Day by Day - Game by Game

[ragirag]

All you naysayers who 'are not worried' about this team, and getting proven wrong.

 

Another smashing opening to another Cubs game. Well on our way to being rocked again, at home.

 

I'm telling ya - 75-80 wins, tops.

 

(If I am wrong, I will gladly eat some crow - but I don't see it happening)..

[Tyrant]

I'm glad someone created another thread to say this. Very useful.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I think all of these recent threads should be compiled into 1 entiled "The Reasons Our Cobs Will Never Win Anything 2009 Edition"

[Mephistopheles]

we're not getting proven wrong because we have all said we'll be fine once we get our horses back. they're not back yet and we havent had them this season except for like two or three games at the beginning of the year.

 

if aramis ramirez is out the rest of the year, geovany soto hits 150 the rest of the year, rich harden has a 5+ era the rest of the year (despite a ~14 k/9) and milton bradley hits 100 the rest of the year, yes we will only win 75 games.

 

 

fortunately none of those things are likely.

[ragirag]

we're not getting proven wrong because we have all said we'll be fine once we get our horses back. they're not back yet and we havent had them this season except for like two or three games at the beginning of the year.

 

 

Wishful thinking.

 

Bradley has played in 15 of 22 games

 

Lee has played in 20 of 22 games

 

Soriano in 22 of 22

 

Soto in 17 of 22

 

Aram in 13 of 22

 

and Fuku in 20 of 22.

 

How is that 'we have only had our horses in 2 or 3 games at the beginning of the year'?

 

And if the pitching keeps giving up 8-10 runs a game, we WILL NOT be alright.

 

The team is downright awful right now, and it's not going to improve that much when the only player who has lost significant playing time to injury returns in Aram.

[Mephistopheles]

Opening Day is the only game thus far we've played where our projected 8 (Bradley, Soriano, Fukudome, Ramirez, Theriot, Fontenot, Lee and Soto in case you don't know who they are) have all been in the starting lineup. That's one game of 22. Only in 11 of the games have seven of our projected 8 been in the starting line up. That's eleven of 22. We're 7-4 in those games.

 

Bradley hasn't lost significant time to injuries? Coming into today he had 45 PAs this season. Soto only had 56. Guess how many Ramirez had? 56. Stop running in circles with a bad argument.

[dew1679666265]

we're not getting proven wrong because we have all said we'll be fine once we get our horses back. they're not back yet and we havent had them this season except for like two or three games at the beginning of the year.

 

 

Wishful thinking.

 

Bradley has played in 15 of 22 games

 

Lee has played in 20 of 22 games

 

Soriano in 22 of 22

 

Soto in 17 of 22

 

Aram in 13 of 22

 

and Fuku in 20 of 22.

 

How is that 'we have only had our horses in 2 or 3 games at the beginning of the year'?

 

And if the pitching keeps giving up 8-10 runs a game, we WILL NOT be alright.

 

The team is downright awful right now, and it's not going to improve that much when the only player who has lost significant playing time to injury returns in Aram.

 

You're ignoring the numerous ice cold starts a lot of guys with great proven track records have experienced.

 

Lee may well be falling off, but ARam and Bradley are almost guaranteed to be far better than they have been and Soto and Fontenot are likely to be better than they have been. Even DLee is highly likely to improve - though I'm not sure how much.

 

The pitching is a concern and if Dempster doesn't revert back to last year, we're in a bit of trouble there. But Z, Harden and Lilly are still a very strong top three and Marshall looked great last night.

[ragirag]

Opening Day is the only game thus far we've played where our projected 8 (Bradley, Soriano, Fukudome, Ramirez, Theriot, Fontenot, Lee and Soto in case you don't know who they are) have all been in the starting lineup. That's one game of 22. Only in 11 of the games have seven of our projected 8 been in the starting line up. That's eleven of 22. We're 7-4 in those games.

 

Bradley hasn't lost significant time to injuries? Coming into today he had 45 PAs this season. Soto only had 56. Guess how many Ramirez had? 56. Stop running in circles with a bad argument.

 

How is the projected starting 8 running out there, going to fix the bullpen or the starting pitching? Answer that, and I'll leave it be...

[ragirag]

we're not getting proven wrong because we have all said we'll be fine once we get our horses back. they're not back yet and we havent had them this season except for like two or three games at the beginning of the year.

 

 

Wishful thinking.

 

Bradley has played in 15 of 22 games

 

Lee has played in 20 of 22 games

 

Soriano in 22 of 22

 

Soto in 17 of 22

 

Aram in 13 of 22

 

and Fuku in 20 of 22.

 

How is that 'we have only had our horses in 2 or 3 games at the beginning of the year'?

 

And if the pitching keeps giving up 8-10 runs a game, we WILL NOT be alright.

 

The team is downright awful right now, and it's not going to improve that much when the only player who has lost significant playing time to injury returns in Aram.

 

You're ignoring the numerous ice cold starts a lot of guys with great proven track records have experienced.

 

Lee may well be falling off, but ARam and Bradley are almost guaranteed to be far better than they have been and Soto and Fontenot are likely to be better than they have been. Even DLee is highly likely to improve - though I'm not sure how much.

 

The pitching is a concern and if Dempster doesn't revert back to last year, we're in a bit of trouble there. But Z, Harden and Lilly are still a very strong top three and Marshall looked great last night.

 

 

And one last thing - Who says Bradley, Aram, Soriano, etc are going to stay off the injury report?

 

And ignoring the ice cole starts of other players, then how do you ignore the hot start Fuku had last season, only to fall off the face of the earth?

 

You might say he figured it out.

 

In reply to that, you can argue regression towards Dlee, Soto, etc...

 

I am worried

[Mephistopheles]

For one we won't have terrible defense at third with Fontenot. We won't have terrible defense at 2B with Miles. We won't have terrible defense in RF with Hoffpauir. We won't have terrible defense at first with Hoffpauir. Not to mention like half of our lineup is hitting under 200.

 

As for our pitching. As poor as its been it could be worse. See: Philly.

 

1. Do you expect Carlos Zambrano to continue having an ERA above 4.50? You know with a .337 BABIP? After all his BABIP has never been above .280 in years. His ERA has never been above 4.00 much less 4.50.

 

2. Do you expect Rich Harden to continue having an ERA above 5.00? You know twice his ERA last year. Not to mention he is sporting a 37:14 K:BB and a K/9 of 13.5.

 

3. Do you expect Ryan Dempster to go from a ~3.00 ERA to a ~5.50 ERA overnight?

 

4. Do you expect Carlos Marmol's ERA to be 6 all season and Gregg's to be above 5 all season?

 

If you answered yes for any of questions 1-4, you're most likely going to be dead wrong. Right now almost out entire roster is bottoming out, and we're 10-11. That's pretty good all things considered.

[Mephistopheles]

Sure you can argue regression to Soto and Lee. But not regression to .109/.268/.130/.398 and .189/.253/.284, respectively. Sure our guys will go down at some point, but when our guys go down AND our entire team is under performing to the thousandth degree, that's why we're playing so poorly. Come July when someone goes down, the rest of the team won't be hitting 150.

[kujay]

I think all of these recent threads should be compiled into 1 entiled "The Reasons Our Cobs Will Never Win Anything 2009 Edition"

 

This is starting to remind me of Cards Talk. Not every passing whim someone has needs to be a new thread.

[jersey cubs fan]

For one we won't have terrible defense at third with Fontenot. We won't have terrible defense at 2B with Miles. We won't have terrible defense in RF with Hoffpauir. We won't have terrible defense at first with Hoffpauir. Not to mention like half of our lineup is hitting under 200.

 

As for our pitching. As poor as its been it could be worse. See: Philly.

 

1. Do you expect Carlos Zambrano to continue having an ERA above 4.50? You know with a .337 BABIP? After all his BABIP has never been above .280 in years. His ERA has never been above 4.00 much less 4.50.

 

2. Do you expect Rich Harden to continue having an ERA above 5.00? You know twice his ERA last year. Not to mention he is sporting a 37:14 K:BB and a K/9 of 13.5.

 

3. Do you expect Ryan Dempster to go from a ~3.00 ERA to a ~5.50 ERA overnight?

 

4. Do you expect Carlos Marmol's ERA to be 6 all season and Gregg's to be above 5 all season?

 

If you answered yes for any of questions 1-4, you're most likely going to be dead wrong. Right now almost out entire roster is bottoming out, and we're 10-11. That's pretty good all things considered.

 

That's very much to be determined.

[Mephistopheles]

No it's not.

[dew1679666265]

And one last thing - Who says Bradley, Aram, Soriano, etc are going to stay off the injury report?

 

They may, and if any of those three are out all or most of the year then this team has problems. Bradley should play around 100 games, though, and ARam and Soriano have all had histories of minor injuries, but nothing long-lasting. So season enders are unlikely with them.

 

And ignoring the ice cole starts of other players, then how do you ignore the hot start Fuku had last season, only to fall off the face of the earth?

 

You might say he figured it out.

 

In reply to that, you can argue regression towards Dlee, Soto, etc...

 

I am worried

 

I don't think Kosuke is going to continue to OPS 1.052 through the season. But, he's made some adjustments with his workout schedule so that he's likely to not be as tired later this year. The MLB season is longer and more taxing than a season in Japan and it takes some getting used to.

 

And I've already said that DLee is likely regressing. Will he stick around a .537 OPS all year? Incredibly unlikely. He should improve - I'm expecting somewhere in the .780-.815 range - but I honestly don't know how much he will.

 

As for Soto, he too probably won't hit like he did last year, but again he's not likely at all to OPS .398 all year. If he can get into the mid .700s (.750-.770) then that's decent enough.

 

That's all very conservative expectations and there's a decent chance they're exceeded. Whether they are or not, this team is much better than 75 wins.

 

Keep in mind, with players playing as awfully as they are now, if we keep winning at the pace we are, we'll finish right around 80 wins.

 

That means you're prediction is assuming absolutely no improvement from Soto's .398 OPS, Lee's .537 OPS and Bradley's .627 OPS.

[dew1679666265]

For one we won't have terrible defense at third with Fontenot. We won't have terrible defense at 2B with Miles. We won't have terrible defense in RF with Hoffpauir. We won't have terrible defense at first with Hoffpauir. Not to mention like half of our lineup is hitting under 200.

 

As for our pitching. As poor as its been it could be worse. See: Philly.

 

1. Do you expect Carlos Zambrano to continue having an ERA above 4.50? You know with a .337 BABIP? After all his BABIP has never been above .280 in years. His ERA has never been above 4.00 much less 4.50.

 

2. Do you expect Rich Harden to continue having an ERA above 5.00? You know twice his ERA last year. Not to mention he is sporting a 37:14 K:BB and a K/9 of 13.5.

 

3. Do you expect Ryan Dempster to go from a ~3.00 ERA to a ~5.50 ERA overnight?

 

4. Do you expect Carlos Marmol's ERA to be 6 all season and Gregg's to be above 5 all season?

 

If you answered yes for any of questions 1-4, you're most likely going to be dead wrong. Right now almost out entire roster is bottoming out, and we're 10-11. That's pretty good all things considered.

 

That's very much to be determined.

 

Dempster's last ERA in the neighborhood of 5 was in 2003 with Cincinnati. His highest since then has been 4.80. He may not be great this year, but he's also unlikely to be at a 5.50 ERA.

[Mephistopheles]

comparing KFs hot start this year compared to last years is like comparing Rosie O'Donnell to Marisa Miller in a swimsuit contest. Edited May 1, 2009 by Mephistopheles

[dew1679666265]

comparing KFs hot start this year compared to last years is like comparing Rosie O'Donnell to Marissa Miller in a swimsuit contest.

 

I know his BABIP is 20 points lower so far this year. I'm thinking last year was more of a couple of incredible weeks in April and then not much, whereas this year he's been terrific all month.

 

I'm not sure on that, though.

[Mephistopheles]

he was basically having a high BABIP thanks to seeing eye grounders early last season. This year they're line drive rockets sprayed across the diamond.

[Mephistopheles]

obligatory

 

http://www.topnews.in/light/files/Marisa-Miller_0.jpg

[dew1679666265]

he was basically having a high BABIP thanks to seeing eye grounders early last season. This year they're line drive rockets sprayed across the diamond.

 

Sounds about right.

[Mephistopheles]

his gb% is down from 51% to 35%

[manbearcub]

season over

[dew1679666265]

his gb% is down from 51% to 35%

 

That's an excellent sign. I know you expect him to do well this year, but how good do you expect?

[jersey cubs fan]

For one we won't have terrible defense at third with Fontenot. We won't have terrible defense at 2B with Miles. We won't have terrible defense in RF with Hoffpauir. We won't have terrible defense at first with Hoffpauir. Not to mention like half of our lineup is hitting under 200.

 

As for our pitching. As poor as its been it could be worse. See: Philly.

 

1. Do you expect Carlos Zambrano to continue having an ERA above 4.50? You know with a .337 BABIP? After all his BABIP has never been above .280 in years. His ERA has never been above 4.00 much less 4.50.

 

2. Do you expect Rich Harden to continue having an ERA above 5.00? You know twice his ERA last year. Not to mention he is sporting a 37:14 K:BB and a K/9 of 13.5.

 

3. Do you expect Ryan Dempster to go from a ~3.00 ERA to a ~5.50 ERA overnight?

 

4. Do you expect Carlos Marmol's ERA to be 6 all season and Gregg's to be above 5 all season?

 

If you answered yes for any of questions 1-4, you're most likely going to be dead wrong. Right now almost out entire roster is bottoming out, and we're 10-11. That's pretty good all things considered.

 

That's very much to be determined.

 

Dempster's last ERA in the neighborhood of 5 was in 2003 with Cincinnati. His highest since then has been 4.80. He may not be great this year, but he's also unlikely to be at a 5.50 ERA.

 

Yeah, it's unlikely. I'm not predicting it's going to happen. But those other things are all far outside the norm. Dempster has been inconsistent throughout his career. He's also coming off a much higher workload than is typical. I have no idea how he's going to end.