Re: Who is the most underrated player this year?

[javy knows my name]

I have to say Nyjer Morgan is.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=lf&stats=bat&lg=nl&qual=y&type=6&season=2009&month=0

 

He's been worth 13 million dollars this year but most statheads think because he's a slightly below average hitter that tells the whole story on his abilities and that he sucks. But he's saved 19 runs on defense so that more than makes up for his crappy hitting and all around makes him a great player to have on your team. BTW the average stathead loves Adam Dunn and some actually think an awful national team was right for paying him 10 mil a year, but Nyjer Morgan has been worth almost 3 times as much as Dunn because Dunn is unbelievably retardedly bad on defense. The problem is most baseball statheads don't take into account the fact that a players defense has a lot to do with his value.

 

Adam Dunn on pace to be worth $7.1 mil , salary $8 mil

 

Nyjer Morgan on pace to be worth $22 mil, salary $411K

 

In conclusion Nyjer Morgan is massively underrated by the people who think they know more than the average person about baseball because they look at a player's OPS and nothing else, while Adam Dunn is massively overrated by those same people.

Edited July 25, 2009 by javy knows my name

[laurens]

OPStards? Really?

 

Oh and I'd much rather have Dunn on my team than Morgan.

[VladiRad]

I would rather have Dunn on my team if it was an AL team. He'd be a great DH. But in the NL his value is extremely reduced to where is pretty much middle of the road compared to other NL left fielders.

[laurens]

I would rather have Dunn on my team if it was an AL team. He'd be a great DH. But in the NL his value is extremely reduced to where is pretty much middle of the road compared to other NL left fielders.

 

No he isn't.

[VladiRad]

Oh, okay.

[laurens]

For 2009, Adam Dunn has an EqA of .322. That is definitely NOT middle of the road.

[VladiRad]

Costing your team 30-35 runs in the field does make him middle of the road. Why don't you care about a players defense?

[laurens]

Costing your team 20 runs in the field does make him middle of the road. Why don't you care about a players defense?

 

Why do you only care about a players defense? If you want to use stats like how much runs a player costs because of his defense, you could also say Dunn has a RC (runs created) of 76 while Morgan only has 48 RC. So you could say Dunn makes up for his defense with his offensive abbilities, and then some.

[VladiRad]

If I only cared about a player's defense I would be saying that Adam Dunn is the worst player in the history of baseball.

 

And runs created isn't runs added. It's not comparable to UZR. The offensive values on fangraphs can be compared with UZR. I like how you're completely overlooking fangraphs. Why don't you take them seriously?

[laurens]

If I only cared about a player's defense I would be saying that Adam Dunn is the worst player in the history of baseball.

 

And runs created isn't runs added. It's not comparable to UZR. The offensive values on fangraphs can be compared with UZR. I like how you're completely overlooking fangraphs. Why don't you take them seriously?

 

UZR? Oh, I'm gonna leave this to Dextermorgan.

 

 

You do realize that UZR has some serious flaws, right?

[VladiRad]

Why don't you say them then? I admit it has some flaws. Defense is hard to measure. But all other defensive stats and people's eyes can tell that Dunn is so bad defensively and Morgan's so good that Morgan is much more valuable in the NL.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Even if you heavily regress UZR so that Dunn's like -10 and Morgan is +10, they have been close in overall value.

 

For me, if you're looking for an UZR outlier that's being overlooked for his overall value, go with Franklin Gutierrez. Outstanding defense in CF and a .350 wOBA.

[laurens]

Why don't you say them then? I admit it has some flaws. Defense is hard to measure. But all other defensive stats and people's eyes can tell that Dunn is so bad defensively and Morgan's so good that Morgan is much more valuable in the NL.

 

I'm not denying that Dunn is awful in the outfield. He is. Morgan is clearly better. But I disagree with you on the fact that because Morgan is better defensively, he is a better all-round player than Dunn.

[VladiRad]

It's not because Morgan is just a little bit better defensively. He's so much better than Dunn there are no adjectives for it. We can both agree than Dunn severely reduces his value by playing in the NL, right? And that no NL team should ever sign him to 10 mil a year especially a team with a 60 mil payroll and no hopes of contending in the near future?

[laurens]

It's not because Morgan is just a little bit better defensively. He's so much better than Dunn there are no adjectives for it. We can both agree than Dunn severely reduces his value by playing in the NL, right? And that no NL team should ever sign him to 10 mil a year especially a team with a 60 mil payroll and no hopes of contending in the near future?

 

I'd have been thrilled if the Cubs signed Dunn to a 10 mil/year deal last offseason.

[VladiRad]

They might be 50-44 instead 49-45 if that happened. If you want them to pay 10 mil for that... Edited July 25, 2009 by VladiRad

[laurens]

That might be 50-44 instead 49-45 if that happened. If you want them to pay 10 mil for that...

 

50-44 what? runs below average? yeah, I'd take that for the offensive numbers he'd put up at Wrigley.

 

EDIT: yeah, stupid me just realized you were talking about Cubs standings.

Edited July 25, 2009 by laurens

[VladiRad]

What? Their record. Oh I meant they. I need some sleep.

[laurens]

What? Their record.

 

Yeah, just realized that. You do realize that with his production instead of Bradley's we'd probably be in front of the Cards right?

[VladiRad]

Yeah, maybe. If Soriano hadn't forgot how to play baseball you guys would be in front of the Cards.

[inari]

As someone who was once Adam Dunn's biggest fan, I'm becoming a bit of a believer in the value of defense and just how much it takes away from his bat. I wouldn't say it makes someone like Nyjer Morgan more valuable, but I'd certainly say that Dunn is about the worst .900+ OPS player in baseball and it's just because he costs so many runs on defense. If he was a DH, of course, that problem wouldn't exist. But he's not, and as it is, a huge amount of his offensive value is neutralized by how much he costs his pitching staff in terms of giving up baserunners, extra bases, and ultimately runs.

[sneakypower]

If I only cared about a player's defense I would be saying that Adam Dunn is the worst player in the history of baseball.

 

And runs created isn't runs added. It's not comparable to UZR. The offensive values on fangraphs can be compared with UZR. I like how you're completely overlooking fangraphs. Why don't you take them seriously?

 

UZR? Oh, I'm gonna leave this to Dextermorgan.

 

 

You do realize that UZR has some serious flaws, right?

oh yeah, care to elaborate?

[laurens]

If I only cared about a player's defense I would be saying that Adam Dunn is the worst player in the history of baseball.

 

And runs created isn't runs added. It's not comparable to UZR. The offensive values on fangraphs can be compared with UZR. I like how you're completely overlooking fangraphs. Why don't you take them seriously?

 

UZR? Oh, I'm gonna leave this to Dextermorgan.

 

 

You do realize that UZR has some serious flaws, right?

oh yeah, care to elaborate?

 

The fact that, much like most other defensive stats, it's based on observation, that it doesn't factor in the fielder's arm strength and his ability to turn a DP.

[Sammy Sofa]

THOSE DAMN STATHEADS, WHAT WITH THEIR SHENANGIANS AND WHATNOT

[sneakypower]

If I only cared about a player's defense I would be saying that Adam Dunn is the worst player in the history of baseball.

 

And runs created isn't runs added. It's not comparable to UZR. The offensive values on fangraphs can be compared with UZR. I like how you're completely overlooking fangraphs. Why don't you take them seriously?

 

UZR? Oh, I'm gonna leave this to Dextermorgan.

 

 

You do realize that UZR has some serious flaws, right?

oh yeah, care to elaborate?

 

The fact that, much like most other defensive stats, it's based on observation, that it doesn't factor in the fielder's arm strength and his ability to turn a DP.

1. it isn't based on observation

2. i don't think you understand what a fact is

3. it's a range metric, no [expletive] it doesn't factor throwing arm and DP ability

4. both of those are however, measured through different stats already factored into WAR

Edited July 25, 2009 by sneakypower