Who should I keep?

[Friendly Confines]

I won my 12 team 5X5 league last year, and we have the option of selecting up to 3 keepers. If I don't select any, I will have the last pick of the first three rounds so I am definitely going to select three. Of the possible candidates, I have Pujols, Longoria, Hamilton, Dunn, Webb Halladay, and Harden.

 

Who should I keep?

[Tracer Bullet]

pujols, longoria, webb

[The Logan]

With 12 teams, pitchers will start going in the 3rd round, so I think it would be wise to keep one of either Webb or Halladay. It's your preference on which one you think you should keep, I think Halladay is better, but Webb has a more consistent track record so that may be a wiser choice.

 

But Pujols definitely, obviously, and between Hamilton and Longoria it depends on what you value more, 3B offense or OF offense. Obviously there's more OF available, but they'll go fast. Hamilton is typically a first rounder and Longoria will be a 2nd rounder in a 12 team league.

 

It's a tough decision. Pujols for one definitely, and then one of either Hamilton or Longoria and Webb or Halladay. Don't bother with Dunn or Harden.

 

If it were me, I'd probably keep Pujols, Hamilton, and Webb. Mainly because in large team leagues like that the OF gets kinda sparse after the 3rd round. There's not much elite OF talent left after that. And Webb simply because he's consistently been in the low 3's for ERA, whereas Halladay has been a little erractic over the last few years. Plus Webb ha a better K rate.

[Tracer Bullet]

If you keep Longoria, there might not be "elite" OFs, but you'll have lots of choices to fill in the OF. In a keeper league, if I have the choice between an OF that's about to turn 28 and a 3B that's going to be 23 for the entire year, the OF would have to be significantly better for me to let the young stud 3B go. And that's not the case here.

[CubbieBum]

Pujols is the lock

 

Webb or Halladay: I go Webb easily. He's more consistent, more likely to get wins, and no injury problems.

 

Longoria or Hamilton: This is pretty much a dead even. Both are fine. Hamilton will probably have better overall stats but he is at a position that has a lot more depth. I would look at the other teams and try to figure out which position is likely to have a lot kept. I would then keep whichever one is in the position that is going to be more scarce.

[Friendly Confines]

Yeah I tentatively have Pujols, Hamilton, and Webb but it's basically a sophomore season for both Hamilton and Longoria so they both have risks.

[NCCubFan]

It's not really a sophomore season for Hamilton. He played for the Reds in 2007 and the Rangers last year. So this is more like his third season (he did miss some of 2007 with injuries, but he still played enough that last year can't really be considered his rookie year).

[Friendly Confines]

Yeah I know but I am viewing this year as his second full season

[nilodnayr]

Take a look around your league and see what everyone else is taking. I'm guessing with 3 keepers maybe only 3 pitchers will be taken (Johan, CC, and Lincecum). Those are the top tier. Hamels, Webb, Peavy, Halladay, and Haren are the next tier. Expect those guys to go in the 4th and 5th round. So what you have to ask yourself is if you don't keep a pitcher, can you get a pitcher of similar value in the 4th round. I think the answer is a resounding YES.

 

Now ask yourself if you can get an OF of Hamilton's talent in the 4th round. Maybe Vlad or Markakis drop, but maybe they don't...then you're looking at guys like Ganderson and Rios. Those guys are nowhere near Hamilton.

 

Now ask yourself if you can get a 3B of Longoria's talent in the 4th round. BTW, 3B is insanely shallow this year and definitely in the next few years as well (as Miggy loses eligibility and possibly Youk, Atkins, and Davis). Longoria certainly has some risk as a sophomore and may not help you in average, but with the scarcity of the 3B market, his value increases significantly. The only thing you could hope for is that whoever has ARam doesn't keep him (but ARam ain't gettin any better). Otherwise theres a big dropoff.

 

Take a look at who you think other guys in your league are going to be keeping, but I think its a pretty easy decision to keep Pujols (obviously), Hamilton, and Longoria. If you really like Webb, then go for him in the 4th round, and if hes taken before you then pick one of the handful of pitchers that are just as good as him.

 

I know its a cliche to say don't take pitchers early in fantasy baseball but there are soooooooo many really really good pitchers in rounds 9-14 and some pretty darn good reclamation projects in Escobar, Smoltz, and Carpeter that you can grab at the end of your draft.