Pujols signs with Angels pg 151

[Sammy Sofa]

You're pretty confident about this. I keep waiting for some kind of ace up your sleeve.

You're just going to have to trust him.

 

At least give me this: Albert Pujols is not as a good of a baseball player this year as he has been throughout his career and it's not impossible to imagine that he is starting to decline. And that in four years, he isn't going to be worth anywhere near the money the Cardinals (hopefully) pay him.

 

Pretty much nobody here who is in favor of signing him has ignored the fact that he will be declining during a good chunk of that contract. Maybe even technically most of it. The key though is that the greatest hitter of all time can afford to start declining and still be either better than everyone else or in the very top tier of players. Unless he topples of a cliff a "typical" decline from a player of Pujols' caliber is more than acceptable.

 

And quite honestly, even if he falls off of a cliff after 4-5 years of an 8-year contract, it'll be almost certainly worth it. He's THAT good.

[davearm2]

Everyone can be right here, you know.

 

Pujols is very likely to continue to be a great to elite hitter for several more years.

 

He is also very likely to be overpaid in his next contract, suffer age-related decline, represent an increased injury risk, etc. etc.

 

In the end, it screams "paying through the nose for past production" to me, but the future production will still be worth a lot.

[Guest]

A "crappy" Pujols is still a very good player. That's the distinction people can't seem to make between him and lesser players like Soriano or Zambrano. Soriano in decline is not only no longer worthy of his contract, but he's barely worthy of his position on the field. An all-time great like Pujols in decline may not be worth his contract, but he'll still be contributing on the field.

[Sammy Sofa]

Every superstar player is overpaid when they come to a point like Pujols is (Fielder, too). There's no "likely" about it. You have to overpay for those guys to get them on your team unless your team has developed them through the farm system (and then you can at least get some years of amazing production at "discount" levels).

[UMFan83]

I know people are scared with a Soriano like situation happening with along contract with Pujols. I get that. But the fact is Pujols is light years better than Soriano at the peaks of their careers. Pujols has patience and discipline that Soriano could only dream of. I wouldn't be surprised if Pujols' OPS+ would be better at 38 than Soriano in his best season.

 

Looking at similar batters to Pujols. First of all, Albert Belle of all people is #1, but since he didn't play into his mid 30's:

 

#2. Hank Greenberg. Played until he was 36. In his age 36 season, he had a 131 OPS+ and a 3.1 WAR. The season before he had a 162 OPS+ and a 6.6 WAR.

 

#3 Johnny Mize. Played until he was 40. In his age 39 and 40 seasons, he had OPS+'s of 110 and 100. Sure a far cry from his career 158, but still a slightly above league average hitter at age 40.

 

Unfortunately, #4,5,6,7,9,10 were all steroid era hitters, and #8 was Chuck Klien, but regardless, although its not the smartest thing ever to pay a 40 year old guy 30 million, I don't expect him to combine for a 1.2 WAR over 3 seasons when he's 38-40 like Soriano has so far from 33-35. And in the meantime he will be contending for the MVP for probably (hopefully) the first maybe 5 years of the deal.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Every superstar player is overpaid when they come to a point like Pujols is (Fielder, too). There's no "likely" about it. You have to overpay for those guys to get them on your team unless your team has developed them through the farm system (and then you can at least get some years of amazing production at "discount" levels).

 

I guess I don't mind overpaying them as much if I thought they were still going to enjoy their peak years with my team. It would really bother me paying Pujols for what he has done and not what he is going to do, especially when he did all that stuff for another team.

 

Pujols is going to get the $30 million from the Cardinals based on what he already has accomplished. I'd rather get Prince for lesser money and perhaps fewer years knowing that I still might get the best offensive seasons of his career.

[Sammy Sofa]

Pujols is going to get the $30 million from the Cardinals based on what he already has accomplished.

 

I'd be stunned if he actually gets that money from the Cardinals.

 

And I understand the "peak years" argument, but again, we're talking about a very, very exceptional player here.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

And in the meantime he will be contending for the MVP for probably (hopefully) the first maybe 5 years of the deal.

 

If he's contending for the MVP for the first five years of an eight year deal, then I was wrong and I would be down with that. Make it happen!

[sneakypower]

The huge drop in walks is pretty concerning.

 

Yup. Was going to bring that up, too. He's not walking because he's swinging at a ton more crap. Maybe he's pressing to get a big contract, but the dude is swinging at more junk than ever before.

 

"A ton" in this case = 0.7% more than last year.

that's a bit of a dishonest way of framing it

 

yes, he's swung at 28.2% of pitches outside the zone this year compared to 27.5% last year, which isn't a big deal until you realize his previous worst rate was just 22.9% (the year before) and that his career average is 20.8%

 

PleasewinCubs' statement about Pujols swinging at more crap is very defensible, and makes his low BABIP look like less of a fluke; still, it's pretty rash to discount him altogether based solely on this

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Pujols is going to get the $30 million from the Cardinals based on what he already has accomplished.

 

I'd be stunned if he actually gets that money from the Cardinals.

 

And I understand the "peak years" argument, but again, we're talking about a very, very exceptional player here.

 

What do you think the contract will end up being? More like 10 years, $250? And do you have him returning to the Cardinals like I do?

[Bryants Disco Ball]

The huge drop in walks is pretty concerning.

 

Yup. Was going to bring that up, too. He's not walking because he's swinging at a ton more crap. Maybe he's pressing to get a big contract, but the dude is swinging at more junk than ever before.

 

"A ton" in this case = 0.7% more than last year.

that's a bit of a dishonest way of framing it

 

yes, he's swung at 28.2% of pitches outside the zone this year compared to 27.5% last year, which isn't a big deal until you realize his previous worst rate was just 22.9% (the year before) and that his career average is 20.8%

 

PleasewinCubs' statement about Pujols swinging at more crap is very defensible, and makes his low BABIP look like less of a fluke; still, it's pretty rash to discount him altogether based solely on this

 

Good stuff. I'll admit, I respect people here based on all the numbers people come up with to frame discussions.

 

I'd be more like the old-school scouts people hate. I just watch players and feel like you can tell when they just aren't the same anymore. I'll leave the numbers stuff to smarter guys on this board, but when I watch Albert this year as opposed to years past, I just know he's swinging at more junk because it stands out so much. One of those, 'Wow, I've never seen him chase that pitch before' type thing.

[Guest]

The huge drop in walks is pretty concerning.

 

Yup. Was going to bring that up, too. He's not walking because he's swinging at a ton more crap. Maybe he's pressing to get a big contract, but the dude is swinging at more junk than ever before.

 

"A ton" in this case = 0.7% more than last year.

that's a bit of a dishonest way of framing it

 

yes, he's swung at 28.2% of pitches outside the zone this year compared to 27.5% last year, which isn't a big deal until you realize his previous worst rate was just 22.9% (the year before) and that his career average is 20.8%

 

PleasewinCubs' statement about Pujols swinging at more crap is very defensible, and makes his low BABIP look like less of a fluke; still, it's pretty rash to discount him altogether based solely on this

 

His entire argument has been about Pujols being different this year, so unless he was ranting about him last year it's not super relevant. Yes, Pujols has swung at more out of the zone the last two years, but I'm not sure how that points towards a declining skillset(especially since he's getting better at making contact with those pitches). If anything, that would make me wonder if something external was driving that jump, be it hitting coach or run environment. Anyone know where to find those swing% numbers league-wide?

[Sammy Sofa]

Pujols is going to get the $30 million from the Cardinals based on what he already has accomplished.

 

I'd be stunned if he actually gets that money from the Cardinals.

 

And I understand the "peak years" argument, but again, we're talking about a very, very exceptional player here.

 

What do you think the contract will end up being? More like 10 years, $250? And do you have him returning to the Cardinals like I do?

 

I really don't know. I'm inclined to think the Cardinals are the clear favorite, but their reported offer to him before the season was so absurdly far off from his reported demands that it doesn't seem likely. Couple that with the potentially expensive moves they've set themselves up to make with all the players they have with options and expiring contracts and what have you and I really don't see him re-signing with them. Sure, the guy could take a huge hometown discount, but I have to imagine there's a lot of pressure on him from the union to set a precedent. The Cardinals could also suddenly up their payroll, which they'd have to do to keep their team from effectively being Holliday, Pujols, Wainwright and crap for a while.

[Sammy Sofa]

The huge drop in walks is pretty concerning.

 

Yup. Was going to bring that up, too. He's not walking because he's swinging at a ton more crap. Maybe he's pressing to get a big contract, but the dude is swinging at more junk than ever before.

 

"A ton" in this case = 0.7% more than last year.

that's a bit of a dishonest way of framing it

 

yes, he's swung at 28.2% of pitches outside the zone this year compared to 27.5% last year, which isn't a big deal until you realize his previous worst rate was just 22.9% (the year before) and that his career average is 20.8%

 

PleasewinCubs' statement about Pujols swinging at more crap is very defensible, and makes his low BABIP look like less of a fluke; still, it's pretty rash to discount him altogether based solely on this

 

Good stuff. I'll admit, I respect people here based on all the numbers people come up with to frame discussions.

 

I'd be more like the old-school scouts people hate. I just watch players and feel like you can tell when they just aren't the same anymore. I'll leave the numbers stuff to smarter guys on this board, but when I watch Albert this year as opposed to years past, I just know he's swinging at more junk because it stands out so much. One of those, 'Wow, I've never seen him chase that pitch before' type thing.

 

See TT's post below yours.

[sneakypower]

The huge drop in walks is pretty concerning.

 

Yup. Was going to bring that up, too. He's not walking because he's swinging at a ton more crap. Maybe he's pressing to get a big contract, but the dude is swinging at more junk than ever before.

 

"A ton" in this case = 0.7% more than last year.

that's a bit of a dishonest way of framing it

 

yes, he's swung at 28.2% of pitches outside the zone this year compared to 27.5% last year, which isn't a big deal until you realize his previous worst rate was just 22.9% (the year before) and that his career average is 20.8%

 

PleasewinCubs' statement about Pujols swinging at more crap is very defensible, and makes his low BABIP look like less of a fluke; still, it's pretty rash to discount him altogether based solely on this

 

His entire argument has been about Pujols being different this year, so unless he was ranting about him last year it's not super relevant. Yes, Pujols has swung at more out of the zone the last two years, but I'm not sure how that points towards a declining skillset(especially since he's getting better at making contact with those pitches). If anything, that would make me wonder if something external was driving that jump, be it hitting coach or run environment. Anyone know where to find those swing% numbers league-wide?

i think the FG Show Averages link under plate discipline shows that (edit: looks like it does - it's the same for each player page)

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1177&position=1B#platediscipline

 

if that's correct, league-wide O-Swing% has in fact increased the last two years, by a substantial margin: 30.1% and 29.3% after hovering right around 25% the previous four years

 

hadn't really considered it, and i wonder what would cause that effect

Edited August 2, 2011 by sneakypower

[UMFan83]

And in the meantime he will be contending for the MVP for probably (hopefully) the first maybe 5 years of the deal.

 

If he's contending for the MVP for the first five years of an eight year deal, then I was wrong and I would be down with that. Make it happen!

 

Sarcasm is noticed. Maybe 5 years is a bit of a stretch, and I understand that people don't stay in peak form until age 38 anymore, but Pujols is such a fantastic hitter with an approach that can keep him highly productive despite a decline in bat speed.

 

Hank Aaron: .928 career OPS, .906 OPS ages 35-42

Babe Ruth: 1.164 career OPS, 1.116 OPS ages 35-40

Stan Musial: .976 career OPS, .893 OPS ages 35-42

Ted Williams: 1.116 career OPS, 1.102 OPS ages 35-41

 

Now I realize these are different eras we are talking about and its much harder to get away with declining bat speed in this era (its obviously hard to measure the players from the late 80's/90's era) but the point stands that some of the best hitters this game has ever seen have been able to keep it going well into their late 30's.

 

PS I havent read maybe the last 30 pages of this thread, so if this "declining skills" discussion has been had ad nauseum, I am sorry for likely bringing up stuff already discussed.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

I guess my whole point is that I have very deep concerns that Albert Pujols is starting to decline. It's true I didn't rant about Pujols last season, but it's because I never even pondered the chance that he'd be a Cub two years from then. That said, no doubt Pujols had a great season in 2010 and I'd have been all over giving him a huge contract.

 

Watching him this season, no matter if the numbers support it or not (I know, stupid statement), it just looks like Albert is taking his first real steps toward a decline. I appreciate the thinking that even a declined Pujols is better than most, but I'm just not sure how I feel about that. I'm not convinced that he won't decline quickly. I'm not convinced that he's not going to just be a really good player when we need him to be a great one for the investment.

 

I guess we will see how he looks at the end of this season and go from there. I have a feeling that by October there will be more people like me who aren't as interested as they previously had been.

[Guest]

if that's correct, league-wide O-Swing% has in fact increased the last two years, by a substantial margin: 30.1% and 29.3% after hovering right around 25% the previous four years

 

hadn't really considered it, and i wonder what would cause that effect

 

My first guess would be changes in measurement/classification.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

And in the meantime he will be contending for the MVP for probably (hopefully) the first maybe 5 years of the deal.

 

If he's contending for the MVP for the first five years of an eight year deal, then I was wrong and I would be down with that. Make it happen!

 

Sarcasm is noticed. Maybe 5 years is a bit of a stretch, and I understand that people don't stay in peak form until age 38 anymore, but Pujols is such a fantastic hitter with an approach that can keep him highly productive despite a decline in bat speed.

 

Hank Aaron: .928 career OPS, .906 OPS ages 35-42

Babe Ruth: 1.164 career OPS, 1.116 OPS ages 35-40

Stan Musial: .976 career OPS, .893 OPS ages 35-42

Ted Williams: 1.116 career OPS, 1.102 OPS ages 35-41

 

Now I realize these are different eras we are talking about and its much harder to get away with declining bat speed in this era (its obviously hard to measure the players from the late 80's/90's era) but the point stands that some of the best hitters this game has ever seen have been able to keep it going well into their late 30's.

 

PS I havent read maybe the last 30 pages of this thread, so if this "declining skills" discussion has been had ad nauseum, I am sorry for likely bringing up stuff already discussed.

 

I apologize if that came off as sarcastic. I was just saying that if you are right about that, then I will be way wrong and would love for that to happen. No disrespect intended.

[SouthSideRyan]

if that's correct, league-wide O-Swing% has in fact increased the last two years, by a substantial margin: 30.1% and 29.3% after hovering right around 25% the previous four years

 

hadn't really considered it, and i wonder what would cause that effect

 

My first guess would be changes in measurement/classification.

 

Beat me to it. A huge jump like that league-wide, and sustained over 2 seasons couldn't be an adjustment to approach.

[mookie]

What is the point of debating this if the Cubs are locking up Pena?

[SouthSideRyan]

What is the point of debating this if the Cubs are locking up Pena?

 

What is the point of this?

[mookie]

Am I wrong in thinking the jump in O-Swing % is pretty heavily correlated to the nasty nasty nasty pitching dominance that has developed over the past few seasons?

[mookie]

What is the point of debating this if the Cubs are locking up Pena?

 

What is the point of this?

 

It was an idle thought. Sadly, it wasn't a shining moment. It was more of a mutter, or an under the breath whispering. I fear I have let myself down today. Today I will make it a point to achieve for higher standards. I will reach for the top. I will climb tall buildings. I will put up the toilet seat. Today I will strive to find this point.

[UMFan83]

And in the meantime he will be contending for the MVP for probably (hopefully) the first maybe 5 years of the deal.

 

If he's contending for the MVP for the first five years of an eight year deal, then I was wrong and I would be down with that. Make it happen!

 

Sarcasm is noticed. Maybe 5 years is a bit of a stretch, and I understand that people don't stay in peak form until age 38 anymore, but Pujols is such a fantastic hitter with an approach that can keep him highly productive despite a decline in bat speed.

 

Hank Aaron: .928 career OPS, .906 OPS ages 35-42

Babe Ruth: 1.164 career OPS, 1.116 OPS ages 35-40

Stan Musial: .976 career OPS, .893 OPS ages 35-42

Ted Williams: 1.116 career OPS, 1.102 OPS ages 35-41

 

Now I realize these are different eras we are talking about and its much harder to get away with declining bat speed in this era (its obviously hard to measure the players from the late 80's/90's era) but the point stands that some of the best hitters this game has ever seen have been able to keep it going well into their late 30's.

 

PS I havent read maybe the last 30 pages of this thread, so if this "declining skills" discussion has been had ad nauseum, I am sorry for likely bringing up stuff already discussed.

 

I apologize if that came off as sarcastic. I was just saying that if you are right about that, then I will be way wrong and would love for that to happen. No disrespect intended.

 

I didn't take it as disrespect. I just thought you were implying that you highly doubt he'll be competing for an MVP for the next 5 years.