Did we overpay for Dempster?

[Monco]

Dempster made mechanical changes for this year, most notably the glove flip. I believe Ping pointed out something else too(maybe with pitch selection) that was different. Statistically, Dempster isn't quite as good as he was last year, but clearly improved from his previous self before making changes. "He's going to regress to career norms, he's never been this good" doesn't quite cut it for me as an explanation without anything else to explain him falling all the way back.

 

Last year he had alot to prove. His 2006 and 2007 seasons weren't that impressive. He was being given the chance to go back to starting in 2008,which has been his preference. It was the last year of his contract and he has a career year. I hope i'm wrong but....

 

You're still making a huge leap without explaining why. You keep saying "career year" like it's some magic cure-all that allows a pitcher to have an Cy Young-sniffing year. I understand why the perception of the "career year" exists, but how would he have just turned it on like he did and then either totally forget all of his changes or, what? Choose to suck or be mediocre because he got paid? What is the thinking here?

 

Players don't choose to be mediocre,or be a free agent bust after they get paid,it just happens (very often).Injuries,complacency,etc. The list of players regressing after getting the big contract is huge. I never said he would go Carl Pavano,but I doubt he will pitch like last year.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Dempster made mechanical changes for this year, most notably the glove flip. I believe Ping pointed out something else too(maybe with pitch selection) that was different. Statistically, Dempster isn't quite as good as he was last year, but clearly improved from his previous self before making changes. "He's going to regress to career norms, he's never been this good" doesn't quite cut it for me as an explanation without anything else to explain him falling all the way back.

 

Last year he had alot to prove. His 2006 and 2007 seasons weren't that impressive. He was being given the chance to go back to starting in 2008,which has been his preference. It was the last year of his contract and he has a career year. I hope i'm wrong but....

 

You're still making a huge leap without explaining why. You keep saying "career year" like it's some magic cure-all that allows a pitcher to have an Cy Young-sniffing year. I understand why the perception of the "career year" exists, but how would he have just turned it on like he did and then either totally forget all of his changes or, what? Choose to suck or be mediocre because he got paid? What is the thinking here?

 

The why matters a lot less than whether or not the phenomenon has been observed.

[cubsfan26]

I never said he would go Carl Pavano,but I doubt he will pitch like last year.

 

 

I don't think anybody expects Dempster to pitch the way he did last year again. I think the Cubs would be happy with a 3.50-4 type era season from him and the Cubs paid him like a number 3 starter. If Dempster is better then that he's gonna be a huge bargin, but he also could be a bust if he's a 4.50s era type pitcher. Personally Dempster showed me enough last year for me to believe it's not a fluke. It's not like the same Ryan Dempster from 2002 was on the mound pitching, or he got lucky. The guy got himself in great shape, he changed his delivery, used different pitches, and other stuff. I also believe he's alot smarter as a pitcher, then he was when he was 21-25 and trying to get hitters out. So I believe this will end up being a good contract at least 2 or 3 years of the deal.

[Sammy Sofa]

Dempster made mechanical changes for this year, most notably the glove flip. I believe Ping pointed out something else too(maybe with pitch selection) that was different. Statistically, Dempster isn't quite as good as he was last year, but clearly improved from his previous self before making changes. "He's going to regress to career norms, he's never been this good" doesn't quite cut it for me as an explanation without anything else to explain him falling all the way back.

 

Last year he had alot to prove. His 2006 and 2007 seasons weren't that impressive. He was being given the chance to go back to starting in 2008,which has been his preference. It was the last year of his contract and he has a career year. I hope i'm wrong but....

 

You're still making a huge leap without explaining why. You keep saying "career year" like it's some magic cure-all that allows a pitcher to have an Cy Young-sniffing year. I understand why the perception of the "career year" exists, but how would he have just turned it on like he did and then either totally forget all of his changes or, what? Choose to suck or be mediocre because he got paid? What is the thinking here?

 

The why matters a lot less than whether or not the phenomenon has been observed.

 

Right, and typically you can find or track reasons for the player's downall. Dempster made it through the year with phenomenal results after making very noticeable changes. He didn't breakdown. He didn't have to rely on luck or be saved by the defense. Obviously, repeating or exceeding last year isn't likely, but people just keep tossing out "career numbers" or "career year" like it negates what he did last year and makes a huge regression all but inevitable with little else to back up such declarative assertions.

[Gingerballs Lives]

Yes, would you give Mike Bielecki, Kent Bottenfield or Carl Pavano big deals?

 

Have you watched Dempster pitch? He's so much better than those guys.

 

I don't understand the people who don't think that Dempster is good. Watch his stuff; it's filthy!

 

He was mis-cast as a reliever and still wasn't terrible. He will continue to put up 15+ win seasons for the Cubs.

 

Wow, a "use your eyes" AND using wins as a measurement in the same post. That was a gritty post.

 

 

You can use any measurement you like, Dempster was awesome last year and it should continue.

 

Remember how awesome Adrian Beltre was in 2004? Man, he was so awesome.

 

Dempster had major surgery and basically switched positions.

 

I don't know what to say, I just think the the 2008 version of Ryan Dempster is who he is. I like the deal a lot.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The why matters a lot less than whether or not the phenomenon has been observed.

 

Right, and typically you can find or track reasons for the player's downall./quote]

 

Honestly, no you can't. It's just people's tendency to rationalize after the fact.

[Monco]

Dempster made mechanical changes for this year, most notably the glove flip. I believe Ping pointed out something else too(maybe with pitch selection) that was different. Statistically, Dempster isn't quite as good as he was last year, but clearly improved from his previous self before making changes. "He's going to regress to career norms, he's never been this good" doesn't quite cut it for me as an explanation without anything else to explain him falling all the way back.

 

Last year he had alot to prove. His 2006 and 2007 seasons weren't that impressive. He was being given the chance to go back to starting in 2008,which has been his preference. It was the last year of his contract and he has a career year. I hope i'm wrong but....

 

You're still making a huge leap without explaining why. You keep saying "career year" like it's some magic cure-all that allows a pitcher to have an Cy Young-sniffing year. I understand why the perception of the "career year" exists, but how would he have just turned it on like he did and then either totally forget all of his changes or, what? Choose to suck or be mediocre because he got paid? What is the thinking here?

 

The why matters a lot less than whether or not the phenomenon has been observed.

 

Right, and typically you can find or track reasons for the player's downall. Dempster made it through the year with phenomenal results after making very noticeable changes. He didn't breakdown. He didn't have to rely on luck or be saved by the defense. Obviously, repeating or exceeding last year isn't likely, but people just keep tossing out "career numbers" or "career year" like it negates what he did last year and makes a huge regression all but inevitable with little else to back up such declarative assertions.

I've seen pitchers like Matt Clement and Mike Morgan make adjustments and string successful seasons together. I've seen others have a great year and then....Players are always making adjustments to fix problems. When success is achieved,the adjustments are credited, justifiably or not. Really we have to wait and see.

[17 Seconds]

Yes, would you give Mike Bielecki, Kent Bottenfield or Carl Pavano big deals?

 

Have you watched Dempster pitch? He's so much better than those guys.

 

I don't understand the people who don't think that Dempster is good. Watch his stuff; it's filthy!

 

He was mis-cast as a reliever and still wasn't terrible. He will continue to put up 15+ win seasons for the Cubs.

 

Wow, a "use your eyes" AND using wins as a measurement in the same post. That was a gritty post.

 

 

You can use any measurement you like, Dempster was awesome last year and it should continue.

 

Remember how awesome Adrian Beltre was in 2004? Man, he was so awesome.

 

Dempster had major surgery and basically switched positions.

 

I don't know what to say, I just think the the 2008 version of Ryan Dempster is who he is. I like the deal a lot.

 

I don't get what you're saying. It's not like Dempster just started for the first time. He started in the majors for 6 straight years and he was awful for 5 of them.

 

I mean, I'm not saying he'll be bad, but expecting him to pitch like last season is just unreasonable. Even the best case scenario has him regressing a bit. I'd say the best you could hope for is a low-mid 3's ERA. I'd expect a high 3's ERA, and I'd be happy with that. Saying "I just think the 2008 version of Dempster is who he is" just mean that you like him and that you want him to be that guy.

[SweetZombieJesus]

Yes, would you give Mike Bielecki, Kent Bottenfield or Carl Pavano big deals?

 

Have you watched Dempster pitch? He's so much better than those guys.

 

I don't understand the people who don't think that Dempster is good. Watch his stuff; it's filthy!

 

He was mis-cast as a reliever and still wasn't terrible. He will continue to put up 15+ win seasons for the Cubs.

 

Is Estaban Loiaza a better comparison?

[TheDude]

Dempster made mechanical changes for this year, most notably the glove flip. I believe Ping pointed out something else too(maybe with pitch selection) that was different. Statistically, Dempster isn't quite as good as he was last year, but clearly improved from his previous self before making changes. "He's going to regress to career norms, he's never been this good" doesn't quite cut it for me as an explanation without anything else to explain him falling all the way back.

 

Overall this thread is annoying as nobody else has bothered to put up the peripherals or mechanics notes that were responsible for his career year. Thanks for bringing this up.

 

I'm tired of gut fortune telling being presented as fact. Use a little analysis occasionally people. His age and career year in the same sentence are irrelevant. Pitchers are not hitters, so don't use a hitters' age curve to analyze a pitcher.

 

Dempster's success last year pretty much boils down to improved control. His success in 2009 and for the life of the contract will depend on his ability to sustain this improved control.

 

His 2008 K/BB and BB/9 were both substantially better than previous years. He did use his slider less in 2008 and his FB more, which could account for greater control. You hear pitching coaches and former pitchers turned announcers say all the time that locating the FB is the key to pitching. Most of his other peripherals were the same as his starter or reliever years prior: K/9, P/PA, P/IP, LD%, FStrike%, etc. His BAA against was down slightly from closer years.

 

You have a relatively flat pitch count, flat strike out rate, flat contact %, but reduced walks and hits. I'm not sure what conclusion anyone could draw from those numbers as a predictor going forward.

 

A glass half-full approach says Dempster was battling in the zone and avoiding solid contact, indicated by his improved BABIP against. Despite his pitch counts, he didn't see a ton of 3-ball counts, and when he did hit 3-0 or 3-1, he usually walked the guy, an indication he wanted pitch primarily when the count favored him. His O-Swing% was higher than years past, so there is some indication hitters were chasing, but it doesn't account for a sustained season's success.

 

A glass-half empty approach says that Dempster could lose the control he gained and return to mediocre, his playoff performance fresh in people's mind. Given the reality that many of peripherals didn't change, you could argue it was fluke season dicated by BABIP against and hitters chasing out of the zone. If that BABIP against returns to norm and the league scouting report says wait for the strike, Dempster likely returns to just an average pitcher.

 

As to the original point of the thread, I don't think he was overpaid. In fact he probably took a hometown discount, but it is difficult to say in the current market. Marquee FAs will get paid, the others won't. Dempster was viewed as marquee by some, a risk by others.

[TheDude]

Yes, would you give Mike Bielecki, Kent Bottenfield or Carl Pavano big deals?

 

Have you watched Dempster pitch? He's so much better than those guys.

 

I don't understand the people who don't think that Dempster is good. Watch his stuff; it's filthy!

 

He was mis-cast as a reliever and still wasn't terrible. He will continue to put up 15+ win seasons for the Cubs.

 

Is Estaban Loiaza a better comparison?

 

No, not at all. Kelvim Escobar is a better comparison. Escobar throws about the same rate of FB and CH as Dempster, and features a wicked slider. Escobar has a couple more pitches than Dempster.

 

Escobar has more sustained success as a starter, but when it comes to stuff, style, peripherals, and age, he is a very similar pitcher to Dempster. Dempster's 2008 looks a whole lot like Escobar's 2007.

[BigbadB]

Dempster's 2008 looks a whole lot like Escobar's 2007.

 

Let's hope Dempster's 2009 looks nothing like Escobar's 2008.