Breaking Down 2: Electric Boogaloo

[Rob]

Last August, I made a quick and dirty attempt to calculate what we should expect our players' BABIPs to be, and then adjusted their batting lines accordingly. (Located here) All in all, I was pretty pleased with the work, but another reader pointed out that my methodology could have been a touch better if I had bothered to use xBABIP (a formula developed by The Hardball Times) instead of the lazy LD% + .120 rule of thumb.

 

Well, I still don't have access to xBABIP, but I do have a tool developed by the Hardball Times designed to give a much more accurate estimation than simple LD% + .120. So I figured what the hell. This is our team with neutral luck (more or less). Round 2 begins below with our starting lineup for most of the year (and both major 2B).

 

Quick stats lesson for the uninitiated found under the spoiler:

 

 

BABIP is batting average on balls in play. Basically, this is a measure of how often the ball falls in for a hit when you put it in play (in other words, anything the defense can make a play on. Not strikeouts or home runs, for instance). There are quite a few factors that can determine a player's BABIP. Obviously, the defense, whether or not you hit the ball on the ground, on a line, or in the air are the big ones. But speed, ballpark, and even simple luck can all make some significant differences as well. If we can isolate most of those variables, we can figure out whether or not a player was getting robbed because his line drives were getting hit right at people, or whether he just got lucky that his bloopers fell in juuuuust out of reach of a defender's glove way more often than you can expect from him going forward.

 

 

Player - Geovany Soto

Actual Line - .218/.321/.381

Expected Line - .269/.365/.450

Comments - Just like I said last time, his sophomore slump is grossly overstated. He's a fine young catcher who just had terrible luck this year.

 

Player - Derrek Lee

Actual Line - .306/.393/.579

Expected line - .293/.382/.561

Comments - His great season looks a bit less impressive in this light, but not by enough to make me any less excited about his resurgence.

 

Player - Mike Fontenot

Actual Line - .236/.301/.377

Expected line - .268/.329/.418

Comments - Nasty slump and a touch of bad luck. I expect better next season, but we should be looking at external options for our 2010 starter.

 

Player - Jeff Baker

Actual Line - .288/.343/.425

Expected line - .260/.318/.389

Comments - Can we please put to rest the idea that Baker deserves a real shot at the starting job next season? He had a nice, luck-powered streak in Chicago, but he's the short side of a platoon player and occasional backup at 3B.

 

Player - Ryan Theriot

Actual Line - .284/.343/.369

Expected line - .294/.352/.381

Comments - Missing a handful of hits.

 

Player - Aramis Ramirez

Actual Line - .317/.389/.516

Expected line - .290/.365/.484

Comments - Not a whole lot to say. He was about what you'd expect from him if you factor in a nasty shoulder injury costing him half the season. He was a bit lucky, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him keep putting up his actual line anyways once his shoulder gets healthy again.

 

Player - Alfonso Soriano

Actual Line - .241/.303/.423

Expected line - .260/.320/.447

Comments - Somewhat comforting to think the decline wasn't quite as steep as it looked, but it's still a pretty bad line from a player who is getting older and showing serious injury concerns.

 

Player - Kosuke Fukudome

Actual Line - .257/.375/.421

Expected line - .279/.392/.462

Comments - Fukudome suffers the most from the new methodology (although that september swoon didn't help). Still, a pretty good season turns into an all-star one.

 

Player - Milton Bradley

Actual Line - .257/.378/.397

Expected line - .268/.387/.411

Comments - We all knew he hadn't had any problems getting on base, and while he was slightly unlucky in that regard, adjusting for luck doesn't do anything to give him back any of his power outage.

 

Bench players coming when I get around to it.

 

Bench:

 

Player - Koyie Hill

Actual Line - .237/.312/.324

Expected Line - .243/.317/.332

Comments - A hit and a half off.

 

Player - Jake Fox

Actual Line - .259/.311/.468

Expected Line - .275/.325/.488

Comments - Looking a bit better.

 

Player - Micah Hoffpauir

Actual Line - .239/.300/.427

Expected Line - .259/.317/.453

Comments - He wasn't ever going to keep up that 40% line drive rate he had in 2008. This is more like what you'll see from him, which isn't bad for a bench guy making the league minimum.

 

Player - Andres Blanco

Actual Line - .252/.303/.341

Expected Line - .280/.329/.377

Comments - Blanco has been below his expected line in 2005 and 2006 as well (he didn't play in the majors in 07 or 08). If he can start actually putting up the line he should be, he could be a quality SS considering his glove. He'll be 26 next year and entering his prime, so I might not place a nice career beyond him just yet.

 

Player - Aaron Miles

Actual Line - .185/.224/.242

Expected Line - .271/.306/.355

Comments - We all knew that there was no way that anybody could really be that bad, but even adjusting his line up by 100 points doesn't make it look anything but crappy. Another cautionary tale of paying too much for a player without a real skillset to speak of.

 

Player - Bobby Scales

Actual Line - .242/.312/.411

Expected Line - .254/.323/.429

Comments - It was a fun little story to have him called up finally at age 31. And he certainly held his own, though I sincerely doubt he's capable of putting up a .200 IsoP year after year.

 

Player - Sam Fuld

Actual Line - .299/.409/.412

Expected Line - .299/.409/.412

Comments - He is missing out on nine-thousandths of a single hit using this methodology. While I don't think he can keep putting up a LD% of 24.7%, he's our best internal option if we absolutely must send Milton Bradley packing.

 

Player - Reed Johnson

Actual Line - .255/.330/.412

Expected Line - .281/.353/.448

Comments - Yet another in a long line of our players missing out on 3-5 hits. In his case, it may have been enough that he'll have lowered his price and return to the team next year.

 

Player - Tyler Colvin

Actual Line - .176/.250/.176

Expected Line - .272/.331/.272

Comments - Normally I wouldn't bother on a guy with 20 PA, but this is the closest thing to a real prospect we brought up last season and he hit the ball well enough for those 20 PA that he should have gotten another hit or two.

 

And a bonus player!

 

Player - Carlos Zambrano

Actual Line - .217/.225/464

Expected Line - .237/.245/.493

Comments - Carlos was robbed!

Edited November 30, 2009 by Rob

[Guest]

Rob - Is there a way to translate these projections into how many runs the team should have scored in 2009? It would be nice to go into this offseason with some knowledge of how big of a problem the offense "really" was in 2009.

[Rob]

Rob - Is there a way to translate these projections into how many runs the team should have scored in 2009? It would be nice to go into this offseason with some knowledge of how big of a problem the offense "really" was in 2009.

 

Yeah, but that's probably two weeks worth of work to get my spreadsheet to handle that. Off the top of my head, I'd have to output their full batting lines instead of just slash stats, use that to calculate EqA, use EqA to calculate EqR, and then adjust that figure. Considering it's finals season, you're probably gonna need to wait a while unless I manage to think up a shortcut.

[Guest]

Rob - Is there a way to translate these projections into how many runs the team should have scored in 2009? It would be nice to go into this offseason with some knowledge of how big of a problem the offense "really" was in 2009.

 

Yeah, but that's probably two weeks worth of work to get my spreadsheet to handle that. Off the top of my head, I'd have to output their full batting lines instead of just slash stats, use that to calculate EqA, use EqA to calculate EqR, and then adjust that figure. Considering it's finals season, you're probably gonna need to wait a while unless I manage to think up a shortcut.

No worries.

 

The effort and analysis is much appreciated!

[Prizefight]

Wow, very interesting stuff. Thanks for putting this together!!!

[Rob]

Bench is up!

[Roast]

This is the type of stuff I come to NSBB for. Great post.

[third eye]

Does the Harball Times methodology use a variable scale for the +.120 factor or is there something completely different in the way they approach it? I'm curious why it impacts Fukudome more than the others.

 

Thanks for posting this!

[Rob]

Does the Harball Times methodology use a variable scale for the +.120 factor or is there something completely different in the way they approach it? I'm curious why it impacts Fukudome more than the others.

 

Thanks for posting this!

 

The new methodology involves not just LD%, but the raw numbers of ground balls, fly balls, and pop outs as well as at bats, strikeouts, home runs (as a proxy for power, I would assume) and stolen bases (as a proxy for speed). It even involves park factors. Thankfully, all of those numbers are easily available.

 

If I wanted to calculate actual xBABIP, I'd need to have spray charts and everything, but this gets pretty damn close to it.

[Burtonbell]

Player - Sam Fuld

Actual Line - .299/.409/.412

Expected Line - .299/.409/.412

 

Is this true or a mistake?

Either way, this is some great stuff. Thanks for the info!

[hardcorecubfan]

This is great stuff, I admire your patients and this hobby of yours. Thanks for sharing.

 

By the way can you come over and do my taxes this year?

[TruffleShuffle]

This is great stuff, I admire your patients and this hobby of yours. Thanks for sharing.

 

By the way can you come over and do my taxes this year?

 

](*,)

[NCCubFan]

This is great stuff, I admire your patients and this hobby of yours. Thanks for sharing.

 

By the way can you come over and do my taxes this year?

 

](*,)

He's a doctor. :D

[Rob]

Player - Sam Fuld

Actual Line - .299/.409/.412

Expected Line - .299/.409/.412

 

Is this true or a mistake?

Either way, this is some great stuff. Thanks for the info!

 

No typo. Fuld got exactly the results this season that he deserved.

[ELCABALLO45]

That is actually pretty cool stuff. Great Post.

[biittner77]

That is actually pretty cool stuff. Great Post.

 

The thread title should be breaking down 2: The Wrath of Kan.

[craig]

Really interesting stuff, Rob.

 

Question: do you believe it, and do you have confidence that you didn't make any mistakes?

 

The reason I ask is that fifteen players are calculating to have been "unlucky", several by pretty substantial amounts. Only three are calculating as having been lucky, Lee, Aram, and Baker, and lee and Aram only by small amounts.

 

The simplest explanation is that we really did happen to have a year where almost everybody was unlucky.

 

But an alternative, which might be almost as simple, is that there is some flaw in the analysis. In order to calculate such a disproportionate number of players to be so unlucky.

 

Not ripping, just curious. Looking at these, it almost suggests that if we just sit pat and bring back the same guys, the offense "should" be much, much, much more productive. If I believe that, it puts a somewhat different angle on how to project the future and what moves do or don't need to be made.

[Rob]

But an alternative, which might be almost as simple, is that there is some flaw in the analysis. In order to calculate such a disproportionate number of players to be so unlucky.

 

Really, that's an issue to take up with The Hardball Times. They're the one who put out the tool to calculate a quick expected BABIP. Assuming the work they did was accurate, my expected lines are as well. It's a relatively simple matter to adjust those batting lines.

 

When Perry was fired this season, the club was batting .246, a full 32 points lower than they batted in 2008, despite returning almost the same team. I'm inclined to believe there was a good deal of bad luck involved.

 

But as to this work having future predicative value, I'd be skeptical. If Ryan Theriot was missing out on 3 hits this season, there's a lot of factors that could easily nullify that next season. Though of course the larger the difference, the more likely the player regains some of that value. Soto is obviously quite unlucky, and I'd be willing to bet he rebounds somewhat. Aaron Miles too. Maybe Fontenot. But beyond that, I'd not read too much into the results looking forward. This is merely a record of what should have happened last year.