Cardinals nearing extension with Molina

[TruffleShuffle]

well then please explain what the davearm you meant when you said that the sabermetric community doesn't have any clue how to identify an elite defensive catcher.

[davearm2]

well then please explain what the davearm you meant when you said that the sabermetric community doesn't have any clue how to identify an elite defensive catcher.

Okay I'll indulge your question since you are perpetually clueless...

 

What's the WAR value of a catcher...

gaining the trust of his pitching staff?

controlling the other team's running game (and this goes far beyond CS%)?

understanding opposing hitters through experience and video study?

knowing how to call a game, sequence pitches in an AB, etc.?

quarterbacking the infield defense?

giving the pitcher the confidence that if he throws a 2-strike slider in the dirt, it's going to get blocked?

... and on and on.

 

And furthermore, how would any of the above be measured in any sort of meaningful way?

 

This isn't a traditionalist vs. sabermetric rant. And it's not even really about Molina. He's assumed to be good at a lot of these things, but who really knows since they're virtually impossible to quantify?

 

CERA was intended to capture these things, but most everyone agrees it's virtually worthless as a metric.

 

Like Einstein said, not everything that counts, can be counted. Noplace in a baseball game is this more true than at the catcher position.

[TruffleShuffle]

well a lot of things are quantifiable. like how effective catchers are at framing pitches (there's actually a metric for this that places a number value on runs the catcher saves or costs pitchers based on how well they frame pitches). there's WP+PB/(total pitches), which isn't great in a small sample size, but is useful over the long run and when you compare this with other catchers facing the same pitchers. same with how frequently players run - a catcher who doesn't have a lot of SB attempts against is probably a good receiver, and a catcher who consistently throws out more baserunners than his peers on the same roster is probably a good receiver. i have no idea what "quarterbacking the infield defense" means; generally the bench has a lot more to do with infield defense than the catcher.

 

when you take the pitch framing thing into account, the stats on the running game, stats on wild pitch percentage and passed ball percentage, comparing these to other catchers on the same rosters, yes you can get a pretty good idea, numbers-wise, of how good a catcher is defensively. and your original statement is nonsense anyway, because it seems to assume that the sabermetric community completely shuns or doesn't understand scouting.

[davearm2]

well a lot of things are quantifiable. like how effective catchers are at framing pitches (there's actually a metric for this that places a number value on runs the catcher saves or costs pitchers based on how well they frame pitches). there's WP+PB/(total pitches), which isn't great in a small sample size, but is useful over the long run and when you compare this with other catchers facing the same pitchers. same with how frequently players run - a catcher who doesn't have a lot of SB attempts against is probably a good receiver, and a catcher who consistently throws out more baserunners than his peers on the same roster is probably a good receiver. i have no idea what "quarterbacking the infield defense" means; generally the bench has a lot more to do with infield defense than the catcher.

 

when you take the pitch framing thing into account, the stats on the running game, stats on wild pitch percentage and passed ball percentage, comparing these to other catchers on the same rosters, yes you can get a pretty good idea, numbers-wise, of how good a catcher is defensively. and your original statement is nonsense anyway, because it seems to assume that the sabermetric community completely shuns or doesn't understand scouting.

You may have your head in the sand on this, I don't really know. But the 600# gorilla in the proverbial corner of the sabermetric clubhouse is that defensive metrics still aren't very reliable. All you have to do is look at how often there are huge discrepancies between the ratings produced by the various systems to see that a lot of very smart people still haven't cracked this particular nut.

 

And for catchers, hey, it's great that they're innovating and all, but they're nowhere close to having a handle on how to measure all of these factors effectively. Of all the positions on the field, this is the one that's furthest away from meaningfulness.

[TruffleShuffle]

no, that's first base.

 

and what is your position here? that nobody can determine who an elite defensive catcher is? or that some people can, but the sabermetric community cannot?

[davearm2]

no, that's first base.

 

and what is your position here? that nobody can determine who an elite defensive catcher is? or that some people can, but the sabermetric community cannot?

My position was stated in my first post. And since then, I have restated it and elaborated upon it for you.

[TruffleShuffle]

well it's still not very clear, so i guess what you're saying is that the sabermetrics people are embarrassed to admit that they can't perfectly quantify every player's defensive abilities with a number, and therefore they can't determine who is good defensively and who isn't.

[SouthSideRyan]

 

Like Einstein said, not everything that counts, can be counted. Noplace in a baseball game is this more true than at the catcher position.

 

Welp, mineaswell drop 15M on him then.

[davearm2]

 

Like Einstein said, not everything that counts, can be counted. Noplace in a baseball game is this more true than at the catcher position.

 

Welp, mineaswell drop 15M on him then.

We have no way to know what Molina is worth, using the normal saber-tools. So to argue for or against $15M based on sabermetrics makes one look kinda foolish.

[Guest]

Molina is a catcher with a billion miles on his legs, whose only offensive strength is hitting for average(which itself is highly variable), will be 30 at the start of the extension, and whose defensive value will erode faster than other positions because of the nature of catching and the aforementioned billion miles on his legs. It doesn't take knowing his true value to the decimal point to think that counting on Molina to give you 15 million dollars worth of value through his age 34 season might not be a good idea.

[Tryptamine]

 

Like Einstein said, not everything that counts, can be counted. Noplace in a baseball game is this more true than at the catcher position.

 

Welp, mineaswell drop 15M on him then.

We have no way to know what Molina is worth, using the normal saber-tools. So to argue for or against $15M based on sabermetrics makes one look kinda foolish.

 

So basically if we don't agree with your assessment of sabermetrics we're foolish? No one is saying they're perfect, but they're a lot more accurate than "the eye test" especially when we have a as many years to reference as we do for Molina.

[SouthSideRyan]

Molina is a catcher with a billion miles on his legs, whose only offensive strength is hitting for average(which itself is highly variable), will be 30 at the start of the extension, and whose defensive value will erode faster than other positions because of the nature of catching and the aforementioned billion miles on his legs. It doesn't take knowing his true value to the decimal point to think that counting on Molina to give you 15 million dollars worth of value through his age 34 season might not be a good idea.

 

What's so insane about this, is short of an even bigger season from Molina this year, can anyone see him getting this contract on the open market?

[davearm2]

 

Like Einstein said, not everything that counts, can be counted. Noplace in a baseball game is this more true than at the catcher position.

 

Welp, mineaswell drop 15M on him then.

We have no way to know what Molina is worth, using the normal saber-tools. So to argue for or against $15M based on sabermetrics makes one look kinda foolish.

 

So basically if we don't agree with your assessment of sabermetrics we're foolish? No one is saying they're perfect, but they're a lot more accurate than "the eye test" especially when we have a as many years to reference as we do for Molina.

So basically, no.

 

Hey don't take my word for it if you don't want. Read the Fangraphs article linked earlier. Emphasis mine.

 

That brings us to the other question – how good do we think Molina presently is? There’s no question that catcher defense is one area that we just haven’t really figured out, so this is a much more open-ended question than it is with most other players in the sport. Molina has averaged +3.3 WAR per season over the last three years, but that only gives him credit for +0.3 wins per season above an average defensive catcher in terms of value with the glove. If Molina provides more defensive value than can just be measured by his ability to throw out opposing base runners (and he almost certainly does), we could easily be underestimating his value by as much as +1 per season. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if we eventually look back and realize that Molina was more of a +4 to +5 win player the last few years, rather than the +3 to +4 win player that WAR currently values him at.

I'd like to see a show of hands of folks that believe Molina's defense is worth just 0.3 wins. Sure "the eye test" is even more flawed, but at some point you have to step back and say the numbers just don't make any sense here.

 

Which brings us back to my original point: Molina's defense is unquestionably worth something, but we have no reliable way to quantify that value.

[davearm2]

Molina is a catcher with a billion miles on his legs, whose only offensive strength is hitting for average(which itself is highly variable), will be 30 at the start of the extension, and whose defensive value will erode faster than other positions because of the nature of catching and the aforementioned billion miles on his legs. It doesn't take knowing his true value to the decimal point to think that counting on Molina to give you 15 million dollars worth of value through his age 34 season might not be a good idea.

Have you read the fangraphs articles?

 

Not saying you're wrong and they're right, but they address each of these things in great detail, and that analysis produces a much different conclusion.

[TruffleShuffle]

Molina is a catcher with a billion miles on his legs, whose only offensive strength is hitting for average(which itself is highly variable), will be 30 at the start of the extension, and whose defensive value will erode faster than other positions because of the nature of catching and the aforementioned billion miles on his legs. It doesn't take knowing his true value to the decimal point to think that counting on Molina to give you 15 million dollars worth of value through his age 34 season might not be a good idea.

 

What's so insane about this, is short of an even bigger season from Molina this year, can anyone see him getting this contract on the open market?

 

yeah that's the part I really didn't get. The only way he would possibly get a better deal is if he maintained elite defense and hit even better than last year, which was a career year. This is really nowhere close to a hometown discount and really seems like an overpay, especially given that the Cards had nobody to compete against in negotiations right now and for the next several months.

[Formerly Snayke]

Molina is so good at helping out his pitchers that he decided to wait until the team was about to flatline to really pick them up.

 

Pro.

[Formerly Snayke]

It's quite hilarious that we're entering a world where an average-hitting catcher is about to be paid as much as an outfielder who puts up a .900 OPS in his sleep.

There's no doubt in my mind that the sabermetric community has no clue how to put a WAR value on an elite defensive catcher. Or even how to identify an elite defensive catcher.

 

Molina is "elite" in the same way that Derek Jeter became "clutch."

[NonProfitCow]

Molina is a catcher with a billion miles on his legs, whose only offensive strength is hitting for average(which itself is highly variable), will be 30 at the start of the extension, and whose defensive value will erode faster than other positions because of the nature of catching and the aforementioned billion miles on his legs. It doesn't take knowing his true value to the decimal point to think that counting on Molina to give you 15 million dollars worth of value through his age 34 season might not be a good idea.

 

What's so insane about this, is short of an even bigger season from Molina this year, can anyone see him getting this contract on the open market?

No way. It's the second highest AAV ever given to a catcher. McCann and Napoli may match or exceed it, but they have the bat to transition to a corner/DH when their catching skills erode. Hell, Victor Martinez only got 4/50. Yadi very well could end up being an 80 games a year guy with a .675 OPS making 15 mil.

 

Making this deal a year before FA wouldn't the team usually be getting some kind of deal on it? Replacing his 2012 season contract with the new one so he's being paid for 29-33 instead of 30-34, a couple mil per year cheaper etc. I had 4/48 in mind, and was iffy on that. The only way this makes any sense is if the Cards have some proprietary analysis that says his 2011 offensive season was for real (I'm not seeing it) or that his defense is immensely undervalued and they have to think that other teams also have comparable info.

 

But, my gut tells me this is nothing more than a panic move and they don't want to lose Pujols and Molina, who is a massive fan favorite, in consecutive offseasons. I'm not a fan of this move.

[NonProfitCow]

Molina is a catcher with a billion miles on his legs, whose only offensive strength is hitting for average(which itself is highly variable), will be 30 at the start of the extension, and whose defensive value will erode faster than other positions because of the nature of catching and the aforementioned billion miles on his legs. It doesn't take knowing his true value to the decimal point to think that counting on Molina to give you 15 million dollars worth of value through his age 34 season might not be a good idea.

Have you read the fangraphs articles?

 

Not saying you're wrong and they're right, but they address each of these things in great detail, and that analysis produces a much different conclusion.

Yes, the fangraphs articles come to the conclusion that his deal isn't as bad as it sounds if you assume their defensive stats are bad and Yadi is good at all the stuff they can't measure very well and he's a 4 WAR player.

[ManEatingTarp]

I think this signing was as much about PR as it was anything else. Losing Pujols hurt, but continuing to lose players that were part of the last two World Series teams would look even worse because of the supposed payroll flexibility.

 

I don't think it's a bad extension for a few reasons:

 

The Cardinals don't have a catcher in the pipeline that grades out as well as they have at other positions.

They have a lot of young arms that are already at the MLB level, or will be there soon. Having Molina there as the constant is a good thing.

He has a lot of mileage on those knees, but if his brothers are any indication, he should be fine for at least the duration of this contract.

 

I don't love the deal, but it's not terrible. It's also not my money.

[Sammy Sofa]

I miss the old "birds trump sabermetrics" davearm2. It's like somebody unleashed a monster.

[SouthSideRyan]

Jose played like 8 games/year the first 12 years of his career, and Bengie was terrible by the age Yadier will be at the end of this contract.

[Guest]

Molina is a catcher with a billion miles on his legs, whose only offensive strength is hitting for average(which itself is highly variable), will be 30 at the start of the extension, and whose defensive value will erode faster than other positions because of the nature of catching and the aforementioned billion miles on his legs. It doesn't take knowing his true value to the decimal point to think that counting on Molina to give you 15 million dollars worth of value through his age 34 season might not be a good idea.

Have you read the fangraphs articles?

 

Not saying you're wrong and they're right, but they address each of these things in great detail, and that analysis produces a much different conclusion.

 

Yes, and their (extremely optimistic) best case scenario had Molina still falling about 10 million short of his actual contract. In the more likely scenario, he's making 5/75 when he'll really only be adding about 5/50 of value.

[Formerly Snayke]

Jose played like 8 games/year the first 12 years of his career, and Bengie was terrible by the age Yadier will be at the end of this contract.

 

Yeah, Bernie Miklasz, who is normally rational when it comes to this stuff, kept citing Jose and Bengie because they were catching into their mid-30s. The situations aren't comparable at all.

[NonProfitCow]

I'd like to see a show of hands of folks that believe Molina's defense is worth just 0.3 wins. Sure "the eye test" is even more flawed, but at some point you have to step back and say the numbers just don't make any sense here.

I'm not quite sure where 0.3 wins is coming from. Since becoming a full time player he's average +8.4 runs/year by fangraphs defensive numbers. So, nearly a win per year with the glove over other MLB catchers.

 

I'm not going to sit back and say the numbers don't make sense, because the defensive numbers are in relation to other MLB catchers. I think the defensive gap between an average catcher and a great catcher is one of the smallest gaps on the diamond.

 

Which brings us back to my original point: Molina's defense is unquestionably worth something, but we have no reliable way to quantify that value.

That point is fine. But you're assuming that Yadi is off the charts good at the stuff that can't be quantified very well.