Dempster

[Exile on Waveland]

Yeah, it's not like you're picking eight random bad starts out over the course of the season. That would be specious. Dempster's bad starts are more relevant because they (almost) all occured at the very beginning of the season. After that, Dempster pitched similarly to his previous performance as a Cub. That at least supports an inference that perhaps April was an aberration. Maybe it wasn't; but there is evidence to support that conclusion beyond mere Cubbie-blue colored glasses.

[Guest]

Yeah, it's not like you're picking nine random bad starts out over the course of the season. That would be specious. Dempster's bad starts are more relevant because they (almost) all occured at the very beginning of the season. After that, Dempster pitched similarly to his previous performance as a Cub. That at least supports an inference that perhaps April was an aberration. Maybe it wasn't; but there is evidence to support that conclusion beyond mere Cubbie-blue colored glasses.

On the one hand, it's the second time in three years that he's started slowly. It may be something that he has to change his offseason routines as he's getting older in order to perform well at the start of the year.

 

On the other...he had a slightly higher than normal (for him) walk rate in April, but what really drove the ERA up was an otherworldly 9 hr allowed in the month. He's extremely unlikely to have that kind of luck on HR/FB in 2012.

 

Getting back to the main point, I like Dempster and I won't be at all unhappy if he's on the team next year. I'd much rather find a way to dump $15M of Z's salary and use that money to get a front of the rotation starter. But if we want to sign Pujols, make additional adjustments AND add a front of the rotation guy, I think we've got to consider moving away from Dempster as an option.

[CubColtPacer]

It's hard to say with Dempster. On one hand, he got hit harder last season which is a worrying sign. LD percentage jumped up, BABIP jumped up with it, swinging strike percentage was the lowest of his career. Could that be a sign of declining stuff? Maybe.

 

At the same time, all the traditional peripherals didn't decline. K/BB rate, HR rate, HR/FB were very close to what they had been in previous years. That's why his FIP was actually better than 2010 and his xFIP has been remarkably consistent for 4 years straight (3.69, 3.76, 3.74, 3.70).

 

So his run last year could be the first sign of trouble and his peripherals could collapse next year, or his peripherals that would suggest he was unlucky could level out and his ERA would return to the high 3's. Hard to say which.

[17 Seconds]

Yeah, it's not like you're picking eight random bad starts out over the course of the season. That would be specious. Dempster's bad starts are more relevant because they (almost) all occured at the very beginning of the season. After that, Dempster pitched similarly to his previous performance as a Cub. That at least supports an inference that perhaps April was an aberration. Maybe it wasn't; but there is evidence to support that conclusion beyond mere Cubbie-blue colored glasses.

 

Dempster's last 8 starts-

 

48 IP, 55H , 26 BB, 44 K, 5.44

 

I hope he picks up his option (mainly because we already have enough space to get Pujols or Fielder and there isn't really anyything else I'd want the Cubs to spend significant money on this offseason), but it definitely wasn't just April. He sucked pretty bad for the last portion of the season too.

[Guest]

"ERA after 95 pitches" sounds like an amazing stat

Just spitballing here.

 

WHIP after 90 would probably be more accurate.

[MWV]

>95 pitches (25 occasions, 21.2 IP, 103 BF):

ERA: 4.15

WHIP: 1.71

BABIP: .357

K/BB: 2.31

K/9: 12.5

.273/.369/.466/.835

 

<95 pitches:

ERA: 4.88

WHIP: 1.42

BABIP: .327

K/BB: 2.33

K/9: 8.0

.271/.343/.445/.788

[Guest]

>95 pitches (25 occasions, 21.2 IP, 103 BF):

ERA: 4.15

WHIP: 1.71

BABIP: .357

K/BB: 2.31

K/9: 12.5

.273/.369/.466/.835

 

ERA: 4.88

WHIP: 1.42

BABIP: .327

K/BB: 2.33

K/9: 8.0

.271/.343/.445/.788

You've got a selection problem going on. The times he threw less than 95 pitchers were generally the games he wasn't pitching very well.

[MWV]

>95 pitches (25 occasions, 21.2 IP, 103 BF):

ERA: 4.15

WHIP: 1.71

BABIP: .357

K/BB: 2.31

K/9: 12.5

.273/.369/.466/.835

 

<95 pitches:

ERA: 4.88

WHIP: 1.42

BABIP: .327

K/BB: 2.33

K/9: 8.0

.271/.343/.445/.788

You've got a selection problem going on. The times he threw less than 95 pitchers were generally the games he wasn't pitching very well.

I'm including all pitches 1-94 from every game, not just games in which he threw less than 95 total. Looking at just the games in which he threw 95+ and breaking them down into 1-94 and 95+ might be interesting. I don't have time for that right now, unfortunately.

[Guest]

>95 pitches (25 occasions, 21.2 IP, 103 BF):

ERA: 4.15

WHIP: 1.71

BABIP: .357

K/BB: 2.31

K/9: 12.5

.273/.369/.466/.835

 

ERA: 4.88

WHIP: 1.42

BABIP: .327

K/BB: 2.33

K/9: 8.0

.271/.343/.445/.788

You've got a selection problem going on. The times he threw less than 95 pitchers were generally the games he wasn't pitching very well.

I'm including all pitches 1-94 from every game, not just games in which he threw less than 95 total. Looking at just the games in which he threw 95+ and breaking them down into 1-94 and 95+ might be interesting. I don't have time for that right now, unfortunately.

OPS against by pitch count:

 

25-50: .592

50-75: .754

75-100: .812

100+: .911

 

 

however,

 

2011: 1-25: .975

2010: 1-25: .897 (no other grouping higher than .723)

 

The pattern doesn't go back further than that. I'm not sure if he needs to adjust his pregame routine as he gets older, or if this is just randomness in the data. Definitely interesting, though.

[Guest]

http://twitter.com/#!/cst_cubs/status/130335887887314946

 

@cst_cubs As expected, Dempster exercises 2012 option to stay. Team informed today.

[Guest]

http://twitter.com/#!/cst_cubs/status/130335887887314946

 

@cst_cubs As expected, Dempster exercises 2012 option to stay. Team informed today.

So my question is moot now.

 

I hope Ryan has better luck in 2012.

[GvilleCub]

BOO! What a trick on the eve of Halloween. I was hoping that Dumpster would end up being the compensation for Theo. Maybe it can still happen... This is the worst news since Ryan "the Weasel" Theriot backed into a World Series Ring.

[Rob]

http://twitter.com/#!/cst_cubs/status/130335887887314946

 

@cst_cubs As expected, Dempster exercises 2012 option to stay. Team informed today.

So my question is moot now.

 

I hope Ryan has better luck in 2012.

 

I'll be honest, even though the Cubs were probably better off if he were to turn down his option I'm kinda glad to have him back. He's a really nice guy and is probably gonna be paid about what he's worth, so it's not like he's some huge drain on us.

[Guest]

http://twitter.com/#!/cst_cubs/status/130335887887314946

 

@cst_cubs As expected, Dempster exercises 2012 option to stay. Team informed today.

So my question is moot now.

 

I hope Ryan has better luck in 2012.

 

I'll be honest, even though the Cubs were probably better off if he were to turn down his option I'm kinda glad to have him back. He's a really nice guy and is probably gonna be paid about what he's worth, so it's not like he's some huge drain on us.

I'm certainly not upset that he is back. He could easily bounce back to be a quality 2/3 starter. He is also one of the leaders on the team, so, yeah.

 

Could be a lot worse.