Trade with the Braves

[TruffleShuffle]

the braves have great pitching depth. here's their current rotation when people are healthy, along with their contract situations:

 

derek lowe, age 38, 4.89 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 6.3 K/9 IP, due $15m in 2012 and is a free agent after that

tim hudson, age 35, 3.18 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 6.5 K/9 IP, $9m in a 2012 and a $9m team option for 2013

jair jurrjens, age 25, 2.63 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 5.7 K/9 IP, made about $3m this year and came into 2011 with just over 3 years service time

tommy hanson, age 24, 3.60 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 9.8 K/9 IP, only 1.1 years service time coming into 2011

brandon beachy, age 24, 3.43 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 9.5 K/9 IP, is a rookie this year.

 

in addition, they have at the high minors:

julio teheran, age 20, 2.18 ERA in AAA, 1.12 WHIP, 109 K in 123 IP (made two spot starts for ATL - 8.2 ip, 10 h, 5 er, 4 bb, 2 k)

mike minor, age 23. in AAA - 3.13 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 99 K in 100 IP (in ATL - 8 starts, 4.84 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 7.5 K/9 IP)

randall delgado, age 21. combined stats between AA and AAA - 3.45 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 125 K in 130 IP

arodys vizcaino, age 20. combined stats between AA and AAA - 3.06 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 100 K in 97 IP. pitched in the bullpen with gwinnett and now is pitching in atlanta's bullpen.

 

that's five starters, all of whom besides lowe have been very effective this year, and all of them except for lowe are under team control past 2012 (assuming that hudson is healthy, his option seems like a no-brainer). then they have four highly-rated prospects in the high minors, with most of those guys ready or almost ready to pitch in the majors.

 

the cubs need pitching... young pitching ideally. is there room for a trade here? do the cubs have anything the braves would want that would cause them to give up one of their good young arms? what about a prospect-for-prospect trade like the garza for delmon young deal? the braves' outfield has been lousy this year and they have needs at LF and CF... would a brett jackson swap make sense?

[Tryptamine]

I've been a proponent of Byrd for Minor for a while now. Minor isn't nearly as valued as Vizcaino or Teheran and it's questionable whether or not he's valued over Delgado. At this point I think he's probably trade bait for the Braves.

[Guest]

Part of the problem is that the Cubs need outfielders too. The Cubs do have a player that may have more value to other teams than he does to the Cubs, and fortunately Atlanta could use someone at that position. The question becomes then, can Barney bring back one of the Braves starters?

[toonsterwu]

I've been a proponent of Byrd for Minor for a while now. Minor isn't nearly as valued as Vizcaino or Teheran and it's questionable whether or not he's valued over Delgado. At this point I think he's probably trade bait for the Braves.

 

If I'm the Braves, there's no chance in heck that I deal Mike Minor for Marlon Byrd. A potential cost-controlled mid-rotation lefty starter for Byrd?

 

There's also growing concerns that perhaps Delgado and Vizcaino could both end up in the pen. I actually like Vizcaino as a starter.

[toonsterwu]

Part of the problem is that the Cubs need outfielders too. The Cubs do have a player that may have more value to other teams than he does to the Cubs, and fortunately Atlanta could use someone at that position. The question becomes then, can Barney bring back one of the Braves starters?

 

Braves need Darwin Barney? And I'd be a tad surprised if Barney could have enough value to bring back a key starter.

 

I'm not saying they wouldn't have interest in Barney, but Barney doesn't feel like the type of guy any team really NEEDS to have interest in/use. More importantly, they have a utility infielder in AAA (Diory Hernandez), a possible shortstop option in Tyler Pastornicky in AAA, along with a bevy of shortstop options in the lower levels. Pastornicky is close to ready, so I could see them bringing in a veteran to compete with Pastornicky in 2012.

[TruffleShuffle]

I've been a proponent of Byrd for Minor for a while now. Minor isn't nearly as valued as Vizcaino or Teheran and it's questionable whether or not he's valued over Delgado. At this point I think he's probably trade bait for the Braves.

 

If I'm the Braves, there's no chance in heck that I deal Mike Minor for Marlon Byrd. A potential cost-controlled mid-rotation lefty starter for Byrd?

 

There's also growing concerns that perhaps Delgado and Vizcaino could both end up in the pen. I actually like Vizcaino as a starter.

 

they could end up in the pen because the braves have more SP than they know what to do with.

 

vizcaino was an obvious choice to move to the bullpen short term because his fastball approaches 100 mph and he also has a good, but inconsistent, curve. his changeup is still a work in progress. but there's no doubting his arm.

 

delgado is less likely to be a front-of-the-rotation guy, but he's probably more polished than vizcaino. i'd be perfectly happy to take either one of them.

[toonsterwu]

the braves have great pitching depth. here's their current rotation when people are healthy, along with their contract situations:

 

derek lowe, age 38, 4.89 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 6.3 K/9 IP, due $15m in 2012 and is a free agent after that

tim hudson, age 35, 3.18 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 6.5 K/9 IP, $9m in a 2012 and a $9m team option for 2013

jair jurrjens, age 25, 2.63 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 5.7 K/9 IP, made about $3m this year and came into 2011 with just over 3 years service time

tommy hanson, age 24, 3.60 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 9.8 K/9 IP, only 1.1 years service time coming into 2011

brandon beachy, age 24, 3.43 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 9.5 K/9 IP, is a rookie this year.

 

in addition, they have at the high minors:

julio teheran, age 20, 2.18 ERA in AAA, 1.12 WHIP, 109 K in 123 IP (made two spot starts for ATL - 8.2 ip, 10 h, 5 er, 4 bb, 2 k)

mike minor, age 23. in AAA - 3.13 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 99 K in 100 IP (in ATL - 8 starts, 4.84 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 7.5 K/9 IP)

randall delgado, age 21. combined stats between AA and AAA - 3.45 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 125 K in 130 IP

arodys vizcaino, age 20. combined stats between AA and AAA - 3.06 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 100 K in 97 IP. pitched in the bullpen with gwinnett and now is pitching in atlanta's bullpen.

 

that's five starters, all of whom besides lowe have been very effective this year, and all of them except for lowe are under team control past 2012 (assuming that hudson is healthy, his option seems like a no-brainer). then they have four highly-rated prospects in the high minors, with most of those guys ready or almost ready to pitch in the majors.

 

the cubs need pitching... young pitching ideally. is there room for a trade here? do the cubs have anything the braves would want that would cause them to give up one of their good young arms? what about a prospect-for-prospect trade like the garza for delmon young deal? the braves' outfield has been lousy this year and they have needs at LF and CF... would a brett jackson swap make sense?

 

A) I'm not sure the Cubs organization is in the right situation to deal away a Brett Jackson for one of those arms. I'm not sure the organization is in a place where we can gamble away a possible everyday, above average starting CF that's cost-controlled. I'm not sure we have another upper level positional asset that would interest them in making such a deal. Teheran isn't going anywhere, and there's some concerns that Delgado and Vizcaino could both be headed for long term pen duty. I might have interest in a Brett Jackson for a Mike Minor type of swap, depending on what others moves were made and if we could get something tagged onto a deal.

 

B) I think most guesses are that the Braves would like to deal Lowe if possible, and slot open a spot for Teheran, and ponder a Jurrjens swap to create a spot for Minor. I don't think they are pressed to make a Jurrjens deal/create a spot for Minor. I'd have some interest in Jurrjens for the right price (definitely wouldn't even ponder BJax on that one), but my guess is that they'll want to trade Jurrjens for a good return, with the idea that he's got, I think, 2 more cost-controlled years, and is a proven starting pitcher in the bigs that has had a solid workload. Those guys tend to go for higher than desired returns, even if their ability doesn't match up with the perception of their value.

 

C) One thing I'm not totally against - pursuing Derek Lowe to stopgap for a year. Now, only way I'd consider that is if they ate a huge chunk of money (or took back enough salary to balance things out), and didn't give up a top prospect. I do wonder if the Braves would consider it provided they didn't have to eat the entire 15 million. That would offer them some flexibility and give Teheran/Minor a chance. If we get Lowe cheap enough, that could still allow the org to pursue another starter and still have enough money to ponder some upgrades in the field. That said, the danger of such a move is that they would view Lowe as perhaps a capable 2/3 starter and not pursue another solid starter.

Edited August 15, 2011 by toonsterwu

[toonsterwu]

Off the top, I think there's some mechanical concerns with Randall Delgado that has some folks thinking he'd be better off in the pen. I'll double check that.

 

Edit: Quick glance and can't find anything online about it. I know there's some concern with Delgado that has people thinking he's better off in the pen. Can't think of what it is right now.

Edited August 15, 2011 by toonsterwu

[Clem Fandango]

Maybe I've got rose colored glasses on, but I don't want to see Brett Jackson traded. To me, I think he's the most excited I've been about a position player coming through the Cubs system, even more so than Castro. He can hit for power, average, has great plate discipline, plays good defense, has good speed. He's the closest thing we've had to a 5-tool player since Corey Patterson came up through the system. Maybe I'm in the minority, but I wouldn't trade Brett Jackson, at least not yet.

 

Chipper has to be on his last legs. If he plays again it can't be for much more than one more year. Would Vitters be an enticing trade target for them? His plate patience is crap and I'm not sure how his defense is coming along, but regardless of his results so far, he still knows how to hit and scouts have always said his lack of plate patience is largely due to his ability to hit damn near anything. He's still only 21, surely his upside would have long term appeal to a team about to lose the cornerstone of their franchise, yeah?

[TruffleShuffle]

Part of the problem is that the Cubs need outfielders too. The Cubs do have a player that may have more value to other teams than he does to the Cubs, and fortunately Atlanta could use someone at that position. The question becomes then, can Barney bring back one of the Braves starters?

 

i can't imagine he would... he just doesn't hit enough. he's good defensively but i doubt you'd find enough teams who will value that highly enough, or at least would be willing to admit valuing it during trade negotiations.

 

i do think that if the cubs were to work out a trade for one of the braves' young starters, the cubs would have to deal from positions where they have depth. Lord knows the cubs don't have many of them, but a few that come to mind are CF (byrd, jackson, szczur, maybe ha, easterling, silva), catcher (soto, castillo, clevinger) and middle infield (castro, barney, gonzalez, flaherty, lemahieu, etc). problem is, the braves don't have any use for a 2B or a C, so really we'd be looking at dealing them a CF (jackson or byrd) or a SS/3B (is chipper still retiring after this year?). they couldn't possibly value someone like flaherty enough to deal him for minor or delgado.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

I've been a proponent of Byrd for Minor for a while now. Minor isn't nearly as valued as Vizcaino or Teheran and it's questionable whether or not he's valued over Delgado. At this point I think he's probably trade bait for the Braves.

 

The Braves wouldn't touch that deal IMO. People have been underestimating Minor's talent for a while now, but an orginzation that knows pitching as well as the Braves won't give him up for a older mid tier OF.

 

That would be great if t could happen though...and I suppose it's a little possible. Consider that he's the only lefty of their current crop and that he's a lefty with good stuff. I like him better than everyone not named Hanson there, and those are some big prospect names I'm skipping...

[Tracer Bullet]

it's all leo mazzone.

[toonsterwu]

Maybe I've got rose colored glasses on, but I don't want to see Brett Jackson traded. To me, I think he's the most excited I've been about a position player coming through the Cubs system, even more so than Castro. He can hit for power, average, has great plate discipline, plays good defense, has good speed. He's the closest thing we've had to a 5-tool player since Corey Patterson came up through the system. Maybe I'm in the minority, but I wouldn't trade Brett Jackson, at least not yet.

 

Chipper has to be on his last legs. If he plays again it can't be for much more than one more year. Would Vitters be an enticing trade target for them? His plate patience is crap and I'm not sure how his defense is coming along, but regardless of his results so far, he still knows how to hit and scouts have always said his lack of plate patience is largely due to his ability to hit damn near anything. He's still only 21, surely his upside would have long term appeal to a team about to lose the cornerstone of their franchise, yeah?

 

They've got some guys in the system that they would probably prefer ahead of Vitters as options for 3rd baseman of the future. In the interim, Prado would get more time at 3rd (probably) if Chipper retired. I'd guess they might have interest in Vitters, but more as a 2nd/3rd chip in a trade.

[Little Slide Rooter]

If Brett were traded, we'd probably be looking at a 2012 OF of Sori, Byrd, Colvin. I guess if were patient for another few years, Szczur or Ha should be ready to go. If Colvin falters, there are always stop gaps to be acquired. So yeah, if we could get a top pitching prospect for Jackson, who by all accounts will end up a jack of all trades and a master of none, I'd be all for it.