Dempster

[CubColtPacer]

Because his ERA was still so poor, I didn't realize how good Dempster has been for the last 2 1/2 months, especially with his peripherals.

 

Here's April:

 

31 IP, 42 H, 34 R, 33 ER, 9 HR, 16 BB, 29 K, 9.58 ERA, 8.41 K/9, 4.65 BB/9, 2.61 HR/9

 

Since April:

 

88 1/3 IP, 82 H, 31 R, 29 ER, 5 HR, 24 BB, 82 K, 2.95 ERA, 8.35 K/9, 2.45 BB/9, 0.51 HR/9

 

That's a wonderful stretch of baseball right there. His peripherals now for the season look to line up right with what he did in both 2009 and 2010. If he exercises that player option as he is expected to, there's no big evidence of decline anymore like there was earlier in the season with him. It probably wouldn't be unreasonable to expect another high 3's/maybe low 4's ERA out of him next season.

[SouthSideRyan]

I had no idea his April was that comically bad.

[17 Seconds]

i hated that contract at the time, but it ended up being pretty solid

[javy knows my name]

I had no idea his April was that comically bad.

 

Same. That HR/9 is just unreal.

[Guest]

I had no idea his April was that comically bad.

 

I had no idea he'd been doing that well since. I knew he had improved significantly but not to the point of a sub-3 ERA.

[CubColtPacer]

A Dempster quote from Fangraphs:

 

There are the struggling pitchers that every advanced metric still likes. Call Ryan Dempster the spokesperson for this group. His bad luck has been stupendous. A .331 BABIP, 67.3% LOB and 11.6% HR/FB have all conspired to keep this man’s ERA inflated. It’s nice to see that SIERA and FIP agree that he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in ball. He should have an ERA much closer to three than to five going forward. The only real peripheral that is down this year is his swinging strike rate, and at 9%, he’s still above average. Well, okay, his fastball velocity is down, but the fastball has long been his worst pitch. He can survive a half-mile-per-hour drop there.

 

There are multiple stats that would say that his peripherals are now the best of his career-even better than 2008. The chances of Dempster having a bounceback year next year are pretty high.

[kylescubs23]

His April was bad and then he had the start in Arizona where he gave uip 7 ER without getting an out to top it off. Outside of his start against last week, he's been really good since.

[toonsterwu]

I'd like to see the Cubs approach him this off-season to see if they can work out an extension of some sort. Nothing more than 3 years, but if they can bring about some savings next year and keep him around for some clubhouse stability, that would be a plus.