Draft Strategy

[davell]

Well, now that the new CBA is in effect, how would you approach the draft? There's no more overslotting basically. The pool we will be given is a strict allotment based on the exact value of all our picks. Granted, our 6th pick has a value of 3.3 mill or so. Our 2 supplemental round picks will fall somewhere in between 900,000 and 1.5 mill. Our 2nd rounder will probably be in the 750,000 range, our 3rd rounder around 500,000, 4th probably 300,000, 5th should be 200,000 and my guess is rounds 6 to 10 will all be in the 150,000 area. Rounds 11 to 40 all have a cap of 100,000 per pick. My guess is our allotment will be in the 8 to 8.5 mill area. So, do you make all top 10 round pick directly by slot? Or do you spend bigger on 4 or 5 guys and make the rest "signability guys who are probably just org filler? At any rate, I think I definitely lean towards 3 or 4 bigtime acquisitions and roll the dice we can spend some money wisely in rounds 11 to 40 to get a few other "real" prospects. My big issue with this new CBA is some of these high upside, top 15ish type picks will hold the drafting teams hostage, wanting the bulk of the draft allotment. It's a slippery slope, with lots of unknowns and this first year will have lots of trial and error most likely. But each pick becomes more important to sign inside the top 10 rounds or that value is taken away from your pool. With an allowance of up to 5% overage allowed with a 75% penalty on that overage, I figure we'll be able to overslot a total of about 450,000. Assuming we pay the extra cash, which I think we will.

[Outshined_One]

Frankly, I'm hoping the Cubs are looking to exploit every single loophole they can find in the new CBA. As you said, the first year will have a lot of trial and error. Why not test the limits?

 

For example, if there's a guy with questions about signability, would it be possible for the Cubs to sign him to a deal for slot that includes escalator clauses (i.e. if he makes the 40 man, he gets a $1m bonus)? What about opt-out clauses? Renegotiation clauses?

[davell]

I thought there was no way to put a guy on the 40 man? But, I have't seen the language. I have a feeling it's pretty ironclad most likely. But, if we've got 8.5 mill allotted, you could do something like this: 4 mill, 1.5 mill, 1.5 mill, 800,000. Then, you've got 700,000 plus the overage of 425,000 to spend on 7 other top 10 round guys. Then, you've got the ability to spend 3 mill on the rest of the draft, but there's no way to do it unless you literally sign everyone else for exactly 100,000. My guess is you leave the overage penalty money for that part of the draft, to maybe give out a couple of 300,000 bonuses. But yeah, if there is any language in the CBA that can be exploited, I feel very confident our guys will use it to their advantage. If you can renegotiate somehow with guys afterwards, that would be awesome. Because I honestly think if given the chance, we would have been throwing around 15 to 20 mill on the draft. I was in favor of just spending completely crazy and losing a 1st the following year, but it'd be 2, back to back, and since we'll have a high pick next year, it doesn't make sense to do immediately. But, a good team, who's going to have low picks anyway? It makes sense to me to work it like that. One crazy spending year, 2 penalized years, where you can probably still sign a pair of 1 mill guys, then back to crazy spending again.

[Guest]

How can they outlaw the Szczur / Samardzija approach? It becomes a separate contract well after the draft. I'm not sure how they can guard against that.

[jersey cubs fan]

How can they outlaw the Szczur / Samardzija approach? It becomes a separate contract well after the draft. I'm not sure how they can guard against that.

 

I'm not sure you can either, but it'll be a very limited use. Those situations worked because you signed them initially and then paid them to leave football. You'd need to scout 2-sport guys who might have a legit chance at sticking with the other sport and that's just a very limited supply. You aren't going to get the elite baseball prospects on that plan because they will be baseball centric athletes.

[KingCubsFan]

The penalties from rounds 10-50 only come into play for bonuses over 500k, correct? If so, I think they should target a lot of talent that will sign for 499k. That obviously won't get you star talent, but at least it should help continue to build the depth in the system, particularly since they don't want to be penalized for next year's draft.

[davell]

First off, draft has been cut back to 40 rounds from 50. But any bonuses outside the top 10 rounds exceeding 100,000 count towards your top 10 round allotment.

[javy knows my name]

First off, draft has been cut back to 40 rounds from 50. But any bonuses outside the top 10 rounds exceeding 100,000 count towards your top 10 round allotment.

 

Good God, I hate this thing.

[wvcbxl]

First off, draft has been cut back to 40 rounds from 50. But any bonuses outside the top 10 rounds exceeding 100,000 count towards your top 10 round allotment.

 

So basically you'd use rounds 9 and 10 on the overslotting/signability gambles usually taken a lot later.

[davell]

Nah, I think you have to make sure you sign ALL of your top 10 round picks. If not, you lose whatever money was allotted for that pick. I'd maybe go with 3 to 5 big money guys and the rest, I'd take org guys I knew I could sign for 25,000 or so. Any money left over att that point can be left to some guys drafted later on.

[Outshined_One]

I thought there was no way to put a guy on the 40 man? But, I have't seen the language.

 

The major league contracts are gone. I was talking about signing a guy to a minor league deal, but including language in there that if a player reaches the 40 man roster by a given date, the player gets a multimillion dollar bonus.

 

There also was supposedly some provision in there about penalties for teams attempting to circumvent the rules, but I haven't been able to find a copy of the new CBA yet.

[TruffleShuffle]

First off, draft has been cut back to 40 rounds from 50. But any bonuses outside the top 10 rounds exceeding 100,000 count towards your top 10 round allotment.

 

Good God, I hate this thing.

 

yeah i actually liked "do whatever the hell you want." it was fun to hope that your team would grab a high price tag guy in the 15th round. wish they hadn't monkeyed around with the draft.