2012 Draft Discussion

[Guest]

I still want Buxton.

[Guest]

I really like what I've read of Zimmer, Appel, Gausman, Zunino, and Buxton. I like the odds of one lasting to 6.

[davell]

I really like what I'm hearing on Correa too. If Giolito comes back strong, we've got a pleasant problem to choose between some of these guys.

[Guest]

@Jaypers413 (IL): Glad to read Giolito has been cleared to begin a throwing program. Assuming he's back to form, would you consider him to be a top 5 pick?

 

Nathan Rode: We're glad to hear it to. Lucas is an exceptional talent and you hate to see any kid go through something like that. There isn't a timetable for his full return yet so it's hard to say how things will shake out since we're looking at a four week window right. With that being said, a healthy Giolito is a Top 5 pick for me. His ceiling is so high that if he shows me a bullpen with crisp stuff before June 4, I'd strongly consider him in that mix.

 

Josh (Lake Charles, LA): With one month left before the draft, how much stock do you think Giolito will be able to regain? Will a team draft him high enough to keep him UCLA or does he seem destined to be a Bruin?

 

John Manuel: Sorry for delay. I don't know what to think of Giolito's stock, just because the more experience we have with high school pitchers throwing that hard, the less I think high school pitchers are meant to throw that hard. It just doesn't seem like it's healthy to throw 98-plus as a teenager. That said, I don't think he's a cinch to be a Bruin; there is a month of evaluation in between the draft and the signing period. Teams that don't mind evaluating guy in a workout (the Jack Z tree springs to mind) could decide he's worth the investment if he works out healthy, but it's going to be very tight to see him healthy before the draft. I can't argue with the Bruins experience; it worked well for Gerrit Cole. Push comes to shove, I see Giolito signing.

 

Brett (Lexington NC): What your thoughts on Dukes Marcus Stroman draft stock and is he a starter in pro ball?

 

Nathan Rode: I love watching Stroman, especially since his home starts are 10 minutes from my house. His stock is up from the preseason. I've seen him hold his velocity deep into games and he has the makings of at least two plus pitches so I do think he can start in pro ball. I bet he's given the chance to, but even if he's a reliever, it's a very good one with at least a plus fastball and slider. The changeup is pretty awesome too. If he does move to the pen, he'll move quickly.

 

Joel (KCK): It's starting to look more and more like Gausman will be the first college pitcher taken this year. Do you think he ends up going 1.1 to the Astros if they decide against Buxton?

 

John Manuel: If I were drafting — and Astros fans should be glad I'm not — and I wanted a college RHP this year, I'd go for Gausman. Nothing against Appel or Zimmer or Wacha, but I think Gausman has the best combination of size, stuff, projection ... the breaking ball has been there in the past, it should be at least an average pitch, and his fastball and change could both be plus down the line. I do believe, though, that the gap between Buxton and the rest of the class is significant enough that the Astros are going to wind up going Buxton unless one of those college RHPs separates himself from the pack in the next month.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

They need to stfu about Gausman. Guy is a legit talent. The mechanics and body type and a that remind me of a RH Hamels on the muscle juice (because a RH Hamels better throw harder).

[Guest]

Buxton or Buxt.

[Guest]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2012/05/correa-big-arms-stand-out-at-excellence-tournament/

 

Puerto Rico HS tournament scouting reviews, including Correa and RHP J.O. Berrios who has a lot of helium.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Buxton or Buxt.

 

You have to figure that economically a bat makes more sense than a pitcher. Offensive runs and defense are what's in demand right now.

 

OTOH Guasman is better.

 

:wink:

[davell]

MLBDraftInsider's latest mock has us passing on Zimmer and taking Fried. We're starting to get connected to him quite a bit by the guys who hear things. In the supplemental, he has us taking Barrett Barnes, a toolsy OFer from Texas Tech, who has really moved up the boards this season. Power and speed combo guy, with a long ways to go, but loads of potential. The other supplemental pick is Jesse Winker, a lefty HS OFer with tons of power, advanced approach and a Florida commit.

[Guest]

Kyle Zimmer will miss his start tonight due to a hamstring injury.

[Guest]

Likely 2013 top-5 pick Ryne Stanek is pitching for Arkansas on ESPNU right now.

[Guest]

Lucas Giolito threw his first pitch in 8 weeks today.

 

[davell]

I asked Callis on Twitter which of Appel, Gausman, or Zimmer was most likely to be available at 6 and he said Zimmer, but not likely any of them fall.

[davell]

Cubs were in attendance to watch Gausman pitch last night.

[CP_414]

As of right now, this is how I would rank my prefrences for the Cubs pick.

 

1. Healthy Giolito

2. Appel

3. Gausman

4. Correa

5. Buxton

6. Zimmer

7. Zunino

8. Fried

9. Almora

 

The more I hear about Correa, the more I like him. Getting way ahead of myself, and not sure where the pieces fit defensively, but a future infield with Castro, Rizzo, Baez, and Correa could be pretty special. However it falls 1-5, if Giolito shows he is healthy in the next month the Cubs will have a really good option at #6.

[davell]

I think I'd go Giolito, Buxton, Gausman, Zunino, Appel, Zimmer, Correa, Fried and Almora. At this point, I think it's one of that group.

[toonsterwu]

I haven't really pondered things as much as you guys, but assuming Buxton/Gausman/Zunino are off the board (and I think it would be a shocker if they weren't), I might go

 

1* - A healthy Giolito.

2. Correa

3. Zimmer

4. Fried

5. Almora

6. Appel

7. Wacha

8. Stroman

 

I simply want ceiling with that first pick. Preferably an arm, but if it's a bat, okay. I'm wary on Appel - never been a big fan, and not sold that Stroman is a starter at the next level. Admittedly, 2-7 is probably fairly close.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

I'd take Almora over Fried. Might take Almora over Correa as well. Almora is really fm interesting...Seems to have the talent to be an electric CF talent.

[Guest]

I haven't really pondered things as much as you guys, but assuming Buxton/Gausman/Zunino are off the board (and I think it would be a shocker if they weren't), I might go

 

1* - A healthy Giolito.

2. Correa

3. Zimmer

4. Fried

5. Almora

6. Appel

7. Wacha

8. Stroman

 

I simply want ceiling with that first pick. Preferably an arm, but if it's a bat, okay. I'm wary on Appel - never been a big fan, and not sold that Stroman is a starter at the next level. Admittedly, 2-7 is probably fairly close.

 

I don't see why Stroman can't start at the next level. His stuff hold very well late in his starts and he has 2 plus pitches.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Agreed with CR on Stroman there...Seen him more than I've seen Gausman this year (unfortunately and fortunately) and I see an athlete with very good core strength who repeats his delivery very well and throws his top two pitches consistently well. Already made the comp to Sheets in this thread and I like it more than I hate it.

[toonsterwu]

I'd take Almora over Fried. Might take Almora over Correa as well. Almora is really fm interesting...Seems to have the talent to be an electric CF talent.

 

For me, it comes down to how the internal scouting reports really come out on Fried. I know what's out there publicly, but if the Cubs felt that Fried could add a few ticks to his fastball (and some public reports seem to hint that), then I think I might take the power lefty over Almora. Close, though.

[toonsterwu]

I haven't really pondered things as much as you guys, but assuming Buxton/Gausman/Zunino are off the board (and I think it would be a shocker if they weren't), I might go

 

1* - A healthy Giolito.

2. Correa

3. Zimmer

4. Fried

5. Almora

6. Appel

7. Wacha

8. Stroman

 

I simply want ceiling with that first pick. Preferably an arm, but if it's a bat, okay. I'm wary on Appel - never been a big fan, and not sold that Stroman is a starter at the next level. Admittedly, 2-7 is probably fairly close.

 

I don't see why Stroman can't start at the next level. His stuff hold very well late in his starts and he has 2 plus pitches.

 

It's actually quite odd for me to argue against Stroman, in some respects, as he's fairly similar to Sonny Gray, and I liked Sonny Gray's chances to be a starter (but then again, there's some signs now that Gray may be better in the pen, so only time will tell). Hell, you could make an argument that Stroman's better than Gray because his change-up might be better at the same point in development.

 

That said, the couple times I caught him this year (UVA game primarily, but seen him a couple times), I kept thinking that guys got a good bead on him. In particular, outside of Jared King in that UVA game, the rest of the Wahoos actually had a decent read on his stuff, relative to a guy who's being talked about as a potential elite starter. Saw him a few other times, and I just tend to wonder if he can fool elite batters like he did the college batters that I saw. I know the reports, good physically, athletic, two plus pitches, good to plus change that flashes. Certainly, I haven't seen enough to make any deep judgment. Just personally, gut-feeling wise, don't love him as a starter next level.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

I'd take Almora over Fried. Might take Almora over Correa as well. Almora is really fm interesting...Seems to have the talent to be an electric CF talent.

 

For me, it comes down to how the internal scouting reports really come out on Fried. I know what's out there publicly, but if the Cubs felt that Fried could add a few ticks to his fastball (and some public reports seem to hint that), then I think I might take the power lefty over Almora. Close, though.

 

I prefer a HS arm's best pitch be his fastbal I guess. The only really exciting HS arm for me is Giolito.

 

If they like how Fried projects then sure, but IMO the most projectable/likeable LH HS arm is Virant. Better athlete, better mechanics, not as dependent on his breaking pitch...Virant is some good stuff and if he threw harder I think he'd be a top tier guy in this draft.

 

I will say that I've gone back and forth on Fried...

[davell]

The value for high school arms comes in the supplemental and 2nd round. Maybe even in the 3rd. There's very little separation between 5 and 25 or so, as far as HS righties go.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

The value for high school arms comes in the supplemental and 2nd round. Maybe even in the 3rd. There's very little separation between 5 and 25 or so, as far as HS righties go.

 

Overall just not an impressive class IMO...I'd like to find some sleepers but the ones I have heard of don't seem all that exciting.