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Likelies, Possibles & Got-A-Chances


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These are players that are likely to be good at the big league level, possible or have a slight chance. This is based on what we currently know about their ceiling and what they've proven about their ability to reach it. And of course, we're talking about minor leaguers here, so let's take it for granted that it's too soon to tell for all of them.

 

Likely

SS Starlin Castro

 

Possible

SP Andrew Cashner (He's close to being a likely, but not there yet)

CF Brett Jackson

3B Josh Vitters

SP Jay Jackson

SS Hak-Ju Lee

 

Got-A-Chance

SP Casey Coleman

2B Ryan Flaherty

2B DJ LeMahieu

RF Kyler Burke

SP Brooks Raley

SP Dae-Eun Rhee

SP Ken McNutt

SP Ryan Searle

 

Worth Tracking

SS Wes Darvill

2B Logan Watkins

SP Alberto Cabrera

SP Chris Archer

SP Rafael Dolis

RP Aaron Shafer

IF Matt Cerda

SP Jeffry Antigua

SP Su-Ming Jung

SP Austin Kirk

SP Chris Rusin

OF Jesus Morelli

SS Junior Lake

 

As we learn more, guys will be added and dropped from this list I'm sure. Who am I forgetting? Overrating? Underrating?

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You're forgetting Chris Carpenter.

 

I think you're overrating Shafer and probably Rusin.

 

If you're willing to add guys like Darvill and Kirk to the "worth tracking" list, you probably want to add pitcher John Mincone and Korean bonus baby OFs Dong-Yub Kim and Kyung-Min Na.

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You're forgetting Chris Carpenter.

 

I think you're overrating Shafer and probably Rusin.

 

If you're willing to add guys like Darvill and Kirk to the "worth tracking" list, you probably want to add pitcher John Mincone and Korean bonus baby OFs Dong-Yub Kim and Kyung-Min Na.

Carpenter. Of course.

 

Where would you rank him?

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You're forgetting Chris Carpenter.

 

I think you're overrating Shafer and probably Rusin.

 

If you're willing to add guys like Darvill and Kirk to the "worth tracking" list, you probably want to add pitcher John Mincone and Korean bonus baby OFs Dong-Yub Kim and Kyung-Min Na.

Carpenter. Of course.

 

Where would you rank him?

 

I'm not sure because it seems like the differences in categories are a bit subjective and probably based on semantics. :)

 

With Carpenter, the injury problems are a huge red flag (and his control problems the second concern). He's definitely behind Cashner (who has a higher ceiling and is more likely to achieve it) and Jackson (who is more likely to reach his ceiling). I'd put him just ahead of Coleman in the "Got-A-Chance" category. Thankfully, it doesn't seem like the shoulder soreness he has had to start this season is that severe.

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Where would you rank him?

 

I'm not sure because it seems like the differences in categories are a bit subjective and probably based on semantics. :)

It's totally subjective and completely because of semantics. I knew what I meant. What's your problem, can't you read my mind?

 

Basically, this is our current evaluation on a player's chances of being, at the very least, a good, starting major leaguer. They could wind up being more than that, but what I am looking at is what are their chances of being an average to above average starting position player or starting pitcher in the bigs. (I guess I'll accept closer as a key contributing position, but bench players and the rest of the bullpen aren't what I'm talking about with this list.)

 

Obviously, in order to determine someone's likelihood of becoming a good, starting major leaguer, we're looking at their perceived ceilings and what they've shown us about their ability to reach them. But I think we were on the same page with that.

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  • 1 month later...

Castro has joined Colvin at the major league level. They both have been surprisingly steady producers. After Cashner's latest start, I'm willing to put him in the "likely" category. How long before he's called up? A year? A couple months?

 

Likely

SP Andrew Cashner

 

Possible

CF Brett Jackson

3B Josh Vitters

SP Jay Jackson

SS Hak-Ju Lee

 

Got-A-Chance

SP Chris Carpenter

SP Casey Coleman

2B Ryan Flaherty

2B DJ LeMahieu

RF Kyler Burke

SP Ken McNutt

RP Larry Suarez (Quietly living up to his early hype this season)

 

 

Worth Tracking

C Robinson Chirinos (Turns 26 in a few weeks but is tearing up AA)

SP Ryan Searle

RP John Mincone

OF Dong-Yub Kim

OF Kyung-Min Na

SP Brooks Raley

SP Dae-Eun Rhee

SS Wes Darvill

2B Logan Watkins

SP Alberto Cabrera

SP Chris Archer

SP Rafael Dolis

RP Aaron Shafer

IF Matt Cerda

SP Jeffry Antigua

SP Su-Ming Jung

SP Austin Kirk

SP Chris Rusin

OF Jesus Morelli

SS Junior Lake

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When you say be "good" at teh big league level, do you mean be star players, be productive players, IE Ryan Theriot, or stick round the league for a while due to defensive skill or their teams not botheing to replace them with a free agent who may or may not be a slught upgrade IE Nick Punto.

 

Either way, I think Jay Jackson belongs in the likely catagory, the question is as a starter or reliever. Also, I think that Tony Campana and Matt Spencer belong in the got a chance catagory, and Darwin Barney and Wellington Castillo both appear major league ready, although they''ll probably end up as back up players. Also, Thomas Diamond is in the possible catagory, although he may not end up with us. Oliver Martinez also seems worth tracking.

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wellington castillo is major league ready???

 

Ill be honest, I dont know anything about his defensive skills, but offensively, hed probably do what your average backup C does. Next year If rather just give him the job rather than pay Koyie Hill or someone similar $1 mil or more.

 

the book on him defensively is that he has good skills but makes too many mistakes. he had a .275 OBP last year in AA. he's off to a better start this year offensively, but i don't know that he's a better option next year than robinson chirinos (though i don't know if chirinos has progressed enough defensively).

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wellington castillo is major league ready???

 

Ill be honest, I dont know anything about his defensive skills, but offensively, hed probably do what your average backup C does. Next year If rather just give him the job rather than pay Koyie Hill or someone similar $1 mil or more.

 

the book on him defensively is that he has good skills but makes too many mistakes. he had a .275 OBP last year in AA. he's off to a better start this year offensively, but i don't know that he's a better option next year than robinson chirinos (though i don't know if chirinos has progressed enough defensively).

 

As good as Chirinos offensive numbers have been the past few years, I have to think that defense is whats keepin him back.

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When you say be "good" at teh big league level, do you mean be star players, be productive players, IE Ryan Theriot, or stick round the league for a while due to defensive skill or their teams not botheing to replace them with a free agent who may or may not be a slught upgrade IE Nick Punto.

 

Either way, I think Jay Jackson belongs in the likely catagory, the question is as a starter or reliever. Also, I think that Tony Campana and Matt Spencer belong in the got a chance catagory, and Darwin Barney and Wellington Castillo both appear major league ready, although they''ll probably end up as back up players. Also, Thomas Diamond is in the possible catagory, although he may not end up with us. Oliver Martinez also seems worth tracking.

In a previous post I answered that by saying they would need to be likely, possible or have a slight chance of being at least an average to slightly above average starter in the bigs, and by starter I mean a starting position player, starting pitcher in the rotation or possible closer. Reserve position players and bullpen filler are not what we're talking about here. So they must have a high enough ceiling and be showing us in their current or recent past performance that they can reach that ceiling.

 

For that reason, I can't see putting Campana on the list. He's got the stick, but it's a light stick and to be at the very least an average starting OFer, you've got to have some power. His ceiling tops out right now as a reserve. Castillo could be put into the "worth following" category in your list, but he hasn't earned that distinction for me yet. Until he starts hitting AA/AAA pitching consistently and the reports on his defense also show consistent effort, he also tops out as a reserve. I'm close to putting Thomas Diamond on the list somewhere, but I need to see more. I'm still searching for a scouting report on him. And I'm close to putting Darwin Barney somewhere on the list, but I waiting for him to distinguish himself as a starter at the major league level, much less an average to above average one. For me, he's hasn't done that yet. But I can see someone making an argument for putting him on their list somewhere. As far as Oswaldo Martinez, he was signed out of the Mexican League last season as a starter and converted to a reliever. I see his ceiling as a bullpen filler at best. He doesn't strike me as a closer. I haven't heard of him possessing an overpowering pitch of any kind. Until I hear differently, I'll leave him off. But that's the beauty of a minor league discussion board, your list can be totally differently.

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wellington castillo is major league ready???

 

Ill be honest, I dont know anything about his defensive skills, but offensively, hed probably do what your average backup C does. Next year If rather just give him the job rather than pay Koyie Hill or someone similar $1 mil or more.

 

the book on him defensively is that he has good skills but makes too many mistakes. he had a .275 OBP last year in AA. he's off to a better start this year offensively, but i don't know that he's a better option next year than robinson chirinos (though i don't know if chirinos has progressed enough defensively).

 

As good as Chirinos offensive numbers have been the past few years, I have to think that defense is whats keepin him back.

IIRC, BA listed him as the Cubs best defensive catcher last season. He's a converted infielder who is still learning the position so BA's choice was surprising. He has bounced around A ball and AA ball for years, and just now is his bat coming around. But it's coming around in a big way. And at 25 (about to turn 26), he better be able to hit AA pitching if he's going to have a chance at making the bigs. If he were anything other than a catcher, I'd be looking at him as a Jake Fox/Micah Hoffpauir type reserve, but if his catching skills are truly the best in the organization as BA says and his bat translates to the bigs, he's got a shot, remote as it may be, at being an average starting catcher in the major leagues.

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