Random Baseball Musings

[Wilson A2000]

That things in baseball aren't 100% right or wrong - or always quantifiable

 

With respect to every decision made, there are good ones and bad ones (and relatively inconsequential ones). Numbers and probabilities are our best bet at figuring out which ones are which. What the hell else is there?

 

Managerial instinct, the traditionalists say. "I saw so-and-so hit well in the cage today despite his recent struggles and I will pinch-hit him in the 8th."

 

I don't buy that there is a psychology and sociology to the game, things we haven't figured out yet that influence how players think, but I think it's possible and one day it could be quantifiable.

[DiamondMind]

I 100% believe there is a psychology and sociology to the game. I also believe this in other sports on some level, but I feel like it strongly affects baseball.

[Guest]

You're dealing with people, so naturally there's a psychology to playing and managing in baseball. The problem from a decision making standpoint is when people base their decisions more on intuition rather than what decision puts the team in the best decision to win on average. It's like hitting when you should stand in blackjack, it might pay off but in the long run you're likely to come out a loser for making that decision with any regularity.

 

That said, there are some situations where managers get too much grief. Late inning bunts in close games are one of those, but the bigger to me is bullpen management. If you ask fans from every single team, none of them will be happy with the bullpen management on average, and any that are happy probably have an incredible bullpen. It ends up being a convenient and visceral scapegoat in many cases, because with relievers you're balancing rest/rust/injury (which we have only the tiniest inkling about), and also employing more judgement when it comes to what guys are going to have the best/right stuff for the situation. Since nearly every reliever's evaluative period is a small sample size, that type of juggling is more justifiable.

[Clem Fandango]

Bill Plaschke of the Los Angeles Times reports that Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti "could soon lose his job" and the club's "top target" to replace him appears to be Rays GM Andrew Friedman.

Manager Don Mattingly's job is reportedly safe following the team's disappointing playoff exit, but momentum for the firing of Colletti appears to be building. Plaschke writes that Dodgers ownership was "disappointed with how Colletti constructed a roster that, despite costing a record $240 million, lacked the pieces to compete with the versatile Cardinals." The club is expected to drop its payroll to the $185-190-million range next season and it appears they want a different GM in charge of the retooling. Friedman is universally considered one of the best GMs in the game and would be a huge addition for the Dodgers. They can certainly afford to give him a massive raise, but it's worth noting that Friedman turned down the Angels' GM job that eventually went to Jerry Dipoto.

[Proven Veteran]

Bill Plaschke of the Los Angeles Times reports that Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti "could soon lose his job" and the club's "top target" to replace him appears to be Rays GM Andrew Friedman.

Manager Don Mattingly's job is reportedly safe following the team's disappointing playoff exit, but momentum for the firing of Colletti appears to be building. Plaschke writes that Dodgers ownership was "disappointed with how Colletti constructed a roster that, despite costing a record $240 million, lacked the pieces to compete with the versatile Cardinals." The club is expected to drop its payroll to the $185-190-million range next season and it appears they want a different GM in charge of the retooling. Friedman is universally considered one of the best GMs in the game and would be a huge addition for the Dodgers. They can certainly afford to give him a massive raise, but it's worth noting that Friedman turned down the Angels' GM job that eventually went to Jerry Dipoto.

Uh-oh.

[Guest]

I like bunting and stolen bases sometimes, that's all. Don't kill me. :beg:

 

The mistake you're making is that thinking that these things somehow are inherently opposed by numbers and probabilities and that doing them is always in conflict with them. And if it actually were the case, which it's not, then it would always be wrong to do them.

[jersey cubs fan]

I 100% believe there is a psychology and sociology to the game. I also believe this in other sports on some level, but I feel like it strongly affects baseball.

The crazy thing is you think it matters more in baseball. It is much more important in an effort and moving parts sport like football and hockey than in an incredibly quantifiable slow game like baseball.

[DiamondMind]

The crazy thing is you think it matters more in baseball. It is much more important in an effort and moving parts sport like football and hockey than in an incredibly quantifiable slow game like baseball.

 

Baseball is all about individual matchups so I think that lends to more mental mistakes and advantages.

Edited October 10, 2014 by DiamondMind

[DiamondMind]

I like bunting and stolen bases sometimes, that's all. Don't kill me. :beg:

 

The mistake you're making is that thinking that these things somehow are inherently opposed by numbers and probabilities and that doing them is always in conflict with them. And if it actually were the case, which it's not, then it would always be wrong to do them.

 

Yea, I can agree with that mostly.

[treebird]

The crazy thing is you think it matters more in baseball. It is much more important in an effort and moving parts sport like football and hockey than in an incredibly quantifiable slow game like baseball.

 

Baseball is all about individual matchups so I think that lends to more mental mistakes and advantages.

 

why would you think that)

[Derwood]

The crazy thing is you think it matters more in baseball. It is much more important in an effort and moving parts sport like football and hockey than in an incredibly quantifiable slow game like baseball.

 

Baseball is all about individual matchups so I think that lends to more mental mistakes and advantages.

 

why would you think that)

 

Eh, a good hitter could go up against a great pitcher and lose confidence.

 

Also, baseball is the only sport where they're basically playing ever day. There are all sorts of mental things that can go on over the course of 6 months that aren't quantifiable

[jersey cubs fan]

The crazy thing is you think it matters more in baseball. It is much more important in an effort and moving parts sport like football and hockey than in an incredibly quantifiable slow game like baseball.

 

Baseball is all about individual matchups so I think that lends to more mental mistakes and advantages.

 

why would you think that)

 

Eh, a good hitter could go up against a great pitcher and lose confidence.

 

Also, baseball is the only sport where they're basically playing ever day. There are all sorts of mental things that can go on over the course of 6 months that aren't quantifiable

And if that lack of confidence manifested itself then it would result in a quantifiable decline in production.

 

If you were a talented hitter that regularly lost confidence against good pitchers you would probably wash out of the league, if not the minors.

[DiamondMind]

The crazy thing is you think it matters more in baseball. It is much more important in an effort and moving parts sport like football and hockey than in an incredibly quantifiable slow game like baseball.

 

Baseball is all about individual matchups so I think that lends to more mental mistakes and advantages.

 

why would you think that)

 

 

seriously?

[imb]

yes

[Guest]

yes

[Derwood]

The crazy thing is you think it matters more in baseball. It is much more important in an effort and moving parts sport like football and hockey than in an incredibly quantifiable slow game like baseball.

 

Baseball is all about individual matchups so I think that lends to more mental mistakes and advantages.

 

why would you think that)

 

Eh, a good hitter could go up against a great pitcher and lose confidence.

 

Also, baseball is the only sport where they're basically playing ever day. There are all sorts of mental things that can go on over the course of 6 months that aren't quantifiable

And if that lack of confidence manifested itself then it would result in a quantifiable decline in production.

 

If you were a talented hitter that regularly lost confidence against good pitchers you would probably wash out of the league, if not the minors.

 

Fair point. But there are other external factors that could affect a player: sick child, marital problems, depression, etc.

[Sammy Sofa]

Fair point. But there are other external factors that could affect a player: sick child, marital problems, depression, etc.

 

So what?

[Guest]

Fair point. But there are other external factors that could affect a player: sick child, marital problems, depression, etc.

 

So what?

 

so he's not gonna give the big pinch hit AB in the playoffs to the guy who just found out his wife is banging half the team

[Sammy Sofa]

Fair point. But there are other external factors that could affect a player: sick child, marital problems, depression, etc.

 

So what?

 

so he's not gonna give the big pinch hit AB in the playoffs to the guy who just found out his wife is banging half the team

 

I want the furious guy who wants to hit things to go out there and something as hard as he can.

 

It's called playing the percentages; it's what good managers do.

[treebird]

ALSO this whole conversation stems from someone saying baseball lends itself to more mental mistakes than other, less individual sports like basketball and football

 

i still have no idea how someone could think such nonsense

[Guest]

ALSO this whole conversation stems from someone saying baseball lends itself to more mental mistakes than other, less individual sports like basketball and football

 

i still have no idea how someone could think such nonsense

 

it takes a twisted brain to think seinfeld sucks

[treebird]

ALSO this whole conversation stems from someone saying baseball lends itself to more mental mistakes than other, less individual sports like basketball and football

 

i still have no idea how someone could think such nonsense

 

it takes a twisted brain to think seinfeld sucks

 

fact.

[Splendid Splinter]

ALSO this whole conversation stems from someone saying baseball lends itself to more mental mistakes than other, less individual sports like basketball and football

 

i still have no idea how someone could think such nonsense

 

it takes a twisted brain to think seinfeld sucks

 

 

But Seinfeld does suck and is one of the worst show of all time.....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

according to my older brother

 

[jersey cubs fan]

Arizona Diamondbacks ‏@Dbacks · 7m7 minutes ago

OFFICIAL: Chip Hale has been named the 7th manager in #Dbacks history.

[Derwood]

Neat