PECOTA Weighted Means Spreadsheet

[Mephistopheles]

But seriously, what PECOTA spits out for Jeff Samardzija is irrelevant.

[CubinNY]

But seriously, what PECOTA spits out for Jeff Samardzija is irrelevant.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but what Meph is not attempting to say is that PECOTA doesn't have enough data to make an accurate projection on The Shark.

 

The model is much less accurate for minor leagues and guys with not a lot of PT in the bigs, It's the preverbal "sample size" issue (That's what she said).

[Mephistopheles]

Not exactly, but if that convinces you as to why PECOTA doesn't apply to him, fine. That's not the real reason, but it's close enough. It's like calling a Serbian a Yugoslav.

[Tyrant]

I wasn't sure if he was referring to Shark or the projected standings, or something else. Thanks for clarifying.

[Mephistopheles]

I wasn't sure if he was referring to Shark or the projected standings, or something else. Thanks for clarifying.

 

 

Well we won't hit that either, but that's something else entirely.

[treebird]

the shark doesn't work for pecota because his numbers in the minors don't make any sense, likely because he was working on developing certain pitches. he's also a special case due to his brief pitching history and extensive football concentration.

 

i'm not a huge samardzija fan, but if there was ever a guy whom you couldn't evaluate simply by looking at the numbers, it's jeff.

[TruffleShuffle]

my biggest concern with the cubs' pecota projections is not that it has a lot of guys doing better than i expect, but rather that it projects some guys (soriano, bradley, zambrano, harden) staying a lot more healthy than i expect.

[treebird]

my biggest concern with the cubs' pecota projections is not that it has a lot of guys doing better than i expect, but rather that it projects some guys (soriano, bradley, zambrano, harden) staying a lot more healthy than i expect.

 

agreed. and projecting injuries/playing time is not exactly pecota's strong suit. really, pecota is just telling us what we already know: if everyone stays healthy, including those have horrible injury histories, our team will be amazing. i don't think too many here would disagree with that.

[Tyrant]

Why is every team in the Central projected to hit .260 except for the Cubs?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Why is every team in the Central projected to hit .260 except for the Cubs?

 

 

All the BA, OBP and SLG appear to be rounded to the nearest .01

[Tyrant]

Why is every team in the Central projected to hit .260 except for the Cubs?

All the BA, OBP and SLG appear to be rounded to the nearest .01

 

I see that, but it's still weird that every team in the Central besides the Cubs is projected to hit .260. Did they just pick a random number for the entire division or something?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Why is every team in the Central projected to hit .260 except for the Cubs?

All the BA, OBP and SLG appear to be rounded to the nearest .01

 

I see that, but it's still weird that every team in the Central besides the Cubs is projected to hit .260. Did they just pick a random number for the entire division or something?

 

That just means they all project between .255 and .264. Doesn't seem that weird.

[AlwaysaCub]

871 runs scored is one hell of a projection for this team as currently constructed.

 

they have bradley hitting 290/400/520 in 490 ab and fukudome hitting 290/390/440 in 460 ab.

 

this team is constructed very well if those things happen.

 

That'd be the second most ABs of Bradley's career. I'll be shocked if he comes close to it, but utterly ecstatic.

 

They put in the revised numbers today, still showing the Cubs as scoring 865 runs. This is the most runs any MLB team is projected to score, including Boston and Philadelphia. I really don't see it between the "offense" we are getting from our first baseman and the myriad injury risks in the outfield.

[UMFan83]

PECOTA picks the Cubs to win the Central by 13 games

wow, they have the angels finishing under .500? i know they lost their closer and their first baseman, but that seems a bit much.

 

Their pythag was horrible last year and I'm sure that's a big factor.

[TruffleShuffle]

the AL west is brutal. i remember someone on here saying the NL Central could be won by 80 games, and i think that's ridiculous, but it actually might be true for the AL west. i don't think seattle has much of a chance but i could see any of the other three teams taking it.

 

by the way, how crazy would it be if the rays won 92 games, finished 12 games better than the AL west winner and 8 games better than the AL Central winner, and still missed the playoffs by 5 games?

 

also, toronto has to be the biggest go-nowhere franchise in baseball. it seems like they've been a .500 team since they won the world series, and they're stuck in a division with two franchises that outspend almost everyone else in baseball. plus the rays are really good and young. meanwhile toronto keeps bringing in middle-of-the-road free agents and drafting in the middle of the first round. boring.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I think Toronto would have made some more noise this season had they not had a pitching injury or two. I still think they might challenge for the WC with some luck.

[Geech]

the AL west is brutal. i remember someone on here saying the NL Central could be won by 80 games, and i think that's ridiculous, but it actually might be true for the AL west. i don't think seattle has much of a chance but i could see any of the other three teams taking it.

 

It's true. Billy Beane suddenly doesn't look as crazy.

[TruffleShuffle]

I think Toronto would have made some more noise this season had they not had a pitching injury or two. I still think they might challenge for the WC with some luck.

 

if by luck you mean two of the other good teams in that division being moved to another division then i agree.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I think Toronto would have made some more noise this season had they not had a pitching injury or two. I still think they might challenge for the WC with some luck.

 

if by luck you mean two of the other good teams in that division being moved to another division then i agree.

 

I think you are selling them way short. They were the second best team in the division last year by Pythwins.

[treebird]

I think Toronto would have made some more noise this season had they not had a pitching injury or two. I still think they might challenge for the WC with some luck.

 

if by luck you mean two of the other good teams in that division being moved to another division then i agree.

 

I think you are selling them way short. They were the second best team in the division last year by Pythwins.

 

maybe the red sox will take a (small) step back, but the rays should be the same or better and the yankees should significantly better this year than last.

 

toronto just doesn't have the offense it takes to do anything interesting in that division. they should look into joining forces with the orioles, who have the opposite problem.

[wade]

I just keep drooling over Harden's projections. I'm really trying not to believe he might stay healthy all year.

[TruffleShuffle]

I think Toronto would have made some more noise this season had they not had a pitching injury or two. I still think they might challenge for the WC with some luck.

 

if by luck you mean two of the other good teams in that division being moved to another division then i agree.

 

I think you are selling them way short. They were the second best team in the division last year by Pythwins.

 

since then they lost one of their best starting pitchers to another team in the division. marcum and litsch had anomalously low BABIPs. their defense is very good, but their luck on balls in play isn't likely to repeat itself and it'll be tough to have the highest LOB% in baseball.

 

they'll probably be a little worse this year but more importantly, the yankees have improved, the red sox are still excellent and the devil rays are young, very good and improving.

[The Other 15]

Braun and Longoria have given these types of projections for rookies credence. I'll wager the under on all of Weiters #'s with a slight chance he slugs .540+. Playing catcher in the majors is not the most conducive position to sustain production for the whole season.

[TruffleShuffle]

by the way, bp 2009 comes out in a week! i've got mine on advance order, along with the ba 2009 prospect handbook.

[AlwaysaCub]

I think Toronto would have made some more noise this season had they not had a pitching injury or two. I still think they might challenge for the WC with some luck.

 

if by luck you mean two of the other good teams in that division being moved to another division then i agree.

 

I think you are selling them way short. They were the second best team in the division last year by Pythwins.

 

maybe the red sox will take a (small) step back, but the rays should be the same or better and the yankees should significantly better this year than last.

 

toronto just doesn't have the offense it takes to do anything interesting in that division. they should look into joining forces with the orioles, who have the opposite problem.

 

I could see Toronto pushing through. The Drays, though talented, will regress slightly next year though brighter things are ahead. For Boston I could see several scenarios in which the offense falls off (who says Papi is going to rebound at all? Remember Mo Vaughn). With a few breaks they could then take second. Unlikely, yes, but impossible, no.