Stewart's Crappy Luck

[MSG T]

DiamondMind, you'd rather have 2012 Colorado Rockies Tyler Colvin, which wouldn't be the Tyler Colvin the Cubs would have had if they had held on to him.

 

Why? 833 road ops, 861 ops against lhp...so I don't think there's an obvious Coors Field rebuttal here, or something similar.

 

His road OPS was middling or worse until around the Strasburg game, so it surged pretty late as part of the ridiculously unsustainable tear he was on in June and into the very start of July. He's only had 61 PA against LH pitches this year, so it's pretty safe to chalk that up to sample size; him hitting 150 points above his career OPS against lefties clearly is not going to last. And yes, there is the Coors Field factor; Coors, besides it's usual attributes, caters nicely to his strengths (even better than Wrigley; it's often considered the best park in baseball for LH hitters), so in the off chance he has figured something out it's likely largely in part due to his new surroundings.

 

Over his last 30 PA he's put up this line:

 

.154 .241 .192 .434

 

That's a tiny sample size unto itself, but it's a good microcosm of how wildly his numbers can fluctuate.

 

I honestly don't understand. I'd rather of had Jeff Blauser than 2012 Stewart.

 

I'm not being a richard either, I really don't get it. Help me understand.

 

Tyler Colvin had zero future with the new FO: he's an overly aggressive batter who can't walk and strikes out left and right and can't play defense. Basically the choice was coming down to him or LaHair, and if one is having trouble trying to figure out why they went with LaHair they only need to look to Colvin's 2011 season. Stewart was and is an intriguing buy low reclamation project who plays good defense at a position of extreme need for the Cubs. Colvin had no future with the team; Stewart was effectively a low risk investment who would be far more valuable to the Cubs if he panned out (or pans out) until they found a long term option at 3B.

 

Exactly. Even if Stewart never makes it back after surgery and this season is all we get, it was worth the trade and the chance he figured something out. Colvin would have no present or future with this club for the reasons Mojo listed.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Again, when evaluating a "change of scenery" trade, it's hard to hold the GMs responsible for the results. One trade you could compare it to was the 2005 trade which sent Jason DuBois to Cleveland for Jody Gerut. While neither were ever as highly touted as Stewart or to a lesser extent, Colvin, they were fairly well regarded in their respective organizations. However, their organizations were at the time ready to give up on them, and decided to match up on the two, who were still young enough that they were worth a shot. Neither one became much of anything. Gerut stayed with us for about a month and was promptly traded for Matt Lawton, who stayed around for another month, and I believe he became Justin Berg.

[DiamondMind]

I'm sorry but that's the dumbest [expletive] I've ever read. I'm a believer in metrics, but only to a point.

 

Stewart is/was LOST at the plate, that is OBVIOUS to anyone that's watched him this year.

 

Give me a [expletive] break. I'm not espousing he's worthless, but - wait - yes I am. He's a bum. Get over it.

 

Players like Stewart occur ALL THE TIME, it's sad, yes, but I'm not going to get hung up on a guy that cant hit offspeed/breaking pitches to (literally) save his career, even if 'he has a chance to be better than tyler colvin'. who I also think is a bum, just a better bum.

 

Bring on Vitters.

 

You guys have to draw the line on this SABR [expletive] at some point. It's an important addition to scouting, yea, but if it leads you to defend Ian Stewart just to spite people and prove you're intellectually superior at metrics.....that's enough to throw up 1000 red flags to me and simultaneously lead to me not giving a [expletive].

 

You'll never convince me otherwise so just shut the thread down or whatever. We're both Cubs fans, so lets relate on that, and never speak of Ian Stewart again.

 

Some of you are just a less prophetic version of Meph. He was as bat [expletive] crazy as me, but man, he nailed a lot of points. It's...just how it is.

 

[expletive] Ian Stewart.

[Sammy Sofa]

You OK there?

[DiamondMind]

You OK there?

 

Sort of. It even concerns me, my irrational hatred of Ian Stewart. I need help.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Exactly. Even if Stewart never makes it back after surgery and this season is all we get, it was worth the trade and the chance he figured something out. Colvin would have no present or future with this club for the reasons Mojo listed.

 

Can't agree. I wouldn't have cared if they released Tyler Colvin or not, but an MLB starting spot and playing time are more valuable than to waste them on a hopeless retread who has to overcome both severe hitting issues and a wrist injury.

[DiamondMind]

an MLB starting spot and playing time are more valuable than to waste them on a hopeless retread who has to overcome both severe hitting issues and a wrist injury.

 

I love you.

 

I'd rather have a 40 year old mickey morandini at 3rd. or josh vitters, Im not picky.

Edited July 22, 2012 by DiamondMind

[Sammy Sofa]

Not that anyone was defending Stewart as being much more than a hopeful shot at a placeholder, but hey, since you went kinda nuts, here's what Stewart put up in his second month as a Cub (82 PA):

 

.225 .329 .437 .766

 

Couple that with his defense and that's perfectly serviceable at 3B until a better option is available.

[DiamondMind]

 

.225 .329 .437 .766

 

 

valbuena's corresponding month: .220 .264 .480 .744

 

n&g you're one of the last people I want to argue with on here, i love your passion, but ian stewart is a [expletive] bum.

[Sammy Sofa]

Exactly. Even if Stewart never makes it back after surgery and this season is all we get, it was worth the trade and the chance he figured something out. Colvin would have no present or future with this club for the reasons Mojo listed.

 

Can't agree. I wouldn't have cared if they released Tyler Colvin or not, but an MLB starting spot and playing time are more valuable than to waste them on a hopeless retread who has to overcome both severe hitting issues and a wrist injury.

 

What are you talking about? The Cubs needed a 3B; the FA market stunk and they didn't have a decent in-house option that was ready. Stewart was and is an intriguing reclamation project and he's not blocking anyone. Unless you're just doing the third act in your "I HATE STEWART...NOW I LOVE HIM" epic.

[Sammy Sofa]

 

.225 .329 .437 .766

 

 

valbuena's corresponding month: .220 .264 .480 .744

 

n&g you're one of the last people I want to argue with on here, i love your passion, but ian stewart is a [expletive] bum.

 

This is twice now you've created strawmen arguments that nobody was fighting for; first it was ranting like people were propping Stewart up like he was some kind of star and now it's making a comparison like people were doing a Stewart vs. Valbuena thing.

 

Besides, how is it Valbuena's line is OK for you but Stewart's better line means he's a "bum?"

[Sammy Sofa]

And, just to clarify yet again, nobody is defending Stewart as being the answer at 3B.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Not that anyone was defending Stewart as being much more than a hopeful shot at a placeholder, but hey, since you went kinda nuts, here's what Stewart put up in his second month as a Cub (82 PA):

 

.225 .329 .437 .766

 

Couple that with his defense and that's perfectly serviceable at 3B until a better option is available.

 

If I say a guy has a 99% chance that he'll suck, and you say 80%, and he sucks, then I'm not going to call scoreboard, obviously. But I think you are incredibly overselling the chance that he'd be serviceable outside of any random 82-PA stretches here and there. It's hard for a hitter to overcome huge contact issues, and it's hard for a hitter to overcome a major wrist injury. Both at the same time? It's pretty close to hopeless.

 

If I could strike one concept from the baseball fans' collective mind these days, it'd be "buy low." I'm so sick of hearing about buy low, as if the secret to finding good ballplayers is to look for people who have sucked recently.

 

Ian Stewart was given a job because he came at practically no cost and the front office, as you said, wanted a placeholder. They took the concept of organizational roster fill and applied it to the majors. That's both an indictment of his abilities and their priorities.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Valbuena is also really bad, in case that needed to be said.

[Sammy Sofa]

Not that anyone was defending Stewart as being much more than a hopeful shot at a placeholder, but hey, since you went kinda nuts, here's what Stewart put up in his second month as a Cub (82 PA):

 

.225 .329 .437 .766

 

Couple that with his defense and that's perfectly serviceable at 3B until a better option is available.

 

If I say a guy has a 99% chance that he'll suck, and you say 80%, and he sucks, then I'm not going to call scoreboard, obviously. But I think you are incredibly overselling the chance that he'd be serviceable outside of any random 82-PA stretches here and there. It's hard for a hitter to overcome huge contact issues, and it's hard for a hitter to overcome a major wrist injury. Both at the same time? It's pretty close to hopeless.

 

If I could strike one concept from the baseball fans' collective mind these days, it'd be "buy low." I'm so sick of hearing about buy low, as if the secret to finding good ballplayers is to look for people who have sucked recently.

 

Ian Stewart was given a job because he came at practically no cost and the front office, as you said, wanted a placeholder. They took the concept of organizational roster fill and applied it to the majors. That's both an indictment of his abilities and their priorities.

 

And since nobody is arguing in favor of him being more than a placeholder, what's the problem?

 

And pointing out his May is because we don't have much to go on this season because he barely played two months. His numbers are skewed by his rough start, and then ideally it looked like things were maybe panning out. Then unfortunately the wrist knocked him out. Nowhere did I say that June was proof he was a lock to perform; my point all along has just been to contrast the ridiculous hyperbole from people who can't stand Stewart because they incorrectly think he stunk his entire time as a Cub or that think such a minor acquisition is somehow significantly detrimental to the team, either in the short run or the long run. The odds were that 3B was going to be varying degrees of mediocrity at best this season anyway, so why the histrionics? They took a shot on Stewart and it didn't pan out this season. So what?

Edited July 22, 2012 by Sammy Sofa

[Hairyducked Idiot]

And since nobody is arguing in favor of him being more than a placeholder, what's the problem?

 

I consider "interesting reclamation project" to be a step up from "placeholder," and I don't believe he warrants the former. If they were going to use a placeholder, I really wish they'd put a little more effort and/or resources into it and gotten one who actually was interesting and had some hope.

 

And pointing out his June is because we don't have much to go on this season because he barely played two months. His numbers are skewed by his rough start, and then ideally it looked like things were maybe panning out. Then unfortunately the wrist knocked him out.

 

You pointed out his May, his June was shorter and bad. But it doesn't matter because his numbers weren't skewed by anything. They were what they were, all the months counted.

 

Nowhere did I say that June was proof he was a lock to perform; my point all along has just been to contrast the ridiculous hyperbole from people who can't stand Stewart because they incorrectly think he stunk his entire time as a Cub or that think such a minor acquisition is somehow significantly detrimental to the team, either in the short run or the long run. The odds were that 3B was going to be varying degrees of mediocrity at best this season anyway, so why the histrionics? They took a shot on Stewart and it didn't pan out this season. So what?

 

Iowa's starting third baseman should be a minor acquisition, Chicago's should not. The fact that we considered our starting third baseman to be of such minor consequence that we wasted MLB playing time on a guy who had virtually no shot at being anything is upsetting.

[Sammy Sofa]

Kyle, don't be so willfully dense; where exactly was this burning 3B market out there, trade or FA? 3B was effectively a write-off this season because of that couple with how barren the system was (both for a significant trade to upgrade the position or to have a decent in-house option). This is a tedious heel turn, even for you.

[Little Slide Rooter]

And since nobody is arguing in favor of him being more than a placeholder, what's the problem?

 

I consider "interesting reclamation project" to be a step up from "placeholder," and I don't believe he warrants the former. If they were going to use a placeholder, I really wish they'd put a little more effort and/or resources into it and gotten one who actually was interesting and had some hope.

 

I don't know, how much more interesting we could have have gotten than a 26 year old who was once the #4 prospect in all of baseball? Granted, that was in 2005, but there was, and still is hope for him depending on how his wrist heals.

[Guest]

Valbuena is also really bad, in case that needed to be said.

 

What's not to like about a .264 BA?

 

Oh wait, that's his OBP.

[Schwarber Fan]

I'd say Valbuena's been pretty unlucky too, just by observation. Dude hits a serious amount of deep flyballs to the opposite field that die at the warning track.

[Guest]

an MLB starting spot and playing time are more valuable than to waste them on a hopeless retread who has to overcome both severe hitting issues and a wrist injury.

 

I love you.

 

I'd rather have a 40 year old mickey morandini at 3rd. or josh vitters, Im not picky.

 

He spent the first two months of the season with "I'm feelin Ian" as his location.

[Guest]

Let's clarify. Stewart was showing real improvement as a hitter early on. His K rate was down, and his LD% coupled with his BABIP suggested bad luck. The wrist started to act up more and more, and it was no longer bad luck. He began to legitimately suck.

[Guest]

If the front office "failed" with regard to Stewart, it was that they didn't properly understand and diagnose his wrist troubles and the effect they would have on him. Considering multiple doctors apparently failed at that until a few weeks ago, it's not really an egregious miscalculation, but this is a results-based business so they're accountable nonetheless. Stewart spent April being the unluckiest human being ever to play baseball, spent May being an above average 3B, and spent June being awful in a much different fashion than his April(37% K%, 25% IFFB%) until his wrist forced him to stop playing. As a guy who could've been an above average 3B for 2 more cost controlled seasons after this one during his prime years, I have a very difficult time lamenting his acquisition(with the injury caveat above). I have an even harder time lamenting the loss of platoon OF Tyler Colvin to take that chance on Stewart.

[Vanilla Ice]

If I could strike one concept from the baseball fans' collective mind these days, it'd be "buy low." I'm so sick of hearing about buy low, as if the secret to finding good ballplayers is to look for people who have sucked recently.

This inspired me to look up sneakypower's post from last year in which in he wondered whether the new market inefficiency was in finding "former top prospects whose teams have lost patience".

 

I thought it would be interesting to look back at the players that made him wonder roughly a year later and see how much of their success held up.

 

2012

C  Saltamalacchia        1.5 fWAR
1B Kotchman             -0.6 fWAR
2B Sizemore              0.0 fWAR (out for the season)
3B Hardy                 0.7 fWAR
SS Wood                  0.0 fWAR (OPSing .723 in AAA)
LF Cabrera               4.1 fWAR
CF Maybin                0.8 fWAR
RF Francoeur            -1.1 fWAR
Total                    5.4fWAR 

 

He also included a list of 12 other players at the end of his post that would fit this mold. Of these 12, only 2 (Dexter Fowler and Colby Rasmus) have had much success this year.

 

Here is the link if anybody is curious. http://northsidebaseball.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=29&t=59650&

 

I was pretty surprised at how few of these players have actually success, so I think I might be agreeing with you here.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

He spent the first two months of the season with "I'm feelin Ian" as his location.

 

That doesn't sound like something I would do.