Byrd/Soriano to hit 5/6

[Butterscup1679666578]

soriano and soto won't rebound so it won't matter much anyways.

 

with neutral luck, soto would have been over an .800 OPS last season, sooooooo

 

yeah but he's on the cubs so he has cubs luck.

 

and this year he'll be too skinny and have no power, so i'm not holding my breath.

 

he didn't have cubs luck in 2008?

 

and lol @ the too skinny part.

 

2008 was a fluke. blind squirrel, nut, etc.

 

he probably lost all of his muscle in that 40 pounds he lost. it's going to be a terrible year.

[Guest]

Geo looked ripped, just lost all the fat.

[Cubbie Swagger]

I just hope Soriano never hits first in our lineup again, no matter how many homers he hits. And I am confident Soto will rebound... so I would not hit him 8th. Assuming Soto doesn't suck anymore... this would be my lineup:

 

1. Fukudome

2. Theriot

3. Lee

4. Ramirez

5. Soto/Soriano

6. Soto/Soriano

7. Byrd

8. Fontenot/Baker

 

I would flip-flop Soto and Soriano depending on how well they do.

[Sammy Sofa]

Yeah, Soriano hitting well and hitting #1 would just be the worst thing in the world. Imagine the horror if Ryan Theriot got less AB's.

[Skyballer]

I have yet to really take a side on the lead off idea. On paper I like the idea of getting your best hitter the most AB's and going down in the lineup from there. But I wonder how this breaks down game by game when at most (assuming no one is replaced) your lead off hitter can only get one more AB per game. To me when you consider that it makes a little more sense to be a bit more traditional. That is assuming your lead off hitter is actually a good hitter in addition to being quick on the base paths and drawing walks, working the count etc...

 

I'm still not convinced one way or the other but to me the simple AB idea is at least slightly flawed when breaking it down game by game.

[Rob]

I have yet to really take a side on the lead off idea. On paper I like the idea of getting your best hitter the most AB's and going down in the lineup from there. But I wonder how this breaks down game by game when at most (assuming no one is replaced) your lead off hitter can only get one more AB per game. To me when you consider that it makes a little more sense to be a bit more traditional. That is assuming your lead off hitter is actually a good hitter in addition to being quick on the base paths and drawing walks, working the count etc...

 

I'm still not convinced one way or the other but to me the simple AB idea is at least slightly flawed when breaking it down game by game.

 

Generally speaking, each spot in the batting order comes up about 20 more times per season than the one behind it. Therefore, moving a guy who isn't one of your better hitters up in the order costs each person he leapfrogs about 20 PA. Do you really think micromanaging a few hit and runs and sac bunts with Theriot in the 2 spot is worth costing DLee, Aramis, Byrd, Soriano, and Soto about 20 PA each?

 

I'll grant it's a little more complicated than that, obviously. There are real benefits to splitting up lefties who struggle against same side pitching. OBP should be valued a bit higher in a few spots, SLUG in others. And of course, speed does play a role in things (though ironically, it's more suited towards the bottom of your lineup where you're less likely to have guys able to slug you in from first base). But the general principle remains the same... if you want your lineup to do the most damage possible, you need to have the guys who do most of that damage coming to the plate as often as possible.

[weis21]

On paper I like the idea of getting your best hitter the most AB's and going down in the lineup from there.

 

Did you plagiarize this after you saw it on paper?

[Derwood]

The argument against Soriano leading off is that his batting position will most often come up with no one on base (leading off the game/batting behind the 7-9 hitters).

 

If you're happy with 30 HR, 85 RBI, that's great, but you'd normally like your power hitters/run producers to hit with people on base

[jersey cubs fan]

Yeah, Soriano hitting well and hitting #1 would just be the worst thing in the world. Imagine the horror if Ryan Theriot got less AB's.

 

There's a difference between Soriano hitting and Soriano hitting well.

[bukie]

The argument against Soriano leading off is that his batting position will most often come up with no one on base (leading off the game/batting behind the 7-9 hitters).

 

If you're happy with 30 HR, 85 RBI, that's great, but you'd normally like your power hitters/run producers to hit with people on base

The argument for having your better hitters batting earlier is that you'd normally like your better hitters getting more plate appearances than a guy who can "move the runners over". I don't think there's any argument that when Soriano is hitting well, he's a better hitter than Theriot.

[jersey cubs fan]

The argument against Soriano leading off is that his batting position will most often come up with no one on base (leading off the game/batting behind the 7-9 hitters).

 

If you're happy with 30 HR, 85 RBI, that's great, but you'd normally like your power hitters/run producers to hit with people on base

The argument for having your better hitters batting earlier is that you'd normally like your better hitters getting more plate appearances than a guy who can "move the runners over". I don't think there's any argument that when Soriano is hitting well, he's a better hitter than Theriot.

 

But he's not the Cubs best hitter so why should he bat 1st and not Ramirez or Lee?

[bukie]

The argument against Soriano leading off is that his batting position will most often come up with no one on base (leading off the game/batting behind the 7-9 hitters).

 

If you're happy with 30 HR, 85 RBI, that's great, but you'd normally like your power hitters/run producers to hit with people on base

The argument for having your better hitters batting earlier is that you'd normally like your better hitters getting more plate appearances than a guy who can "move the runners over". I don't think there's any argument that when Soriano is hitting well, he's a better hitter than Theriot.

 

But he's not the Cubs best hitter so why should he bat 1st and not Ramirez or Lee?

That's a different argument, though. I'd be all in favor of moving Lee and Ramirez up. I'd much rather see Fukudome-Lee-Ramirez than Fukudome-Theriot-Lee-Ramirez.

[jersey cubs fan]

The argument against Soriano leading off is that his batting position will most often come up with no one on base (leading off the game/batting behind the 7-9 hitters).

 

If you're happy with 30 HR, 85 RBI, that's great, but you'd normally like your power hitters/run producers to hit with people on base

The argument for having your better hitters batting earlier is that you'd normally like your better hitters getting more plate appearances than a guy who can "move the runners over". I don't think there's any argument that when Soriano is hitting well, he's a better hitter than Theriot.

 

But he's not the Cubs best hitter so why should he bat 1st and not Ramirez or Lee?

That's a different argument, though. I'd be all in favor of moving Lee and Ramirez up. I'd much rather see Fukudome-Lee-Ramirez than Fukudome-Theriot-Lee-Ramirez.

 

It's not different. If the argument for Soriano batting 1st is getting your best hitters more PA, then it's a flawed argument because he is not the team's best hitter and could conceivably be out of the top 5. And if you are putting a guy who makes lots of outs 1 then you are making it more difficult to get more PA for your actual best hitters, let alone more PA with runners on base.

[bukie]

The argument against Soriano leading off is that his batting position will most often come up with no one on base (leading off the game/batting behind the 7-9 hitters).

 

If you're happy with 30 HR, 85 RBI, that's great, but you'd normally like your power hitters/run producers to hit with people on base

The argument for having your better hitters batting earlier is that you'd normally like your better hitters getting more plate appearances than a guy who can "move the runners over". I don't think there's any argument that when Soriano is hitting well, he's a better hitter than Theriot.

 

But he's not the Cubs best hitter so why should he bat 1st and not Ramirez or Lee?

That's a different argument, though. I'd be all in favor of moving Lee and Ramirez up. I'd much rather see Fukudome-Lee-Ramirez than Fukudome-Theriot-Lee-Ramirez.

 

It's not different. If the argument for Soriano batting 1st is getting your best hitters more PA, then it's a flawed argument because he is not the team's best hitter and could conceivably be out of the top 5. And if you are putting a guy who makes lots of outs 1 then you are making it more difficult to get more PA for your actual best hitters, let alone more PA with runners on base.

Qualified with "hitting well", I'd argue Soriano is at worst the third best hitter on the team. Coupled with the likelihood of something Piniella will actually do, I think there's a better chance Soriano gets moved up than Lee/Ramirez.

 

EDIT: Granted, the likelihood of Soriano hitting well at this point, let alone consistently well enough to be sufficient high in the order, is minimal. Until then, I'd much rather see a lineup of Fukudome-Lee-Ramirez, bunting be damned.

[jersey cubs fan]

Qualified with "hitting well", I'd argue Soriano is at worst the third best hitter on the team. Coupled with the likelihood of something Piniella will actually do, I think there's a better chance Soriano gets moved up than Lee/Ramirez.

 

EDIT: Granted, the likelihood of Soriano hitting well at this point, let alone consistently well enough to be sufficient high in the order, is minimal. Until then, I'd much rather see a lineup of Fukudome-Lee-Ramirez, bunting be damned.

 

As you noted, Soriano is no lock to hit well. Lou has locked into hitting him 6th and I really see no reason to argue about hitting him higher.

[Sammy Sofa]

Yeah, Soriano hitting well and hitting #1 would just be the worst thing in the world. Imagine the horror if Ryan Theriot got less AB's.

 

There's a difference between Soriano hitting and Soriano hitting well.

 

Obviously, hence why I said "hitting well." I don't want to just blindly plug him back into the #1 slot.

[Skyballer]

I never said that Theriot should bat second, I merely said the simplistic idea of "get my best hitter the most ABs" is definitely flawed. I didn't say it was a terrible idea, but people on here just like to throw out the 20 PA like its gospel

[Rob]

I never said that Theriot should bat second, I merely said the simplistic idea of "get my best hitter the most ABs" is definitely flawed. I didn't say it was a terrible idea, but people on here just like to throw out the 20 PA like its gospel

 

Each team has 162 games, so by definition you're going to have a last PA 162 times. 9 spots in the lineup. Average of 18 PA.

 

Obviously, some spots (those with crappier players in them) are a bit more likely to be the last one in a game, but I still don't see much of an issue with rounding up 2 PA.

[Skyballer]

I never said that Theriot should bat second, I merely said the simplistic idea of "get my best hitter the most ABs" is definitely flawed. I didn't say it was a terrible idea, but people on here just like to throw out the 20 PA like its gospel

 

Each team has 162 games, so by definition you're going to have a last PA 162 times. 9 spots in the lineup. Average of 18 PA.

 

Obviously, some spots (those with crappier players in them) are a bit more likely to be the last one in a game, but I still don't see much of an issue with rounding up 2 PA.

I think you missed my point. Maybe I wasn't clear but I wasn't saying I had a problem with the actual number 20, I have a problem with people throwing out that number when those 20 PA are over the course of an entire season, or 162 games. Wins and losses obviously occur on a game by game basis, not as a direct result of season statistics. So it makes a little more sense to bat players strategically rather than just strictly OPS based. That being said when your #1 hitter has a sub .800 OPS and youve got guys OPSing well over .850 than you've also got a huge problem. I don't think I could make a perfect lineup, but both the common OPS theory on this board is almost as flawed as the BA/SB theory applied by so many managers.

[Sammy Sofa]

Wait, what is the "common OPS theory" of this board?

[Rob]

Wait, what is the "common OPS theory" of this board?

 

Something tells me this is gonna be like when Joe Morgan ripped on Billy Beane for writing Moneyball about himself and all the made-up theories he had about what were in the book.

[bukie]

Wait, what is the "common OPS theory" of this board?

You'll have to give him a couple minutes while he finds someone else's post on the subject.

[Fred Hornkohl]

The actual numbers from '09:

 

CUBS                PA
batting 1st        766
batting 2nd        743
batting 3rd        724
batting 4th        705
batting 5th        697
batting 6th        675
batting 7th        664
batting 8th        647
batting 9th        623

All spots         6244

[Bull]

The actual numbers from '09:

 

CUBS                PA
batting 1st        766
batting 2nd        743
batting 3rd        724
batting 4th        705
batting 5th        697
batting 6th        675
batting 7th        664
batting 8th        647
batting 9th        623

All spots         6244

 

he's not arguing against the number 20, or 18 or any other number.

 

He's arguing that not all at bats are created equal.

[weis21]

The actual numbers from '09:

 

CUBS                PA
batting 1st        766
batting 2nd        743
batting 3rd        724
batting 4th        705
batting 5th        697
batting 6th        675
batting 7th        664
batting 8th        647
batting 9th        623

All spots         6244

 

he's not arguing against the number 20, or 18 or any other number.

 

He's arguing that not all at bats are created equal.

But if you were making that claim, couldn't you also make a case that those additional at-bats that the top of the order receives are at the end of the game - when you would undoubtedly want your best hitter's at the plate regardless of men on base?

 

Not that I think Soriano is one of the Cubs best hitters, however.