Playoff Schedule?

[Ski]

So, I won the chance to be able to purchase Twins playoff tickets directly from the team rather than from Stubhub (saving me a ton of money) but before I buy on Monday, I need to know when they play their homes games. If I'm not mistaken, won't they open at home no matter what? If they have the best record, they'll get home field advantage; if they get second best, they'll still have home field against the AL Wild Card, and the same if they have the 3rd best record. Just want to make sure before I buy.

[Guest]

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/schedule/ps.jsp if you needed exact dates.

 

And yes, assuming the Twins don't nearly every remaining and the Rangers win nearly every remaining game, Minnesota will have home field in the ALDS.

[Ski]

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/schedule/ps.jsp if you needed exact dates.

 

And yes, assuming the Twins don't nearly every remaining and the Rangers win nearly every remaining game, Minnesota will have home field in the ALDS.

That's what I thought, thanks. It sucks, because I'll have to skip five classes (have a ton of Thursday classes) to see the Twins in the playoffs. Worth it, though!

[NCCubFan]

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/schedule/ps.jsp if you needed exact dates.

 

And yes, assuming the Twins don't nearly every remaining and the Rangers win nearly every remaining game, Minnesota will have home field in the ALDS.

In other words, unless the Twins mimic the 2004 Cubs.

[TruffleShuffle]

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/schedule/ps.jsp if you needed exact dates.

 

And yes, assuming the Twins don't nearly every remaining and the Rangers win nearly every remaining game, Minnesota will have home field in the ALDS.

In other words, unless the Twins mimic the 2004 Cubs.

 

more like the 1964 phillies, 1995 angels or 2007 mets. the 2004 cubs melted down but that was nowhere near the worst choke.

[NCCubFan]

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/schedule/ps.jsp if you needed exact dates.

 

And yes, assuming the Twins don't nearly every remaining and the Rangers win nearly every remaining game, Minnesota will have home field in the ALDS.

In other words, unless the Twins mimic the 2004 Cubs.

 

more like the 1964 phillies, 1995 angels or 2007 mets. the 2004 cubs melted down but that was nowhere near the worst choke.

Yeah, those are probably better examples. Especially the 1964 Phillies; usually that is used as the basis of comparison for epic collapses.

[TruffleShuffle]

Yeah, those are probably better examples. Especially the 1964 Phillies; usually that is used as the basis of comparison for epic collapses.

 

nate silver did a BP article detailing the biggest collapses in baseball history. the phillies barely cracked the top 10, because they were playing a strong schedule. i think their collapse was so memorable because they went on a 10 game losing streak and just played terribly for the last two weeks.

 

some notable teams that had bigger collapses:

-1978 red sox (96.5% to make playoffs on august 12th with an 8 game lead on the yankees - red sox went 26-22 the rest of the way while the yanks were 35-13)

-1942 brooklyn dodgers (96.9% to make the playoffs; 79-33, 9.5 games ahead of the Cardinals. went 25-17 the rest of the way while the cardinals were 38-6, the second-best 44 game stretch in baseball history)

-1969 cubs (97.90% on august 19th; 77-45 and 8 games ahead of the mets, went 15-25 down the stretch)

-2003 mariners (97.91% on june 18th, 7.5 games ahead of the A's in the AL west and 8.0 games ahead of the red sox in the wild card; finished 45-47)

-1993 giants (98.25% on august 7th, 74-47 and 9.5 games ahead of the braves, finished 29-22 but braves went 39-11)

-1951 brooklyn dodgers (99.74% on august 12th, 73-36 and 12.5 games ahead of the new york giants, finished 25-24 while giants went 37-8)

-2007 mets (99.8% on september 12th, 83-62 and 7.0 games ahead of the phillies; went 5-12 the rest of the way while the phillies went 13-4. what was notable about the mets' collapse is that they lost to some awful teams - they went 1-5 against the nationals during that stretch and lost 2 out of 3 in their last series against the marlins)

-1995 angels (99.988% on august 20th, 66-41 and 9.5 games ahead of the rangers and 12.5 games ahead of the mariners in the AL west, 12.0 games ahead of the yankees for the wild card. finished 12-26. the odds of them missing the playoffs were 8,332-to-1)

[illiniguy]

Yeah, those are probably better examples. Especially the 1964 Phillies; usually that is used as the basis of comparison for epic collapses.

 

nate silver did a BP article detailing the biggest collapses in baseball history. the phillies barely cracked the top 10, because they were playing a strong schedule. i think their collapse was so memorable because they went on a 10 game losing streak and just played terribly for the last two weeks.

 

some notable teams that had bigger collapses:

-1978 red sox (96.5% to make playoffs on august 12th with an 8 game lead on the yankees - red sox went 26-22 the rest of the way while the yanks were 35-13)

-1942 brooklyn dodgers (96.9% to make the playoffs; 79-33, 9.5 games ahead of the Cardinals. went 25-17 the rest of the way while the cardinals were 38-6, the second-best 44 game stretch in baseball history)

-1969 cubs (97.90% on august 19th; 77-45 and 8 games ahead of the mets, went 15-25 down the stretch)

-2003 mariners (97.91% on june 18th, 7.5 games ahead of the A's in the AL west and 8.0 games ahead of the red sox in the wild card; finished 45-47)

-1993 giants (98.25% on august 7th, 74-47 and 9.5 games ahead of the braves, finished 29-22 but braves went 39-11)

-1951 brooklyn dodgers (99.74% on august 12th, 73-36 and 12.5 games ahead of the new york giants, finished 25-24 while giants went 37-8)

-2007 mets (99.8% on september 12th, 83-62 and 7.0 games ahead of the phillies; went 5-12 the rest of the way while the phillies went 13-4. what was notable about the mets' collapse is that they lost to some awful teams - they went 1-5 against the nationals during that stretch and lost 2 out of 3 in their last series against the marlins)

-1995 angels (99.988% on august 20th, 66-41 and 9.5 games ahead of the rangers and 12.5 games ahead of the mariners in the AL west, 12.0 games ahead of the yankees for the wild card. finished 12-26. the odds of them missing the playoffs were 8,332-to-1)[/quote]

Only to the Cubs

[SpongeWorthy]

Yeah, those are probably better examples. Especially the 1964 Phillies; usually that is used as the basis of comparison for epic collapses.

 

nate silver did a BP article detailing the biggest collapses in baseball history. the phillies barely cracked the top 10, because they were playing a strong schedule. i think their collapse was so memorable because they went on a 10 game losing streak and just played terribly for the last two weeks.

 

some notable teams that had bigger collapses:

-1978 red sox (96.5% to make playoffs on august 12th with an 8 game lead on the yankees - red sox went 26-22 the rest of the way while the yanks were 35-13)

-1942 brooklyn dodgers (96.9% to make the playoffs; 79-33, 9.5 games ahead of the Cardinals. went 25-17 the rest of the way while the cardinals were 38-6, the second-best 44 game stretch in baseball history)

-1969 cubs (97.90% on august 19th; 77-45 and 8 games ahead of the mets, went 15-25 down the stretch)

-2003 mariners (97.91% on june 18th, 7.5 games ahead of the A's in the AL west and 8.0 games ahead of the red sox in the wild card; finished 45-47)

-1993 giants (98.25% on august 7th, 74-47 and 9.5 games ahead of the braves, finished 29-22 but braves went 39-11)

-1951 brooklyn dodgers (99.74% on august 12th, 73-36 and 12.5 games ahead of the new york giants, finished 25-24 while giants went 37-8)

-2007 mets (99.8% on september 12th, 83-62 and 7.0 games ahead of the phillies; went 5-12 the rest of the way while the phillies went 13-4. what was notable about the mets' collapse is that they lost to some awful teams - they went 1-5 against the nationals during that stretch and lost 2 out of 3 in their last series against the marlins)

-1995 angels (99.988% on august 20th, 66-41 and 9.5 games ahead of the rangers and 12.5 games ahead of the mariners in the AL west, 12.0 games ahead of the yankees for the wild card. finished 12-26. the odds of them missing the playoffs were 8,332-to-1)

 

That seems like there are far too many instances of those collapses happening for those percentages to be accurate. Statistically, the 1995 Angels shouldn't have even happened once in MLB history and you've got 7 other collapses where the odds were over 96.5%.

[TruffleShuffle]

That seems like there are far too many instances of those collapses happening for those percentages to be accurate. Statistically, the 1995 Angels shouldn't have even happened once in MLB history and you've got 7 other collapses where the odds were over 96.5%.

 

baseball history goes back over 100 years and there are many races every year, especially with divisional play and wild card added in. plus those probabilities aren't really THAT unlikely - a team with a 98% chance to make the playoffs will blow it, on average, 1 in 50 times. how many times in baseball history has a team had a 98% chance of making the playoffs? probably happens every year.

 

"Statistically, the 1995 Angels shouldn't have even happened once in MLB history" is a complete misunderstanding of probability theory.

[SpongeWorthy]

That seems like there are far too many instances of those collapses happening for those percentages to be accurate. Statistically, the 1995 Angels shouldn't have even happened once in MLB history and you've got 7 other collapses where the odds were over 96.5%.

 

baseball history goes back over 100 years and there are many races every year, especially with divisional play and wild card added in. plus those probabilities aren't really THAT unlikely - a team with a 98% chance to make the playoffs will blow it, on average, 1 in 50 times. how many times in baseball history has a team had a 98% chance of making the playoffs? probably happens every year.

 

"Statistically, the 1995 Angels shouldn't have even happened once in MLB history" is a complete misunderstanding of probability theory.

 

Shouldn't is a bad word choice but you would not expect a team with a 99.988% chance of making the playoffs to have ever missed the playoffs based on how many seasons there have been in baseball. There were only 2 races a year until 1969, 4 from 1969-1995, and 8 since 1995. The odds of hitting a 8300+ to 1 shot in that period is still pretty small. And then you factor in all the other collapses, I'm skeptical that the model holds up very well when you're talking about late season collapses.

 

I'm guessing there are some psychological/panic factors that kick in once you're blowing the season and the model doesn't capture that very well.

[ScrubMD]

I don't know enough about how the playoffs work. If the Giants and Reds end up with the same records, who gets the higher seed? I'm hoping to go to one of the games in Cincinnati but there's only one date I could go and I'm trying to figure this ish out.

[ScrubMD]

I don't know enough about how the playoffs work. If the Giants and Reds end up with the same records, who gets the higher seed? I'm hoping to go to one of the games in Cincinnati but there's only one date I could go and I'm trying to figure this ish out.

 

 

Nevermind, Thom Brenneman just answered my question. The only way the Reds can get homefield is if they win out and SD loses tonight then sweeps the Giants. Good news for me.

[Ski]

Alright, so I got picked to buy ALCS tickets if the Twins make it, so just want to verify this again. If the Twins have a worse record than the AL East winner, the only way they would have home field in the ALCS is if they play the Rangers, correct?

[bcl412]

Alright, so I got picked to buy ALCS tickets if the Twins make it, so just want to verify this again. If the Twins have a worse record than the AL East winner, the only way they would have home field in the ALCS is if they play the Rangers, correct?

 

They would if they played the wild card winner as well.

 

Edit: Except they'll play them in the ALDS so never mind.

[J.R.]

Fantastic finish in SF.

 

I can smell the three way tie from here.

[erik316wttn]

Fantastic finish in SF.

 

I can smell the three way tie from here.

 

So what's the scenario if all 3 tie?

[Ski]

Giants play Padres in playoff game for NL West, loser plays Atlanta for wild card.