Front Office Strategy

[NoDak]

Is it possible we have a front office with a strategy likely to lead to success in the next 3-5 years? Going on some of their big moves this seems to be a simplified version of their strategy:

1. This is not a championship team. Therefore, there is no point in "keeping the nucleus together." There are very few pieces in place that are likely to lead to a championship team. Everyone is available for the right price (with the possible exception of Starlin Castro--21 year old hit leaders are hard to get "equal value for").

2. Focus on acquiring high ceiling prospects. They need not contribute to this years team, or the team in 2013. If we do this, we will likely have some very good players entering their prime, under team control with VERY favorable contracts for several years allowing us to have plenty of funds available to sign free agents to fill any gaps that appear.

3. Be aware when you are trading from a position of strength or a position of weakness. If from a position of weakness decide if you should just get what you can and run OR if you should simply keep the player. If in a position of strength make sure that you are going to get prospects likely to be of equal value in the future.

4. Pay for the future, not the past. Stay away from elite players on the wrong side of 30 who have proven themselves to be winners. They are likely to sign HUGE contracts that will result in disappointment in about 5-6 years (e.g. Soriano).

5. Because this team if several years away from strong contention be VERY sparing in the signing of major league free agents. You are better off waiting until you see which of your prospects pan out and fill in spots later when you know what they can do.

[Guest]

Howdy, NoDak!

 

I think there are a lot of additional nuances, but that's a fair summary of what we've seen to date.

[tspain]

This past season, the Cubs were old and bad, next season they will be young and bad, with the opportunity of getting better. A much different deal. The old, tired, and unenthused guys will be gone. Be watching a team that will hussle, be enthused, and show it every game. They will run out every ball, unlike some of the old guys from years past. I got real tired of watching that.

 

Front Office is building a 90 win team every year, year in and year out. It will happen. Just like it was in Boston. There, you knew they would battle the Yankees every year for the division title. Now you will know it here.

 

Yes, it may take a year or two, but the plan is well under way. They have Soriano to get rid of yet, and they will. And I think they will trade Garza in time to the highest bidder, adding some more good young players, putting them closer to competing in the nearer future. They got something for Big Z. The owner did say he would not pitch for the Cubs again right after he walked out on the team and quit. So everyone had to know he would not be back on this team, just a matter to time. Volstad was a nice return for a player you had to trade.

 

Other players are likely to be gone as well, Byrd, Soto, Marmol, either this offseason, or next year at the trade deadline. They will gather as many prospects as possible.

 

Next year, they will look at all the minor leaguers we have, and see who will work and who won't, and see just how much work they have in front of them. Let us hope several of last year's June Draft picks are good enough to help when we get good. That will make the job much easier and quicker. They will decide that as they get to watch them play next season.

 

So far, I like the process, and plan, and the moves they have made to get us there. This is the first time in a long time the Cubs have had a plan, far as I could tell. I believe Dallas Green did way back yonder. You cannot just plug holes and hope to win, Cubs have proven that for many many years. This is the right plan, and given time, it will yield great rewards.

 

90 wins per season are coming, sooner than you think. A team with a chance to win every year is on the horizion. Be patient, the FO knows what they are doing, I can clearly see.

[Backtobanks]

This past season, the Cubs were old and bad, next season they will be young and bad, with the opportunity of getting better. A much different deal. The old, tired, and unenthused guys will be gone. Be watching a team that will hussle, be enthused, and show it every game. They will run out every ball, unlike some of the old guys from years past. I got real tired of watching that.

 

Front Office is building a 90 win team every year, year in and year out. It will happen. Just like it was in Boston. There, you knew they would battle the Yankees every year for the division title. Now you will know it here.

 

Yes, it may take a year or two, but the plan is well under way. They have Soriano to get rid of yet, and they will. And I think they will trade Garza in time to the highest bidder, adding some more good young players, putting them closer to competing in the nearer future. They got something for Big Z. The owner did say he would not pitch for the Cubs again right after he walked out on the team and quit. So everyone had to know he would not be back on this team, just a matter to time. Volstad was a nice return for a player you had to trade.

 

Other players are likely to be gone as well, Byrd, Soto, Marmol, either this offseason, or next year at the trade deadline. They will gather as many prospects as possible.

 

Next year, they will look at all the minor leaguers we have, and see who will work and who won't, and see just how much work they have in front of them. Let us hope several of last year's June Draft picks are good enough to help when we get good. That will make the job much easier and quicker. They will decide that as they get to watch them play next season.

 

So far, I like the process, and plan, and the moves they have made to get us there. This is the first time in a long time the Cubs have had a plan, far as I could tell. I believe Dallas Green did way back yonder. You cannot just plug holes and hope to win, Cubs have proven that for many many years. This is the right plan, and given time, it will yield great rewards.

 

90 wins per season are coming, sooner than you think. A team with a chance to win every year is on the horizion. Be patient, the FO knows what they are doing, I can clearly see.

 

The only point I disagree with is "sooner than you think". If Theo is going to take 4-5 years, then I will be disappointed because he has the resources to do it sooner.

[Castro13]

This past season, the Cubs were old and bad, next season they will be young and bad, with the opportunity of getting better. A much different deal. The old, tired, and unenthused guys will be gone. Be watching a team that will hussle, be enthused, and show it every game. They will run out every ball, unlike some of the old guys from years past. I got real tired of watching that.

 

Front Office is building a 90 win team every year, year in and year out. It will happen. Just like it was in Boston. There, you knew they would battle the Yankees every year for the division title. Now you will know it here.

 

Yes, it may take a year or two, but the plan is well under way. They have Soriano to get rid of yet, and they will. And I think they will trade Garza in time to the highest bidder, adding some more good young players, putting them closer to competing in the nearer future. They got something for Big Z. The owner did say he would not pitch for the Cubs again right after he walked out on the team and quit. So everyone had to know he would not be back on this team, just a matter to time. Volstad was a nice return for a player you had to trade.

 

Other players are likely to be gone as well, Byrd, Soto, Marmol, either this offseason, or next year at the trade deadline. They will gather as many prospects as possible.

 

Next year, they will look at all the minor leaguers we have, and see who will work and who won't, and see just how much work they have in front of them. Let us hope several of last year's June Draft picks are good enough to help when we get good. That will make the job much easier and quicker. They will decide that as they get to watch them play next season.

 

So far, I like the process, and plan, and the moves they have made to get us there. This is the first time in a long time the Cubs have had a plan, far as I could tell. I believe Dallas Green did way back yonder. You cannot just plug holes and hope to win, Cubs have proven that for many many years. This is the right plan, and given time, it will yield great rewards.

 

90 wins per season are coming, sooner than you think. A team with a chance to win every year is on the horizion. Be patient, the FO knows what they are doing, I can clearly see.

 

Doubtful...Show me a team in the majors that every player runs out every ball...

 

hint: you wont find one

[Beer Kaese]

I don't think it's a 3 to 5 year rebuild.

 

2012 is lost for sure but 2013 you have Z and Dempster off the books and you've had time to assess the prospects you've acquired. I see an exciting team in 2013 and a contender in 2014.

[Magnetic Curses]

This past season, the Cubs were old and bad, next season they will be young and bad, with the opportunity of getting better. A much different deal. The old, tired, and unenthused guys will be gone. Be watching a team that will hussle, be enthused, and show it every game. They will run out every ball, unlike some of the old guys from years past. I got real tired of watching that.

 

Front Office is building a 90 win team every year, year in and year out. It will happen. Just like it was in Boston. There, you knew they would battle the Yankees every year for the division title. Now you will know it here.

 

Yes, it may take a year or two, but the plan is well under way. They have Soriano to get rid of yet, and they will. And I think they will trade Garza in time to the highest bidder, adding some more good young players, putting them closer to competing in the nearer future. They got something for Big Z. The owner did say he would not pitch for the Cubs again right after he walked out on the team and quit. So everyone had to know he would not be back on this team, just a matter to time. Volstad was a nice return for a player you had to trade.

 

Other players are likely to be gone as well, Byrd, Soto, Marmol, either this offseason, or next year at the trade deadline. They will gather as many prospects as possible.

 

Next year, they will look at all the minor leaguers we have, and see who will work and who won't, and see just how much work they have in front of them. Let us hope several of last year's June Draft picks are good enough to help when we get good. That will make the job much easier and quicker. They will decide that as they get to watch them play next season.

 

So far, I like the process, and plan, and the moves they have made to get us there. This is the first time in a long time the Cubs have had a plan, far as I could tell. I believe Dallas Green did way back yonder. You cannot just plug holes and hope to win, Cubs have proven that for many many years. This is the right plan, and given time, it will yield great rewards.

 

90 wins per season are coming, sooner than you think. A team with a chance to win every year is on the horizion. Be patient, the FO knows what they are doing, I can clearly see.

 

interesting ideas there. now tell me, do you like thick onion gravy?

[jumbo]

I don't think it's a 3 to 5 year rebuild.

 

2012 is lost for sure but 2013 you have Z and Dempster off the books and you've had time to assess the prospects you've acquired. I see an exciting team in 2013 and a contender in 2014.

 

They'll have a top 6 pick this year and higher draft $ total given their draft position. Then they'll have another offseason of moves. The 2013 draft could be pretty promising if they're as bad this coming season as a lot of people think they will be. I realize draft picks take time, but the system should be much improved by June 2013.

[NoDak]

Howdy, NoDak!

 

I think there are a lot of additional nuances, but that's a fair summary of what we've seen to date.

 

My original draft read more like a dissertation that would have taken 20 minutes to read. I decided to do a cliffs notes version!

[davell]

I think a TON has to go right for us to contend in 2013, but I guess it's possible. Cespedes needs to be signed and be a legit middle of the order hitter by then. Sign as many IFA's as possible the rest of this offseason, trade Garza, Marmol, Byrd, and Soto to acquire as much talent as possible between now and the deadline. Draft college pitching early and often(ready by 2014 in perfect world). One of LaHair or Stewart needs to become legit .800 OPS guy(if LaHair, he plays LF). Castro takes another couple of steps forward. Rizzo and Brett are solid regulars by then. Wood or Volstad becomes a mid rotation guy or more, the other is a 4. Turner, or someone else we've received for Garza becomes a frontline starter. Bullpen has bunch of power arms from system in it and succeeding. Through FA or trade, we add a star bat and pitcher. Possible? Nah, I can't even convince myself. 2014 at the earliest.

[NoDak]

OK, if we are rebuilding, would it be wise to trade Soto?

What about Marmol?

Dempster at the deadline?

Byrd is as good as gone (final year of contract...I see him going at the deadline for a couple of mid-level prospects). Some team will be looking for a utility outfielder or short term replacement for an injury. If I remember right it is a very tradeable contract.

[Little Slide Rooter]

It seems like they plan to try out as many low risk acquisitions and internal options as they can even if it seems like they're adding guys they don't need. After a year or two, they should have a pretty good idea of what positions are held down and what they need, at which point they'll fill those holes with higher priced free agents.

 

Kind of the opposite of what Theo did in Boston. He had his star players already there and built around them with good, affordable players. If things go as planned, he'll have his good, affordable players lined up and add some established stars where he needs them. The key to this is hoping that by the time everything's lined up, the affordable players that work out remain affordable.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Epstein/Hoyer have been on the job less than three months, right? In that time, they've managed to fill the horrific organizational hole at 1b and flip Sean Marshall for a middle of the rotation starter and two useful parts. Meanwhile, they've got to have eleventy bajillion dollars to spend.

 

I'm pretty sure they can do a lot of magic in 15 more months.

[davell]

To me, trading Soto is the smart thing to do, as soon as a market is there for him. In 2013, he'll be in his last arb year, 30 years old, and wanting a long term deal. Which I wouldn't feel comfortable with at all. Let Castillo have a shot. Hell, if you draft Zunino, it's possible he's ready by 2014 or you can trade for someone, once the depth of the top end of your system is there. Assuming Castillo isn't a starter obviously. Dempster? He's expensive, so he's going to either have to be having an excellent 2012 or we'll have to eat some money, but he's not going to be a member of the 2013 Cubs most likely. Marmol? Same as Soto, trade him when there's a market. One of Samardzija, Dolis, or Carpenter should be OK as a closer.

[Clem Fandango]

OK, if we are rebuilding, would it be wise to trade Soto?

What about Marmol?

Dempster at the deadline?

Byrd is as good as gone (final year of contract...I see him going at the deadline for a couple of mid-level prospects). Some team will be looking for a utility outfielder or short term replacement for an injury. If I remember right it is a very tradeable contract.

 

I soured on Soto a couple years ago. Even after his great bounce back campaign I didn't expect him to sustain that level of production. It could be wise to hang on to him to see if he can build his value back up after a rough 2011, I would think.

 

I think Marmol should go simply because of the uncertaintly behind his reliability, health, and his ridiculous penchant for inconsistency. Trade him while you can wrap a pretty bow around his K totals and hope people ignore the fact he's the most volatile closer in the game right now before more people take notice this season, IMO.

 

I think you trade Dempster whenever. Trade him now a team gets a full year out of him vs. a half year, but Dempster isn't the kind of guy teams need a full year out of. He definitely fits the "We need a reliable mid rotation guy to help bolster the starting 5" mold, which a lot of team tends to go after at the deadline. Even if he puts up league average numbers, he might yield a similar return at the deadline than he would now. I say trade him whenever they feel is best, just so long as he is, in fact, traded for something

 

Byrd should be one of the easiest pieces to move. He's still productive, one more year, very affordable contract. He won't bring back a big return, but I think trading him now brings back a better return than later, personally.

[davell]

Epstein/Hoyer have been on the job less than three months, right? In that time, they've managed to fill the horrific organizational hole at 1b and flip Sean Marshall for a middle of the rotation starter and two useful parts. Meanwhile, they've got to have eleventy bajillion dollars to spend.

 

I'm pretty sure they can do a lot of magic in 15 more months.

No doubt. I'm pretty damn sure that heading into 2013, we'll all be excited with what's been done and what the outlook is. But, I don't think playoffs is probably realistic(assuming we dismantle this thing completely) until 2014, barring some luck or unforeseen circumstances. The scenario I brought up a few posts ago just seem too unrealistic to actually happen.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Epstein/Hoyer have been on the job less than three months, right? In that time, they've managed to fill the horrific organizational hole at 1b and flip Sean Marshall for a middle of the rotation starter and two useful parts. Meanwhile, they've got to have eleventy bajillion dollars to spend.

 

I'm pretty sure they can do a lot of magic in 15 more months.

No doubt. I'm pretty damn sure that heading into 2013, we'll all be excited with what's been done and what the outlook is. But, I don't think playoffs is probably realistic(assuming we dismantle this thing completely) until 2014, barring some luck or unforeseen circumstances. The scenario I brought up a few posts ago just seem too unrealistic to actually happen.

 

My prediction is that by 2013 even if we're not contending just yet, we'll have an exciting young team to watch as opposed to some band aid covered Frankensteins monster. I'd love to sign Cespedes now and Cain or Hamels next year and see what holes need to be filled from there, and we should have plenty of money to fill them.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I dunno, maybe I'm just drinking the kool-aid, but I think we're a lot closer than some people think, and a lot better.

 

I was expecting the front office to come in and bludgeon the problems away with cash, but they've been much better than that. During the compensation talks, I kept arguing that guys right on the cusp of being regular major leaguers, either AAAers or guys with very little service time, were the most valuable asset in the game outside of true stars. In just a few months we've added Wood, Sappelt (who I think is still being quite underrated) and Rizzo that all fit in that category and could easily lock down key roles for a long time.

 

I'd feel pretty bullish for 2013 about Sappelt, Jackson, Castro, Rizzo and Soto in the lineup and Garza, Wood and Volstad (as a No. 5) in the rotation. That leaves three lineup spots and two rotation spots to be filled, and given the sheer amount of resources we have and the quickly-amassing track record of the front office, I think five spots to be filled is very doable.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I guess I'm not feeling the Sappelt love that some feel. Seems like a useful enough guy to have around at a low cost but nobody to get excited about. He certainly doesn't seem to have the bat of a corner outfielder and seems like a younger Reed Johnson, which make the signing of the older, broken down version more puzzling.

[davell]

I dunno, maybe I'm just drinking the kool-aid, but I think we're a lot closer than some people think, and a lot better.

 

I was expecting the front office to come in and bludgeon the problems away with cash, but they've been much better than that. During the compensation talks, I kept arguing that guys right on the cusp of being regular major leaguers, either AAAers or guys with very little service time, were the most valuable asset in the game outside of true stars. In just a few months we've added Wood, Sappelt (who I think is still being quite underrated) and Rizzo that all fit in that category and could easily lock down key roles for a long time.

 

I'd feel pretty bullish for 2013 about Sappelt, Jackson, Castro, Rizzo and Soto in the lineup and Garza, Wood and Volstad (as a No. 5) in the rotation. That leaves three lineup spots and two rotation spots to be filled, and given the sheer amount of resources we have and the quickly-amassing track record of the front office, I think five spots to be filled is very doable.

You know what? Damn, you're right. Now, I have been all in on trading Garza, but extending him for 4 or 5 years could really work. Looking at your squad, I'd replace Sappelt with Cespedes. And it's at least plausible one of Stewart or LaHair makes it. I'm still dealing Marmol though. Still, a lineup including Soto, Castro, Rizzo, Brett, and Cespedes with those 3 in the rotation and a bullpen, minus Marmol is only going to cost us around 65 million INCLUDING Soriano. Leaving us 65 to 70 mill to fill a couple of spots in the lineup and a couple of very nice pitchers. And, since my guess is we'll have built the system up quite a bit by then, a couple of trades for more lower priced super productive guys seems reasonable. I hadn't really looked at how a team full of what we've acquired looks like with what's left, because I've been thinking everything's gone, other than Castro. Doesn't have to be that way though at all, it's certainly doable. And sustainable, on top of that.

[davell]

Don't get me wrong though, I can still see Garza and Soto being dealt, IF the return is solid enough obviously. By the way, to get to that 65 mill figure, I counted Soriano at 18, Garza at 12, Castro at 4, Soto at 7, Volstad at 4.5, Cespedes at 10 and our bullpen at 8 total(Shark, Dolis, Carpenter, Russell anchoring it)

[Little Slide Rooter]

I dunno, maybe I'm just drinking the kool-aid, but I think we're a lot closer than some people think, and a lot better.

 

I was expecting the front office to come in and bludgeon the problems away with cash, but they've been much better than that. During the compensation talks, I kept arguing that guys right on the cusp of being regular major leaguers, either AAAers or guys with very little service time, were the most valuable asset in the game outside of true stars. In just a few months we've added Wood, Sappelt (who I think is still being quite underrated) and Rizzo that all fit in that category and could easily lock down key roles for a long time.

 

I'd feel pretty bullish for 2013 about Sappelt, Jackson, Castro, Rizzo and Soto in the lineup and Garza, Wood and Volstad (as a No. 5) in the rotation. That leaves three lineup spots and two rotation spots to be filled, and given the sheer amount of resources we have and the quickly-amassing track record of the front office, I think five spots to be filled is very doable.

You know what? Damn, you're right. Now, I have been all in on trading Garza, but extending him for 4 or 5 years could really work. Looking at your squad, I'd replace Sappelt with Cespedes. And it's at least plausible one of Stewart or LaHair makes it. I'm still dealing Marmol though. Still, a lineup including Soto, Castro, Rizzo, Brett, and Cespedes with those 3 in the rotation and a bullpen, minus Marmol is only going to cost us around 65 million INCLUDING Soriano. Leaving us 65 to 70 mill to fill a couple of spots in the lineup and a couple of very nice pitchers. And, since my guess is we'll have built the system up quite a bit by then, a couple of trades for more lower priced super productive guys seems reasonable. I hadn't really looked at how a team full of what we've acquired looks like with what's left, because I've been thinking everything's gone, other than Castro. Doesn't have to be that way though at all, it's certainly doable. And sustainable, on top of that.

 

Are we talking '12 or '13 here? It's hard to have any hope for '12 other than getting as much for the guys who don't figure into the future as we can. As for '13, even if Stewart doesn't work out there's still hope for Josh Vitters, although 2012 will be a crucial year for him in regards to offense and defense. Maybe give Lake 2nd base at whichever level he ends up. Castillo could also push Soto into trade bait with a strong future. I agree whole heartededly that the future is bright. Just not the immediate future. Cubs fans are just going to have to drop the mentality that a season is a failure if it doesn't end in a World Series win. I'm not saying that people here feel that way but there's a good portion of Cubs fans that do. I gett the feeling that even when we have our ducks in a row, it will still be a few years before that happens. It's hard to jump from bad to great without stopping at good.

[davell]

I don't know where the big bat could from, since the FA class is pretty sad looking and it looks like it'd have to be coming from 2B, 3B, or the OF. We do know Theo likes Ethier and while he's not special, a lineup with Castro/Cespedes/Ethier/Rizzo in the middle could be very formidable. Pitching-wise though, you could sign one of the big names, like Greinke and then make the big trade for King Felix, Timmy, or Price, who all appear at least fairly likely to be on the market by then. A lineup like I just mentioned, followed by a rotation starting out Felix/Greinke/Garza would be phenomenal. Yeah, Kool Aid drinking galore, but why not?

[Guest]

If cleaning house is the method they are using I expected and predicted it would need to be done, I didn't expect it would be so painful.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I really wish the Dodgers didn't lock up Kemp. Selfish bastards. I wonder if the ship for BJ Upton ever being a heart of the lineup bat has sailed away for good. He's a decent defender, isn't he?