Minor League Discussion & Boxes 5-27-12

[craig]

http://www.thecubreporter.com/2012/05/26/bogaerts-knows-how-whistle-blows-out-three-run-blast-fitch-park

 

Re: Bogaerts Knows How to Whistle, Blows Out Three-Run Blast ...

Having seen Starlin Castro play SS, 2B, and 3B extensively at EXST, AZL CUBS, and AZ Instructs in 2008, absolutely no doubt his best position is 2B (he is actually an above-average defensive 2B). and if you ask them, you will find that the Cubs minor league infield instructors who have worked one-on-one with Castro will agree.

 

That said, Castro CAN play SS (it's just that he's better at 2B), and there is no reason to move him at this time unless the Cubs want to switch Castro and Barney, but then Barney is the Cubs #1 SS until whenever Baez arrives.

 

As for Javier Baez, reports that he would have to be moved to 3B just don't jibe with his play at SS at EXST. He does make too many careless errors because he plays too fast and tries to do too much, but he has the range and arm to play SS, and he also has the leadership & field command presence preferred in a SS (like a point guard in basketball). Baez is Derrick Rose. Castro is Carmelo Anthony.

 

Pre-draft reports that Baez would have to move to 3B in pro ball are puzzling, because if they were both on the same team right now, Baez would push Castro to another position (not the other-way around).

 

The player that Baez reminds me of (at a similar age) would be Alex Rodriguez, but without A-Rod's patience at the plate. Baez hates to take a walk, and he needs to work on learning to let pitches that are out of the strike-zone go by.

 

Baez is high-strung and sometimes even combative, and he is hyper-aggressive at the plate, on the bases, and in the field, but his bat-speed and HR power are very rare, and he has the speed to steal 20-30 bases.

 

Nobody worked harder in EXST pre-game (early morning) BP, infield, and base-running drills than Javier Baez. He pushes himself very hard and expects others around him to do the same.

 

Baez also does not suffer fools or bad baseball easily, and he is the kind of player who will not accept losing.

 

What really impressed me with Baez was how he handled his 0-20 slump (with ten K) after beginning the Cactus League EXST season hitting for the cycle versus the Angels and going 9-15 with three doubles, with triples, and three HR in his first 15 PA.

 

His 0-20 (10-K) slump was caused by him trying to pull everything and pulling off the ball, and so other teams suckered him and made him look foolish with a steady diet of breaking balls. But then he made an adjustment and began to intentionally hit every pitch back through the box (sometimes nearly taking the pitcher's head-off in the process), cutting his power numbers down for a while. But it got him back on track, and he hit two gargantuan 420-ft+ home runs over the right-centerfield fence and onto Field #5 (the half-field infield) located north of the clubhouse at Fitch Park last week (with Oneri Fleita watching).

[davell]

I disagree completely about Correa. Just about everything I read heading into this season said expect him to make a move towards the top. And now he has. The power is coming already and he's very athletic for his size, with solid makeup. If you dream on him and Almora, Correa has the higher ceiling easily and while Almora may have the higher floor, I doubt it's by much. In both cases, I think we're seeing two guys step up, not just moving up because no one else is there. It's not going to surprise me at all if either or both wind up better than Buxton. Nor will it surprise me if Correa even gets drafted ahead of Buxton.

[toonsterwu]

It's going to be a really great problem if Correa falls.

 

I'm sort of leaning towards the Almora boat these days between the two. I don't mind Correa, and I tend to think that they'll likely take an arm if there's one that they like, but with Baez deserving time at short, Alcantara still hitting (but the power has dipped) in A+, Marco likely headed to Boise, and Carlos Penalver somewhere, the SS depth in the system is as good, if not better, than when Castro/Lee/Lake were working their way up. By the time Almora would be ready (and this is hoping he develops positively), Matt Szczur would be in his late 20's, along with Brett Jackson.

 

That sounds good, but that's not a real draft strategy when you're nowhere close to an elite team.

 

That said, Correa becoming a top 4 guy as the draft process went on (and the draft got more exposed as mediocre at best) rather than starting off as one does have me a little leery.

 

Sure, if Correa has a significantly higher grade than Almora, then no question about it ... he should be the pick if the Cubs choose between the two. If it's close, though, I'd rather go after a position with slightly more questions in the lower levels (granted, there's some promising CF ... raw talent ... in the lower levels as well).

[Guest]

It's going to be a really great problem if Correa falls.

 

I'm sort of leaning towards the Almora boat these days between the two. I don't mind Correa, and I tend to think that they'll likely take an arm if there's one that they like, but with Baez deserving time at short, Alcantara still hitting (but the power has dipped) in A+, Marco likely headed to Boise, and Carlos Penalver somewhere, the SS depth in the system is as good, if not better, than when Castro/Lee/Lake were working their way up. By the time Almora would be ready (and this is hoping he develops positively), Matt Szczur would be in his late 20's, along with Brett Jackson.

 

Correa is clearly a better prospect than Almora, you have to go BPA.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

I disagree completely about Correa. Just about everything I read heading into this season said expect him to make a move towards the top. And now he has. The power is coming already and he's very athletic for his size, with solid makeup. If you dream on him and Almora, Correa has the higher ceiling easily and while Almora may have the higher floor, I doubt it's by much. In both cases, I think we're seeing two guys step up, not just moving up because no one else is there. It's not going to surprise me at all if either or both wind up better than Buxton. Nor will it surprise me if Correa even gets drafted ahead of Buxton.

 

Yeah but guys like Manny Machado and other elite HS prospects didn't have an "expect him to make a move" thing going for them. That's literally my own knock on Correa during this draft process.

[Guest]

I disagree completely about Correa. Just about everything I read heading into this season said expect him to make a move towards the top. And now he has. The power is coming already and he's very athletic for his size, with solid makeup. If you dream on him and Almora, Correa has the higher ceiling easily and while Almora may have the higher floor, I doubt it's by much. In both cases, I think we're seeing two guys step up, not just moving up because no one else is there. It's not going to surprise me at all if either or both wind up better than Buxton. Nor will it surprise me if Correa even gets drafted ahead of Buxton.

 

Yeah but guys like Manny Machado and other elite HS prospects didn't have an "expect him to make a move" thing going for them. That's literally my own knock on Correa during this draft process.

 

There's no guarantee Machado sticks at SS.

[toonsterwu]

toonster and others, what do you know about Hernandez's deal versus LHP. He was switch when signed and that's what he did in DR; that was going badly so they decided to go straight lefty; then this year he got off to such a horrible start that he decided to go back to switch-hitting again? Or what? Or was he all-lefty last year, then he started all lefty again this April and was getting buried; and then at some point decided to pick up switch-hitting again?

 

Also, toonster, did you read AzPhil's gusharoo on Baez yesterday? I'll post it in the next post. He basically says that he totally doesn't understand he Baez-to-3B anticipation, that he's got all the range and arm and tools for SS, that his errors are careless/plays-too-fast. He opines that having seen Castro a lot in Mesa, and Baez, that while Castro can play SS, he's better and would be better at 2B, and basically thinks that Baez is better suited for SS and Castro for 2B than vice-versa. Or than using either one at 3B. He's pretty gushy-to-the-max on Baez, both as a hitter, as a potential fielder, and as a work-hard-personality. Of course, we know that Phil is no scout, so his opinion may be baloney. It may also be that he talks to some Cubs scouts, and gets influenced by what they think, so that there is natural consensus that Cubs scouts think Baez is plenty-well tooled for SS and Phil seems to think so also.

 

craig, I don't have an answer for you right now on the first part. Only thing I can say is that I think he's got more ability as a left-handed hitter, from what I've seen.

 

And yes, I read the AzPhil stuff on Baez. I tend to think that AzPhil has talked to some Cubs folks before (based on some of his commentary in the past), although I don't know if he's ever explicitly said so). Like I said in the pm, I've come around on the idea that Baez has the raw tools to stay at short. I think we do have to wait and see how Baez develops physically and mentally, but there's no doubt he has the potential. And I don't think the Xander Boegaerts comp I made once is fair (although Boston fans are still gushing over Boegaerts potential to stay at short ... I saw Xander this year, and he's a big, big dude, I'm going to be surprised if Xander stays at short).

[davell]

I disagree completely about Correa. Just about everything I read heading into this season said expect him to make a move towards the top. And now he has. The power is coming already and he's very athletic for his size, with solid makeup. If you dream on him and Almora, Correa has the higher ceiling easily and while Almora may have the higher floor, I doubt it's by much. In both cases, I think we're seeing two guys step up, not just moving up because no one else is there. It's not going to surprise me at all if either or both wind up better than Buxton. Nor will it surprise me if Correa even gets drafted ahead of Buxton.

 

Yeah but guys like Manny Machado and other elite HS prospects didn't have an "expect him to make a move" thing going for them. That's literally my own knock on Correa during this draft process.

Don't construe this as a knock on Almora, because we've already talked age, on both these guys. But I think in Correa and maybe in Almora's case too, their being so young, has led to more development this season than most others.

[toonsterwu]

All in all, if there is a pitcher with a close grade, or better, I get the feeling we may go that route. But sitting at where we pick, we're at the mercy of those ahead.

[toonsterwu]

It's going to be a really great problem if Correa falls.

 

I'm sort of leaning towards the Almora boat these days between the two. I don't mind Correa, and I tend to think that they'll likely take an arm if there's one that they like, but with Baez deserving time at short, Alcantara still hitting (but the power has dipped) in A+, Marco likely headed to Boise, and Carlos Penalver somewhere, the SS depth in the system is as good, if not better, than when Castro/Lee/Lake were working their way up. By the time Almora would be ready (and this is hoping he develops positively), Matt Szczur would be in his late 20's, along with Brett Jackson.

 

Correa is clearly a better prospect than Almora, you have to go BPA.

 

If he has moved that far ahead (and I have been too busy to follow) then sure, correa sounds great. Still cannot believe that appel could go 1-1.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

I disagree completely about Correa. Just about everything I read heading into this season said expect him to make a move towards the top. And now he has. The power is coming already and he's very athletic for his size, with solid makeup. If you dream on him and Almora, Correa has the higher ceiling easily and while Almora may have the higher floor, I doubt it's by much. In both cases, I think we're seeing two guys step up, not just moving up because no one else is there. It's not going to surprise me at all if either or both wind up better than Buxton. Nor will it surprise me if Correa even gets drafted ahead of Buxton.

 

Yeah but guys like Manny Machado and other elite HS prospects didn't have an "expect him to make a move" thing going for them. That's literally my own knock on Correa during this draft process.

Don't construe this as a knock on Almora, because we've already talked age, on both these guys. But I think in Correa and maybe in Almora's case too, their being so young, has led to more development this season than most others.

 

Compared to? Machado was 17 when drafted...same for ARod...Justin Upton was 17...the difference between them and Correa is 2 months or so IIRC (that Correa is a September birthday).

 

Maybe Correa being from Puerto Rico was less scouted than those guys? That would be closer to the boost you're looking for.

[craig]

...

craig, I don't have an answer for you right now on the first part. Only thing I can say is that I think he's got more ability as a left-handed hitter, from what I've seen.

....

 

We understand that he's better lefty versus RHP. But pro teams use LHP, especially in the majors. So if he's ever going to have any shot at more than a platoon boy, he's going to need to come up with some anti-awful approach versus LHP. Small sample, but hitting left handed his OPS this year is .182. That's OPS, not OBP. And it was in the .500's last year versus rookie-league level pitching. His splits last year were like 400 points better versus RHP than LHP.

 

I assume that if he settles for RH versus lefties, that he's not going to have the quality or the authority that he has LH versus righties. But it appears that hitting lefty, he simply has no chance whatsoever versus LHP. It's one thing to have a switch-hitter who's good his good way and hit's like Paul Bako against lefties. It's another to have a guy who's like Garza or Frank Castillo against lefties.

[davell]

Nah, I wasn't comparing Correa with those guys, just trying to show a potential reason he's been a huge mover in this class.

[craig]

Yeah but guys like Manny Machado and other elite HS prospects didn't have an "expect him to make a move" thing going for them. That's literally my own knock on Correa during this draft process.

 

Prior, what's Correa expected to move to? 3B/RF?

[craig]

Correa is clearly a better prospect than Almora, you have to go BPA.

 

Interesting. I didn't realize Correa was clearly better/BPA. I'd gotten the impression the Cubs perhaps thought otherwise. I admit from just watching a couple of little Youtubes, I hadn't gotten that impression myself; my first impression was that Correa might be completely helpless against anything down and especially any breaking stuff down. Hopefully that's wrong, and of course I'm no scout and 8 youtube pitches don't do much. So hopefully Correa is a great prospect star, and Almoro too. Would be nice to have a great-great choice, or a great-good choice.

[davell]

Correa is the big helium guy this year. At this point, I think there's extremely little chance of him making it to us.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Yeah but guys like Manny Machado and other elite HS prospects didn't have an "expect him to make a move" thing going for them. That's literally my own knock on Correa during this draft process.

 

Prior, what's Correa expected to move to? 3B/RF?

 

If he moves at all it's 3B, where he could develop into a Ryan Zimmerman-esque player.

 

Just to toss it out there again...Always hoped that Baez's next position after SS is 2B.

[javy knows my name]

Yeah but guys like Manny Machado and other elite HS prospects didn't have an "expect him to make a move" thing going for them. That's literally my own knock on Correa during this draft process.

 

Prior, what's Correa expected to move to? 3B/RF?

 

If he moves at all it's 3B, where he could develop into a Ryan Zimmerman-esque player.

 

Just to toss it out there again...Always hoped that Baez's next position after SS is 2B.

 

From what I've heard, his arm is too good to put him at 2B. I've heard it's going to be a big part of his defensive value.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Yeah but guys like Manny Machado and other elite HS prospects didn't have an "expect him to make a move" thing going for them. That's literally my own knock on Correa during this draft process.

 

Prior, what's Correa expected to move to? 3B/RF?

 

If he moves at all it's 3B, where he could develop into a Ryan Zimmerman-esque player.

 

Just to toss it out there again...Always hoped that Baez's next position after SS is 2B.

 

From what I've heard, his arm is too good to put him at 2B. I've heard it's going to be a big part of his defensive value.

 

Cano is known for having a very strong arm himself. Strong arm is valuable anywhere and invaluable in turning the double play.

 

In my head I've worked it out to where Castro is Jeter and Baez is Cano, even down to being the uber talented but hotheaded type. I've compared Cano to two players based on his scouting report on draft day, Ramirez and Cano. Ramirez if he cares just enough about D to get by, and Cano if he wants to be one of the best players in the game year in and year out.

[Guest]

Correa is the big helium guy this year. At this point, I think there's extremely little chance of him making it to us.

 

Yeah - doesn't seem like he gets past Seattle at this point. He's my favorite position player prospect.