.

 

The chance to do the MLB equivalent of "trading down" and doing what Houston did is merely a consolation prize if nobody establishes themselves between now and then.

[neely crenshaw]

yes top picks in all leagues bomb at times.

the point is unlike in the nba or nfl, where say you are selecting andrew luck to start for you next year and hopefully give you immediate help, except for once in a great while, help would not be here for several years. which is why getting the #1 overall pick is far less important.

we need to restock but we don't need the top overall pick to do that, we just need to draft well.

[KaiserCesar]

yes top picks in all leagues bomb at times.

the point is unlike in the nba or nfl, where say you are selecting andrew luck to start for you next year and hopefully give you immediate help, except for once in a great while, help would not be here for several years. which is why getting the #1 overall pick is far less important.

we need to restock but we don't need the top overall pick to do that, we just need to draft well.

 

I think football is different in that the window of opportunity for a winning team is only a few years, while a good baseball team can have sustained success for over half a decade. Even if your top pick is 1-2 years away, if you have an established foundation, chances are that the majority of good players will still be cheap and have plenty of prime years ahead of them.

 

For the Cubs, Rizzo and Jackson will at least be cheap if and when next year's top pick makes it to the big leagues. Some of the guys in the low minors now will likely only have a little bit of service time or will be waiting to come up together. I think next year's pick is more than relevant in the medium-term rebuilding plans.

[CyHawk_Cub]

A healthy pipeline of prospects can also buy a team impact major league players when circumstances warrant. It's not always about waiting years on development of players, though some seem to assume the Cubs have somehow turned into the Rays or Royals based on one off-season.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

A healthy pipeline of prospects can also buy a team impact major league players when circumstances warrant. It's not always about waiting years on development of players, though some seem to assume the Cubs have somehow turned into the Rays or Royals based on one off-season.

 

No one's assuming anything, but the quotes from Epstein today are definitely at least vaguely pointing in that direction. I don't see Adrian Gonzalez on his dream Red Sox lineup.

[Guest]

A healthy pipeline of prospects can also buy a team impact major league players when circumstances warrant. It's not always about waiting years on development of players, though some seem to assume the Cubs have somehow turned into the Rays or Royals based on one off-season.

 

The optimist in me can't help but think of this as an explanation for some of the behavior we've seen from the front office. It's clear that they feel a little burned by free agency, and they aren't wrong that in many cases it's an inefficient and many times expensive and unproductive solution. So that leaves them with the trade market to improve the team, but with the state of the system last year they were only able to sell off a couple MLB assets for some potentially undervalued commodities. Now that they've done some work to reload the system, I wonder if they are more aggressive on the trade market this offseason. That's been a hallmark of Theo's Red Sox as much as anything, adding Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Victor Martinez, Curt Schilling, Jason Bay, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Coco Crisp, and Mike Lowell through that avenue. I still think they have another year or so before the farm system is truly their own and near where they want it, but I can't help but think that part of the utility of the influx of prospects will be to trade some away.

[rawaction]

A healthy pipeline of prospects can also buy a team impact major league players when circumstances warrant. It's not always about waiting years on development of players, though some seem to assume the Cubs have somehow turned into the Rays or Royals based on one off-season.

 

The optimist in me can't help but think of this as an explanation for some of the behavior we've seen from the front office. It's clear that they feel a little burned by free agency, and they aren't wrong that in many cases it's an inefficient and many times expensive and unproductive solution. So that leaves them with the trade market to improve the team, but with the state of the system last year they were only able to sell off a couple MLB assets for some potentially undervalued commodities. Now that they've done some work to reload the system, I wonder if they are more aggressive on the trade market this offseason. That's been a hallmark of Theo's Red Sox as much as anything, adding Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Victor Martinez, Curt Schilling, Jason Bay, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Coco Crisp, and Mike Lowell through that avenue. I still think they have another year or so before the farm system is truly their own and near where they want it, but I can't help but think that part of the utility of the influx of prospects will be to trade some away.

 

I've figured this was the plan all along. The Cubs have and will have the entire 2012 season to evaluate not only the major league talent, but the talent in the minors also. I actually think some of us may even be unhappy with some of the trades that the Cubs make over the next few offseasons. I think anyone not personally added by Theo and company is fair game to be gone. Players like Brett Jackson, Junior Lake, Vitters, etc. are guys that a lot of us like, but what we don't know is how much that the front office likes those players. If they think Jackson won't make enough contact to be successful or Lake/Vitters won't walk or field enough to be successful, I don't think they would hesitate to trade one or all of those prospects to someone who feels differently about them (I think this is where some of the Castro trade talk comes from also). I think this is what happened in the Rizzo trade. Someone in San Diego wasn't as big a fan of Rizzo as some other people and he was gone for a pitcher that the Padres probably liked more than Theo/Hoyer.

 

So, I'm very interested in seeing where this organization goes from now until March 2013. I think the trade market is where this organization will greatly improve the team and heavily facelift the minor league level. Not saying they won't sign anyone, but I would be willing to bet there will be no crazy 6+ year, $100Mil + contracts handed out any time soon.