Minor League Discussion & Boxes 5-2-11

[Outshined_One]

Box Scores

 

Iowa lost 5-0 Box Score

 

CF T. Campana 1/4, K

DH L. Montanez 0/4, K

RF B. Snyder 1/3, BB, 2 K

C W. Castillo 0/4, 3 K

1B B. LaHair 0/3

2B B. Scales 1/3, 2B (11), K

3B M. Smith 0/3, K

LF F. Perez 0/3

SS M. Camp 0/3, K

SP R. Coello 4 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 3 K, 2 HR, 1-7 GO-FO

RP P. Trinidad 4 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K, 3-4 GO-FO

RP J. Stevens 1 perfect, 2-0 GO-FO

 

Tennessee won 9-4 Box Score

 

2B DJ LeMahie 2/5, 2 R, 2B (7)

RF M. Spencer 2/4, 2 R, 2 RBI, HR (3)

LF R. Ridling 2/4, 2 R, RBI, K

C S. Clevenger 1/2, 2 BB, R, 2 RBI, 2B (6)

3B J. Vitters 2/4, 2 R, 2 RBI, 2B (7), HR (4)

SS M. Gonzalez 3/4, 2 RBI

CF B. Jackson 0/1

SP R. Whitenack 5 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, 6-4 GO-FO

RP HW Chen 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 K, 2-2 GO-FO

RP M. Carrillo 1 perfect, 2-0 GO-FO

RP B. Parker 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 K, 0-1 GO-FO

 

Daytona won 7-5 Box Score

 

SS J. Lake 3/5, R, RBI, SB (8)

3B M. Cerda 2/4, BB

CF JH Ha 1/5, R, K, Assist (3B)

1B J. Bour 1/3, BB, 2 R, 2 K

RF N. Perez 2/4, 2 R, 4 RBI, HR (3), K

LF M. Burgess 1/3, BB, R, RBI, 2B (6), K

C M. Brenly 1/3, RBI

2B L. Watkins 0/4, 2 K, E (2, fielding)

SP J. Lorick 4.1 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 2 K, HR, 4-3 GO-FO, E (2, throw)

RP J. Serrano 2.1 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 4-4 GO-FO

RP J. Beliveau 1.1 IP, 1 H, 0 H, 0 BB, 2 K, 1-0 GO-FO

RP F. Batista 1 perfect, 1 K, 2-0 GO-FO

 

Peoria lost 3-2 Box Score

 

CF M. Szczur 0/3, 2 BB, R, K, 3 SB (5)

2B P. LePage 1/4, R, RBI, 2B (6)

RF R. Silva 3/4, E (2, throw)

1B R. Jones 0/3, RBI, K

3B E. Soto 2/4, K

C S. Burruel 0/2, 2 BB

SS A. Alcantara 0/4, K, E (7, throw)

SP R. Lopez 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 2 K, WP, HBP, 5-3 GO-FO

RP J. Antigua 1.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 K, 2-0 GO-FO

RP B. Shafer 1 IP, 0 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K, 1-1 GO-FO

 

OVERALL: 2-2

[Guest]

Probable Starters

 

Iowa: RHP Robert Coello (2-2, 9.00 ERA, 20 IP, 14 K, 12 BB)

Tennessee: RHP Robert Whitenack (0-0, 0.00 ERA, 6 IP, 3 K, 0 BB; AA & A+: 3-0, 0.93 ERA, 29 IP, 28 K, 1 BB)

Daytona: LHP Jeffrey Lorick (2-0, 0.63 ERA, 14.1 IP, 11 K, 3 BB)

Peoria: RHP Robinson Lopez (1-0, 5.29 ERA, 17 IP, 8 K, 6 BB)

[Little Slide Rooter]

So they're going to try out Lorick as a starter, huh? Interesting.

[BeerHere]

Is it pronounced wit-nack of white-nack?

[Guest]

Whitenack getting roughed up. He has given up 4 through 3. LeMahieu and Vitters each have a double while Flaherty and Jackson have the day off.

[CubColtPacer]

Vitters adds a home run. His ISOP is now .229 and his strikeout percentage is 7.2. I have to think that if he's hitting pitcher's strikes his ISOP couldn't be that high and if he's just swinging wildly his strikeout percentage couldn't be that low. His overall numbers are still middling though because he hasn't hit enough singles.

[Guest]

Vitters adds a home run. His ISOP is now .229 and his strikeout percentage is 7.2. I have to think that if he's hitting pitcher's strikes his ISOP couldn't be that high and if he's just swinging wildly his strikeout percentage couldn't be that low. His overall numbers are still middling though because he hasn't hit enough singles.

Such a difficult player to figure out. I still think he has the babip normalize a bit and ends up with good results. If he keeps the power up and the strikeouts down, he should be fine in the long run.

[Guest]

Su-Min Jung and Justin Bristow were added to Peoria's roster. Juan Yasser Serrano was promoted to Daytona. Dallas Beeler (oblique) and Graham Hicks (flexor pronator) have been placed on Peoria's DL. - source: Peoria Chiefs game notes

[Guest]

Su-Min Jung and Justin Bristow were added to Peoria's roster. Juan Yasser Serrano was promoted to Daytona. Dallas Beeler (oblique) and Graham Hicks (flexor pronator) have been placed on Peoria's DL. - source: Peoria Chiefs game notes

Shouldn't that leave one more move?

[Guest]

Su-Min Jung and Justin Bristow were added to Peoria's roster. Juan Yasser Serrano was promoted to Daytona. Dallas Beeler (oblique) and Graham Hicks (flexor pronator) have been placed on Peoria's DL. - source: Peoria Chiefs game notes

Shouldn't that leave one more move?

 

Yeah. The Chiefs are playing with 1 vacant spot on their roster.

[HossmanGT]

Vitters adds a home run. His ISOP is now .229 and his strikeout percentage is 7.2. I have to think that if he's hitting pitcher's strikes his ISOP couldn't be that high and if he's just swinging wildly his strikeout percentage couldn't be that low. His overall numbers are still middling though because he hasn't hit enough singles.

Such a difficult player to figure out. I still think he has the babip normalize a bit and ends up with good results. If he keeps the power up and the strikeouts down, he should be fine in the long run.

 

Wasn't Vitters' babip low last year as well in Tennessee? Should expect a normalized babip from Vitters? Based on reports of his combination of great eye-hand coordination and free swinging, it seems he often puts poor pitches in play and would be a candidate for a consistently low babip.

[Outshined_One]

So they're going to try out Lorick as a starter, huh? Interesting.

 

I'm guessing he got pressed into starting duty due to Daytona's double header yesterday.

[CubColtPacer]

Vitters adds a home run. His ISOP is now .229 and his strikeout percentage is 7.2. I have to think that if he's hitting pitcher's strikes his ISOP couldn't be that high and if he's just swinging wildly his strikeout percentage couldn't be that low. His overall numbers are still middling though because he hasn't hit enough singles.

Such a difficult player to figure out. I still think he has the babip normalize a bit and ends up with good results. If he keeps the power up and the strikeouts down, he should be fine in the long run.

 

Wasn't Vitters' babip low last year as well in Tennessee? Should expect a normalized babip from Vitters? Based on reports of his combination of great eye-hand coordination and free swinging, it seems he often puts poor pitches in play and would be a candidate for a consistently low babip.

 

Vitters had bad BABIPs after both his midseason promotions to both Daytona and Tennessee. But at both of those stops he had less extra base hits and more strikeouts (at Tennessee last year he had substantially more strikeouts). Both of those tend to indicate a hitter who is swinging at pitches at the end of the strike zone or worse-when he connects, it results in outs or singles but frequently he doesn't connect.

 

This year neither of those things are true which is the reason his incredibly low BABIP doesn't make nearly as much sense. And his BABIP so far at Tennessee is worse than either of those other stops.

[Guest]

Vitters adds a home run. His ISOP is now .229 and his strikeout percentage is 7.2. I have to think that if he's hitting pitcher's strikes his ISOP couldn't be that high and if he's just swinging wildly his strikeout percentage couldn't be that low. His overall numbers are still middling though because he hasn't hit enough singles.

Such a difficult player to figure out. I still think he has the babip normalize a bit and ends up with good results. If he keeps the power up and the strikeouts down, he should be fine in the long run.

 

Wasn't Vitters' babip low last year as well in Tennessee? Should expect a normalized babip from Vitters? Based on reports of his combination of great eye-hand coordination and free swinging, it seems he often puts poor pitches in play and would be a candidate for a consistently low babip.

 

Well if his strikeout rate remains 2.5x lower than previous seasons, then I think it's fair to expect a more normalized BABIP from him.

[Guest]

Reggie Golden (400+ feet) and Dong-Yub Kim hit homers today at Fitch: http://www.thecubreporter.com/2011/05/02/golden-jack-and-dong-dinger-todays-breakfast-specials-fitch-park

 

Justin Bristow is back to throwing at 93.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Neslon Perez: anybody?

[Guest]

Vitters adds a home run. His ISOP is now .229 and his strikeout percentage is 7.2. I have to think that if he's hitting pitcher's strikes his ISOP couldn't be that high and if he's just swinging wildly his strikeout percentage couldn't be that low. His overall numbers are still middling though because he hasn't hit enough singles.

Such a difficult player to figure out. I still think he has the babip normalize a bit and ends up with good results. If he keeps the power up and the strikeouts down, he should be fine in the long run.

 

Wasn't Vitters' babip low last year as well in Tennessee? Should expect a normalized babip from Vitters? Based on reports of his combination of great eye-hand coordination and free swinging, it seems he often puts poor pitches in play and would be a candidate for a consistently low babip.

 

Well if his strikeout rate remains 2.5x lower than previous seasons, then I think it's fair to expect a more normalized BABIP from him.

I think it would be some combination of LD% and FB/GB ratio. Him striking out less presumably means he's putting the ball in play more, that alone won't tell the stroy unless you think it's simply a matter of regression to the mean. I would think given his skill set (slower than average speed/better than average abilty to make contact), putting the ball in play and not hitting more line drives or more flyballs would mean the BABIP would stay at historic levels for him.

[Guest]

Vitters adds a home run. His ISOP is now .229 and his strikeout percentage is 7.2. I have to think that if he's hitting pitcher's strikes his ISOP couldn't be that high and if he's just swinging wildly his strikeout percentage couldn't be that low. His overall numbers are still middling though because he hasn't hit enough singles.

Such a difficult player to figure out. I still think he has the babip normalize a bit and ends up with good results. If he keeps the power up and the strikeouts down, he should be fine in the long run.

 

Wasn't Vitters' babip low last year as well in Tennessee? Should expect a normalized babip from Vitters? Based on reports of his combination of great eye-hand coordination and free swinging, it seems he often puts poor pitches in play and would be a candidate for a consistently low babip.

 

Well if his strikeout rate remains 2.5x lower than previous seasons, then I think it's fair to expect a more normalized BABIP from him.

I think it would be some combination of LD% and FB/GB ratio. Him striking out less presumably means he's putting the ball in play more, that alone won't tell the stroy unless you think it's simply a matter of regression to the mean. I would think given his skill set (slower than average speed/better than average abilty to make contact), putting the ball in play and not hitting more line drives or more flyballs would mean the BABIP would stay at historic levels for him.

What you say definitely impacts his babip in negative ways. However, if he's also hitting the ball hard enough on a consistent basis for that kind of isop, he's very likely to achieve a better babip, too.

[sneakypower]

fwiw, Vitters' career BABiP so far is .297 and his speed score is 4.3

[craig]

fwiw, Vitters' career BABiP so far is .297 and his speed score is 4.3

 

The typical BABIP in the majors is a nice round easy-to-remember .300. In this 2010 article, the most recent season had been 2009, with a .299 BABIP. Which would seem to put Vitters career only slightly below.

 

However, minor-league BABIP is typically somewhat higher. (http://cutfour.com/2010/12/minor-league-babip/) Over the last five seasons, the average BABIP in full-season leagues has been a shade over .310. Last year it was .3134.

 

Interestingly, there is only a modest "level" factor. In other words, there is no notable pattern getting higher or lower from A-AA-AAA. There are some modest league factors. The California league not surprisingly is high (.324 over the five years), the PCL is a little high (.317), and several are more in the .304 (Eastern)-.306 (FSL, Carolina)-.308 (Southern) range.

 

So if Vitters is a career .297, he's definitely on the low side relative to minor leaguers, although not enormously so. Makes sense for a slow RHH who hits a fair amount of weak grounders and weak flies.