BA's Midwest League's top 20

[davell]

Tomorrow should be extremely interesting. Peoria was loaded this year and the Cubs should be VERY well represented in this top 20. Vitters has a very solid shot at being 1 overall. It'll be interesting to see if Jackson makes this list as well. (only reason he wouldn't would be because of lack of at bats)LeMahieu will have a chance, but I could see him missing out too. Because of the lack of time mostly, in his case too.

 

Does Ridling have an outside shot here? I wouldn't think so, but I guess it's at least a remote possibility anyway. I fully expect Flaherty and Burke to make it. Hopefully Burke makes the top 10 here after the season he just had.

 

I guess that we now realize BA isn't high on Antigua yet, so my guess is he has zero shot on the pitching side. On the other hand, Carpenter should be showing up in the top 20, maybe pretty high, unless they look at his age as a deterrent for this league. Even then, he'll still be in there somewhere. Will Archer and/or Huseby make it? It wouldn't shock me if they both do personally, but I guess I wouldn't be totally shocked if neither did. Because of his velocity, I'd think Archer would be the higher ranked of the two at this point.

[Guest]

Midwest league has a sizeable number of teams, so I don't think there will be nearly as many cubs as you believe. I'm guessing (assuming they qualify) Vitters, Carpenter, Burke.

[Outshined_One]

I'll be surprised if Flaherty doesn't make the list.

[davell]

Midwest league has a sizeable number of teams, so I don't think there will be nearly as many cubs as you believe. I'm guessing (assuming they qualify) Vitters, Carpenter, Burke.

 

I figure those 3 are locks, with Flaherty being a definite as well. But, if I had to bet, I'd say at least one of Archer or Huseby makes the top 20 as well.

 

You're right though, with all the teams, Jackson and LeMahieu are probably going to miss out due to lack of playing time.......

 

My guesses on numbers will be Vitters at 1, Burke at 8, Carpenter at 10, Flaherty at 16, and Archer at 20.

[Guest]

Actually, I just overlooked Jackson. If he's got the AB's, I'd bet he's #2 on the cubs list behind Vitters. I'm not confident that Burke and Carpenter are locks, either.

[Guest]

Brett Jackson shouldn't have the at bats to get in.

 

I agree with Tim that Vitters is the only lock. I do think the Cubs will get at least one more (probably two more) from Burke, Carpenter and Flaherty. Guys like Archer and Huseby are unlikely. As Tim said, there are a lot of teams in the MWL and only 20 prospects on the list.

[toonsterwu]

On the MWL list - I think we'll probably get 3 in with Vitters in the top 2, and Burke/Carpenter getting in there. Burke seems like a guy a lot of the BA folks like, and they are tools-centric anyways. Carpenter ... just tough to see him not make it in, as I think some of the BA folk have lavished praise on him this year. If Flaherty makes it, it'll be more 20th sneaking in. I doubt it, though. MWL seemed pretty solid in terms of prospect value this year, so it wouldn't surprise me if Carpenter came in anywhere from 8-20, and Burke probably in the latter part of the top 20, say, 16-20 area.

 

Quick note on agreeing that Huseby and Archer are probably unlikely - a lot of folks still think the latter is a pen projection, due to inconsistency/mechanics, and so forth, and I think a lot of folks probably think like a majority of Cubs fans on Huseby - nice performance, but what does it mean in the grand spectrum in that, it's a nice push forward, particularly after last year, but is he a dominant pen arm? If not, will the Cubs move him to the rotation. As such, I really don't see either guy making it.

[ChiefsVoice]

Brett Jackson shouldn't have the at bats to get in.

 

I agree with Tim that Vitters is the only lock. I do think the Cubs will get at least one more (probably two more) from Burke, Carpenter and Flaherty. Guys like Archer and Huseby are unlikely. As Tim said, there are a lot of teams in the MWL and only 20 prospects on the list.

 

Not sure how they do the AB's but Jackson had 24 more here than in Boise (112-88). Vitters will be 1 or 2 with Jaff Decker in the other slot. Gordon and Castro should also be top 5. I think Burke is top 10. Carp and Flash are fringe 15-25 guys. Don't forget about Harrison...

 

If I was ranking our guys for BA I would rank:

Vitters

Jackson

Burke

Carpenter

Flaherty

Antigua

LeMahieu

Archer

Huseby

Ridling

[Guest]

Brett Jackson shouldn't have the at bats to get in.

 

I agree with Tim that Vitters is the only lock. I do think the Cubs will get at least one more (probably two more) from Burke, Carpenter and Flaherty. Guys like Archer and Huseby are unlikely. As Tim said, there are a lot of teams in the MWL and only 20 prospects on the list.

 

Not sure how they do the AB's but Jackson had 24 more here than in Boise (112-88). Vitters will be 1 or 2 with Jaff Decker in the other slot. Gordon and Castro should also be top 5. I think Burke is top 10. Carp and Flash are fringe 15-25 guys. Don't forget about Harrison...

 

If I was ranking our guys for BA I would rank:

Vitters

Jackson

Burke

Carpenter

Flaherty

Antigua

LeMahieu

Archer

Huseby

Ridling

 

You can make NWL's list with fewer at bats since it's a short season league. I think you need ~200 at bats to qualify for the full season leagues. Antigua is another guy who won't qualify despite playing more in Peoria than Boise.

 

Nathan, what did you think of what BA said about Antigua's stuff yesterday? Is this a fair assessment of Antigua:

 

His fastball sits in the 89-91 mph range, he has a slider that's tough on lefties and a changeup. His fastball has a lot of movement and he's able to throw his secondary pitches for strikes.

[ChiefsVoice]

Brett Jackson shouldn't have the at bats to get in.

 

I agree with Tim that Vitters is the only lock. I do think the Cubs will get at least one more (probably two more) from Burke, Carpenter and Flaherty. Guys like Archer and Huseby are unlikely. As Tim said, there are a lot of teams in the MWL and only 20 prospects on the list.

 

Not sure how they do the AB's but Jackson had 24 more here than in Boise (112-88). Vitters will be 1 or 2 with Jaff Decker in the other slot. Gordon and Castro should also be top 5. I think Burke is top 10. Carp and Flash are fringe 15-25 guys. Don't forget about Harrison...

 

If I was ranking our guys for BA I would rank:

Vitters

Jackson

Burke

Carpenter

Flaherty

Antigua

LeMahieu

Archer

Huseby

Ridling

 

You can make NWL's list with fewer at bats since it's a short season league. I think you need ~200 at bats to qualify for the full season leagues. Antigua is another guy who won't qualify despite playing more in Peoria than Boise.

 

Nathan, what did you think of what BA said about Antigua's stuff yesterday? Is this a fair assessment of Antigua:

 

His fastball sits in the 89-91 mph range, he has a slider that's tough on lefties and a changeup. His fastball has a lot of movement and he's able to throw his secondary pitches for strikes.

 

Yeah pretty fair. I saw him as high as 93. but on average was 90-91. His changeup was the best on our roster. When he struggled it was with locating the slider. He made guys look stupid with the change. Was almost like that old Bugs Bunny cartoon where you swing and miss 3 times at the same pitch.

[Guest]

Thanks, Nathan.

 

I don't understand how a young lefty with his success in the NWL and his stuff wouldn't even sniff the top 20. Especially in a down year in pitching in the NWL.

[Guest]

Holy crap, Josh Vitters is #3 and Jaff Decker is way down at 8:

 

1. Aaron Hicks, of, Beloit (Twins)

2. Dee Gordon, ss, Great Lakes (Dodgers)

3. Josh Vitters, 3b, Peoria (Cubs)

4. Brett Lawrie, 2b, Wisconsin (Brewers)

5. Mike Montgomery, lhp, Burlington (Royals)

6. Casey Crosby, lhp, West Michigan (Tigers)

7. Simon Castro, rhp, Fort Wayne (Padres)

8. Jaff Decker, of, Fort Wayne (Padres)

9. Cody Scarpetta, rhp, Wisconsin (Brewers)

10. Ethan Martin, rhp, Great Lakes (Dodgers)

11. Tim Melville, rhp, Burlington (Royals)

12. Eric Hosmer, 1b, Burlington (Royals)

13. A.J. Pollock, of, South Bend (Diamondbacks)

14. Wily Peralta, rhp, Wisconsin (Brewers)

15. James Darnell, 3b, Fort Wayne (Padres)

16. Chris Archer, rhp, Peoria (Cubs)

17. Kyle Russell, of, Great Lakes (Dodgers)

18. Grant Desme, of, Kane County (Athletics)

19. Pedro Figueroa, lhp, Kane County (Athletics)

20. Chris Carpenter, rhp, Peoria (Cubs)

 

Who gives a crap that Dacker is fat? Kid can hit. And Hicks and a slap hitter ahead of Vitters is a bit perplexing. I also think Simon Castro and Ethan Martin were a bit underrated here.

[Serge]

Wow, I didn't think Archer would make the list. And no Burke either is pretty pretty screwy.

[Guest]

Baseball America[/url]"]3. Josh Vitters, 3b, Peoria (Cubs)

 

Age: 20. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 200. Drafted: HS—Cypress, Calif., 2007 (1).

 

Vitters opened 2008 at Peoria but played in just four games before a hand injury shut him down. In his return to the MWL this year, managers rated him as the league's best hitting prospect and the best power prospect.

 

"He's a special player," Cedar Rapids manager Bill Mosiello said. "He physically reminds me of a righhanded Chase Utley. He's stronger than he looks."

 

Vitters excels at the plate more through a short, powerful stroke and hand-eye coordination than pure bat speed. He makes consistent hard contact but gives away at-bats by swinging at too many pitches, a weakness opponents exploited more after his promotion to high Class A at the end of June. He may hit for power and average but never draw many walks. He's also a below-average runner.

 

His defensive ability is of greater concern. Vitters has good hands and enough arm for third base, but he lacks a quick first step and range. He's a laid-back kid, and MWL observers would have liked to see him be more aggressive about addressing his plate discipline and his defense.

 

16. Chris Archer, rhp, Peoria (Cubs)

 

Age: 20. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-3. Wt.: 180. Drafted: HS—Clayton, N.C., 2006 (5).

 

While the Cubs may regret trading Mark DeRosa in the offseason, they're not sorry that Archer was one of the three pitchers they acquired in return. After going 5-18, 5.13 in three seasons in the Indians organization, he started to make real progress this year.

 

Archer breaks bats with a 91-93 mph fastball that tops out at 95. His heater can get straight because he has an over-the-top delivery, but it flashes some sink and armside run. He throws both a curveball and a slider, which can be above-average pitches when he throws them for strikes. He didn't allow a single homer in 109 innings.

 

He's reluctant to use his changeup or pitch to contact, so Archer could wind up in the bullpen. There are no glaring flaws in his easy delivery, but he goes through stretches where he struggles to find the strike zone.

 

20. Chris Carpenter, rhp, Peoria (Cubs)

 

Age: 23. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-4. Wt.: 215. Drafted: Kent State, 2008 (3).

 

Carpenter had Tommy John surgery as a Kent State freshman in 2005, then a second operation to clean out scar tissue the next year. He has put his elbow issues behind him, as his ability to sit at 91-94 mph and reach 97 with his fastball will attest.

 

Carpenter operates mostly with a four-seamer but still gets groundballs because he locates it all over the strike zone. Whether he makes it as a starter or reliever will depend on how well he develops his secondary pitches and how willing he is to use them.

 

His breaking ball is something in between a curveball and slider. It flashes some bite and depth, but he needs to do a better job of staying on top of it. Scouts say his changeup is a decent third pitch but wish they could see more of it. His command was shaky in the MWL but improved once he moved on to high Class A and Double-A.

[Guest]

Chat starts at 2 pm CT: http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/chat/?1254419146

[toonsterwu]

I am somewhat floored by the rankings. Archer fairly solidly in, Carpenter on the outskirts? Callis had indicated awhile ago that he was leaning Vitters 1 ... I wonder if this is a change on his part, or the voting didn't go that way. I had been under the impression that BA's folks weren't that high on Archer ... is this a case of other league managers being high on him? Hicks at number 1 also surprises me. Gordon I can sort of understand ... a lot of people seem really, superbly high on him, much higher than I am, but if you buy Gordon as an elite shortstop, fine, I can understand that. Scarpetta and Pollock both seem high to me on first glance. Desme seems fairly low. Castro/Decker could probably make a case to go higher.

 

Just fairly stunned by this list. Not having Burke there also surprises me.

[bubblesdachimp]

want to know why burkes not there

[ChiefsVoice]

This list is a total joke. Hicks is awful. I think this list is a pretty good example of why none of the coaches or pro scouts I've been around in 7 years think that Baseball America is legit. Coaches especially hate BA and think they know nothing. I've really never heard a scout, exec or coach say anything positive about BA at all. They see guys once, maybe twice all season and then throw these lists together so take them with a grain of salt.

 

In my opinion, Scarpetta and Peralta are both way to high. Desme is too low. and Burke flat out got screwed.

 

I would have gone Vitters, Decker, Gordon, Crosby, Montgomery, Castro, Lawrie, Russell, Burke, Desme as my top 10.

[Guest]

I figured that Vitters was the only lock. I think Burke gets downgraded because its his third time in the league. Carpenter's performance was better in the higher leagues, but they don't take that into account for this list.

 

Archer surprises the heck out of me showing up on the list. Out of curiosity, how do you throw an effective slider if you're coming over the top? Can anyone name a pitcher with an elite slider that throws from above a 3/4 arm slot?

[davell]

I think Hicks at 1 is a joke. Vitters at 3? Who knows really, I thought he'd be 1, but oh well......I can even see how Carpenter fell that far, if only because of his age. Archer getting in doesn't surprise me, but seeing him higher than Carpenter certainly does. After thinking about it, I definitely see why Flaherty didn't make it. I'm beyond floored Burke didn't get in there though. I really hope that there is a question answered about him in the chat.

[toonsterwu]

NVM ... I misread Nate's post, I thought he was referring to the Cubs prospect list, but reading it again, it's clear it's about the MWL. Dunno what I was reading the first time.

[davell]

This list also sheds some light on the overall top 100 in a way. If Vitters is 3rd here, what's the best we can hope for overall? 50-60 range possibly? With Carpenter down at 20, there's essentially zero chance he has of making it now obviously. 150-200 range seems more realistic for him I guess?

 

Maybe Lee makes it though and possibly Brett Jackson as well?

[Guest]

This list also sheds some light on the overall top 100 in a way. If Vitters is 3rd here, what's the best we can hope for overall? 50-60 range possibly? With Carpenter down at 20, there's essentially zero chance he has of making it now obviously. 150-200 range seems more realistic for him I guess?

 

Maybe Lee makes it though and possibly Brett Jackson as well?

I think Carpenter gets rated more highly overall than he does in the MWL, but still falls short of the top 100.

 

I'm guessing this means Castro over Vitters in the Cubs list, though.

 

Castro + Vitters would seem to be locks. I'd say Lee is likely, Cashner and Brett Jackson have decent to outside shots at it, everyone else is a longshot.

[toonsterwu]

I think BA's made a point in the past to ask folks to judge the league lists separately from the top 100. Sure, there are probably things you could read into it, but I wouldn't read too much into it, IMO.

 

I think most expectations on Vitters ranking right now was going to be in that 40-60 range anyways. I think Castro will be potentially in that range. After that, it's a bit up in the air. It's completely possible that no other Cubs make it.

 

If I had to make a new guess on BA right now, I'd guess Castro/Vitters safely in, with Lee in that 70-100 range as an upside nod, with perhaps one arm, either Jackson or Cashner, sneaking in in the 90-100 range. Keep in mind that there was one BA guy, I forget who, who was really high on Jackson, so I think it's still possible Jackson gets into the top 100. Personally, I would rank Jackson ahead of Cashner.

[Outshined_One]

And awaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay we go.

 

Frank (Chatham IL): What are scouts telling you about Brett Jackson's performance for Peoria this year? Any love for this list?

 

 

Jim Callis: Scouts loved Brett Jackson. Strikeouts weren't as much of a problem for him as they were in college, and he was an athletic center fielder with promising power. He would have ranked no lower than third on the list but fell 10 plate appearances short of qualifying.

 

Jackson over Vitters would be perplexing, to put it mildly.