What's with Dunn's walk total?

[Butterscup1679666578]

He's still having an outstanding year, but his walk total is way down.

 

Career

2001 (66 games) - 38

2002 (158 games) - 128

2003 (116 games) - 74

2004 (161 games) - 108

2005 (160 games) - 114

2006 (160 games) - 112

2007 (152 games) - 101

2008 (158 games) - 122

2009 (159 games) - 116

2010 (108 games) - 48

 

His career OBP is .382, and the lowest he had in any season was .354 in 2003, which was his worst season ever. This year it's .364. Obviously still great, but nothing like his near-.400 OBPs the last couple of seasons. Is this a concern going forward, or is it just an anomaly? I think he should be the Cubs' top FA priority next year.

[Guest]

Somebody correct me if I'm not interpreting the numbers in the right way, but it seems like he's swinging and missing at more pitches and not being quite as patient at the plate, though he's still much better than the average hitter in that area.

 

According to B-R, his strike looking percentage is at a career low while his strike swinging percentage is at a career high. He's seeing the fewest pitches per plate appearance (4.09, down from 4.32 each of the past two years) of his career and only 20% of his K's have been looking, also a career-low.

 

He's currently posting career highs in BA, SLG and OPS but his BABIP is .343, nearly 50 points better than his career average.

[Bote McBoteface]

Could it just be that the players around him are so crappy that pitchers just go right after him?

[Butterscup1679666578]

Could it just be that the players around him are so crappy that pitchers just go right after him?

 

They were always crappy in Cincinnati too.

[Butterscup1679666578]

Somebody correct me if I'm not interpreting the numbers in the right way, but it seems like he's swinging and missing at more pitches and not being quite as patient at the plate, though he's still much better than the average hitter in that area.

 

According to B-R, his strike looking percentage is at a career low while his strike swinging percentage is at a career high. He's seeing the fewest pitches per plate appearance (4.09, down from 4.32 each of the past two years) of his career and only 20% of his K's have been looking, also a career-low.

 

He's currently posting career highs in BA, SLG and OPS but his BABIP is .343, nearly 50 points better than his career average.

 

Interesting stuff. Thanks for posting.

[Guest]

Could it just be that the players around him are so crappy that pitchers just go right after him?

 

Willingham and Zimmerman are killing the ball this year.

[imb]

same token: what happened to pablo sandova's everything

[davearm2]

Could it just be that the players around him are so crappy that pitchers just go right after him?

In theory, a crappy lineup should have the opposite effect. No sense in pitching to the one good guy if the rest blow.

[chopsx9]

Somebody correct me if I'm not interpreting the numbers in the right way, but it seems like he's swinging and missing at more pitches and not being quite as patient at the plate, though he's still much better than the average hitter in that area.

 

According to B-R, his strike looking percentage is at a career low while his strike swinging percentage is at a career high. He's seeing the fewest pitches per plate appearance (4.09, down from 4.32 each of the past two years) of his career and only 20% of his K's have been looking, also a career-low.

 

He's currently posting career highs in BA, SLG and OPS but his BABIP is .343, nearly 50 points better than his career average.

 

 

One of the knocks against him was he was too passive; taking too many pitches that were strikes. Which I would assume was responsible for the high K's looking.

 

It looks like he is being more agressive; hence the high swinging strikes. He's on track for his most hrs in awhile - granted not by a whole lot, and he's streaky enough that projections can be iffy, but his overall extra base hits are up pretty significantly.

[UMFan83]

same token: what happened to pablo sandova's everything

 

Seriously. I thought he was going to take it to another level this year. I guess I was right in that respect.

[lumafia]

Somebody correct me if I'm not interpreting the numbers in the right way, but it seems like he's swinging and missing at more pitches and not being quite as patient at the plate, though he's still much better than the average hitter in that area.

 

According to B-R, his strike looking percentage is at a career low while his strike swinging percentage is at a career high. He's seeing the fewest pitches per plate appearance (4.09, down from 4.32 each of the past two years) of his career and only 20% of his K's have been looking, also a career-low.

 

He's currently posting career highs in BA, SLG and OPS but his BABIP is .343, nearly 50 points better than his career average.

 

 

One of the knocks against him was he was too passive; taking too many pitches that were strikes. Which I would assume was responsible for the high K's looking.

 

It looks like he is being more agressive; hence the high swinging strikes. He's on track for his most hrs in awhile - granted not by a whole lot, and he's streaky enough that projections can be iffy, but his overall extra base hits are up pretty significantly.

 

Lots of players in baseball are "statistically aggressive".

 

1. Balls swung and missed outside of the strike zone are up 4% from last year. That % had held very steady (25%) for the 3 years prior.

2. The % of pitches seen inside the strike zone is down 3% from last year. Pitchers are throwing the ball in the strike zone less often. Again, a % that was formerly very consistent.

3. The % of time an MLB hitter makes contact with a ball thrown outside of the strike zone is up almost exactly 5%. Once again, a number that has been very consistent over the last 5 years.

 

These 3 things appear to show that all hitters are being more aggressive, not just Adam Dunn. The funny thing is that I don't know why. Why would hitters suddenly start swinging at everything?

[Guest]

Somebody correct me if I'm not interpreting the numbers in the right way, but it seems like he's swinging and missing at more pitches and not being quite as patient at the plate, though he's still much better than the average hitter in that area.

 

According to B-R, his strike looking percentage is at a career low while his strike swinging percentage is at a career high. He's seeing the fewest pitches per plate appearance (4.09, down from 4.32 each of the past two years) of his career and only 20% of his K's have been looking, also a career-low.

 

He's currently posting career highs in BA, SLG and OPS but his BABIP is .343, nearly 50 points better than his career average.

 

 

One of the knocks against him was he was too passive; taking too many pitches that were strikes. Which I would assume was responsible for the high K's looking.

 

It looks like he is being more agressive; hence the high swinging strikes. He's on track for his most hrs in awhile - granted not by a whole lot, and he's streaky enough that projections can be iffy, but his overall extra base hits are up pretty significantly.

 

Lots of players in baseball are "statistically aggressive".

 

1. Balls swung and missed outside of the strike zone are up 4% from last year. That % had held very steady (25%) for the 3 years prior.

2. The % of pitches seen inside the strike zone is down 3% from last year. Pitchers are throwing the ball in the strike zone less often. Again, a % that was formerly very consistent.

3. The % of time an MLB hitter makes contact with a ball thrown outside of the strike zone is up almost exactly 5%. Once again, a number that has been very consistent over the last 5 years.

 

These 3 things appear to show that all hitters are being more aggressive, not just Adam Dunn. The funny thing is that I don't know why. Why would hitters suddenly start swinging at everything?

I don't about everybody, but Dunn has been criticized for years by the meathead writers and "baseball men" for not being aggressive enough. Maybe he's trying to fit in the mold so he can cash in before he's too old.

 

The other thing is that we don't know what the standard deviation is from year to year. All those things you posted could be true but they could all be well within the normal "bounce" levels from year to year. The point being, they aren't anomalies as much as they are distribution frequencies within "normal" ranges.