JAY JACKSON

[CaliforniaRaisin]

ITI had a nice piece on him: link.

 

“I still need to get my velocity up a little bit [on my fastball], but ... it’s getting the job done, so I can’t be too picky,” Jackson said recently.

 

...

 

His repertoire includes a fastball (90-93 mph) and sharp slider.

 

“Jackson has a breaking ball that he can overmatch a guy with, and that combined with his fastball, he can punch someone out any time,” Cubs pitching coach David Rosario said.

 

...

 

“His breaking ball has a lot of quality, and hopefully we’re developing him as a minor league player because he’s got a major league arm,” said Rosario.

 

He makes it sound like he should be throwing harder than low 90s.

[craig]

Thanks for the notes, cal. I got a 3rd-hand scouting report that agreed he threw in low 90's, but suggested that he can touch faster than that, and that he gets into the low 90's pretty easily. So perhaps he's being realistic, that he's got more in him and may throw harder more consistently future?

 

Anyway, I thought that was pretty encouraging, a guy can go a long way with low 90's, good control, and a sharp slider that can overpower you at any time.

 

We've had 8th round types before who pitched pretty well, but were somewhat limited guys whose stuff didn't work up the ladder. I don't get the impression that Jackson profiles as a guy who's already hit his ceiling, or has a fringy arm or fringy stuff.

[Brett]

I know it's a tough question to answer, but I wonder why he slipped to where he did in the draft. He wasn't an over-slot type that wasn't expected to sign, right?

[Guest]

I know it's a tough question to answer, but I wonder why he slipped to where he did in the draft. He wasn't an over-slot type that wasn't expected to sign, right?

 

Nope. He received a $90,000 bonus, which is less than the average for all the ninth round picks this year.

[Mephistopheles]

To be fair, several people were surprised he slid as much as he did. Anyways he's been a two way player his entire life and has tons of athleticism, good size and quick arm action. There's no reason he shouldn't be able to gain a little more on his fastball as he develops and concentrates on pitching.

[badnews]

They emphasize his breaking pitch much more than his fastball, which makes me wonder if this is a case of the trick slider that leads to gaudy K/9 rates in the minors (Jermaine Van Buren, Josh Sharpless, Steve Andrade) but no major league success.

 

Sharpless had a pretty neat looking slider but once you saw it enough it could be adjusted to.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

They emphasize his breaking pitch much more than his fastball, which makes me wonder if this is a case of the trick slider that leads to gaudy K/9 rates in the minors (Jermaine Van Buren, Josh Sharpless, Steve Andrade) but no major league success.

 

Sharpless had a pretty neat looking slider but once you saw it enough it could be adjusted to.

 

Most draft-time publications liked Jackson because he was a 4 pitch pitcher, and to my memory didn't really single out any of them as a wipeout pitch that would stand out like you describe.

[craig]

1. meph mentioned good size, but he lists at only 6'1". That probably worked against him in draft. Drafters prefer 6'3"+ types, and often assume 6'1" types aren't durable enough for rotation.

 

2. As badnews notes, the slider seems to be the signature. Draft reports did not so note, and his college results didn't show the spectacular K rates. I assume the slider got better. At draft, he was viewed as a shortish guy with neither a signature fastball or a signature breaking pitch. Now he's got a knockout slider. The disconnect between his pro results and his draft status is the difference the development of a killer slider makes. (The appearance of an effective splitter had a simillar effect for Samardz in going from AA to AAA.)

 

3. badnews notes that the number of guys whose breaking ball succeeds in minors but not in majors is multitude. (Smarter hitters, better scouting, hitters get more familiar, etc..) That happens. But there are also plenty of useful major leaguers who live on the slider, and may not have any other asset pitches. Obviously that depends on how good the slider is, and how good the fastball is (average, slightly above average, way below average, etc...) Wuertz had several useful years with nothing even close to average to support his plus slider. Time will tell how good Jackson's slider really is: good for A-ball but big-league pedestrian, or really good even at big-league level. badnews is absolutely right that since the standards of slider excellence are way lower in A-ball than in the NL, his slider might not be enough. But maybe it really will be a plus-plus pitch, even relative to big-league sliders?

 

Same for fastball and control; good enough against bad A-ballers so that he can throw strikes, get into 2-strike K-counts, avoid walks, and not get punished? But will the same fastballs he's throwing for strikes and for count-control in A-ball be big-league HR-fodder? Or is the fastball fast enough and with enough corner control so that it's likely to be workable even in majors?

 

We'll see. His window of excellence has been pretty short. He may never recapture the magic that he had this summer, and even if he does it may not be enough to be useful in the majors without additional improvement. No sure thing. But I admit I'm pretty interested, and think he's got a decent shot to become a useable reliever, and possibly even more. The number of K's he's gotten suggests he's got a pretty good slider. And the low number of walks suggests that either his control can be pretty good. or else he has enough life on his fastball that he doesn't need to paint the corners with it.

 

4. Meph already notes that from the start it seemed a surprise he'd slipped that far. Perhaps he could have been almost as easily taken in round 4. But I wonder if he lost the benefit of some doubt in that perhaps some drafters wondered if he was serious or committed? I thought I heard that he's kind of a carefree, happy-go-lucky, joke it up kind of guy. Not sure if that's true, but I wonder if some drafters weren't sure he had the work habits and the drive and intensity that they tend to like?