What I kind of expect this offseason now(very long)

[davell]

Now that the Pujols sweepstakes are over and Fielder's are about to begin, I'm going to attempt to figure out our team going forward. The team payroll right now projects to 110.1 mill. This includes guesses I've got for arbitration cases and also the 5 mill payout to Pena and Silva's 2 mill buyout. currently we have 4 open roster spots on the 40 man, but I'm counting Wood as being re-signed as well, so it's 3 for now. If our entire baseball budget winds up at 150 mill, I'm figuring we can only spend the 2.9 for IFA after July and 8.1 for the amateur draft to make it an even 11 mill. Leaving us with 134 mill to spend throughout the offseason, both on the majors and the minors as well. I'm also counting 3 mill for the 40 man guys who aren't going to make the major league club.

Pitchers that are on our 40 man right now include the following.....

 

Starters- Cabrera, Coleman, Dempster-15.5m, Garza-9.5m, Wells-2m, Zambrano-18m

 

We have 4 projectable rotation guys right now. I kind of see Wells getting dealt, if only because I have not even heard him mentioned by the braintrust all offseason. The return? No idea really, but my guess is a solid top 15ish talent from a team's system that does NOT have to be placed on the 40 man roster.

Garza is a guy that I still see getting dealt myself. I think Arizona winds up being his landing spot and the return ends up Skaggs/Corbin/Borchering/Miley. This return would put Miley immediately on the 40 man and allows him to compete for the 4/5 spots in the rotation. Skaggs becomes our top prospect. With an outside shot at coming up during the season, though probably would spend the bulk of it in AA. Corbin MAY even become our 2nd best pitching prospect, I view him close with McNutt personally. He could start the year off repeating AA or in AAA, but he projects as a mid rotation guy and could/should get a callup next year at some point. Borchering has HUGE power, but has HUGE holes in his swing. And needs lots of work his glove as well. May wind up strictly as a 1B longterm, but for now still has a chance at 3B. Probably begins the year in AA and needs the full season there.

 

By losing Wells and Garza, the payroll would drop 11.5 mill, so it becomes 11 after adding Miley back to it. The 40 man decreases to 36 with these moves as well.

 

Bullpen

The guys on our 40 man include Beliveau, Cashner-.5m, Castillo, Dolis, Gaub, Maine, Marmol-7.2m, Marshall-3.1m, Mateo, Russell-.5m, Samardzija-2.4m, Wood-2.5m

 

I fully expect a trade to take one of Beliveau, Gaub, or Maine off the 40 man. Too many LOOGY's. Beliveau needs a shot at the major league club, so I see one of Gaub or Maine being gone, probably Maine. Will receive very little in return, but it gives us another roster spot anyway. Since it's likely we'll carry 7 bullpen arms, I've only got salaries listed for 6, meaning I expect one of the others to make the roster. On the other hand, I really see us dealing Marshall. The reasons are simple: As Theo said, he's probably the best lefty hullpen arm in the majors. He has tons of value for his pricetag and we have Russell, who's shown he can be very solid in a relief role to replace him. But, the main reason to trade Marshall is what happens at the end of the season for him? Is he going to accept a 4/16 type extension from us? I doubt it very seriously. Because other teams may view him as a closer or even as a starter potentially. I can honestly see him getting 10 mill a year from some team looking to transform him. Texas being a logical landing spot. So, go ahead and trade him to them. I'll say the return is Cody Buckel and Tanner Scheppers. Scheppers is a power arm that should fit nicely into the back end of the bullpen by next season and Buckel is another mid rotation type guy who'd probably start the season in Daytona.

I don't currently see enough of a market out there to trade Marmol, so hold onto him, see if he reverts back to his previous form and shop him at the deadline possibly. I think either of Cashner or Shark could make a decent closer. Yes, I want Cashner to find his way back to the rotation, but it's not going to happen this year, he needs to build his arm back up. We're saving 3.1 mill here on Marshall, and opening up 2 more roster spots as well.

 

Onto our position players, starting with Catchers.

 

Our catchers are Soto-4.2m, Hill, Castillo, and Clevenger.

Hill is gone, no arb offer coming. I don't see any other movement here honestly. One of Castillo or Clevenger can make the major league roster and while Soto has been dangled, if he has a better season, his value goes back up towards the deadline anyway. Ans there probably will be more of a need at that point than there is currently.

 

Infielders- Our current group of infielders on the 40 man include, Baker-1.75m, DeWitt-1.25m, Barney-.5m, Castro-.5m, LaHair-.5m, Lake, Vitters, and LeMahieu-.5m.

 

I see one of Baker or DeWitt being moved, for this exercise, we'll say it's DeWitt. No other movement here whatsoever. I'll say the trade for Stewart happens and it's DeWitt and Colvin that wind up heading to Colorado. If Stewart is making 3 mill, we add another roster spot here, but add 1.25mill back to the payroll with the Stewart acquisition. Puts our 40 man count at 32 though. Need a 1B obviously.

 

Finally, the Outfield. We have currently this group on our 40 man.....Soriano-18m, DeJesus-4.25m, Campana-.5m, Colvin-.5m, Byrd-6m, and Szczur.

 

Colvin's gone in the Stewart trade and unfortunately, I just don't see us able to trade Soriano, nor do I see us getting the value out of trading Byrd RIGHT NOW, so I think they both stick. Brett Jackson probably makes Byrd expendable by mid season.

 

40 MAN ROSTER count is at 32. Needs are starting pitching and a 1B. Maybe an OFer. I don't personally see any other trades for us out there, other than maybe for a 1B.

 

Moves to make going forward

Payroll stands at this point right at 97 million, with the ability to make it to 139.

First move is to win the posting process on Darvish. Probably going to take 55 million or so to do it. Pitching is scarce and there's going to be the big boys in on this, especially since Valentine loves him. Give him a 5 year contract for 60 million. 12 mill for each year and amateurize the posting fee into the same 5 year period. This counts him as 23 million towards the payroll each year. If there was a way for this to happen without counting the posting fee into payroll, I'd love to find that as an option, but I'm trying to be realistic here.

 

Trade or sign Kendry Morales. He'll cost about 3.5 mill next year and if he's tendered a contract, he's not going to cost us much in trade. Yes, he's a wildcard, but he is a guy that could fit into the middle of the order for us right now. Unfortunately, you have Lahair waiting in the wings here if things go wrong, but I just don't see us able to sign Fielder AND Darvish as well. Maybe Morales becomes Theo's latest version of Ortiz?

 

Sign Wei Yin Chen to a 4 year 16 million dollar contract. 4 mill per season and see if he becomes a mid rotation guy. At his age, he's a potential bargain at this price. Plus, he's a lefty, something we don't have at the major league level, unless Miley makes the rotation.

 

Go ahead and add Rodrigo Lopez for a mill. Theo mentioned it and while it may have been a joke, it's likely we'll add someone like this at any rate.

 

Sign Jorge Soler to a 5 year 25 million deal. This is assuming we've liked what we've seen out of him. Slot him into the system wherever it is he fits and hopefully he moves quickly.

 

This leaves us 3 open spots on the 40 man, by the way. One for Brett Jackson and two for whichever starter earns a callup later in the season.

 

This leaves about 2.5 million left to spend and I'd spend it on a pair of the Dominican arms that were left over from the July 2nd signing period: Mauricio Silva and Manuel Gonzalez. Both have bigtime arms and huge potential.

 

So, is this major league team very good for 2012? No, it's not. But, I think it's realistic. And it at least has a chance to stay in the race in 2012 if things go right. But, the key here is you've built your system up bigtime. You've added Skaggs, Corbin, Borchering, Soler, Scheppers, Buckel, and the 2 16 year old Dominicans over an offseason. By doing this, you've taken the system from what's probably a 17-20ish type system and put it back into the top 10 immediately and one with lots of upside.

 

Your 40 man roster becomes this:

Bullpen- Beliveau, Carpenter, Cashner, Castillo, Dolis, Gaub, Marmol, Mateo, Russell, Samardzija, Wood

Starters- Darvish, Dempster, Zambrano, Chen, Lopez, Miley, Cabrera, Coleman

 

Catchers- Soto, Castillo, Clevenger

 

Infield- Baker, Barney, Castro, Lahair, Lake, LeMahieu, Vitters, Stewart, Morales

 

Outfield- Soriano, Byrd, DeJesus, Campana, Szczur, Soler

 

Lineup for 2012

RF DeJesus

CF Byrd

SS Castro

1B Morales

3B Stewart

LF Soriano

C Soto

2B Barney

 

SP Darvish, Dempster, Zambrano, Chen, Miley

 

RP Marmol, Samardzija, Cashner, Wood, Russell, Carpenter, Lopez

 

Bench Castillo, Baker, Lahair, LeMahieu, Campana

 

Like I am stressing, this IS NOT a contender in 2012, unless things go just right. But, you've got Dempster, Byrd, and Zambrano coming off the books the following year. You should have Skaggs ready to fill a major role on your staff, Brett Jackson should be set in CF by then. And you've got the possibility to move Soto and Marmol as well, since it's fairly likely they're replaceable in house. And your system is in much better shape, to where you can afford to pay up to land a bigtime bat and you'll have money to spend on a bigtime FA arm as well. Pitching is the key here and what looks to be the future strongpoint of this squad, in my scenario. Within 2 seasons, you could have Darvish, Skaggs, Chen, and a bigtime FA as your front 4 with a lineup including Castro and Brett, with Morales and a bigtime bat you've added and maybe Soler's ready or you've traded for another bat as well, but the options are there anyway. Theo has said he wants to build a longterm contender and this is kind of how I see things working out for us. A lean year, maybe 2, but longterm success after that.

[Guest]

You should have Tim put that in a blog post.

[Guest]

I would be very disappointed if they tread water like that with the talent on the MLB roster. That roster without trading Garza, and taking advantage of an opportunity to add another strong player(Upton, Morrison, Shields, Danks, Floyd, Gio, Nolasco, even Headley) is competitive next year without sacrificing anything in the long-term.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Byrd and Soriano should not both be on the roster. 1 at most.

 

And why are we paying any kind of money to Rodrigo Lopez while Beliveau and Dolis are in Iowa?

[davell]

Byrd and Soriano should not both be on the roster. 1 at most.

 

And why are we paying any kind of money to Rodrigo Lopez while Beliveau and Dolis are in Iowa?

I figure even Theo isn't immune to adding the proverbial "6th" starter" type guy. May not be Lopez obviously, but I figure it's gonna be someone.

[Guest]

Byrd and Soriano should not both be on the roster. 1 at most.

 

And why are we paying any kind of money to Rodrigo Lopez while Beliveau and Dolis are in Iowa?

I figure even Theo isn't immune to adding the proverbial "6th" starter" type guy. May not be Lopez obviously, but I figure it's gonna be someone.

http://www.sawauto.com/uploader/up/lifealert.gif

[davell]

I would be very disappointed if they tread water like that with the talent on the MLB roster. That roster without trading Garza, and taking advantage of an opportunity to add another strong player(Upton, Morrison, Shields, Danks, Floyd, Gio, Nolasco, even Headley) is competitive next year without sacrificing anything in the long-term.

TT, I agree it's definitely treading water at the major league level. But adding. Skaggs, Corbin, Borchering, Scheppers, Buckel, Silva, Gonzalez, and Soler all to the minor league system gives us a hell of an improved system, especially considering we'll have a very high pick in the draft, along with 2 comp picks as well. If we somehow did stay in the race, we'd be able to make a deal or two and it not even truly hurt where the system would be headed. Plus, in this case, it puts us in the position next offseason to go out and be what the Angels and Marlins were this one. And we could easily head into 2013 as one of, if not THE best looking roster in the NL.

[A New Era]

I think I tend to agree with Davell's approach. And it might be more what Theo and company move toward. Theo has talked specifically about a team needing as many assets as possible. Ofcourse you could switch Arizona with Texas for the Garza trade partner. Point is though. The "tread water" in 2012 might be the best approach long term. If you can get some really good top 10 prospects for Garza, in addition to the 2 extra early picks from the Ramirez and Pena arb, spend big money on Soler while you still can, and add a few buy low guys with POSSIBLE big potential like Stewart. (I cap'd that word so no one confuses me thinking he's an immediate all-star). .

 

Then in one year, Theo and company have greatly increased this teams assets. Is signing someone like Fielder to a huge contract an immediate satisfaction? yes. And I still wouldn't be unhappy if they did. It's just that, this team needs assets and they need them bad. I think the direction of 2012 will hinge greatly on if they trade Garza or not. Do they keep him, and spend what little assets they have to add another pitcher to compete next year? Or do they trade Garza now when his value is probably at his absolute highest and sacrafice just a little bit of short term, for an almost immediate fix to this teams terrible lacking of assets.

[jersey cubs fan]

We have 4 projectable rotation guys right now. I kind of see Wells getting dealt, if only because I have not even heard him mentioned by the braintrust all offseason.

 

Given all the talk about needing 9 starting pitchers I really doubt that happens, especially with Zambrano still on thin ice and Garza being their best trade chip.

 

 

Although I certainly wouldn't mind seeing Wells dealt.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Heres the thing. When Theo took over as Red Sox GM after the 2002 season, he inherited a 93-69 2nd place team featuring Manny, Trot Nixon, Damon, Pedro, Lowe, and Nomar who was already a regular on the DL.

 

His first aquisitions were Mueller, Millar and a young Twins slugger who hadn't reached his full potential due to playing in a weak hitters park. in 2003, They became a 95-67 2nd place team and won the Wild Card and the ALCS. Not a big difference. Now this would be the equivalant of us acquiring maybe Stewart, Orlando Hudson, and Gaby Sanchez or James Loney and them having a breakout season. If this was the extent of our ofseason, how would people feel?

 

The next year, he acquired Curt Schilling in a big trade. They became a 98-64 2nd place team, which won the Wild Card and ultimately, well, you know. The difference being that he doesnt have Manny, Damon, Nixon, Pedro, and Lowe and a 93-69 team to work with. It's not realistic for us to think he'll get us to the World Series or even the playoffs as quickly as he got the Red Sox. Back then, he was an unproven wunder kind in his first GM job, so he had to play it safe, and he has a much longer leash now, but he really doesn't have much to work with coming in.

[jersey cubs fan]

If this was the extent of our ofseason, how would people feel?

 

 

I would hate it. Theo tweaked a great team and he didn't have nearly as much financial freedom as he has on the Cubs. This isn't a great team, it needs a hell of a lot more than tweaks, and they have plenty of money now, and again next year to make big moves.

[Banedon]

Heres the thing. When Theo took over as Red Sox GM after the 2002 season, he inherited a 93-69 2nd place team featuring Manny, Trot Nixon, Damon, Pedro, Lowe, and Nomar who was already a regular on the DL.

 

His first aquisitions were Mueller, Millar and a young Twins slugger who hadn't reached his full potential due to playing in a weak hitters park. in 2003, They became a 95-67 2nd place team and won the Wild Card and the ALCS. Not a big difference. Now this would be the equivalant of us acquiring maybe Stewart, Orlando Hudson, and Gaby Sanchez or James Loney and them having a breakout season. If this was the extent of our ofseason, how would people feel?

 

The next year, he acquired Curt Schilling in a big trade. They became a 98-64 2nd place team, which won the Wild Card and ultimately, well, you know. The difference being that he doesnt have Manny, Damon, Nixon, Pedro, and Lowe and a 93-69 team to work with. It's not realistic for us to think he'll get us to the World Series or even the playoffs as quickly as he got the Red Sox. Back then, he was an unproven wunder kind in his first GM job, so he had to play it safe, and he has a much longer leash now, but he really doesn't have much to work with coming in.

 

Did we suddenly warp back to the Theo thread? Cuz I'm sure this same post was made about 50 times at least in that thread.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Heres the thing. When Theo took over as Red Sox GM after the 2002 season, he inherited a 93-69 2nd place team featuring Manny, Trot Nixon, Damon, Pedro, Lowe, and Nomar who was already a regular on the DL.

 

His first aquisitions were Mueller, Millar and a young Twins slugger who hadn't reached his full potential due to playing in a weak hitters park. in 2003, They became a 95-67 2nd place team and won the Wild Card and the ALCS. Not a big difference. Now this would be the equivalant of us acquiring maybe Stewart, Orlando Hudson, and Gaby Sanchez or James Loney and them having a breakout season. If this was the extent of our ofseason, how would people feel?

 

The next year, he acquired Curt Schilling in a big trade. They became a 98-64 2nd place team, which won the Wild Card and ultimately, well, you know. The difference being that he doesnt have Manny, Damon, Nixon, Pedro, and Lowe and a 93-69 team to work with. It's not realistic for us to think he'll get us to the World Series or even the playoffs as quickly as he got the Red Sox. Back then, he was an unproven wunder kind in his first GM job, so he had to play it safe, and he has a much longer leash now, but he really doesn't have much to work with coming in.

 

Did we suddenly warp back to the Theo thread? Cuz I'm sure this same post was made about 50 times at least in that thread.

 

It was intended for the Stewart thread adressing the folks in the Stewart trade thread who were complaing about how little has been done so late in the offseason.

[pccubfan]

I think I tend to agree with Davell's approach. And it might be more what Theo and company move toward. Theo has talked specifically about a team needing as many assets as possible. Ofcourse you could switch Arizona with Texas for the Garza trade partner. Point is though. The "tread water" in 2012 might be the best approach long term. If you can get some really good top 10 prospects for Garza, in addition to the 2 extra early picks from the Ramirez and Pena arb, spend big money on Soler while you still can, and add a few buy low guys with POSSIBLE big potential like Stewart. (I cap'd that word so no one confuses me thinking he's an immediate all-star). .

 

Then in one year, Theo and company have greatly increased this teams assets. Is signing someone like Fielder to a huge contract an immediate satisfaction? yes. And I still wouldn't be unhappy if they did. It's just that, this team needs assets and they need them bad. I think the direction of 2012 will hinge greatly on if they trade Garza or not. Do they keep him, and spend what little assets they have to add another pitcher to compete next year? Or do they trade Garza now when his value is probably at his absolute highest and sacrafice just a little bit of short term, for an almost immediate fix to this teams terrible lacking of assets.

 

I agree that the Cubs don't have a lot of assets, in terms of players. Their most available asset is the idle cash that they have sitting on the sidelines. Fielder is an asset that can be acquired by using the Cubs' most abundant asset, cash. They need to be willing to overpay a little to turn their cash asset into a player.

 

I understand that by trading Garza, an asset, you can get more assets (prospects). I guess I don't have a problem trading him as long as the package they get in return is equal to or greater in value then what the Cubs gave up to acquire him just last year.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I think I tend to agree with Davell's approach. And it might be more what Theo and company move toward. Theo has talked specifically about a team needing as many assets as possible. Ofcourse you could switch Arizona with Texas for the Garza trade partner. Point is though. The "tread water" in 2012 might be the best approach long term. If you can get some really good top 10 prospects for Garza, in addition to the 2 extra early picks from the Ramirez and Pena arb, spend big money on Soler while you still can, and add a few buy low guys with POSSIBLE big potential like Stewart. (I cap'd that word so no one confuses me thinking he's an immediate all-star). .

 

Then in one year, Theo and company have greatly increased this teams assets. Is signing someone like Fielder to a huge contract an immediate satisfaction? yes. And I still wouldn't be unhappy if they did. It's just that, this team needs assets and they need them bad. I think the direction of 2012 will hinge greatly on if they trade Garza or not. Do they keep him, and spend what little assets they have to add another pitcher to compete next year? Or do they trade Garza now when his value is probably at his absolute highest and sacrafice just a little bit of short term, for an almost immediate fix to this teams terrible lacking of assets.

 

I agree that the Cubs don't have a lot of assets, in terms of players. Their most available asset is the idle cash that they have sitting on the sidelines. Fielder is an asset that can be acquired by using the Cubs' most abundant asset, cash. They need to be willing to overpay a little to turn their cash asset into a player.

 

I understand that by trading Garza, an asset, you can get more assets (prospects). I guess I don't have a problem trading him as long as the package they get in return is equal to or greater in value then what the Cubs gave up to acquire him just last year.

 

As far as the idle cash goes, I just don't get how one minute we're serious about Pujols, Fielder, Darvish, and Cespedes and the next minute we don't have the cash to do anything big. It could be Theos MO, but there has been talk within the media, for what they're worth about the Cubs not having much available cash despite all that is coming off the books in the next 2 years, and while many don't believe it or don't want to believe it, including myself but theres also a part of me with the where there's smoke there's fire talk. I simply can't understand how a big market team with so much money off the books and more to come wouldn't be able to moneterily compete with the Angels and Rangers, especially when Ricketts even said that Theo and Co. have free reighn. Also, if they were to make a splash this would be the time because as far as offense goes, I can't imagine a bigger splash than Fielder, both literally and figuratively. I can imagine wanting to wait on pitching to see who actually makes it to free agency next year and worse case scenerio we have the same rotation we started 2011 with.

[jersey cubs fan]

As far as the idle cash goes, I just don't get how one minute we're serious about Pujols, Fielder, Darvish, and Cespedes and the next minute we don't have the cash to do anything big.

 

Because the media doesn't know anything, and they know even less about what Theo is going to do.

[Little Slide Rooter]

As far as the idle cash goes, I just don't get how one minute we're serious about Pujols, Fielder, Darvish, and Cespedes and the next minute we don't have the cash to do anything big.

 

Because the media doesn't know anything, and they know even less about what Theo is going to do.

 

But when we're in on the Fielder and Pujols bidding they're wise and all knowing. While the media may act like they know more than they do, they likely know more than us. What they often do is take a tidbit of info and blow it up to seem better or worse than it is to get the reader to want to read the article. However, where there's smoke there's sometimes fire. My guess is that we do have spending money but not as much as we have in the past. We are interested in guys like Fielder, Darvish, Cespedes, and Solar but if the bidding gets out of hand we'll now out and find other ways to improve the team in a long term sense. They may not be as flashy as Pujols, Fielder, or Darvish but as excited as everyone was to put this front office together, it's stupid to turn on them just because we were unable to land a big fish this off season which many people, experts or otherwise didn't expect to happen.

[pccubfan]

As far as the idle cash goes, I just don't get how one minute we're serious about Pujols, Fielder, Darvish, and Cespedes and the next minute we don't have the cash to do anything big.

 

Because the media doesn't know anything, and they know even less about what Theo is going to do.

 

But when we're in on the Fielder and Pujols bidding they're wise and all knowing. While the media may act like they know more than they do, they likely know more than us. What they often do is take a tidbit of info and blow it up to seem better or worse than it is to get the reader to want to read the article. However, where there's smoke there's sometimes fire. My guess is that we do have spending money but not as much as we have in the past. We are interested in guys like Fielder, Darvish, Cespedes, and Solar but if the bidding gets out of hand we'll now out and find other ways to improve the team in a long term sense. They may not be as flashy as Pujols, Fielder, or Darvish but as excited as everyone was to put this front office together, it's stupid to turn on them just because we were unable to land a big fish this off season which many people, experts or otherwise didn't expect to happen.

 

It will be a tall order improving this team quickly without a FA signing. The Cubs just don't have many assets available for trade so they are probably not going to be able to make a significant acquisition without taking a significant hit. If the Cubs don't make a big splash with a free agent this offseason, punting 2012 and selling Garza probably is the way to go.

[biittner77]

I find it hard to believe that the Cubs would punt this year. If all they did the rest of the offseason was sign Fielder they would have a chance to compete in a division where their main rivals both just lost their best player (arguable in the case of the Brewers though losing Fielder certainly has to hurt)

 

Whatever package people think they can get for Garza will still be there at the deadline and should probably be at least slightly better. Same goes for Soto and Marmol.

 

It's all well and good to restock the farm system but they still have to sell tickets and they aren't going to when they are once again going into a season where no one seriously expects them to be any good. If they were going to try and market a new look, young guns, type team they probably would have already started that by now.

[jersey cubs fan]

they still have to sell tickets and they aren't going to when they are once again going into a season where no one seriously expects them to be any good. If they were going to try and market a new look, young guns, type team they probably would have already started that by now.

 

 

There was probably enough excitement over the overhaul to drive ticket sales this February without a huge improvement to the team.