2012 Draft Discussion

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

My 6 guys right now would be Appel, Gausman, Zimmer, Zunino, Buxton, and Giolito. Even if he has to have TJS next season, I think his talent is worth keeping him on our list this high. Gausman and Appel are at the top for me right now, with Zunino right behind.

 

That's pretty much exactly where I am...Wouldn't hate Correa and I think I might like Fried more than I've said I did (might have the best LH curve I've seen in years). Only reason I'd be scared of picking Giolito is that he might just want to go to college and shoot for being #1 overall in 2015.

 

Any thoughts on Hunter Virant? He's doing a Derek Holland/Cliff Lee imitation mechanically, and long term I think he can hold it. His present stuff is a notch below Fried's, but I really like the arm, projectability, and athleticism. He's probably not top 10 material but long term I like him as much as any HS pitcher in this draft not named Giolito.

[Guest]

Jim Callis, Ask BA:

 

This morning I spoke with a scouting director whose team owns a top-10 pick in the draft, and he said if he had the No. 1 overall selection, there's no question whom he would take. He'd choose Georgia high school outfielder Byron Buxton, giving him at least 70s on the 20-80 scouting scale for raw power, speed, center-field defense and arm strength, as well as 70 potential as hitter. The director likes him more than Bubba Starling, the best athlete in the 2011 draft, saying that Buxton has a better package of tools, a better swing and better ability to recognize breaking pitches.

 

As for pitchers, the director raved about San Francisco righthander Kyle Zimmer, particularly the athleticism in his delivery—which he likes more than Stanford righty Mark Appel's. Zimmer has been flying up draft boards with his performance this spring, and he could join Appel and Buxton in the discussion for the No. 1 overall pick. Zimmer had blister issues in a Friday loss to Fresno State, but the former infielder has posted 25-1 K-BB ratio while pushing his fastball into the upper 90s and backing it up with a sharp curveball.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2012/2613102.html

 

FYI, Keith Law has Buxton #1 in his initial list of top draft prospects.

[davell]

I am glad Zimmer has stepped up because it basically gives us a solid group of 6, counting Giolito. I have seen Justin Upton used as a comp for Buxton.

[davell]

MlbDraftInsider's latest moch has us taking Giolito, followed by Roache with our 1st supplemental pick. Traver with the 2nd one. Two question marks, but damn, a TON of talent. I hope things fall this way.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

I am glad Zimmer has stepped up because it basically gives us a solid group of 6, counting Giolito. I have seen Justin Upton used as a comp for Buxton.

 

Seeing that comp for both big time OF prospects entering pro ball this year (possibly)....Says alot about Upton that probably has been said before anyway. Man I can't wait for Free Agency 2015 and that guy hits the market...no way will the Cubs be out of that one with the direction they took this offseason.

[davell]

Michael Wacha pitched a complete game 2 hitter against Pepperdine.walked zero, struck out 8. Was perfect thru 7. Catcher lost a full count K that was the first baserunner, then Wacha gave up an IF single. Last pitch hit 92. Changeup was filthy, as usual.

[Gilby]

Michael Wacha pitched a complete game 2 hitter against Pepperdine.walked zero, struck out 8. Was perfect thru 7. Catcher lost a full count K that was the first baserunner, then Wacha gave up an IF single. Last pitch hit 92. Changeup was filthy, as usual.

 

Any report on what his breaking pitch was like?

 

It would be nice if he could slip into the top 5, assuming Giolito is out of it, so we can have a chance at Zimmer.

[Guest]

Michael Wacha pitched a complete game 2 hitter against Pepperdine.walked zero, struck out 8. Was perfect thru 7. Catcher lost a full count K that was the first baserunner, then Wacha gave up an IF single. Last pitch hit 92. Changeup was filthy, as usual.

 

Any report on what his breaking pitch was like?

 

It would be nice if he could slip into the top 5, assuming Giolito is out of it, so we can have a chance at Zimmer.

 

Aaron Fitt was at the game. Didn't mention anything about his breaking stuff, just his FB and change. Fitt said Wacha looked like a top 5 pick.

 

@aaronfitt Final thing: heard a scout say of Wacha, "He doesn't even give you time to breathe. Every pitch is in the zone." Awfully impressive.

[davell]

I think he said his slider looks plus at times.

[Guest]

@jimcallisBA: Appel, Zimmer, Wacha, Gausman. @jillybohnson: How would you rank #mlbdraft prospects Appel, Gausman, ZImmer, and Wacha?

[Guest]

Zunino just keeps swinging the bat well. He hit 2 HRs this weekend and it was against good competition too (back-to-back champs South Carolina this weekend).

 

9 HRs on the season.

[davell]

Law was asked where in this draft does the talent take a drop and he said between 7 and 10. Sounds good to me. Really glad to see guys like Wacha and Zimmer step up to give us options. Also glad to see Marrero fading a bit from that range as well. I still kind of hope we take a shot on Giolito if he's thrown a bit before the draft.

[Gilby]

Law was asked where in this draft does the talent take a drop and he said between 7 and 10. Sounds good to me. Really glad to see guys like Wacha and Zimmer step up to give us options. Also glad to see Marrero fading a bit from that range as well. I still kind of hope we take a shot on Giolito if he's thrown a bit before the draft.

 

I don't know, at 6 I'd much rather take which ever one one of Wacha/Gausman/Zimmer/Appel is available over Giolito. Even if Giolito throws some before the draft, I'd bet money that he needs Tommy John in the near future. I'd rather go the safer, quicker route with one of the college pitchers.

[UK1679666180]

If there's any prospect you guys want to know about, let me know...

[davell]

If there's any prospect you guys want to know about, let me know...

Sweet. Let's go with college pitching........Appel, Zimmer, Wacha, and Gausman. Far ahead of every other college pitcher this year? How would you project these 4 in the future? And I might as well ask about Stroman as well. You think he can stick as a starter?

[davell]

Worth noting, Giolito's high school coach says he's making great progress, will start throwing very soon and.could be back on the mound sometime in April.

[Guest]

Some quotes from Aaron Fitt's college chat today:

 

Ralph (Montana): How many of these college pitchers are going to go in the top 10 this year. It seems as thought right now there are at least 5 or 6 that could be there.

 

Aaron Fitt: Right now, I see Appel, Zimmer, Gausman, Wacha and Stroman as strong contenders for the top 10. I would drop Chris Beck out of that group (I would have pegged him as a top 10 candidate heading into the year).

 

Blackie (Cincinnati (OH)): Hi Aaron. Thanks for the great Mike Wacha game report. I was surprised to hear about the slider, and had read in the off-season that Wacha was working on a cutter. Did he confirm that he's throwing a slider, and is there any relation between the pitches. Anyone who's followed him knows that the absence of a reliable third pitch has been his primary weakness, and it's good to hear that he's wisely continued using his curve as an early count strike as he was at the end of last season.

 

Aaron Fitt: Wacha and Rob Childress both talked about the slider and made no mention of a cutter, and I didn't see a cutter, so it seems that's not part of his attack. Childress mentioned that the curveball has really improved and is not just a show pitch�he says it's a pitch Wacha can put hitters away with. It did have good shape and depth, and it will be interesting to see if Wacha starts throwing it more as an out pitch, because he did not really use it that way Friday. I'll have more on Wacha tomorrow on the College Page.

 

Joe LeCates (Easton, MD): Aaron, thank you for the chat today. I've never really been keen on Deven Marrero as a possible 1-1 guy so I may be picking on this unfairly, but has his so-so season thus far dropped his stock for this year's draft?

 

Aaron Fitt: You know, I think it has a little bit. I've seen a good bit of Marrero over the last three years, and it seems he always has quiet games with the bat every time I see him. Then you look at the numbers, and you realize he's never really put up loud numbers with the BBCOR bats. Marrero is a special defender, a true major league-caliber shortstop — that is the scouting consensus, and I agree with it. But he is not a great runner, and he is not special with the bat. I know scouts who think similarly. I don't see Marrero as a 1-1 kind of guy at this stage, and he's feeling more and more like a middle of the first round type.

 

Game report on Michael Wacha: http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2012/03/game-report-michael-wacha-dominates-for-texas-am/

 

In recent weeks, Texas A&M junior righty Michael Wacha has generated more and more buzz as another candidate for the top pick, just as Zimmer has. After allowing nine runs on 11 hits against Kansas State last week, Wacha bounced back in overpowering fashion, allowing just two hits in a complete-game shutout at Pepperdine, as the Aggies won 4-0 on Friday.

 

...

 

Wacha's stuff was downright electric. He sat in the 92-94 range early, topping out at 95-96 in the second. He held his 90-93 velocity into the ninth, and his last pitch of the day was a 92 mph fastball. As usual, Wacha's plus-plus changeup was a major weapon against both lefthanded hitters and righties. He threw it in the 83-86 mph range, and he got a number of swing-and-misses with it thanks to its hard tumbling action. He also recorded a strikeout in the second inning with his 81-83 slider, which he mixed in a handful of times throughout the game against righties. In the middle innings, he started throwing a 75-76 curveball for strikes early in counts.

[UK1679666180]

If there's any prospect you guys want to know about, let me know...

Sweet. Let's go with college pitching........Appel, Zimmer, Wacha, and Gausman. Far ahead of every other college pitcher this year? How would you project these 4 in the future? And I might as well ask about Stroman as well. You think he can stick as a starter?

 

(Sorry about the delay)

 

There's a couple of gaps between those 4 and everyone else.

 

I like Heaney out of OSU as well, not getting much pub, but could be fast-tracked.

 

Appel - He's hard to figure out for me, the size is there, there's little rigidness to his delivery and flashed a plus change and a once in awhile good curve, and despite that with a plus-plus FB, he's just learning to miss bats.

 

I project Appel to be an all-star, the development of his curve will determine whether he's an annual top 10 starter or an occasional all-star.

 

Zimmer - I had him a notch below Appel and Gausman at the start, but I like him more than Appel as far as ceiling, velo is similar to Appel with a better breaking ball. Less likely to reach ceiling compared to Appel. I expect him to have a Morrow type career.

 

Gausman - Has to find a breaking ball at this point, has the best change-up of the 4 listed, the most raw of the 4. I'm hoping he's avail at 4. I imagine the Cubs are going to be patient with arms unlike previously and he's possibly going to be there but who knows with the injuries so far.

 

Wacha- Uses his FB the best among the 4, pitches to both sides of the plate and doesn't try to just throw it for a strike and overpower like Appel. Like Gausman, doesn't have the breaking ball down yet, lowest ceiling among the 4.

 

I project Stroman to close, a team might try him as a starter but the difference between a 92-94 FB as a starter with a very good slider and a 95-98 FB and a plus-plus slider. I expect a similar situation as Cashner. Teams will likely be quicker to stick him at closer given size and Gordon comps.

[davell]

Thanks UK. How high are you on Max Fried? He evidently was still hitting 92 today in the 7th inning, so his velo is coming around. We wouldn't pass up a college arm for him, would we?

[UK1679666180]

Thanks UK. How high are you on Max Fried? He evidently was still hitting 92 today in the 7th inning, so his velo is coming around. We wouldn't pass up a college arm for him, would we?

 

Who knows what the Cubs are thinking, this draft is going to be such a crap-shoot for them. They have area scouts that were under Hendry, obviously a new FO, and all the draft changes all wrapped up into 6 months of chaos.

 

Fried has supposedly touched 96 and sitting 91-93, I don't think his curve has gained the same velo yet that his FB has gained compared to when he was 87-90.

 

You take a lefty with that type of breaking ball, you immediately think of Zito in his prime, combine that with the potential of his changeup to be a plus pitch. I wouldn't pass him up if he's there.

[Guest]

Fried's curve is still 75-78 from the reports I've seen.

 

I have to imagine he's pitched his way into the top 10.

[Gilby]

UK, you have Gausman with a better change than Wacha?

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Wanted to post this much earlier but I had a very dramatic meltdown witnessed by many. Seen Wacha a few times and the guy that comes to mind with him is Dan Haren with a change up rather than splitter. Will he have Haren's control? Probably not.

 

UK, any thoughts on Hunter Virant? I'm really high on this guy in this draft. Does he have a chance to pass Fried or is just that not happening?

[davell]

Short of injuries cropping up, we're going to get a top tier guy at 6. I'm glad some guys have stepped up. Buxton and Zunino is it, as far as hitting goes, but we've got Appel, Gausman, Zimmer, and Wacha, so someone's falling to us. Add in Giolito and it looks good for us, much better than it did before the season started.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

UK, you have Gausman with a better change than Wacha?

 

Not UK but yes. Gausman might have the uber rare RH out pitch change. If he finds his breaking stuff then you're looking at a guy who has similar stuff to Clay Buchholz at his best.