2012 Draft Discussion

[Guest]

Hm...that makes me wonder if I overrate Gausman. What're the thoughts by others on this board on this guy? Does he have ace upside?

 

I'd say Gausman, Wacha and Zimmer all have #2 starter upside. Appel is the only one with ace potential.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Hm...that makes me wonder if I overrate Gausman. What're the thoughts by others on this board on this guy? Does he have ace upside?

 

I'd say Gausman, Wacha and Zimmer all have #2 starter upside. Appel is the only one with ace potential.

 

I always thought Gausman was the most projectable of the college pitchers. That one Ask BA question has ruined my confidence in my draft knowledge...not that I'm great with the baseball draft (sheer numbers overwhelm me).

 

Ah well...he's still the one I'd pick if Appel isn't on the board.

 

Any bats who'll be interesting for the 6th pick (besides Buxton and Zunino)?

[UK1679666180]

Hm...that makes me wonder if I overrate Gausman. What're the thoughts by others on this board on this guy? Does he have ace upside?

 

I'd say Gausman, Wacha and Zimmer all have #2 starter upside. Appel is the only one with ace potential.

 

Agreed with that.

 

Any bats who'll be interesting for the 6th pick (besides Buxton and Zunino)?

 

I like Correa and love Hawkins.

[Guest]

Hm...that makes me wonder if I overrate Gausman. What're the thoughts by others on this board on this guy? Does he have ace upside?

 

I'd say Gausman, Wacha and Zimmer all have #2 starter upside. Appel is the only one with ace potential.

 

Agreed with that.

 

Any bats who'll be interesting for the 6th pick (besides Buxton and Zunino)?

 

I like Correa and love Hawkins.

 

I like David Dahl (prep outfielder from Alabama).

[Guest]

Ask BA[/url]"]Is there any discussion about making prearranged deals with lesser talents in rounds 1-10 of the draft to free up funds for other choices in those rounds?

 

Brent Buckalew

Monticello, Ill.

 

I know that if a team doesn't sign a player it drafts in the top 10 rounds, it loses the value of that pick from its allocated bonus pool for the first 10 rounds. Is there anything to stop a team from drafting someone who figures to go in the 15th round or later much earlier than expected, then paying him a small bonus and using the leftover cash to spend elsewhere in the draft?

 

Mike Bush

Norwalk, Conn.

This is exactly the strategy teams are discussing to find ways to create extra money to sign players for more than their assigned pick values from the new Collective Bargaining Agreement. That also may be the only way to generate extra cash. For instance, a club could draft a college senior in the middle of the third round and sign him for $25,000, thus giving it an extra $400,000 to play with.

 

It looks like if a team jumps through a lot of hoops, it could sign one additional big-money player in the draft. However, it's still going to be difficult to scrape up enough cash to hand out a seven-figure bonus after the first 75 or so selections and nearly impossible to give huge money to a player who doesn't go near the very top of the draft.

 

Under the new rules, I don't see how the Pirates could have given Josh Bell (pick No. 61) $5 million, or how the Padres could have paid Austin Hedges (pick No. 82) $3 million, to name just two examples from the 2011 draft. It's possible that players will scale back their expectations, and teams are somewhat optimistic that they'll still be able to sign most of the best high school talent. But even if they were willing to take two-thirds of what they got paid in 2011, Bell now would have to go in the top five picks and Hedges in the first 17, or else their teams would have to do some juggling.

 

One thing to look out for when teams go bargain-hunting is that the potential bargains have more leverage than MLB probably intended. Because a team loses the assigned value of a pick in the top 10 rounds if he doesn't sign, it can't just ram a low bonus down a player's throat. It needs to know that a player, even a college senior, will take its offer.

 

I understand the necessity of taking away the pool money for choices in the first three rounds, because teams receive compensation if they don't sign them. It wouldn't make sense to allow, say, the Mariners to not sign the No. 64 choice in this year's draft and get both the value of that selection ($806,000) to spend elsewhere as well as the No. 62 pick in 2013. But I would have let teams do whatever they wanted with their assigned bonus pool for rounds 4-10—those pools range from $1.15 million (Phillies) to $1.38 million (Astros)—picks unprotected by compensation.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Hm...that makes me wonder if I overrate Gausman. What're the thoughts by others on this board on this guy? Does he have ace upside?

 

I'd say Gausman, Wacha and Zimmer all have #2 starter upside. Appel is the only one with ace potential.

 

Agreed with that.

 

Any bats who'll be interesting for the 6th pick (besides Buxton and Zunino)?

 

I like Correa and love Hawkins.

 

If you guys could throw out comps for the three arms, who would it be? I've always seen Wacha as someone who's stuff reminded me of Dan Haren, but trouble with the other two. Maybe someone thinks Haren is a bad comp, which would be cool because I now know jack shyte on this draft anyway.

 

Heard of Correa and he does sound interesting...Who's Hawkins and what up the middle position does he play? Without the Google I'm going to guess CF.

[iowahawkeyes89]

Assuming you're referring to college pitchers with ace potential? Because I think there are 3-4 hs pitchers with ace potential.

 

Bats at 6 I like Zunino or Correa

 

Doubt Buxton gets that far

[Guest]

Hm...that makes me wonder if I overrate Gausman. What're the thoughts by others on this board on this guy? Does he have ace upside?

 

I'd say Gausman, Wacha and Zimmer all have #2 starter upside. Appel is the only one with ace potential.

 

Agreed with that.

 

Any bats who'll be interesting for the 6th pick (besides Buxton and Zunino)?

 

I like Correa and love Hawkins.

 

If you guys could throw out comps for the three arms, who would it be? I've always seen Wacha as someone who's stuff reminded me of Dan Haren, but trouble with the other two. Maybe someone thinks Haren is a bad comp, which would be cool because I now know jack shyte on this draft anyway.

 

Heard of Correa and he does sound interesting...Who's Hawkins and what up the middle position does he play? Without the Google I'm going to guess CF.

 

Yeah, a prep CF from Texas.

[UK1679666180]

Hm...that makes me wonder if I overrate Gausman. What're the thoughts by others on this board on this guy? Does he have ace upside?

 

I'd say Gausman, Wacha and Zimmer all have #2 starter upside. Appel is the only one with ace potential.

 

Agreed with that.

 

Any bats who'll be interesting for the 6th pick (besides Buxton and Zunino)?

 

I like Correa and love Hawkins.

 

I like David Dahl (prep outfielder from Alabama).

 

Dahl is probably the most complete of all prep position guys, heard the Steve Finley comps. + bat speed, runner, arm, defender, etc. doesn't have the raw power of Hawkins who is right there w/Gallo as best in class.

 

I like him too.

 

I haven't been following Roache as much as I should do, hopefully he's on a hot streak.

[UK1679666180]

Hm...that makes me wonder if I overrate Gausman. What're the thoughts by others on this board on this guy? Does he have ace upside?

 

I'd say Gausman, Wacha and Zimmer all have #2 starter upside. Appel is the only one with ace potential.

 

Agreed with that.

 

Any bats who'll be interesting for the 6th pick (besides Buxton and Zunino)?

 

I like Correa and love Hawkins.

 

If you guys could throw out comps for the three arms, who would it be? I've always seen Wacha as someone who's stuff reminded me of Dan Haren, but trouble with the other two. Maybe someone thinks Haren is a bad comp, which would be cool because I now know jack shyte on this draft anyway.

 

Heard of Correa and he does sound interesting...Who's Hawkins and what up the middle position does he play? Without the Google I'm going to guess CF.

 

CF'er 6'2" 225 plus plus raw power, 6.65 60yd, throws 92 on the mound, gained attention as a pitcher 1st, needs to learn how to hit breaking balls like most HS'ers do.

 

Higher ceiling than Dahl, IMO b/c of the power and the demand likely req'd from it as offensive numbers cont. to decline, I do think Dahl is a safer bet to come close to his ceiling.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

CF'er 6'2" 225 plus plus raw power, 6.65 60yd, throws 92 on the mound, gained attention as a pitcher 1st, needs to learn how to hit breaking balls like most HS'ers do.

 

Higher ceiling than Dahl, IMO b/c of the power and the demand likely req'd from it as offensive numbers cont. to decline, I do think Dahl is a safer bet to come close to his ceiling.

 

Sounds interesting...Will try to find some video on him at some point.

 

I've heard of Dahl. He sounds interesting but not in a 6th overall type of way. Agreed that Dahl's profile sounds like a better bet to come close to his ceiling...Any similarities between Dahl and Brandon Nimmo from last year?

[UK1679666180]

Hm...that makes me wonder if I overrate Gausman. What're the thoughts by others on this board on this guy? Does he have ace upside?

 

I'd say Gausman, Wacha and Zimmer all have #2 starter upside. Appel is the only one with ace potential.

 

Agreed with that.

 

Any bats who'll be interesting for the 6th pick (besides Buxton and Zunino)?

 

I like Correa and love Hawkins.

 

If you guys could throw out comps for the three arms, who would it be? I've always seen Wacha as someone who's stuff reminded me of Dan Haren, but trouble with the other two. Maybe someone thinks Haren is a bad comp, which would be cool because I now know jack shyte on this draft anyway.

 

Heard of Correa and he does sound interesting...Who's Hawkins and what up the middle position does he play? Without the Google I'm going to guess CF.

 

Appel-Morrow with better control.

Gausman-Scott Baker.

Wacha-Doug Fister w/more velo.

Zimmer-Bard with a better change, likely less velo, and weaker slider.

Edited April 10, 2012 by UK

[UK1679666180]

CF'er 6'2" 225 plus plus raw power, 6.65 60yd, throws 92 on the mound, gained attention as a pitcher 1st, needs to learn how to hit breaking balls like most HS'ers do.

 

Higher ceiling than Dahl, IMO b/c of the power and the demand likely req'd from it as offensive numbers cont. to decline, I do think Dahl is a safer bet to come close to his ceiling.

 

Sounds interesting...Will try to find some video on him at some point.

 

I've heard of Dahl. He sounds interesting but not in a 6th overall type of way. Agreed that Dahl's profile sounds like a better bet to come close to his ceiling...Any similarities between Dahl and Brandon Nimmo from last year?

 

They're similar, Dahl has more size and a much better arm.

[davell]

Might have been Callis on Twitter today, when asked about this group of arms, compared Appel to Cole, but said he'd have taken Cole. Then mentioned Wacha, Gasman and Zimmer as more in the Barnes and Gray class than a Bauer. Just goes to show how strong last year's class was.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Any 2012 scouting reports on Kevin Gausman? I've only seen video from his first game, which left me impressed. Baker is an alright pitcher, but I was hoping for a more exciting name (though I can't really think of anyone to compare him to).

[Guest]

I haven't been following Roache as much as I should do, hopefully he's on a hot streak.

 

Victor Roache? He's still out injured.

[davell]

I want Giolito to come back, because the it basically assures us of getting him, Appel, Gausman, or Zimmer. Zunino and Buxton almost definitely go off the board before we pick. I really hope we have a shot at a Roache or Smoral at 43, since it'd give us 2 top 15ish type talents anyway. Would love to get a Traver, Underwood type HS arm with the other supp pick too.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Actually not too big on Roache...think he'll be a big K guy and he's similar to Michael Burgess...Maybe I underestimate his athleticism? How is he defensively? Probably one of those "not fast, but has a good arm' RF prospects who'll end up in LF is my guess, but can't say for sure obviously.

[iowahawkeyes89]

I'm hoping for Nathan Kirby, Hunter Virant or Luke Sims at 43.

[davell]

Law said today that Smoral probably still goes top 20, even with him being out for the year. Said Giolito needs to show some health, if he gets back into the top 10. Also said Buxton looks like overall top pick, but Correa is a darkhorse candidate. Mentioned top 5 as Buxton, Appel, Zunino, Zimmer, and Correa. That'd be cool with me, since Gausman and Giolito would be on the board.

[Guest]

Yesterday, Keith Law said Byron Buxton was the HS position prospect in the draft since Justin Upton.

 

BA dropped their new top 60 today: http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/draft/news/2012/2613243.html

 

1. Byron Buxton OF Appling County HS, Baxley, Ga.

2. Mike Zunino C Florida

3. Kyle Zimmer RHP San Francisco

4. Mark Appel RHP Stanford

5. Kevin Gausman RHP Louisiana State

6. Lucas Giolito RHP Harvard-Westlake HS, Studio City, Calif.

7. Michael Wacha RHP Texas A&M

8. Carlos Correa SS Puerto Rico Baseball Academy, Gurabo, P.R.

9. Marcus Stroman RHP Duke

10. Max Fried LHP Harvard-Westlake HS, Studio City, Calif.

 

Also, Keith Law has an updated top 50 with Buxton and Zunino 1-2 (Insider): http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story?id=7794760&_slug_=2012-mlb-draft-byron-buxton-mike-zunino-top-50-2012-draft-prospects&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fmlb%2fstory%3fid%3d7794760%26_slug_%3d2012-mlb-draft-byron-buxton-mike-zunino-top-50-2012-draft-prospects

[davell]

Not sure yet exactly what he's alluding to, but Chris Crawford of Mlbdraftinsider has his latest mock out and doesn't have Giolito in the 1st or supplemental round. Says he'll explain tomorrow night in his chat. My guess is Giolito has already let it be known that he's not going to sign anywhere unless he goes at a certain pick. For those that aren't familiar with Chris Crawford, he's extremely knowledgeable and also very accessible as well on Twitter. He had us getting Gausman, McCullers, and a HS C named Wyatt Matheson in his mock yesterday.

[Guest]

Not sure yet exactly what he's alluding to, but Chris Crawford of Mlbdraftinsider has his latest mock out and doesn't have Giolito in the 1st or supplemental round. Says he'll explain tomorrow night in his chat. My guess is Giolito has already let it be known that he's not going to sign anywhere unless he goes at a certain pick. For those that aren't familiar with Chris Crawford, he's extremely knowledgeable and also very accessible as well on Twitter. He had us getting Gausman, McCullers, and a HS C named Wyatt Matheson in his mock yesterday.

 

Not going to get my hopes up that Giolito makes it to UCLA.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Not going to get my hopes up that Giolito makes it to UCLA.

 

I wouldn't either. Someone will open up the wallet for that kind of talent.

[davell]

Not necessarly. Especially with the new CBA. He's going to have to prove he's healthy and a team picking relatively high is going to want to take a chance on him, over guys who are healthy. Only other option is for a team to go out and draft a bunch of college seniors that will sign well under slot, so they can ante up and pay him with whatever they have left in their allotment budget. I don't see any team going out and losing their next 2 1sts, just to sign him to a 4 or 5 mill bonus, that winds up costing them their next couple of 1sts AND an extra 3 mill or so, on top of that. I think he'll roll the dice, go to college, and see if he can be a top 5 pick in a couple of years, instead of taking mid to late 1st slot money now.