BA's 2008 FSL Top 20 Prospects

[CaliforniaRaisin]

One Cub made it from the FSL champs:

 

1. Rick Porcello, rhp, Lakeland (Tigers)

2. J.P. Arencibia, c, Dunedin (Blue Jays)

3. Logan Morrison, 1b, Jupiter (Marlins)

4. Jeremy Jeffress, rhp, Brevard County (Brewers)

5. Adrian Cardenas, 2b, Clearwater (Phillies)

6. Jeremy Hellickson, rhp, Vero Beach (Rays)

7. Sean West, lhp, Jupiter (Marlins)

8. Wilson Ramos, c, Fort Myers (Twins)

9. Scott Cousins, of, Jupiter (Marlins)

10. Michael Taylor, of, Clearwater (Phillies)

11. Todd Frazier, ss/3b, Sarasota (Reds)

12. Drew Stubbs, of, Sarasota (Reds)

13. Chris Valaika, ss, Sarasota (Reds)

14. Jose Ceda, rhp, Daytona (Cubs)

15. Juan Francisco, 3b, Sarasota (Reds)

16. Taylor Green, 3b, Brevard County (Brewers)

17. Cale Iorg, ss, Lakeland (Tigers)

18. Francisco Samuel, rhp, Palm Beach (Cardinals)

19. Jonathan Lucroy, c, Brevard County (Brewers)

20. Zach McAllister, rhp, Tampa (Yankees)

 

14. Jose Ceda, rhp, Daytona (Cubs)

 

B-T: R-R Ht.: 6-4 Wt.: 275 Age: 21 Signed: Dominican Republic '04

 

Ceda did nothing to dissuade the Lee Smith comparisons he brought with him to the FSL. His numbers in Daytona weren't impressive, but that's largely a sign that he's not a starter. The Cubs knew that but put him in the rotation so he'd be forced to work on his secondary pitches, command and mental approach.

 

Ceda's fastball sits at 95-97 mph and touches 100. He also has a power slider that can be unhittable at times. He threw a changeup as a starter, but he junked it when he moved back to the bullpen in June and he won't need it as a big league reliever.

 

He sometimes hooks his arm in the back of his motion, which affects his command, but Ceda sharpened his mechanics once he moved back to the bullpen. His massive size and conditioning concerns shouldn't be as much of a problem for a reliever. He still gets rattled at times, but it's just a matter of his maturity catching up to his fastball. He still projects to be a big league closer.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/rankings/league-top-20-prospects/2008/266934.html

[Guest]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/chat.php?id=2008092901

 

Chat starts at 1 pm CT. Flood 'em with questions. Eventually they'll answer a question about Jay Jackson, no?

[Outshined_One]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/chat.php?id=2008092901

 

Chat starts at 1 pm CT. Flood 'em with questions. Eventually they'll answer a question about Jay Jackson, no?

 

Believe me, I've tried. :(

[Guest]

Q: Carl from Gilbert, AZ asks:

Relief pitchers are a dime a dozen - and a lot of major league relievers were solid starters in the minor leagues who transition to the bullpen because they never fully develop a third pitch. So how can relief prospects like Ceda and Samuel be ahead of McAllister, a 20 year old starter, with three pitches, a low BB%, a decent K%, and an above avereage GB%?

 

A: J.J. Cooper: Check out the answer to this question and the next one for proof that it's not possible to please everybody. The reason both of them rank ahead of McAllister is because their stuff is significantly better. It's true that relievers are often failed starters, but both Ceda and Samuel have elite stuff. McAllister profiles most likely as a No. 4, although a very good No. 4 and he could end up as a No. 3.

 

Q: Jeff from NoCal asks:

Ceda's ranking (14) seems quite lowfor a future closer with his 2 plus pitches....is this due to his lack of performance with Daytona as a SP or is this league loaded with top prospects? Also, how close were Tony Thomas and Lalli to the list?

 

A: J.J. Cooper: I can't see ranking Ceda any higher than that. He does have two plus pitches, but he still has some issues with keeping in shape and some minor issues with his mechanics. Guys liked Thomas at the plate, but weren't as thrilled with his work at second base. He would be in the 30-40 range if the list had gone that deep. Lalli did have an impressive year at the plate, but as a 25-year-old in the FSL, he was too old for the league.

 

Q: Jill from Moline, IL asks:

J.J., Where would Jay Jackson have placed if he qualified and your thoughts on his future ?

 

A: J.J. Cooper: It's hard to say where he would have ranked as I didn't get a lot of different opinions on him since he was in Daytona for just a couple of outings, but early reports were good. Good 91-93 mph fastball, slider, and changeup that allowed him to overwhelm guys. Like most young pitchers he needs to develop command but he does have decent control already.

 

Q: Tom from Chicago asks:

Didn't the Daytona Cubs win the title? Where is your love for the winning players?

 

A: J.J. Cooper: Seeing which teams win minor league titles is one of the least effective ways of projecting future big leaguers. The Cubs had several older players put up very good years, which is good for winning an FSL title, but doesn't help make the Top 20 list as we try to project future potential.

 

And a question about a former top Cubs prospect:

 

Q: Jason from Omaha, NE asks:

I know Dunedin's Brian Dopirak was a bit old for the FSL, but he did put up quite impressive numbers, especially considering he'd been hurt during the last two seasons with the Cubs organization. How close did he come to making the Top 20?

 

A: J.J. Cooper: He didn't come close to making the top 20, as the fact that he was taking his fourth tour of the Florida State League is a giant flashing warning light, but Dopirak did show that the power that once made him a great prospect is still there. I still think there's reason for a lot of skepticism, but he earned himself a chance to show he can do it in Double-A next year.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/rankings/league-top-20-prospects/2008/266939.html

[Guest]

ITI had a premium article on Jay Jackson here: http://cubs.scout.com/2/795745.html

 

It's premium so I won't quote it but there are some interesting tidbits in there:

 

• The development of both his FBs are one of the main reasons he's improved. He had a lot of good coaching on those pitches in the Great Lakes Summer Collegiate League.
  
• In the minors this year, he threw 90-95 with that slider that everyone raves about. He also used a curve and change. Feels his curve has caught up a lot but his slider is still his best off speed pitch.
  
• Daytona pitching coach David Rosario called his slider "overpowering."
  
• His goals for the offseason are to increase the velo on his FB, continue to hone" his off-speed pitches and improve his mechanics.
  
• Tim Wilken said the Cubs were looking for more athletic pitchers this year in the draft and Jay Jackson is one example of that.

[Mephistopheles]

Athletic college pitching: The secret of the Oakland A's.