Does this team have a power problem?

[UMFan83]

I was thinking about this as I watched Carlos Quinten slug his 27th home run followed by Jermaine Dye slugging his 23rd. Does this team have a problem with a lack of power? I think the thing about this offense is, they have a lot of good hitters, but no great hitters. Here are some numbers to chew on

 

Home Runs:

Leader: Howard, 30

Cubs leader: Ramirez, 18 (36th in MLB)

 

SLG:

Leader: Berkman .626

Cubs leader: Soto, .497 (45th in MLB)

 

OPS:

Leader: Berkman 1.063

Cubs leader: Soto .851 (45th in MLB)

 

Again in all 3 of these categories there are a bunch of people right behind them. In HRs, Soto has 17, Lee has 16, Soriano has 15. In SLG, Lee has a .490, Ramirez a .488. In OPS, Lee has an .850, etc etc. The one thing this offense lacks is that one dominant middle of the order hitter that puts fear into the heart of the other team. The Brewers have Braun, the Phillies have Utley, the Cardinals have Pujols, we have...Soto? Now look at the team numbers

 

TEAM HRs:

Leader: Florida 144

Cubs: 117 (7th in MLB)

 

TEAM SLG:

Leader: Texas .457

Cubs: .441 (5th in MLB)

 

TEAM OPS:

Leader: Texas .808

Cubs: .796 (3rd in MLB, 1st in NL)

 

I realize that Lee, Ramirez and Soriano (who I didn't include in those numbers because he doesn't qualify..he has a .526 SLG and a .849 OPS) have all had that status in their careers, but none of them are getting it done this year. To be in late July and seeing that the Cubs top hitter has an .851 OPS, frankly scares me. Again, statistically we have a lot of good hitters, but are missing a great one. Thoughts?

Edited July 27, 2008 by UMFan83

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

While our big hitters aren't in the stratosphere as other teams, we have a much deeper line-up.

 

Right now, we're scuffling so everyone is aware of where we don't measure up.

 

Our 3-5 hitters may not be as dangerous as many teams, but most teams don't have the power that we have in the 6-8 spots.

[TruffleShuffle]

The Brewers have Braun, the Phillies have Utley, the Cardinals have Pujols

 

the phillies also have ryan howard.

 

but what do these guys all have in common? they're playing for the teams that drafted them. true middle of the order beasts very rarely hit the free agent market; they're either locked up by the clubs that drafted them, or they're traded (miguel cabrera) to a team that signs them to a long-term deal. if the cubs want a guy like that, they're going to have to improve their draft/development program - either to produce one or produce the talent needed to trade for one.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Let's not put Braun in the same category as Utley or Pujols. The Cubs have 3 hitters who are every bit as good as him.

[IheartMBnDL]

I also think we have the potential to be a powerful team... but when no one can stay healthy, it's hard for them to go and shine.

[UMFan83]

Let's not put Braun in the same category as Utley or Pujols. The Cubs have 3 hitters who are every bit as good as him.

 

.919 OPS going into today (and his HR today just made that higher), and .963 career OPS. .580 SLG this year. He may not have the best patience at the plate but he's definitely a class above our best hitters. Not a big class above but a class above nonetheless

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Let's not put Braun in the same category as Utley or Pujols. The Cubs have 3 hitters who are every bit as good as him.

 

.919 OPS going into today (and his HR today just made that higher), and .963 career OPS. .580 SLG this year. He may not have the best patience at the plate but he's definitely a class above our best hitters. Not a big class above but a class above nonetheless

 

Braun is Soriano without the ginormous contract. His OPS is that high because he's in the midst of a Soriano-like hot streak. Don't be tricked into opinions about the true talent level of players because a couple of our guys are in a slump.

[TruffleShuffle]

Let's not put Braun in the same category as Utley or Pujols. The Cubs have 3 hitters who are every bit as good as him.

 

really? i'd sure like those .315 EqA hitters to reveal themselves, because my eye only sees one guy - and that was just for one season of a 10-year career.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Let's not put Braun in the same category as Utley or Pujols. The Cubs have 3 hitters who are every bit as good as him.

 

really? i'd sure like those .315 EqA hitters to reveal themselves, because my eye only sees one guy - and that was just for one season of a 10-year career.

 

Braun's not a .315 EqA guy either, he's probably a little under .300, just like Lee, Ramirez, and to a lesser extent Soriano.

[TruffleShuffle]

Let's not put Braun in the same category as Utley or Pujols. The Cubs have 3 hitters who are every bit as good as him.

 

really? i'd sure like those .315 EqA hitters to reveal themselves, because my eye only sees one guy - and that was just for one season of a 10-year career.

 

Braun's not a .315 EqA guy either, he's probably a little under .300, just like Lee, Ramirez, and to a lesser extent Soriano.

 

well you're going to have a tough time "under .300" assertion with anything other than b.s., since he was at .325 last year, .305 this year, he's not even reached his peak years and his PECOTA projections have him between .305 and .310 for the next several years.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Braun's 2007 is skewed by his flukish LHP split(wonder of wonders, he's not OPSing 1.480 against them this year). This year we're seeing his numbers at the pinnacle of a hot stretch(around a 1.200 OPS the last two weeks, around 1.400 in the last week). His OPS was under .850 less than a month ago, and under .875 under 2 weeks ago. I'm not saying he's a sub .850 guy, but I'm saying he's probably not the .925 or whatever he's at right now.

[TruffleShuffle]

Braun's 2007 is skewed by his flukish LHP split(wonder of wonders, he's not OPSing 1.480 against them this year). This year we're seeing his numbers at the pinnacle of a hot stretch(around a 1.200 OPS the last two weeks, around 1.400 in the last week). His OPS was under .850 less than a month ago, and under .875 under 2 weeks ago. I'm not saying he's a sub .850 guy, but I'm saying he's probably not the .925 or whatever he's at right now.

 

well okay, you can call it flukish, but i'll trust his pecota comps, .947 minor league OPS and .963 major league OPS. plus he's 24 years old.

 

also, can you stop taking hot streaks out of a guy's production and discounting them as flukes? you did this with theriot too; said his hot month last season was a fluke because all his other months weren't that good. hot streaks and cold streaks are part of any baseball player's profile; you can't just remove them to fit your argument.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

also, can you stop taking hot streaks out of a guy's production and discounting them as flukes? you did this with theriot too; said his hot month last season was a fluke because all his other months weren't that good. hot streaks and cold streaks are part of any baseball player's profile; you can't just remove them to fit your argument.

 

I didn't remove anything. In fact I specifically said "I'm not saying he's a sub .850 guy". My point is that with two months of the season left to play, making declarative statements about the level of players can be deceiving, especially when they are as hot as Braun is right now, or as cold as Ramirez has been. I mean, Ramirez's GPA has been at least on par with 2008 Braun's(even including his great run right now) for each of the last 4 years. Do you really want to make the argument that Ramirez is no longer at that level because he had a terrible slump in the last month?

[TruffleShuffle]

also, can you stop taking hot streaks out of a guy's production and discounting them as flukes? you did this with theriot too; said his hot month last season was a fluke because all his other months weren't that good. hot streaks and cold streaks are part of any baseball player's profile; you can't just remove them to fit your argument.

 

I didn't remove anything. In fact I specifically said "I'm not saying he's a sub .850 guy". My point is that with two months of the season left to play, making declarative statements about the level of players can be deceiving, especially when they are as hot as Braun is right now, or as cold as Ramirez has been. I mean, Ramirez's GPA has been at least on par with 2008 Braun's(even including his great run right now) for each of the last 4 years. Do you really want to make the argument that Ramirez is no longer at that level because he had a terrible slump in the last month?

 

no, but ramirez' performance is below where it has been the last four years. braun's recent hot streak has brought his performance up to what would be consistent with his play last year and his minor league ability.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

no, but ramirez' performance is below where it has been the last four years. braun's recent hot streak has brought his performance up to what would be consistent with his play last year and his minor league ability.

 

If you had made this evaluation a month ago, Ramirez was right where Braun is now(to speak nothing of where Braun was a month ago, or of the fact that Ramirez has done this for the four previous seasons). But Braun is a "middle of the order beast" and Ramirez isn't?

[TruffleShuffle]

no, but ramirez' performance is below where it has been the last four years. braun's recent hot streak has brought his performance up to what would be consistent with his play last year and his minor league ability.

 

If you had made this evaluation a month ago, Ramirez was right where Braun is now(to speak nothing of where Braun was a month ago, or of the fact that Ramirez has done this for the four previous seasons). But Braun is a "middle of the order beast" and Ramirez isn't?

 

yes, because ryan braun is a better hitter than aramis ramirez.

[TruffleShuffle]

also while we're talking about middle of the order beasts on contending teams, david wright.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

no, but ramirez' performance is below where it has been the last four years. braun's recent hot streak has brought his performance up to what would be consistent with his play last year and his minor league ability.

 

If you had made this evaluation a month ago, Ramirez was right where Braun is now(to speak nothing of where Braun was a month ago, or of the fact that Ramirez has done this for the four previous seasons). But Braun is a "middle of the order beast" and Ramirez isn't?

 

yes, because ryan braun is a better hitter than aramis ramirez.

 

I give up then.

[TruffleShuffle]

no, but ramirez' performance is below where it has been the last four years. braun's recent hot streak has brought his performance up to what would be consistent with his play last year and his minor league ability.

 

If you had made this evaluation a month ago, Ramirez was right where Braun is now(to speak nothing of where Braun was a month ago, or of the fact that Ramirez has done this for the four previous seasons). But Braun is a "middle of the order beast" and Ramirez isn't?

 

yes, because ryan braun is a better hitter than aramis ramirez.

 

I give up then.

 

okay, probably should've given up about 10 posts ago considering the mountain of evidence you were trying to climb.

[Little Slide Rooter]

The thing that gave the Cubs so much succes early on is that maybe aside from Soto, no one player is the best hitter in his position, but the fact that we had so much solidity and production all the way down the lineup. There wasnt a single easy out in the 1-8, and when Z was pitching 1-9. Now, you have about 7-9 easy outs pretty much every game.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

haha, how obnoxious and unnecessary

[imb]

yes, because ryan braun is a better hitter than aramis ramirez.

 

how can you argue with this evidence

[TruffleShuffle]

yes, because ryan braun is a better hitter than aramis ramirez.

 

how can you argue with this evidence

 

since he was at .325 last year, .305 this year, he's not even reached his peak years and his PECOTA projections have him between .305 and .310 for the next several years.

 

ARam's EqA the past four years, by the way: .307, .302, .292, .294

 

i'm just saying, either braun is a better hitter than ARam, or you're assuming that his minor league and major league performances are both flukes, and his PECOTA projections are too high.

[imb]

yes, because ryan braun is a better hitter than aramis ramirez.

 

how can you argue with this evidence

 

since he was at .325 last year, .305 this year, he's not even reached his peak years and his PECOTA projections have him between .305 and .310 for the next several years.

 

ARam's EqA the past four years, by the way: .307, .302, .292, .294

 

i'm just saying, either braun is a better hitter than ARam, or you're assuming that his minor league and major league performances are both flukes, and his PECOTA projections are too high.

 

i think he probably is too, but it's not so clear cut that i'd be comfortable acting really pompous about it while ramirez is in a huge slump and braun is in the streak of his life

[TruffleShuffle]

i think he probably is too, but it's not so clear cut that i'd be comfortable acting really pompous about it while ramirez is in a huge slump and braun is in the streak of his life

 

well i think it's very clear cut, though this is a cubs board and i suspect that there will be enough homers that disagree with me. anyway, i've presented my argument, so i'll leave it up to the reader to decide.