45 games in the books. Where do we stand?

[J.R.]

With yesterday's win over Texas in Game 45, the Cubs stand at 21-24 (-5 RD.) 117 games remain.

 

100 wins would take 79-38 (.675) from here on.

95 wins would take 74-43 (.632).

90 wins would take 69-48 (.590).

85 wins would take 64-53 (.547).

81 wins would take 60-57 (.512).

 

In 2009, the Cubs were 23-22 after Game 45. They went 60-56 (.517) through their remaining 116 games.

 

In 2008, the Cubs were 28-17 after Game 45. They went 69-47 (.595) through their remaining 116 games.

 

In 2007, the Cubs were 21-24 after Game 45. They went 64-53 (.547) through their remaining 117 games.

 

The latest BP postseason odds report pegs the average wins for the NL Central champ at 94. The average wins for the NL Wild Card stands at 92.

 

BP predicts the Cubs will finish at 81-81. They have the Cardinals at 90-72, and Cincinnati at 87-75.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I think 90 wins is a possibility for this team. Anything higher is probably a dream.

[erik316wttn]

I think 90 wins is a possibility for this team. Anything higher is probably a dream.

 

I think 85 is about as good as it will get, and that means the bullpen has to stop sucking and Lee and Rammy start hitting.

[David]

I think 90 wins is a possibility for this team. Anything higher is probably a dream.

 

I think 85 is about as good as it will get, and that means the bullpen has to stop sucking and Lee and Rammy start hitting.

 

 

If that actually happened, I could see 90 wins fairly easily.

[BigbadB1679666149]

I don't think 90 is doable, but somewhere between 85-88 is possible.

[Soul]

I still believe ARam and Lee will start hitting.

 

It's a long slump for ARam, and a typical slow start for Lee, IMO.

[CubColtPacer]

I think 90 wins is a possibility for this team. Anything higher is probably a dream.

 

I think 85 is about as good as it will get, and that means the bullpen has to stop sucking and Lee and Rammy start hitting.

 

 

If that actually happened, I could see 90 wins fairly easily.

 

I'm not sure about fairly easily, but I agree mostly with the point. I could see the Cubs go on a 90-95 win pace the rest of the season if that happened. A 93 win pace for the rest of the season would give them 88 wins overall. That could definitely happen.

 

This team could do a few things to help themselves. Giving Fontenot more of the playing time at 2nd would help as apparently the swing changes he's made has made him a low strikeout line drive hitter. It's hard to say that a .309 hitter has actually been unlucky with balls in play, but Fontenot has so far. I'm not sure I see him continuing this exactly, but right now Fontneot looks like a Theriot clone with more upside.

 

Moving Ramirez down at this point is probably warranted. It's been long enough for him and Soriano that at least swapping the two of them right now seems like the right thing to do.

 

Castro apparently might be seeing some more time in the 2 spot in the order even against right-handed pitching. He's also probably a Theriot clone with more upside right now so he's a better fit for the 2 spot than Theriot is.

 

As for the bullpen, it will partially depend on how this 6 starter thing shakes out. I have no idea what will happen there and a trade or a movement of one of the starters there could provide the 3rd good arm the bullpen needs.

[dew1679666265]

I think 90 wins is a possibility for this team. Anything higher is probably a dream.

 

I think 85 is about as good as it will get, and that means the bullpen has to stop sucking and Lee and Rammy start hitting.

 

 

If that actually happened, I could see 90 wins fairly easily.

 

Yeah, assuming no other big dropoffs we'd have a good chance at 90 wins with bullpen improvement and Lee and Aramis hitting well.

 

That said, I think 90 is the very high end for this team. I thought 85-88 wins was the likely result of the year before the season started and I haven't really seen anything to change my mind. I figure we'll need 88-90 to grab the wild card, though, so I hope I'm underestimating my record prediction.

[BeerHere]

.500 is my guess

 

Lee and Ramirez have shown tiny glimpses of coming out of it but nothing sustained. I don't expect Soriano, Byrd and Theriot to hit .320 all season and Silva will cool off as well. 90 wins would be great but I highly doubt it.

[KaiserCesar]

To break 90, we're going to need to see Lee hit and some production out of 3B with some infusion of talent mid-late year in the bullpen that performs well, whether that be Cashner, Jackson, Parker or whoever. There's no easy acquisition at any position that would improve the team any more than a fraction of a game, so we just have to hope everyone performs to their abilities and we get a bit lucky.

[treebird]

i said 75 wins before the season, and i'm thinking that still looks about right.

[Yeti]

best case scenario 80-82

 

i was actually a bit more optimistic at the beginning of the season, when i had them at 85-77