Lilly is throwing more FBs with less velo.

[UK1679666180]

Ted Lilly is a known student of the game, and one of the lessons he has learned recently is that he can trust his fastball. Lilly took it to the Rockies in his most recent outing, holding Colorado to 1 hit over 6 2/3 innings. He did it with the fastball. Nearly 8 of every 10 pitches he threw Colorado hitters was a heater of some kind, whether it be four-seam, two-seam or cutter.

 

The veteran Lilly has used the fastball for 72 percent of his total pitches this season. That number is way up from previous years despite the fact that his velocity has ratcheted steadily downward. He’s learning to differentiate the speed and direction of his various fastballs, rather than simply airing it out.

 

Lilly's fastball trend

Years Pct. of pitches Avg. velocity (mph) Max. velocity (mph)

2006-----58.1%------- 89.5---------------- 95

2007 ----58.5%-------- 88.2--------------- 96

2008 ----56.0%------- 86.8---------------- 94

2009 ----72.3%------- 85.9---------------- 90

 

Nowhere is his change in strategy more evident than when Lilly has the count advantage. Hitters who fall behind and look off-speed against the experienced lefty should think again. The Rockies went 0-for-15 against his fastball on two-strike counts in his last start. Of the 31 pitches Lilly made with two strikes, 26 were heaters.

 

The trend of utilizing the fastball more when ahead started last September, when Lilly bumped his two-strike heater usage up from 48 percent to 60 percent. The results were outstanding -- opponents were just 1-for-26 (.038 BA) against his two-strike fastballs, with 15 strikeouts.

 

It will be interesting to see what Lilly does in a two-strike situation against Cardinals powerhouses Albert Pujols and Ryan Ludwick. Pujols has already homered twice on two-strike sliders this season, and Ludwick has one homer on a two-strike changeup. See if Ted stays with the heat, and gets them guessing off-speed.

[soapy]

Interesting, Ping. My first thought was that in 2009 he's been pitching to the conditions. First in the game @ HOU because he was staked to a big lead (i.e. with the big lead, focus on throwing strikes). Second was the home opener against COL when the ball wouldn't be expected to carry.

 

Having said that, the data showing that he started this last September puts that conclusion into question. He put up spectacular overall numbers last September (4-0, 1.93 ERA, .146 BAA and 23K/4BB) including that gem against HOU in MIL.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Can anyone find that info broken down for April of previous years for Lilly?

[Soul]

I love that Lilly uses his smarts to remain effective.

 

And I also love posts that point out a pitcher still using his FB effectively even with a lower velocity, and that post doesn't include a "OMG WHAT IS WRONG?!?" type comment.

[wade]

Could some of his pitch selection early this year be due to usage in the WBC, I wonder? Certainly, the September data is interesting and it will be cool to check out the rest of the way.

[mcgoobs]

I should know this but I don't: who calls the pitches when Lilly is pitching? Is it Rothschild or is Soto calling the game?

[bhogg]

Damnit, you let the cat outta the bag!!!! ;)

 

Cool stuff, guy. I like reading this sort of thing. I was a little skeptical of the signing, but it sure has been fun watching Lilly pitch.

[Guest]

Can anyone find that info broken down for April of previous years for Lilly?

 

I don't have any numbers to back this up, but I remember people wondering about the velocity of Lilly's fastball being a couple of mph lower than normal in April last year when he was getting rocked.