East Coast Bias on Prospects

[Sever82]

With all the talk of Granderson for Castro or Bucholz in a Halladay trade. I wanted to get a feel for you guys on if you guys felt like i do that ESPN, Foxsports and all the Major Media Outlets do favors to the Mets, Red Sox and Yankees in overhyping their prospects. What i mean by this, is we hear about Lars Anderson, Clay Bucholz, phill Hughes, Austin Jackson, etc, about how they're top prospects and how every other clubs prospects doesn't compare to them but i feel like most of these overhyped prospects are garbage but because the media overhypes them, GMs bite into the hype and so do fans. Perfect example was the Santana trade and how the trade centered around Carlos Gomez and how he was the next big thing and how Fernando Martinez wasn't included in the trade because he's a superstar also but neither player actually posted up decent numbers and as of right now, neither one is exactly a missing piece to a championship team.

[davell]

While I definitely think ESPN has biases towards New York and Boston prospects, I don't think that scouts fall into that trap at all. They're hopefully smarter than that anyway.

[Rob]

With all the talk of Granderson for Castro or Bucholz in a Halladay trade. I wanted to get a feel for you guys on if you guys felt like i do that ESPN, Foxsports and all the Major Media Outlets do favors to the Mets, Red Sox and Yankees in overhyping their prospects. What i mean by this, is we hear about Lars Anderson, Clay Bucholz, phill Hughes, Austin Jackson, etc, about how they're top prospects and how every other clubs prospects doesn't compare to them but i feel like most of these overhyped prospects are garbage but because the media overhypes them, GMs bite into the hype and so do fans. Perfect example was the Santana trade and how the trade centered around Carlos Gomez and how he was the next big thing and how Fernando Martinez wasn't included in the trade because he's a superstar also but neither player actually posted up decent numbers and as of right now, neither one is exactly a missing piece to a championship team.

 

I know this isn't the point of your post, but Fernando Martinez just turned 21 a month ago and he already has a bit of major league service time. The star is still shining brightly for him.

[Clem Fandango]

Also, IIRC a lot of the media were baffled that Minnesota settled on such a weak trade package for Santana. No one was really giving Carlos Gomez the royal treatment when that trade was going down

[toonsterwu]

IIRC the Santana trade timeline correctly, Bill Smith worked himself into a jam by trying to force more out of Boston and the New York Yankees, with both sides eventually stepping aside, letting the Mets swoop in with a "meh" package.

 

Is there media bias towards big city prospects? Sure. It's a byproduct of, well, being in a big city. I think it's fair to say that many folks have questioned if some Cubs prospects were overhyped. Do New York/Boston prospects that get overhyped, get overhyped a bit more? Perhaps.

 

That said, I doubt scouts are influenced. It's their job to go out and see and judge these guys. The Yankees system, moreso than the Red Sox, has probably been a bit more overhyped relative to talent. Theo's done a good job building a system and developing talent in Boston.

 

Btw, the rhetoric this offseason on Boston and New York teams seems to be, to me

 

a) Red Sox system is talented, but thin at the top levels.

b) Mets system is quite thin.

c) Yankees system has a couple intriguing pieces, but their advantage may be their wallet.

 

Short of it is, I'm not sure that national media is really overhyping these three teams prospects all that much this offseason. There's some individual pieces of interest. A guy like Austin Jackson isn't as good as anticipated, but could perhaps be a decent big league CF.

[Serge]

What I notice more than anything is that the facts about guys will be right, like "he throws a 60 FB, 60 CB, 50 change" or "has potential 30 HR power" but for some reason when the rankings come out the guys end up way higher than they should be. For instance, a few years ago Ian Kennedy was a top 50 prospect despite the fact that he was clearly a mediocre finesse pitcher. BA noted that his only above average pitch was his change, but still ranked him well above guys that did better in the minors and/or had higher ceilings for seemingly no reason.

[Shilzzz]

Jesus Montero should be good, but when i hear things like "the cubs are interested in granderson and may be willing to part with some top prospects, and that may be good enough, but if the yankees get involved the cubs won't stand a chance" on the radio from guys with no obvious knowledge of the Cubs farm system, let alone the Yankees minor league guys (lets face it, even the sports writers in Chicago can't get Starlin Castro's name right), then you know there is a built up bias towards east coast teams. Maybe not the mets as much as the yankees and red sox, however.

[Rob]

Here's a simple fact... even if you admit that the Yankees system isn't as good as ours, they can still put together a better trade proposal most of the time for one simple reason.

 

They'll eat bad contracts.

 

And when it comes to Detroit, they have no shortage of those laying around. Ordonez, Willis, Guillen, Bonderman, Robertson...

[Shilzzz]

They were speaking specifically of their system, though.

[Sever82]

Perfect example, look at Ken Rosenthals latest rumblings on Adrian Gonzalez. He mentioned that if the Red Sox got involved in the Gonzalez sweepstakes, they can offer a package of lowell, pappelbon and Lar Anderson. Correct me if i'm wrong but isn't Lars garbage and aren't his numbers in the minors nothing special?

 

As much as i dont like to defend the White Sox, if the White Sox offered Viciedo, Hudson, Danks, and Flowers, while the Yankees offered Kennedy, Gardner, Jackson, Montero. I think i would take the sox package over the yankees but the media would talk Kennedy up and Jackson up as the next big thing.

[Shilzzz]

Anderson was garbage in 09, yes, but hope remains. He was a highly touted guy before he fell off a cliff this year. That a guy like Josh Reddick gets love when he is as average as possible explains it better.

 

Oh man, yeah, Ian Kennedy is nothing. haha. Ian Kennedy. To be fair though, Montero is the best prospect out of all the guys you just listed. But the White Sox have a better package amongst those you listed.

[toonsterwu]

Perfect example, look at Ken Rosenthals latest rumblings on Adrian Gonzalez. He mentioned that if the Red Sox got involved in the Gonzalez sweepstakes, they can offer a package of lowell, pappelbon and Lar Anderson. Correct me if i'm wrong but isn't Lars garbage and aren't his numbers in the minors nothing special?

 

As much as i dont like to defend the White Sox, if the White Sox offered Viciedo, Hudson, Danks, and Flowers, while the Yankees offered Kennedy, Gardner, Jackson, Montero. I think i would take the sox package over the yankees but the media would talk Kennedy up and Jackson up as the next big thing.

 

I think that a lot of people sitll have hope on Lars. He's not as highly touted as he was a year ago, but I think people are willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for a year.

 

As for the 2nd part, that's a tough call. Comes down to team. I like Hudson a bit more than Kennedy, but both are mid-end of the rotation starters in all likelihood. Montero's bat is probably better than Flowers, and Jackson offers some value as a CF (most indications ar ehe can play there). I'm not a fan of Danks.

 

In terms of overall ability, I'd give a slight edge to the White Sox package, but I think it really comes down to team needs to really judge that package. You also have the Yankees giving up 2 OF's, one of whom, in Gardner, has a Fuld profile of being a bench player in all likelihood, with a chance to start at CF if he fits the team needs. Whereas, Viciedo, if he pans out, is a solid starting caliber third baseman.

[Shilzzz]

The thing about Red Sox prospects is that they have big years in A ball because it's a super hitter friendly field, then they move on to Portland which is a big time pitchers park, and the hitters all struggle. So, a large part of Lars Anderson's 09 campaign can be chalked up to tougher competition in a severe pitchers park. He has all the tools to be a big time slugger, though.