2012 Draft Discussion

[RammyFanny]

Who would you guys say has the better stuff between Sonny Gray and Stroman? Just curious as I was reading a mock that said Gray, though I kind of assumed Stroman before I read that if someone asked.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Actually like Stroman more than Gray. Very similar stuff but I'd say that Stroman commands his better. I'm a fan of both.

[Guest]

Who would you guys say has the better stuff between Sonny Gray and Stroman? Just curious as I was reading a mock that said Gray, though I kind of assumed Stroman before I read that if someone asked.

 

Stroman has better FB velocity. I think Gray's curve is better than Stroman's slider but I think they're very comparable as out pitches. Gray's change was more advanced.

[davell]

I've read a couple of places that the Royals don't like Appel for some reason. So, if Houston passes on him for Gausman, I honestly think he'll be sitting there at 6 for us. If Houston takes Buxton, my guess is the Twins take Appel or Zimmer at 2. Seattle seems like a lock for Zunino at 3 and my guess is unless Giolito is healthy, the O's take either Correa or Almora at 4. KC almost definitely takes one of the college pitchers, so it should be Gausman or Zimmer at 5. But, if Gausman goes 1st I think Appel is a Cub.

[El Duderino]

why would the O's pass on Appel?

[davell]

why would the O's pass on Appel?

I've read a couple of people that have mentioned them being extremely high on Correa and Almora. But yeah, they would be the team most likely to take him, if he doesn't go first.

[Guest]

What's the logic behind KC passing on Appel when they covet college SP?

[davell]

What's the logic behind KC passing on Appel when they covet college SP?

I'm actually basing that off of the guy who writes for Pinetarpress, that posts on PSD and has credibility. Not their main insider, but a guy they all listen to. He says KC just doesn't like Appel.

[CyHawk_Cub]

What's the logic behind KC passing on Appel when they covet college SP?

 

I've wondered the same. All I've seen are conclusory statements on a couple forums to the effect that KC just isn't as high on Appel as other organizations.

[Guest]

What's the logic behind KC passing on Appel when they covet college SP?

I'm actually basing that off of the guy who writes for Pinetarpress, that posts on PSD and has credibility. Not their main insider, but a guy they all listen to. He says KC just doesn't like Appel.

 

If that's true, I wonder what happens if Gausman and Zimmer are gone while Appel is available at 5.

[davell]

Pinetarpress is a Royals centric website, for what it's worth(not much). Nut if this guy talks to as many scouts as he says, I'd hope the Royals are the one team he actually has a good read on

[Guest]

Kevin Goldstein on Giolito last night on Twitter:

 

@Kevin_Goldstein Even MORE fascinating. RT @CBoulding: @Kevin_Goldstein Do you have a feel for where Giolito might go, or does the elbow make him a wildcard?

 

@Kevin_Goldstein It's very very complicated. Probably. RT @JShields165: @Kevin_Goldstein So you think Giolito will be on the board when the Pirates draft?

 

@Kevin_Goldstein I don't know. it's very complicated. Lots we don't know. RT @CBoulding: @Kevin_Goldstein ok then. gun to your head, who picks Giolito?

 

@Kevin_Goldstein I can make a good argument, right now, that Giolito should be the first pick in the draft.

 

@Kevin_Goldstein I can make a good argument, right now, that no team should take Giolito.

[davell]

Is he too big of a risk for us? If he makes it to us, I will have reservations about why he's there to begin with. On the other hand, even if he has to have TJS, it only sets him back a year and we'd still have 3 other early picks to see some dividends out of. I go back and forth on everything with this draft, but I think I'd take the risk here, no matter who else is on the board for us. Even if it meant waiting out a worst case scenario. I think the eventual payoff is just too big in his case.

[RammyFanny]

Is he too big of a risk for us? If he makes it to us, I will have reservations about why he's there to begin with. On the other hand, even if he has to have TJS, it only sets him back a year and we'd still have 3 other early picks to see some dividends out of. I go back and forth on everything with this draft, but I think I'd take the risk here, no matter who else is on the board for us. Even if it meant waiting out a worst case scenario. I think the eventual payoff is just too big in his case.

 

That's kind of where I am, though Correa would be tempting. But you have a potential #1 pick sitting there at #6, it could be huge even if you have to wait a bit.

[Guest]

Pitchers get hurt. WIth the #6 pick, I'd like to avoid someone we know has that issue. If he falls to a sandwich pick? Absolutely, even if signing him overslot hurts you in the rest of the Top 10 rounds. But not at #6

[Cubswin11]

What if "all" he needs is TJS to fix his problem? It has become a fairly routine surgery now and guys are coming back just fine from it. Now if it's some sort of injury that requires surgery in/around the shoulder then absolutely not, but if it's TJS to fix him and he's there at #6 you have to think about it.

[Guest]

If he were a Strasburgian talent, maybe. But there isn't exactly a chasm between healthy Giolito and other options at #6. HS pitchers are risky enough without known injury troubles, and the #6 pick is too prime an opportunity to get a difference maker.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Pitchers get hurt. WIth the #6 pick, I'd like to avoid someone we know has that issue. If he falls to a sandwich pick? Absolutely, even if signing him overslot hurts you in the rest of the Top 10 rounds. But not at #6

 

I'm in this camp. The baseball world is littered with big, hard throwing HS pitchers who busted due to injury. No need to increase the odds by taking an already injured arm, even if I do believe in science and medicine.

[davell]

While I agree with a lot of what TT said, I'm not so sure I agree with the notion if he's healthy, there's not a large difference between him and everyone else. Certainly, there's a developmental curve he's yet to go through, but it's definitely possible he IS a Strasburg type when he's 21. There's definitely not anyone else in this class that you can say that about currently. With the caveat that Strasburg himself wasn't a Strasburgian talent coming out of HS himself.

 

So, I guess the million dollar question is if he IS sitting there at 6, what does he need to do between now and June 4th, to get you guys to take him? Clean meds enough? Hitting 97-98?

[Guest]

Ask BA[/url]"]Giolito is the biggest wild card in the draft right now. The Harvard-Westlake High (Studio City, Calif.) product entered the year with a chance to become the first prep righthander ever drafted No. 1 overall. Giolito hit 100 mph with his fastball in late February, then sprained the ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow a week later. Now his health and signability are significant worries.

 

Giolito hasn't required surgery, though some teams wonder if he might down the line. He began throwing off flat ground two months after getting hurt, but he isn't expected to return to game action and it's unknown when or if he'll be able to throw a bullpen workout before the draft. Giolito was in line to command a bonus of $5 million or more, and clubs don't sense that he'll now come with a drastically reduced asking price.

 

"His dad says he will throw before the draft and they'll give everyone the medical report," one scouting director says. "But is he going to be tough to sign, or do they realize how fragile this all is?"

 

If a team drafts Giolito in the first three rounds and doesn't sign him, it will get a compensation pick in 2013 (the choice after the corresponding selection if he goes in the first two rounds, or a supplemental third-rounder if he's taken in the third round). But the club won't get to reallocate Giolito's assigned pick value as part of its bonus money in the first 10 rounds. That money just disappears.

 

Giolito's upside makes him worth gambling on, but a team won't have its cake (a compensation pick for him) and eat it too (the ability to spend his money elsewhere). Don't forget that a club looking to pay him will have to shuffle cash from other picks, weakening the rest of its draft. If he doesn't sign, that team doesn't get a do-over on its other selections.

 

As I mentioned in our initial first-round projection, a team with extra picks (like the Blue Jays, with five of the first 60 selections) makes the most sense for Giolito. With all the uncertainty, it's still too early to know which club(s) might bite.

[davell]

I will say this: If he won't come off of 5 mill, he's not worth the shuffling we'd have to do to fit him in our budget. Healthy or not.

[Guest]

Keith Law's first mock draft should be out in the next few hours. I hope someone can hook us up with the top 6 picks. :)

[RammyFanny]

Keith Law's first mock draft should be out in the next few hours. I hope someone can hook us up with the top 6 picks. :)

If he posts it in the next hour or so I can put it up, but i'm going to be gone for the day after that. If no one else does, check the prosportsdaily Cubs forums draft thread, they always are on top of things too.

[Guest]

Fried has been down around 87-90 the last few starts, topping out at 92.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Fried has been down around 87-90 the last few starts, topping out at 92.

 

Kershaw he is not.