Minor League Discussion & Boxes 4-24-12

[Tyrant]

Where does Burke sit with his fastball? Is he consistently in the low/mid 90's?

[toonsterwu]

Where does Burke sit with his fastball? Is he consistently in the low/mid 90's?

 

That's the indication of where he's been. chatt may be able to provide more specific numbers.

[toonsterwu]

Watching clips of Marco Hernandez, and man, he sure has loads of bat speed, and plate coverage seems solid. Don't mind the lack of production - it's the K's that bother me, but I wonder if he's pressing a bit. But it isn't as if the K's suddenly spiked, so it is a troubling sign. Still, could simply be a bad month and adjusting, at least, I'm hoping.

 

But man ... the bat speed there is quality. Not as fast as the clips of Baez that I've seen, but it's dang good.

[TruffleShuffle]

Final line for Simpson:

4.1ip

8h

5er

7BB

2k

 

I never give up on 1st rounders until they turn 26 but I'm hoping for a 7th inning arm at this point.

 

what if the first rounder should have been picked like 3 rounds later?

 

Based on the arbitrary pre-draft rankings that come draft day more than one team seemed to be willing to ignore if we believe THOSE rumors are true? Not much.

 

So because one or two other teams might have been willing to take him in the sandwich round, that means that he should have been selected in the middle of the first round. Right.

 

The bottom line is that very few talent evaluators saw him as a first round talent. The Cubs did, and they were wrong.

[toonsterwu]

Geesh, I really want to leave this topic alone, and for the most part, I'm going to leave it alone, but it needs to be pointed out again ... his struggles now have to do with the injuries. I don't recall a single report out of college that had Hayden topping out in the mid-80's. This isn't the "talent" that anyone saw.

 

Maybe he still blows at 90-92, the low end of the reports that I recall pre-draft, but again, I think that it isn't accurate to say that his production now is indicative of the talent pre-draft. I fully recognize that Truffle didn't actually explicitly state that, but it veers close enough that I think this needs to be stated again.

 

Now, if you want to criticize the Cubs for something medically-related (misdiagnosis or failure to diagnose the fracture) , or that he might've had the mono pre-draft and that the mono issues were so serious that he was so tremendously weakened (I think, could be wrong, timing was fairly close and I just don't recall), okay, fair game. But ... he's throwing slop up there now, if the reports of topping out mid-80's are true. There wasn't a single report suggesting that his "talent"-level was that of a guy topping out mid-80's.

 

I'm going to leave the rest of the stuff about the pick alone, as we beat that to death in the other thread, but I really felt like this needed to be mentioned again.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

^ Exaxtly and man you're careful with your wording.

 

They didn't draft Simpson as a mid-80s guy who'd both lose size and injure his elbow in his first season of pro ball. It's a case of [expletive] happens...if they missed out on someone obvious, then sure...If he actually lacked talent on draft day, then sure...If the Cubs were an out of the box drafting team in the surrounding years then I'd see the flaw that they were trying to play games in the draft...simply looks like they took who they liked most and could afford to pay and he hasnt come flying out of the gates most likely due to a series of illness and injury.

 

I'm not losing sleep over missing anyone who went after 16 in the draft...Lee would have been nice but grand scheme he's not elite and he's very expensive as prospects go. Not like Simpson is done with pro ball after 3-4 April games second pro season...not that there's much room for optimism it seems.

[Rizzo Smash]

Simpson with another poor start:

4ip

5H

6BB

2K

2ER

I know some here still think he's got a shot. But I'm sticking my fork in him.

Yeah he's done. It was a joke of a pick at the time and it looks even stupider now. Talk about a waste.

[TruffleShuffle]

Geesh, I really want to leave this topic alone, and for the most part, I'm going to leave it alone, but it needs to be pointed out again ... his struggles now have to do with the injuries. I don't recall a single report out of college that had Hayden topping out in the mid-80's. This isn't the "talent" that anyone saw.

 

Maybe he still blows at 90-92, the low end of the reports that I recall pre-draft, but again, I think that it isn't accurate to say that his production now is indicative of the talent pre-draft. I fully recognize that Truffle didn't actually explicitly state that, but it veers close enough that I think this needs to be stated again.

 

Now, if you want to criticize the Cubs for something medically-related (misdiagnosis or failure to diagnose the fracture) , or that he might've had the mono pre-draft and that the mono issues were so serious that he was so tremendously weakened (I think, could be wrong, timing was fairly close and I just don't recall), okay, fair game. But ... he's throwing slop up there now, if the reports of topping out mid-80's are true. There wasn't a single report suggesting that his "talent"-level was that of a guy topping out mid-80's.

 

I'm going to leave the rest of the stuff about the pick alone, as we beat that to death in the other thread, but I really felt like this needed to be mentioned again.

 

my 2011 baseball america prospect handbook states, "Chicago pulled the first huge surprise of the 2010 draft when it selected Simpson with the 16th overall pick. Considered as a fourth- to sixth-round talent by most clubs..." and "They project him as a No. 2 or 3 starter with four average or better pitches, including a knee-buckling curveball, hard slider and effective changeup, not to mention plus control and command. Other teams don't rate his stuff quite as highly and think he'll have to add life to his fastball and work lower in the zone. They also wonder if he has the size to hold up as a starter." it also says that the cubs saw him working at 96-97mph in a division ii playoff game.

 

now yes, it is true that he has gotten hurt and also had mono, but isn't it quite possible that some of those other teams are right? other pitchers get dinged up and maintain their stuff, or see it come back much more quickly. maybe they saw simpson throwing very well in a game or two, and overrated him based on that. i guess one way to look at is that the cubs got unlucky that their pitcher had some injury and illness issues; another way is that the guy really didn't have the consistent ability and frame to overcome setbacks.

[ChiefsVoice]

I'm planning on going to Peoria/Kane County next Friday, am I right in assuming that today's Peoria starter(Burke/Wells) would be scheduled for that day as of right now?

 

No that should be Jose Rosario. We have an off day May 1 so it would bump everyone. The way it looks right now, barring any moves is:

Concepcion, Jensen & Francescon in Lake County

Rosario, Wells/Burke and Concepcion in Fort Wayne

Off Day on Tuesday May 1

Jensen (Wed), Francescon (Thu), Rosario (Fri) in Kane County

Burke/Wells, Concepcion, Jensen & Francescon in Quad Cities commuters

 

Thats our 13 game, 14 day, 2150 mile road trip.

[chattbaseball]

Where does Burke sit with his fastball? Is he consistently in the low/mid 90's?

 

That's the indication of where he's been. chatt may be able to provide more specific numbers.

 

That's where he was during Spring. I really haven't discussed velocity with him to this point. ChiefsVoice might be able to shed a little bit of light on that. Surely some of the parks they've been at have had the pitch speed somewhere in the stadium.

[chattbaseball]

Wells has given up 24 hits in 17 innings.

 

Maybe he's been really unlucky, or maybe he's serving up a lot of whackable strikes.

 

He's given up 18 runs in 17 innings.

 

Minor league pitchers sometimes get deceptively low ERA's because so many of the runs they allow get ignored as unearned. You know, get two outs, walk the bases loaded, have a fielder make an error, then give up five more hits before getting an out. Some terrible pitching, but it helps your ERA because they all list as unearned.

 

Not saying Wells has been like that, but it's a given that ERA's tend to be deceptively low for groundball pitchers because groundballs cause a lot more errors than flies.

 

I'd had a lot of hopes for him entering this season, but 18 runs allowed in 17 April innings in cold Midwest League may involve more than just bad luck.

 

To be honest, I'm not too worried about those numbers for Wells early. I'm more curious about whether or not he is executing the plan they are asking him, if he is aggressively throwing first-pitch strikes, how deep he is working, how his stuff is showing, if he is more efficient than last year. Now, the switch with Burke, if permanent, may make it harder to get a good read on some things with Wells, if Burke continues to go 6. But while the runs are troubling (although only 13 earned, granted, that isn't a good thing either), it's good to see that his sinker is showing well (increased GO/AO ratio in the early going, GB rate is higher in the early going). It's good to see that his K rate is slightly up and his BB rate is significantly down. It sounds like the breaking ball is better than last year (granted, SSS on every comment above, but the same goes for SSS on the negative stuff).

 

I'm not trying to undersell "performance" numbers, as they matter, but all in all, I'm actually quite pleased with Wells in the early going.

 

One thing to keep in mind, of those 18 runs, 10 of them came in one game!!! Just from listening to the games he has pitched, he has pitched pretty well. He had a BRUTAL defensive effort behind him in that game if you'll remember. In one inning he gave up 7 runs, and the inning started with several errors! Also, out of those 18 runs for the season, 12 of them are earned.

[chattbaseball]

I'm planning on going to Peoria/Kane County next Friday, am I right in assuming that today's Peoria starter(Burke/Wells) would be scheduled for that day as of right now?

 

That is correct, however it will be Wells/Burke next time. They will rotate as starter.

 

Hey, out of curiosity, if you know, and if you think it's fine to share (that is, if it's some private conversation, no need to let us know)

 

a) Does Kyler realize how intrigued Cub-dom is with his potential? It isn't just here - seems like other sites are intrigued

 

b) For lack of a better way to phrase it, how confident is Kyler that he can be a starter and move fast (relatively) as a starter, since everyone knows 6 years comes up.

 

c) Does Kyler get a feel, in the early-going, of how higher up might feel about his long-term role/potential?

 

a) One thing Kyler has never done (even in local high school ball) is read the paper and internet sites. He obviously can tell if he's pitching well or not, but I think his knowledge of outside interest is mostly limited to what people tell him. And that's probably a good thing.

 

b) I really don't know if his long term projection is to be a starter or not. I know it's common for minor leaguers to start in order to get innings. I think because of his situation of being converted and being a little older for his current level, getting as many innings as possible is the ultimate goal. Knowing him, he'll have confidence that he can do whatever they ask of him.

 

c) Kyler has always seemed to be a fan- and coach-favorite everywhere he has played. I think the coaching staff and coordinators really like him and want him to do well. Obviously that's the case on a professional level. But on a personal level they like him too. You'd be surprised at how many turds there are in the minors that rub people the wrong way.

 

I'll be honest, I try to minimize my baseball talk with him. We talk briefly about his outings, and then we talk family, travels, etc, etc. ChiefsVoice could probably give you a better idea of the perception on the club, and around the other players, etc. Kyler is very humble and will never talk much about himself, so it's hard for me to get a good read. ChiefsVoice sees it everyday.

[toonsterwu]

truffle, it is very possible the Cubs were wrong. I don't disagree on that. But my point is, the Hayden Simpson that is out there now isn't the one that was seen pre-draft. Everyone acknowledges that the Cubs saw him at his best that year - probably at the start of the year and the end of the year. They didn't see him when he was down, in the middle of the year. Yet, and if I'm wrong, please correct me, the reports from when he was down that year still had him in the low 90's, something he isn't hitting now.

 

What I'm saying is that, from a talent perspective, it isn't the same Hayden. What I did note above is that, if you want to blame the Cubs for some failure from a medical perspective, fine. Maybe there was something medically about him that should've indicated that he would struggle to rehab. Maybe the Cubs didn't do their due diligence on the mono. Maybe (and, heck, probably) they screwed up somewhere last year with him with the fracture. I don't know any of that, and it's fair game.

 

But the "talent" is noticeably different.

[toonsterwu]

I'm planning on going to Peoria/Kane County next Friday, am I right in assuming that today's Peoria starter(Burke/Wells) would be scheduled for that day as of right now?

 

No that should be Jose Rosario. We have an off day May 1 so it would bump everyone. The way it looks right now, barring any moves is:

Concepcion, Jensen & Francescon in Lake County

Rosario, Wells/Burke and Concepcion in Fort Wayne

Off Day on Tuesday May 1

Jensen (Wed), Francescon (Thu), Rosario (Fri) in Kane County

Burke/Wells, Concepcion, Jensen & Francescon in Quad Cities commuters

 

Thats our 13 game, 14 day, 2150 mile road trip.

 

Have fun. Longest road trip of the season?

[ChiefsVoice]

I'm planning on going to Peoria/Kane County next Friday, am I right in assuming that today's Peoria starter(Burke/Wells) would be scheduled for that day as of right now?

 

No that should be Jose Rosario. We have an off day May 1 so it would bump everyone. The way it looks right now, barring any moves is:

Concepcion, Jensen & Francescon in Lake County

Rosario, Wells/Burke and Concepcion in Fort Wayne

Off Day on Tuesday May 1

Jensen (Wed), Francescon (Thu), Rosario (Fri) in Kane County

Burke/Wells, Concepcion, Jensen & Francescon in Quad Cities commuters

 

Thats our 13 game, 14 day, 2150 mile road trip.

 

Have fun. Longest road trip of the season?

 

Yep. Tied for longest I've had here in 10 yrs. We had a 12 gamer in 2009, 13 gamer in 2008 and a 13 gamer in 2004 that was supposed to be 14 but had the last one in Kane County rained out.

[ChiefsVoice]

I'm planning on going to Peoria/Kane County next Friday, am I right in assuming that today's Peoria starter(Burke/Wells) would be scheduled for that day as of right now?

 

That is correct, however it will be Wells/Burke next time. They will rotate as starter.

 

Hey, out of curiosity, if you know, and if you think it's fine to share (that is, if it's some private conversation, no need to let us know)

 

a) Does Kyler realize how intrigued Cub-dom is with his potential? It isn't just here - seems like other sites are intrigued

 

b) For lack of a better way to phrase it, how confident is Kyler that he can be a starter and move fast (relatively) as a starter, since everyone knows 6 years comes up.

 

c) Does Kyler get a feel, in the early-going, of how higher up might feel about his long-term role/potential?

 

a) One thing Kyler has never done (even in local high school ball) is read the paper and internet sites. He obviously can tell if he's pitching well or not, but I think his knowledge of outside interest is mostly limited to what people tell him. And that's probably a good thing.

 

b) I really don't know if his long term projection is to be a starter or not. I know it's common for minor leaguers to start in order to get innings. I think because of his situation of being converted and being a little older for his current level, getting as many innings as possible is the ultimate goal. Knowing him, he'll have confidence that he can do whatever they ask of him.

 

c) Kyler has always seemed to be a fan- and coach-favorite everywhere he has played. I think the coaching staff and coordinators really like him and want him to do well. Obviously that's the case on a professional level. But on a personal level they like him too. You'd be surprised at how many turds there are in the minors that rub people the wrong way.

 

I'll be honest, I try to minimize my baseball talk with him. We talk briefly about his outings, and then we talk family, travels, etc, etc. ChiefsVoice could probably give you a better idea of the perception on the club, and around the other players, etc. Kyler is very humble and will never talk much about himself, so it's hard for me to get a good read. ChiefsVoice sees it everyday.

 

Very humble, he always does interviews with me but you can tell he doesnt want to talk about himself. He has always been a favorite of everyone, not just around here but I know in Boise too. And also in Fort Wayne. I've already gotten emails from the Fort Wayne GM they cant wait to see him this weekend when we are back and he played there 5 years ago. And obviously the people that matter like him or they wouldnt have given him this chance. On a personal note, you have to root for anyone who busts their ass to change roles like this. Its why I'm a big Rick Ankiel fan even though he wasn't necessarily the nicest guy when he came back through here as a rehab pitcher in 2002. But when he was back with Quad Cities as a hitter in 2005, very humbled and appreciative.

[imb]

it also says that the cubs saw him working at 96-97mph in a division ii playoff game.

 

turns out they were using an old radar gun and some of the lights were burnt out