Re: Longest losing streaks in franchise history

[Fred Hornkohl]

 

Well, the Cubs have the longest streak of avoiding no-hitters, so it's really a statistical anomaly more than anything. Also, I'm using post-2007 numbers to try to reflect the run environment a little bit. Between 2002 and 2006, only 5 no-hitters happend in comparison to the 16 between 2007 and 2012.

 

Just show me the calculation where the probability is "easily greater than 10%".

 

Well, the average no-hit avoidance streak is currently 10.86 years, so I don't think it's too far out of line using the rationale you used. Here's the data I used on that one.

 

 

The original 10% was a very quick and dirty calculation I did on the fly assuming there being 3+ no-hitters per year and a 1 out of 30 chance of it being one specific team each time. I skewed it upward due to the offensive woes of the Cubs, even though the runs scored of teams that have been no-hit suggests that that doesn't really matter too much.

 

Using your "post 2007" time frame, the CUBS have played 693 games and made 6,167 hits, or 8.90 hits/game. They have not been no-hit during that period, 1 hit once, 2 hit seven times.......

 

H/G   Instances
 0    0
 1    1
 2    7
 3   12
 4   30
 5   51
 6   68
 7   84
 8   77
 9   92
10   78
11   54
12   28
13   38
14   37
15   13
16    9
17    6
18    6
19    1
20    0
21    1
22    0
23    0
24    0
25    0

 

I didn't take the time to calculate the standard deviation for these 693 games, but I'd still like to see you try to get "easily greater than 10%" out of these numbers, eh?

[KaiserCesar]

 

Well, the Cubs have the longest streak of avoiding no-hitters, so it's really a statistical anomaly more than anything. Also, I'm using post-2007 numbers to try to reflect the run environment a little bit. Between 2002 and 2006, only 5 no-hitters happend in comparison to the 16 between 2007 and 2012.

 

Just show me the calculation where the probability is "easily greater than 10%".

 

Well, the average no-hit avoidance streak is currently 10.86 years, so I don't think it's too far out of line using the rationale you used. Here's the data I used on that one.

 

 

The original 10% was a very quick and dirty calculation I did on the fly assuming there being 3+ no-hitters per year and a 1 out of 30 chance of it being one specific team each time. I skewed it upward due to the offensive woes of the Cubs, even though the runs scored of teams that have been no-hit suggests that that doesn't really matter too much.

 

Using your "post 2007" time frame, the CUBS have played 693 games and made 6,167 hits, or 8.90 hits/game. They have not been no-hit during that period, 1 hit once, 2 hit seven times.......

 

H/G   Instances
 0    0
 1    1
 2    7
 3   12
 4   30
 5   51
 6   68
 7   84
 8   77
 9   92
10   78
11   54
12   28
13   38
14   37
15   13
16    9
17    6
18    6
19    1
20    0
21    1
22    0
23    0
24    0
25    0

 

I didn't take the time to calculate the standard deviation for these 693 games, but I'd still like to see you try to get "easily greater than 10%" out of these numbers, eh?

 

I'd like to think using the numbers relating to the overall occurrences of no-hitters would be a better approach, since we'd have to infer the nature of the distribution of hits per game and some more sophisticated math (oh no!).