Greene to Cards close

[Mephistopheles]

no, he's a pretty safe bet to hit worse than greene next year, but is he going to be $6 million worse? i'm going to go ahead and doubt that.

 

By my numbers, right now the Cubs are probably a true 88 or so win team. The Cubs probability of getting in the post season with 88 wins is probably 50%, maybe a little higher given the sad state of our division. If the Greene was just a slight upgrade (say 3 wins) over Theriot those 3 wins, probably increase the chances of us getting into the playoffs by 30-40%. The playoff revenue generated by the higher probability is likely to offset the 6 million extra spent....not to mention the 30-40% higher chance of getting into the playoffs...and possibly DOUBLING or TRIPLING our chances of getting a world series win. All for a six million.

[OleMissCub]

-7.1 VORP, 1.5 WARP3. At least his OPS+ wasn't in the negatives...

 

Keep trying to console yourself. It's not going to change the fact that he's probably going to be the best shortstop in the division immediately, if not the entire league.

 

Hanley and Jose wave hello. About a dozen other guys do too.

[Rob]

-7.1 VORP, 1.5 WARP3. At least his OPS+ wasn't in the negatives...

 

Keep trying to console yourself. It's not going to change the fact that he's probably going to be the best shortstop in the division immediately, if not the entire league.

 

Now that's probably an overstatement. Busch 3 isn't the death sentence for extreme flyball hitters that petco is, but it doesn't seem that far behind.

[davearm2]

I understand you're new around here. Read this for my thoughts on Khalil Greene. It's a year old, but hey it doesn't really change much despite the struggles of Greene last season.

The fact that your opinion on Greene hasn't been revised at all in light of what he did in 2008 (especially on the road, where he was supposed to be so amazing) is very telling.

 

And what it tells us is, the person who earlier said it's pointless to debate anything with you is exactly right.

[Mephistopheles]

-7.1 VORP, 1.5 WARP3. At least his OPS+ wasn't in the negatives...

 

Keep trying to console yourself. It's not going to change the fact that he's probably going to be the best shortstop in the division immediately, if not the entire league.

 

Hanley and Jose wave hello. About a dozen other guys do too.

 

Albert Pujols could field shortstop better than Hanely Ramirez. He's the modern day Derek Jeter not named Derek Jeter. Jose Reyes, eh it's quite possible that Greene outdoes him. Likely, no. Realistically possible? yes. A dozen other guys in the league? That's insanely wrong.

[Mephistopheles]

I understand you're new around here. Read this for my thoughts on Khalil Greene. It's a year old, but hey it doesn't really change much despite the struggles of Greene last season.

The fact that your opinion on Greene hasn't been revised at all in light of what he did in 2008 (especially on the road, where he was supposed to be so amazing) is very telling.

 

And what it tells us is, the person who earlier said it's pointless to debate anything with you is exactly right.

 

I didn't say that my opinion on Greene hasn't changed. I merely said that the analysis there of what he's capable of is still valid. He's risky, but the potential for an .850 OPS is still there. The probability that he hits that mark, has decreased. I've made no mention that it hasn't.

 

All 2008 did was make him a riskier asset. The potential payout is still quite high. There really wasn't all that much risk before. Now there is. His overall value because of it, has decreased...but at the same time his trade market value has bottomed out because most GMs aren't forward thinkers. While his actual value has decreased, it hasn't decreased nearly as much relative to his perceived value. That's why he's a good move. That's why the Cardinals have routinely been able to match our performance, or better it, over the last decade or so - normally with a lower payroll.

Edited December 4, 2008 by Mephistopheles

[davearm2]

no, he's a pretty safe bet to hit worse than greene next year, but is he going to be $6 million worse? i'm going to go ahead and doubt that.

 

By my numbers, right now the Cubs are probably a true 88 or so win team. The Cubs probability of getting in the post season with 88 wins is probably 50%, maybe a little higher given the sad state of our division. If the Greene was just a slight upgrade (say 3 wins) over Theriot those 3 wins, probably increase the chances of us getting into the playoffs by 30-40%. The playoff revenue generated by the higher probability is likely to offset the 6 million extra spent....not to mention the 30-40% higher chance of getting into the playoffs...and possibly DOUBLING or TRIPLING our chances of getting a world series win. All for a six million.

Three wins isn't a slight upgrade. That's a large upgrade. In fact the probability of it is probably pretty small, and there's a higher probability that Greene is either no improvement or worse than Theriot (as he was in 08 by a large margin).

[OleMissCub]

A dozen other guys in the league? That's insanely wrong.

 

True, it's not like he was statistically the worst starting SS in the National League last year; Omar Vizquel was.

 

15th out of 16 isn't so bad.

[Mephistopheles]

Three wins was just a number used to illustrate my point. Even 1 win at 88 wins is worth well over $7 million dollars. My point still stands.

 

Again, what Greene did last year isn't all that important. You can't use it to say he's worse than 14 SSs in the league.

[Rob]

I kinda like Stephen Drew for next year.

[OleMissCub]

Congrats Meph, they are quoting you over at Gateway :-)

 

http://gatewayredbirds.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=32215&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=55

[NonProfitCow]

A dozen other guys in the league? That's insanely wrong.

 

True, it's not like he was statistically the worst starting SS in the National League last year; Omar Vizquel was.

 

15th out of 16 isn't so bad.

Why is last year the end all be all?

[NonProfitCow]

Congrats Meph, they are quoting you over at Gateway :-)

 

http://gatewayredbirds.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=32215&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=55

That was me, in response to a question earlier in the thread.

[Mephistopheles]

Gee didn't Meph used to post there?

[OleMissCub]

WTF, TT has over 4,000 posts at Gateway?

[NonProfitCow]

Gee didn't Meph used to post there?

No, but Asmodai did.

[OleMissCub]

Why is last year the end all be all?

 

It's not. I just like watching a stats guy defend someone with a negative VORP that is being paid 5 million+

[Rob]

Why is last year the end all be all?

 

It's not. I just like watching a stats guy defend someone with a negative VORP that is being paid 5 million+

 

It's not that hard. Everything that made him a good risk before this season is still there... it's just somewhat less likely to manifest after last year.

[NonProfitCow]

Why is last year the end all be all?

 

It's not. I just like watching a stats guy defend someone with a negative VORP that is being paid 5 million+

It's not very hard. He's a + defender that has hit better than league average for a shortstop in all but one year. And he plays half his games at PetCo.

[Mephistopheles]

Greene's season last year was inexplicable. It just doesn't make sense. There's really no explanation unless he tried to play the entire time with a hidden wrist injury or something like that. There's struggling, and there's struggling.

[NonProfitCow]

Greene's season last year was inexplicable. It just doesn't make sense. There's really no explanation unless he tried to play the entire time with a hidden wrist injury or something like that. There's struggling, and there's struggling.

I think he had what would just be a bad year most of the time, coupled with PetCo and playing on a god awful team.

[Rob]

Greene's season last year was inexplicable. It just doesn't make sense. There's really no explanation unless he tried to play the entire time with a hidden wrist injury or something like that. There's struggling, and there's struggling.

 

It's not that hard to explain.

 

LD% - 20.6

BABIP - .255

[OleMissCub]

Why is last year the end all be all?

 

It's not. I just like watching a stats guy defend someone with a negative VORP that is being paid 5 million+

It's not very hard. He's a + defender that has hit better than league average for a shortstop in all but one year. And he plays half his games at PetCo.

 

I'm aware of all this. I know he's extremely talented and likely hasn't forgotten how to ball, but my god, there's no excuse for his production last year.

[cubsfan26]

Greene's season last year was inexplicable. It just doesn't make sense. There's really no explanation unless he tried to play the entire time with a hidden wrist injury or something like that. There's struggling, and there's struggling.

I think he had what would just be a bad year most of the time, coupled with PetCo and playing on a god awful team.

 

Or maybe Greene just lost it and is going to suck now. Thats why people who predict guys stats year after year are usually wrong. Greene could bounce back and it could be a great trade for the Cardinals, but If Greene hits 230 with a 650-680 OPS at 6.5m it's an awful trade. It's a gamble, but when there weren't really many other good SS options unless you wanted to pay alot, it's not a bad gamble. If the Cardinals had Ryan Theriot, I don't think they make this trade though. So saying this is way the Cardinals are smart, and were dumb doesn't make alot of sense to me.

Edited December 4, 2008 by cubsfan26

[davearm2]

Why is last year the end all be all?

 

It's not. I just like watching a stats guy defend someone with a negative VORP that is being paid 5 million+

 

It's not that hard. Everything that made him a good risk before this season is still there... it's just somewhat less likely to manifest after last year.

Well if the argument is, Greene's ceiling still is still X despite his 2008, that's fine. It's kind of a silly way to view the situation though, but sure, his ceiling hasn't changed.

 

A better way to view the situation would be to consider how his expected level of production has changed (or even better, how the frequency distribution of a range of output levels now looks). That expectation had sure better be taking a big hit, and that frequency distribution had better be shifting left. Simply saying the tail of the distribution (i.e., Greene's ceiling) hasn't moved doesn't tell us a whole lot.