Re: Math Geek's predictions

[BigbadB]

Found this on Foxsports.com:

 

AL East: Yankees — 103-59; Rays — 93-69; Red Sox — 92-70; Orioles — 71-91; Blue Jays — 70-92.

 

AL Central: Twins — 92-70; White Sox — 85-77; Tigers — 74-88; Royals — 72-90; Indians — 67-95.

 

AL West: Rangers — 82-80; A's — 81-81; Angels — 80-82; Mariners — 77-85.

 

NL East: Phillies — 90-72; Braves — 88-74; Mets — 82-80; Marlins — 76-86; Nationals — 72-90;

 

NL Central: Cards — 91-71; Cubs — 86-76; Brewers — 78-84; Reds — 74-88; Astros — 73-89; Pirates — 66-96.

 

NL West: Dodgers — 88-74; Diamondbacks — 85-77; Rockies — 84-78; Giants — 80-82; Padres — 77-85.

 

 

He uses some formula that he made up. Nothing too earth-shattering about most of the predictions, but I found both the AL West and NL West interesting. In the AL West picking the A's to finish 2nd and the Mainers 4th (although the division is very close) seems wrong. In the NL West, I would question picking the Diamondbacks ahead of the Rockies and Giants.

[Eephus Speed]

FWIW, which may not be much, I take issue with a lot of those predictions.

 

No way the Twins win 92 and I think his AL West predictions are really screwy. I don't think the Angels are going to be the .500 team that several projection systems are forecasting them to be. They probably won't win 97 like last year, but that's still a damn good team. A full year of Kazmir plus Pineiro (even with regression) should more than make up for the loss of Lackey. Figgins was great last year, and losing him certainly hurts...but Brandon Wood isn't hopeless.

 

I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see Boston or Tampa win the AL East. I won't be surprised if New York wins it, but I think those 3 teams will be bunched pretty closely.

 

I think the Reds are more likely to win 84 than 74. Bruce, Votto, Rolen, Phillips, good defense, pretty solid rotation even without Volquez, and several reliable relievers. That's not a bad team there in Cincinnati. His other NL Central predictions aren't unreasonable, but I think the Brewers will be a few games better.

 

I actually like his NL West predictions, though I'd switch Arizona and Colorado. Arizona, though, should be one of the most improved teams in baseball. San Fran's offense is so crappy that 80 wins doesn't seem unreasonable to me--in spite of their impressive rotation.

[Guest]

I'd pencil the Phillies in as the only 100 win team this year. The Yankees are good, but that division is solid. Baltimore should be improved this year. I just don't think the Yankees can win 100 in that division.

[wvcbxl]

Curiosity question: with the unbalanced schedule and all, has this 'math geek' checked if these predictions are even mathematically possible within the 2010 playing schedule or is this one of these averaged out Monte Carlo simulation thingies?

[Guest]

Curiosity question: with the unbalanced schedule and all, has this 'math geek' checked if these predictions are even mathematically possible within the 2010 playing schedule or is this one of these averaged out Monte Carlo simulation thingies?

 

By my calculations, he has 2429 wins and 2431 losses, so one particular baseball game will feature two losers and no winners. I want to go to that game.

 

Oh, and math geek= Epic Fail!

[wvcbxl]

By my calculations, he has 2429 wins and 2431 losses, so one particular baseball game will feature two losers and no winners. I want to go to that game.

 

:-)) :-)) :-))

[NonProfitCow]

By my calculations, he has 2429 wins and 2431 losses, so one particular baseball game will feature two losers and no winners. I want to go to that game.

 

Do the Royals play the Nationals this year?

[bukie]

By my calculations, he has 2429 wins and 2431 losses, so one particular baseball game will feature two losers and no winners. I want to go to that game.

 

Do the Royals play the Nationals this year?

In this instance, every fan in attendance is a loser. So, 2 sounds about right.

[Jake]

By my calculations, he has 2429 wins and 2431 losses, so one particular baseball game will feature two losers and no winners. I want to go to that game.

 

Pirates @ Washington, June 8.

[Guest]

By my calculations, he has 2429 wins and 2431 losses, so one particular baseball game will feature two losers and no winners. I want to go to that game.

 

Pirates @ Washington, June 8.

 

Okay, I lied. I do not want to go to that game.

[Maclowery]

Sure you do. That's the game where the Pirates' front office allows a randomly selected Cubs fan in the stands to choose any Pirate to be traded to the Cubs sometime before the trade deadline. The Pirates would receive two middling prospects pegged as eventual AAAA relievers and/or backup MI's.

 

That fan could be you!