The New Market Inefficiency?

[TruffleShuffle]

teams like the cubs, phillies, yankees, etc don't have the roster space to take on the AAAA all-stars and 2006 BA prospect handbook top 20, hoping that they can hack it.

we use it up on no-upside stiffs like Koyie Hill, Montanez, Reed Johnson instead, and the Red Sox found spots for Saltalamacchia, Andrew Miller, Rocco Baldelli, Rich Hill, Matt Albers, Franklin Morales, Jeremy Hermida on their roster

 

but what the [expletive] do they know?

 

saltalamacchia is the only one of those players who has made much of an impact, and even he owes a lot of thanks to fenway and babip. they also have bobby jenks, who has been God-awful.

 

i agree that it's better to give AAA spots to guys like hermida or baldelli than turds like montanez, but realistically you're just not going to have a "breakthrough" (many would say fluke) like melky cabrera because the cubs aren't going to have playing time set aside for a guy who has been a busted prospect for 3 years.

[sneakypower]

so put them in AAA and let them force the issue. right now we've got 60 games left to play and several lame ducks; try swinging a deal for somebody who fits that mold and give them a couple months. it'd be inexcusable for Baker, DeWitt, Hill, Johnson to get significant playing time from this point forth

[TruffleShuffle]

doesn't dewitt fit the profile of the guys you're talking about? a formerly highly-rated prospect who isn't too far along from being labelled a bust?

[sneakypower]

not really, since he has no apparent skills remaining; even when we had acquired him, he had already proven to be a dismal defensive player at 2B and he had shown no semblance of a power swing in 5 years, so what could you have put his upside at? Alberto Callaspo? with Stewart, for example, he's given indications he can be a capable fielder at 3rd and can be a good to very good hitter when not besieged by babip woes. he has enough tangible upside to make the risk well worthwhile

 

common sense obviously plays a part; it's not like scanning through old prospect lists and saying "hey lookie here, let's sign Nick Adenhart!"

 

and btw, i love the idea that Ryan Webb and Edward Mujica are irreplaceable firemen while Matt Albers and Franklin Morales are non-contributors

Edited July 26, 2011 by sneakypower

[TruffleShuffle]

right because impact player and non-contributor are exactly the same thing.

[sneakypower]

talking about impact, Albers, Morales, Miller, Hill all have had a better WPA for the Red Sox than Saltalamacchia

 

but this meaningless semantical tangent obfuscates my easily understood point

[Little Slide Rooter]

teams like the cubs, phillies, yankees, etc don't have the roster space to take on the AAAA all-stars and 2006 BA prospect handbook top 20, hoping that they can hack it.

we use it up on no-upside stiffs like Koyie Hill, Montanez, Reed Johnson instead, and the Red Sox found spots for Saltalamacchia, Andrew Miller, Rocco Baldelli, Rich Hill, Matt Albers, Franklin Morales, Jeremy Hermida on their roster

 

but what the [expletive] do they know?

 

We simply havent had room for them on our roster. Weve gone through Diamond, as well as John Ford-Griffin and Brian LaHair, both of whom were one time fairly highly touted prospects, as well as picking up of own past busts in Lou Montanez and Jason DuBois. Its one thing to pick these guys up, but another to offer them full playing time, which is what you really need to do to get the most out of these guys. Of course theres also the chance, probably a bigger chance that the player will continue to be a bust rather than blossom into a star, so unless your simply out of contention, most teams dont want to risk making someone like that an everyday player. This being said, we are out of contention, so maybe LaHair and Montanez will get a chance once the deadline passes and Fukudome and Pena have found new homes.

[TruffleShuffle]

hill and morales have combined for 20 innings this year.

 

 

i'm not quite sure why you've got your panties in such a bunch, considering that i mostly agreed with your points. what i wasn't clear about was how one is to know that thoroughly useless players like melky cabrera and jeff francoeur will become good for a year, while sean burroughs and andy laroche will continue to suck. or even a guy like albers, who had been pitching in the major leagues for 5 years with poor success and lousy peripherals, would turn into a good relief pitcher. he was never even that great a prospect for houston. i guess i'm just not clear on why we should give the red sox a lot of credit for albers when he doesn't seem far from the type of guy you're saying the cubs shouldn't be keeping around.

[TruffleShuffle]

We simply havent had room for them on our roster. Weve gone through Diamond, as well as John Ford-Griffin and Brian LaHair, both of whom were one time fairly highly touted prospects,

 

dude enough with the [expletive] lahair, he was never a highly touted prospect. he made it to #16 on the shitty mariners' top 30 list.

[Sammy Sofa]

We simply havent had room for them on our roster. Weve gone through Diamond, as well as John Ford-Griffin and Brian LaHair, both of whom were one time fairly highly touted prospects,

 

dude enough with the [expletive] lahair, he was never a highly touted prospect. he made it to #16 on the [expletive] mariners' top 30 list.

 

I like that he slipped DuBois in there, too.

[sneakypower]

what i wasn't clear about was how one is to know that thoroughly useless players like melky cabrera and jeff francoeur will become good for a year, while sean burroughs and andy laroche will continue to suck. or even a guy like albers, who had been pitching in the major leagues for 5 years with poor success and lousy peripherals, would turn into a good relief pitcher. he was never even that great a prospect for houston. i guess i'm just not clear on why we should give the red sox a lot of credit for albers when he doesn't seem far from the type of guy you're saying the cubs shouldn't be keeping around.

Albers was an example of big budget teams being able to find roster space for reclamation projects, nothing more

 

I still hate the Burroughs example because he's atypical in that he'd been out of baseball for 3 years (and without the rare immense physical gifts of Josh Hamilton), but as an Arizona fan in a lesser-of-two-evils thing, I guess I'd still prefer them giving him ABs to Mora, Bloomquist or Nady

 

Melky Cabrera had played at an above-average level for four years (at ages 21-24 no less) with the Yankees previous to his disaster with Atlanta last year, which has to be attributed to injury or some other extenuating factor given how anomalous his defense was that season

 

Francoeur also showed enough skills - great defense, throwing arm, good power - so where all he needed was neutral luck with batted balls to make him a useful player. he's gotten that this year: babip and hr/fb right in line with his career averages

 

Andy Laroche isn't currently worthy of holding out a lot of hope, due to his extreme GB tendencies, but you could do worse than letting your AAA hitting instructor experiment with his swing

[TruffleShuffle]

Melky Cabrera had played at an above-average level for four years (at ages 21-24 no less) with the Yankees previous to his disaster with Atlanta last year

 

this can't possibly be true. his wOBA was .317 in 2007 and .285 in 2008.

[SouthSideRyan]

You lost me at Francouer.

[sneakypower]

Melky Cabrera had played at an above-average level for four years (at ages 21-24 no less) with the Yankees previous to his disaster with Atlanta last year

 

this can't possibly be true. his wOBA was .317 in 2007 and .285 in 2008.

his overall wOBA was .327 for those four years (side note: i don't think FG incorporates ROE into their wOBA calculation, which is a mistake)

[davearm2]

I've seen Lou Montanez listed as one of the guys the Cubs take instead.

 

Which ignores that he fits the mold laid out in the OP pretty darn well (once highly-rated flameout that's still relatively young).

 

So in the end it's all hindsight.

[sneakypower]

Montanez was "highly rated" back when Alfonso Soriano was a prospect

 

good lord, i did not think it necessary to need to qualify my statement for idiots incapable of using common sense

[CubColtPacer]

I've seen Lou Montanez listed as one of the guys the Cubs take instead.

 

Which ignores that he fits the mold laid out in the OP pretty darn well (once highly-rated flameout that's still relatively young).

 

So in the end it's all hindsight.

 

I don't think Montanez fits the original point. Sneaky doesn't want to give chances to any player who was ever drafted high. He wants players who had minor league success who were top prospects before they hit the majors and struggled. Montanez didn't hit in the minors until he was old for the leagues he was playing in, and he had to switch from one of the positions that doesn't have much offense (SS) to one of the positions that requires close to the most offense (corner OF). That's not the same type of player as a guy like Maybin whatsoever.

[KingCubsFan]

Not sure why the focus is on a guy with 55 at bats who lived in a trash can last year and Melky Cabrera. There's obviously some risk (and luck) involved, but smart teams who identify the right type of player have been able to get a ton of value out of this practice. Even the Cubs have had success, but they don't do it enough. Through the years, there's been some really good players who failed in their first organization and revived their careers (some of these guys had more success than others in their first organization):

Carlos Pena

Paul Konerko

Kelley Johnson

Carlos Quentin

Bobby Jenks

Matt Thornton

Travis Hafner

Adrian Gonzalez

David Ortiz

Jon Rauch

Joe Nathan

Ryan Ludwick

Jayson Werth

 

Sure, the Cubs have a lot of money, but they're not the Yankees. They need to plug holes with cheap production, and this is one of the best ways to do it, particularly when your minor league system isn't producing impact offensive talent.

[SouthSideRyan]

Ok, but Jeff Francouer was replacement level over the past 3 seasons while playing nearly every damn day and his approach has sucked from the word go.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Not sure why the focus is on a guy with 55 at bats who lived in a trash can last year and Melky Cabrera. There's obviously some risk (and luck) involved, but smart teams who identify the right type of player have been able to get a ton of value out of this practice. Even the Cubs have had success, but they don't do it enough. Through the years, there's been some really good players who failed in their first organization and revived their careers (some of these guys had more success than others in their first organization):

Carlos Pena

Paul Konerko

Kelley Johnson

Carlos Quentin

Bobby Jenks

Matt Thornton

Travis Hafner

Adrian Gonzalez

David Ortiz

Jon Rauch

Joe Nathan

Ryan Ludwick

Jayson Werth

 

Sure, the Cubs have a lot of money, but they're not the Yankees. They need to plug holes with cheap production, and this is one of the best ways to do it, particularly when your minor league system isn't producing impact offensive talent.

 

You make it sound as though all you need to do is go out and get a failed prospect, and PRESTO, hole filled. Lets go jump on Jeff Clement, Andy Laroche, and Matt Bush and we'll be good. I do agree that its a good idea to try and aquire these kinds of guys when they become available, but you cant count on them being anything more than role players or AAAA guys. Im sure for every one of the guys on your list, there are plenty more who another team has auditoned and they never made it off the bench or AAA.

[Rob]

I'd be all about trying to snag Matt Bush. That strikeout rate is legit.

[Tracer Bullet]

Not sure why the focus is on a guy with 55 at bats who lived in a trash can last year and Melky Cabrera. There's obviously some risk (and luck) involved, but smart teams who identify the right type of player have been able to get a ton of value out of this practice. Even the Cubs have had success, but they don't do it enough. Through the years, there's been some really good players who failed in their first organization and revived their careers (some of these guys had more success than others in their first organization):

Carlos Pena

Paul Konerko

Kelley Johnson

Carlos Quentin

Bobby Jenks

Matt Thornton

Travis Hafner

Adrian Gonzalez

David Ortiz

Jon Rauch

Joe Nathan

Ryan Ludwick

Jayson Werth

 

Sure, the Cubs have a lot of money, but they're not the Yankees. They need to plug holes with cheap production, and this is one of the best ways to do it, particularly when your minor league system isn't producing impact offensive talent.

 

You make it sound as though all you need to do is go out and get a failed prospect, and PRESTO, hole filled. Lets go jump on Jeff Clement, Andy Laroche, and Matt Bush and we'll be good. I do agree that its a good idea to try and aquire these kinds of guys when they become available, but you cant count on them being anything more than role players or AAAA guys. Im sure for every one of the guys on your list, there are plenty more who another team has auditoned and they never made it off the bench or AAA.

 

is your plan to just name 3-5 names in every post in this thread?

[Guest]

I think the OP is an interesting idea, but it isn't fully developed yet. The key addition required, imo, is how to discern the players that are good risks from the ones that are likely to disappoint.

 

For a couple examples from our own history, Choi & Patterson were both highly touted prospects who had high levels of success in the minors (only before AAA for Corey, though). They each had some level of success in the majors before sliding down towards replacement level at their positions. They would have fit this profile very well - and in fact both got multiple chances with various teams after the Cubs and Corey is still playing today. However, neither one ever amounted to a great value with their new teams.

 

How do we spot the guys that are ready to break through to a new level of contribution from the ones that are simply going to continue to flounder in the next opportunity? That seems to be the crux of the issue.

[TruffleShuffle]

Not sure why the focus is on a guy with 55 at bats who lived in a trash can last year and Melky Cabrera. There's obviously some risk (and luck) involved, but smart teams who identify the right type of player have been able to get a ton of value out of this practice. Even the Cubs have had success, but they don't do it enough. Through the years, there's been some really good players who failed in their first organization and revived their careers (some of these guys had more success than others in their first organization):

Carlos Pena

Paul Konerko

Kelley Johnson

Carlos Quentin

Bobby Jenks

Matt Thornton

Travis Hafner

Adrian Gonzalez

David Ortiz

Jon Rauch

Joe Nathan

Ryan Ludwick

Jayson Werth

 

Sure, the Cubs have a lot of money, but they're not the Yankees. They need to plug holes with cheap production, and this is one of the best ways to do it, particularly when your minor league system isn't producing impact offensive talent.

 

there are a few names that have no business being on this list. konerko was traded twice - at age 21 and age 22 - once for the old "proven closer" (jeff shaw) and then the next time for mike cameron. the two years he was traded he was OPS'ing over 1.000 in AAA, so he certainly didn't flop for one organization before turning good for another org. hafner was inexplicably traded for einar diaz; at the time of the trade hafner was one of the better 1b prospects in baseball.

 

i would argue against gonzalez being on this list because he was still young when florida traded him for something of value (ugie urbina) and then by the time he was dealt to san diego for another player of value (chris young), he was raking in AAA and was blocked by teixeira.

 

david ortiz was still a solid hitter for minnesota, then his power/steroids blossomed with the red sox. but he wasn't a bust by any means.

 

and joe nathan was one of the better setup men in baseball the year before the giants traded him to the twins (and what a bad trade that was)

[sneakypower]

I think the OP is an interesting idea, but it isn't fully developed yet. The key addition required, imo, is how to discern the players that are good risks from the ones that are likely to disappoint.

 

For a couple examples from our own history, Choi & Patterson were both highly touted prospects who had high levels of success in the minors (only before AAA for Corey, though). They each had some level of success in the majors before sliding down towards replacement level at their positions. They would have fit this profile very well - and in fact both got multiple chances with various teams after the Cubs and Corey is still playing today. However, neither one ever amounted to a great value with their new teams.

 

How do we spot the guys that are ready to break through to a new level of contribution from the ones that are simply going to continue to flounder in the next opportunity? That seems to be the crux of the issue.

Patterson compiled 4.7 fWAR and Choi 2.5 (in just 784 PA) in their two seasons after leaving the Cubs; they were both great reclamation candidates, but Choi's concussion problems likely ruined him in the end

 

you also have to disqualify guys who have proven they don't have the requisite tools to succeed: like the DeWitt example, where we had known he couldn't defend at 2B or hit for any power to play 3B, or Clement, where he lost all value being moved off C